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Athena_57

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Posts posted by Athena_57

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    Yo wtf is going on here. I agree with Fable (how often have I said these words now?) that that Refa vote from Makaze doesn't make any sense. Makaze voting there because he doesn't want a hammer is BS, when he said that Snoyke was at hammer minus 4.

    This hopping around from Omega and Refa is giving me the same vibes as mess around Junk's lynch. I don't like the Walrein votes, why aren't we giving him a chance to prove his role?

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, athena_57 said:

    Also, I realized I forgot to give my take on the empower/Kaoz thing. I agree either Walrein is lying about the modmistake or the empowered person killed Kaoz. I also agree the most likely empower target was someone he jailed. Alette, Baldrick, Omega and Snoyke had claimed to not have night actions. I now it wasn't me. I don't think Sully had either a powerful role or was likely to be killed. Kaoz was scumreading LG.
    This leaves Fable, Kill, Makaze, Refa, Via and Walrein. I am certain enough in Fable and Via being neither mafia nor ITP to scrap them off this list. Assuming Walrein didn't lie about the modmistake (which we're assuming in this scenario), he can't be the killer either.

    Between Kill, Makaze and Refa I'd lynch Makaze > Kill >>>>> Refa (Pretty sure he's town, just not 100%, more like 95%).

    Wait actually Kaoz jailing Makaze makes no sense either after the Arc flip, right?

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    13 hours ago, Snike said:

    Also I think athena townreading my slot consistently is false. I distinctly remember him reading me as mostly null and I believe yesterday he scumread?

    Noticed this whilst rereading, missed it the first time around. You're right, I wasn't townreading you consistently, I phrased it a bit awkwardly, I was referring back to mid day 1 to mid day 3, which is where I townread you iirc. So when I said it's hard to leave my townread behind I was referring to that.

    7 minutes ago, Refa said:

    Sully was obvious town.  Never lynch.  Don't think he made sense as ITP either, what with the lack of self preservation.

    I'm not sure I agree on the obvtown part, but you're right they can't be ITP. In any case, I agree they're not the lynch today.

     

    Rereading Makaze made me more confused tbh. What I noticed was that whilst reading his post I was more getting into the flow of his thought process than actually analyzing the intent behind it, which I guess is a good thing? @Refa Could you try to explain what makes Makaze town for you or is it just the same feeling I have where his cases feel genuine despite being bad? I personally am torn between good gut vibes and bad actual behavior here.

    Also, I realized I forgot to give my take on the empower/Kaoz thing. I agree either Walrein is lying about the modmistake or the empowered person killed Kaoz. I also agree the most likely empower target was someone he jailed. Alette, Baldrick, Omega and Snoyke had claimed to not have night actions. I now it wasn't me. I don't think Sully had either a powerful role or was likely to be killed. Kaoz was scumreading LG.
    This leaves Fable, Kill, Makaze, Refa, Via and Walrein. I am certain enough in Fable and Via being neither mafia nor ITP to scrap them off this list. Assuming Walrein didn't lie about the modmistake (which we're assuming in this scenario), he can't be the killer either.

    Between Kill, Makaze and Refa I'd lynch Makaze > Kill >>>>> Refa (Pretty sure he's town, just not 100%, more like 95%).

    I need some input from people on this though as I'm still torn on Makaze.

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    The more Makaze interactions I see, the less I like it. Though I can still see the Omega ITP theory, I also like Omega's points on Makaze. The interactions between them make me willing to lynch either of them, if only for the associative reads it would provide. I would reread Makaze, but I honestly don't know if I'll get around to reading the fuckton of posts he made, so I guess I'll stick with rereading the last 24 hours or so in depth.

    The roleblocking shenanigans around Walrein don't necessarily clear him, but I don't think we should lynch him for now.

    Regarding Snoyke, I suppose I phrased it a bit awkwardly in my previous posts, I didn't mean I was townreading them the entire time, I meant I saw their overall behavior as towny for a long time. Their defense is bad in my eyes, I'd be willing to lynch here as well.

    Can people tell me why Beru is clear again? I don't remember and they would be in my PoE pool. I can understand townreading them slightly over gut, but they're nowhere near as clear as some others.

    Giving Evan a chance to prove his role seems fair and I like motivating him, which is another reason to not lynch Walrein yet.

    Alette, Via, Fable, Refa still clear in my eyes. I'm not buying the Refa ITP theory, I think there are more likely targets out there. Perhaps if everyone besides these 4 is gone I'd consider it, but not until then.

    After these 4 Baldrick is the biggest townread, extremely close to being clear. Kill is looking pretty towny as well I think, though I'm having trouble judging him due to his posting style.

     

    Assuming I just missed the reason why Beru is clear, I'd be willing to lynch any of Snoyke, Omega, Makaze.

    If it's just a collective gutread, I'd honestly consider voting Beru over Snoyke.

     

    I'm holding off on judging between Makaze and Omega and thus voting until I've reread the former, expect me to have done it in about 4 hours from now.

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    1 hour ago, EvanManManMan said:

    Wait Walrein claiked his action failed night 1. Didn't a scum compulsive roleblocker flip? That would clear Walrein if he truly was roleblocked

     

    4 hours ago, Snike said:

    I think walrein's claim is believable except I don't know how kaoz died in that scenario. If mack had been motivated I have absolutely no doubt one of those martyrs would have been on kaoz in addition to a wifom target.

