Voting Gauntlet: Bunny Battle Ballot!

[Johann]

26 minutes ago, XRay said:

I hope the developers do not actually intend the battle to be challenging, because if they do, then they might patch it! I want the battles to be as easy as pie. It would be super frustrating to miss the multiplier because you failed the battle.

Considering they made it so you can rematch immediately after losing a fight, I don't think they care all that much. It's almost more like a "see how cool your friends' characters are" mode and 1 minute delay before you can actually use your flags. Also orb quests.

[Rafiel's Aria]

6 hours ago, LordFrigid said:

Yeah, I've been seeing pretty meh randos. My best guess is that it has something to do with low merge level and/or skill set investment. The enemies are usually pretty meh as well and get stomped by the +10 friend unit.

 

3 hours ago, XRay said:

Maybe it is on purpose so that you friend weaker players and help them out? I do not recall ever getting a random ally that is better than my own unit. Even when I field my 5*+10 BH!Lyn or Reinhardt, my random allies were at best at around 5*+5 to +7 that are semi built with budget skills.

I usually just field level 1 units and let my friend list ally do the fighting.

I don't think I've ever gotten amazing random allies in these things, but this time around, the sub-par allies feel pretty noticeable. My Lucina's only got Swift Sparrow and Swordbreaker 2 on her, but she's leveled up all the way. I'm not sure why the game would keep matching me up with like...level 30 4 star Serras. Very rarely do I have the unit I'm supporting super built. Actually, I think my Lucina has more SI than my Ryoma, and I can't recall having wonky allies during the NY v. Christmas gauntlet. 

My friend allies usually do all the heavy lifting, and with the new system, it doesn't really matter since you can just reset matches over and over again. But it is strange...

[thecrimsonflash]

7 hours ago, Rafiel's Aria said:

 

I don't think I've ever gotten amazing random allies in these things, but this time around, the sub-par allies feel pretty noticeable. My Lucina's only got Swift Sparrow and Swordbreaker 2 on her, but she's leveled up all the way. I'm not sure why the game would keep matching me up with like...level 30 4 star Serras. Very rarely do I have the unit I'm supporting super built. Actually, I think my Lucina has more SI than my Ryoma, and I can't recall having wonky allies during the NY v. Christmas gauntlet. 

My friend allies usually do all the heavy lifting, and with the new system, it doesn't really matter since you can just reset matches over and over again. But it is strange...

yeah, I'm feeling it to, it seems like anyone not from my friend list is unbuilt or is using base skills only on units who need SI more than any.

[Zapp Branniglenn]

PSA: The arena season ends soon. Finish those quests for flags!

Whenever it's Same Hell when I go to sleep and Same Hell upon waking up, I wonder how many multipliers I missed.

Edited April 9, 2018 by Glennstavos

[Nanima]

I feel so frustrated right now. I'll have to go to bed in two hours, and I foolishly saved up my flags after we excited same hell for a brief period, thinking it was over now. I doubt Kagerou is going to get another mutliplier I can participate in, which means my rank will be abysmal once again. I really didn't get much out of this VG.

Fingers crossed that somehow Kagerou will have a multiplier in the final hours (where I am awake again) for the sweet sweet points..

[Raven]

29 minutes ago, Nanima said:

I feel so frustrated right now. I'll have to go to bed in two hours, and I foolishly saved up my flags after we excited same hell for a brief period, thinking it was over now. I doubt Kagerou is going to get another mutliplier I can participate in, which means my rank will be abysmal once again. I really didn't get much out of this VG.

Fingers crossed that somehow Kagerou will have a multiplier in the final hours (where I am awake again) for the sweet sweet points..

Kagero will probably get a bonus in 1 hour and 30 minutes from now, after Lucina's bonus in 30 minutes.

[Nanima]

3 minutes ago, Raven said:

Kagero will probably get a bonus in 1 hour and 30 minutes from now, after Lucina's bonus in 30 minutes.

Well, who needs sleep anyway...

[mampfoid]

Some multipliers at last. I need to get rid of my flags before to go to bed. 

[Javi Blizz]

I’ve made some maths and I’m going to start using flags without multipliers. It’s that or just not using it because I’ll go to bed in a few hours and I still have 1200 flags

[Zangetsu]

17 hours ago, Alkaid said:

Too add to what Johann said, I just feel like laying out my thoughts on why I feel CYLs and VGs should be taken very lightly in general. I've seen many take CYL as if it's gospel for measuring popularity, and some even use VGs to say X character isn't popular anymore due to their performance.

CYL:
>able to vote multiple times from multiple devices (we know for a fact even some here spammed tons of votes for certain characters themselves)
>mid-vote results being shown publicly, skewing results by people rallying for who they see has a chance at a better placement (I agree Veronica probably wouldn't have jumped to second place had people not known from that reveal that she had a better shot at being made playable than anyone would have blindly expected)
>split votes for some characters (RIP Marth, he deserved to be above Ephraim)
>depending on how you want to judge popularity, CYL2 likely focuses on actual Heroes players rather than the fanbase as a whole, which the first CYL was more targeted at

VG:
>voting skewed by how often individuals can actually spend time to vote regularly during the time period
>also how well people can catch multipliers, which are all over the place for people of all different timezones
>don't think I need to get into the multiplier system itself
>some more inclined to back whatever unit they actually have over favoritism
>some people picking teams to feather merc rather than favorites
>seems more prone to "new shiny unit" factor carrying weight(when the VG is about recent banners like this one)

I think CYL is a very loose measure thanks to how poorly it functions as a fair poll. VG is all over the place for various reasons plus those like Johann pointed out. Like I'd say we all agree Lucina is obviously more popular than Kagero as a character, but in the end she ends up with the bigger team probably thanks to recency bias, being a new cool unit type, the newest fanservice unit, no shared color in the summoning pool, etc. mixed together.

The short version: We should hold less stock in CYL results, and for VG just turn your brain off and collect the feathers to keep your sanity.

 

16 hours ago, Tenzen12 said:

There is bit more to it than just that. Franchise entry bias. Ie Jagerou would be backed by many Fates fans who just happen prioritize someone else in cyl. Catria in other hand had some votes split and she works incredibly well in bunny suit with this mid gap thing.

I can't help but feel like we should have a separate discussion regarding the CYL & Voting Gauntlet on whether it has credibility on gauging the popularity.

[BANRYU]

Poo on work for making me unable to use flags during multipliers... time to start burning them with or without multipliers here too I suppose =w=

[Ice Dragon]

Because this just got quoted...

17 hours ago, Alkaid said:

>able to vote multiple times from multiple devices (we know for a fact even some here spammed tons of votes for certain characters themselves)

Multiple devices is an actual concern, though this depends entirely on how well Nintendo is policing their voters.

Multiple times doesn't matter because very voter has the same number of votes and is therefore represented equally.

17 hours ago, Alkaid said:

>mid-vote results being shown publicly, skewing results by people rallying for who they see has a chance at a better placement (I agree Veronica probably wouldn't have jumped to second place had people not known from that reveal that she had a better shot at being made playable than anyone would have blindly expected)

Actual concern. Showing results mid-way through voting, especially because voters are guaranteed to have remaining votes at the time of the results being revealed, is certain to skew votes towards popular candidates that voters didn't think had a chance, but are revealed to be close enough to have a chance.

17 hours ago, Alkaid said:

>split votes for some characters (RIP Marth, he deserved to be above Ephraim)

Does not matter when actually analyzing the results numerically. You can add the split votes together.

17 hours ago, Alkaid said:

>depending on how you want to judge popularity, CYL2 likely focuses on actual Heroes players rather than the fanbase as a whole, which the first CYL was more targeted at

It's actually a bit more involved than that. CYL 2 I feel was reasonably well understood by the voters to be "Who you do you want an alternate version of?" rather than "Who do you like?". The answers to those questions can be very different from each other.

17 hours ago, Alkaid said:

>voting skewed by how often individuals can actually spend time to vote regularly during the time period

Not an issue. Voters for one team are not more likely to be unable to spend time to vote than voters for a different team.

17 hours ago, Alkaid said:

>also how well people can catch multipliers, which are all over the place for people of all different timezones

Multipliers can be accounted for mathematically, and again, voters for one team are not more likely to be unable to vote during a multiplier than voters for a different team unless voter distribution for teams are very different geographically. Even then, it's not difficult to take those into account because multiplier hours typically exist for both teams at multiple times of the day.

17 hours ago, Alkaid said:

>don't think I need to get into the multiplier system itself

Not an issue mathematically.

17 hours ago, Alkaid said:

>some more inclined to back whatever unit they actually have over favoritism

Debatable whether this has a significant effect on the team size ratios.

17 hours ago, Alkaid said:

>some people picking teams to feather merc rather than favorites

This makes the smaller team bigger so that the ratio of team sizes may be off, but it won't change which team is bigger unless it's a very close match.

17 hours ago, Alkaid said:

>seems more prone to "new shiny unit" factor carrying weight(when the VG is about recent banners like this one)

Not sure that's actually an issue. The finals for this Voting Gauntlet, for example, are between Spring Lucina and Spring Kagero, not between Lucina and Kagero. There's a difference.

 

Summary:

CYL 1 is a decent measure of popularity, but is very much outdated at this point. CYL 2 doesn't measure popularity at all because the ramifications of the results of the vote are more clear.

Voting Gauntlets are an okay measure of popularity as long as you look at the hour-by-hour numbers and not who actually won. However, you have to be careful with what the Gauntlet is actually measuring. New Year Azura and Azura are not the same thing as each other.

[mampfoid]

17 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

Voting Gauntlets are an okay measure of popularity as long as you look at the hour-by-hour numbers and not who actually won.

Do you think the number of players who choose their party tactically (underdogs for more multipliers) is so low? 

[Raven]

2 minutes ago, mampfoid said:

Do you think the number of players who choose their party tactically (underdogs for more multipliers) is so low? 

i, for one, think so. with each passing gauntlet, i've seen the notion of "supporting the least popular unit for more feathers" go out the window - especially after the multiplier threshold was lowered from 10% to 1%.

[Ice Dragon]

6 minutes ago, mampfoid said:

Do you think the number of players who choose their party tactically (underdogs for more multipliers) is so low? 

Playing mercenary is only noticeably advantageous in complete blowouts (4:1 team size ratio, give or take) in which case the number of mercenaries is nowhere near enough to tip the relative team sizes the other way.

There's no good way to determine the exact relative popularity of two characters (i.e. character A is twice as popular as character B), but it's certainly possible to determine which of the two characters is more popular with a general sense of what the difference is (e.g. character A is a lot more popular than character B or character A is only a little more popular than character B).

[mampfoid]

@Ice Dragon @Raven Good points. It can work as an indicator who of two units is more popular, even if it's a flawed one. 

People may not know that choosing the seemingly less popular unit gives an advantage only in some cases. Other players perhaps chose a unit they actually have in their roster over a unit they usually like more. 

[Punished Dayni]

Well, because Western Europe can't be up for the finale, I'm done for this round, will sleep and see if Lucina actually won a second gauntlet in the morning or if I should have picked Bunnero all along (It was a matter of who I'd had for longer and Springcina has been great for me for a year now, while Bunnero's a recent pull. Sorry for joining the old timey bandwagon).

Just wanting to admire my ranks of 620 overall and around 3,300th on Team Lucina for this round, because there is no way these hold up for me now. I'd not done too badly in fairness, but I don't see it holding.

Edited April 9, 2018 by Dayni

[Alkaid]

2 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

Summary:

CYL 1 is a decent measure of popularity, but is very much outdated at this point. CYL 2 doesn't measure popularity at all because the ramifications of the results of the vote are more clear.

Voting Gauntlets are an okay measure of popularity as long as you look at the hour-by-hour numbers and not who actually won. However, you have to be careful with what the Gauntlet is actually measuring. New Year Azura and Azura are not the same thing as each other.

Mostly, yes. Unfortunately it feels like those last 2 bits don't get considered as often as they should, which is the biggest issue. (Especially elsewhere. The "Kagero is more popular than Camilla now" or "Lucina's popularity has dropped off" discussions I've seen crop up over this seem just plain silly)

 

Anyway, I'm thankful the stalemate broke early enough to cause a couple multipliers. I cut it close with saving so many flags instead of spending on a couple multipliers last night to be safer. I've got 700 left right now and hoping we might get a couple more good hours to dump them.

[Rafiel's Aria]

I ended up dumping all of my flags earlier because I had no idea whether Same Hell would kick in or not. I probably could have saved a few, but I'm glad I didn't so I don't have to stress now. My team rank is around 7300 at the moment which isn't bad considering I went into this round with zero flags, but my overall rank is like...350. XD I managed to stay in the top 100 for most of this round. But if I manage to stay in the top 1000, I'll be happy as a clam!

According to the predictor, there's a chance Lucina might throw us back into Same Hell for the remainder of the gauntlet. That could be enough for Lucina to steal a win. If we volley back and forth, Lucina will likely end up with the last multiplier. If Kagero has one REALLY good multiplier, she might force Lucina into two consecutive mulipliers which could give Kagero the last one or even toss them into Same Hell if Lucina doesn't manage to catch up with one...unless of course those consecutive multipliers are the last two. It's still really anyone's game because the trends always drastically change during the last few hours as panic sets in.

Maybe the livestream was set up to deal with the VG salt.

[Ice Dragon]

15 minutes ago, Rafiel's Aria said:

According to the predictor, there's a chance Lucina might throw us back into Same Hell for the remainder of the gauntlet. That could be enough for Lucina to steal a win. If we volley back and forth, Lucina will likely end up with the last multiplier. If Kagero has one REALLY good multiplier, she might force Lucina into two consecutive mulipliers which could give Kagero the last one or even toss them into Same Hell if Lucina doesn't manage to catch up with one...unless of course those consecutive multipliers are the last two. It's still really anyone's game because the trends always drastically change during the last few hours as panic sets in.

If we end up in same hell at the end of this hour, it's almost a certain win for Team Kagero.

The probability of a back-and-forth volley is nearly impossible unless Team Lucina can match Team Kagero's multipliers each time.

[silverserpent]

Still sitting on 1400 flags to dump these last few hours.

[Bubba Jones]

4 minutes ago, silverserpent said:

Still sitting on 1400 flags to dump these last few hours.

My condolences, you’ll likely be pouring a lot into non bonus hours.

[silverserpent]

3 minutes ago, Bubba Jones said:

My condolences, you’ll likely be pouring a lot into non bonus hours.

It's alright. I started at the bottom and shot up to the top 5k in the last hour, so I think I'll do fine.

[Ginko]

Kagerou lead around 6 billions after 7.2 multiplier.

There is a chance that Lucina can't get pass and trap in same hell next hour.

[Usana]

Well I had to dump 300 flags into non-multiplier hours, but I also carried 300 over so that is a wash. The bad thing is just how many had to go into earlier multipliers. But still any multiplier is better than no multiplier.