    These two are both good points and sadly point in different directions. I don't agree with Evan it completely clears him, as if scum blocked someone who's now dead he can safely fakeclaim being roleblocked, but I do agree it makes it a lot more likely for him to be town.

    Snoyke raises a good question as well, the only answer I can think if is the ballsy play of hoping scum avoids Kaoz because Mack outed he would be on him.

    I am not convinced in this vote anymore, especially considering people I read as locktown (Fable, Refa) have left the wagon and only Makaze and Omega remain.

    ##Unvote

    Makaze's stuff on Shinori/Walrein interactions isn't wrong, but I am increasingly worried about how certain he is of his reads. I don't expect full blown paranoia, but if points like the above quote from Evan have been made, how can you remain so convinced based on the in my eyes bad but not damning interactions with Shinori?

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    13 hours ago, Refa said:

    I saw Shinori's vote on the slot, something that struck me as weird was that Athena never really responds to Shinori's cases on him despite townreading the slot.  Very strange!  If a townread was voting me, I'd be very hurt confused.  These were the wagons after he voted Athena as well.  In a vacuum, I'd argue this makes Athena look good BUT the lack of interaction from Shinori makes him look worse AND it makes his JB vote far less telling.

    I didn't respond to Shinori, because all he did was say "Yah, what Snike said", so by responding to Snike I was basically responding to Shinori's points. Shinori didn't really ask me direct questions/quote my posts/do anything interactive wrt me. This supports the shinori trying to pocket Snoyke theory by the way.

    7 hours ago, Omega. said:

    I'm voting athena. He was wolfy AF D1, to hell with the bussing and other shit. Also, eclipse was targeted for a kill N1. Her main pushes were athena/zeus (now Makaze), and there was the debacle from page 9-13 where zeus/Bibbon/Fable/athena got into a huge slapfight. Bibbon was villager, Fable's off the table, so that leaves zeus/athena unless you tell me it was all a bunch of villagers fighting. I doubt it though; I think zeus was either a caught wolf or athena was taking advantage of an easy push. If for some horrible reason the Makaze slot is a villager, athena's usually the wolf jumping on an easy push there. Or zeus was just caught which would explain why Makaze has been open wolfing for quite some time now. I wanted to wait until him/Walrein posted, but this village has no idea what the fuck it's doing so just kill like him, Evan, and Makaze if you guys lynch me today.

    ##Vote: athena

    For fuck's sake, I wasn't pushing Zeus at any point and I wasn't scumreading him at any point. This is the fifth time now someone has claimed I was scumreading him and I'm pretty much fuming right now. Zeus was fucking NULL for me the whole time and it wasn't me pushing him, it wasn't me pressuring him, it wasn't me casing him, it was me trying to get him to post.

    I don't see why you classify this as slapfight/all of us fighting when there was barely interaction between me, Fable and Bibbon, only between each of us and Zeus.

     

    Reading what's been said today, it's hard to write my conclusive feelings on it, as most of it is discarded later this day or is the repeating of arguments in the case of makaze vs omega. Maybe I'm just too tired though. If there is any interaction/post in specific someone wants me to give an opinion on (mostly looking at you @Omega.), refer me to them and I will reply.

    As for the cases being discussed, I like both the cases given by Makaze, being the ITP case on Omega and the case on Walrein. For more on this, see below.

     

    As of now, my reads are:

    Certainly town:

    Alette, Baldrick, Fable, Refa, Via

    Probably town:

    Kill (Feels very town, but Shinori not voting Kirsche remains weird)
    Makaze (I'm inclined to think his reads have just been off. His tone overall is good, his thought progression reads natural. I dislike how extremely convinced he appears at all times, only to swap away later, but that's probably just the way he is regardless of alignment.)
     

    This leaves Evan, Omega, Snoyke, Beru and Walrein

    The most towny of this bunch is Snoyke, and I can buy the pocket theory. Wouldn't lynch as of now.

    Omega being ITP over rolespec makes a lot of sense to me. From a design setup, giving them protection against mafia, but giving mafia a tool to deal with it makes too much sense to be coincidence.

    Of the others, I like the case on Walrein, and they are the who I'm voting on.

    ##Vote: Walrein

    There's not much I can say here, I agree with the points being presented and of all the people in my PoE pool they are the one with the least 'redeeming qualities'. I think I remember liking LG's posts and Sully's defense looks better, knowing Arcanite was town, as the main reason I was convinced on the case was their buddying.

    I'd lynch Beru over Evan atm, Evan's posts are a bit of a mixed bag with the weird theory on the hydra and the triple vig-theory, but overall I like it. Both of them have only recently subbed in though, so I can't judge them on their own play too much yet.

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't remember Walrein or any of the flipped scum really interacting with either of LG and Sully?

    I'm afraid I'm still pretty much in the mindset of lynching people within the PoE pool and seeing where it goes, I lack the conviction on any of them which some others like Makaze do appear to have right now. I was a lot more motivated when I had clearer scumreads in day 1 to 3, but now that Arc has flipped town and my PoE pool is pretty indistinguishable I don't really know where to push. I'm hoping Walrein, Beru and Evan posting more allows me to narrow it further down.

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    @Makaze

    I read the case and agree with it. I mostly read his posts as uncertain the first time around, but reading them in succession really highlights his flip-floppiness/opportunism. Same thing with the constant excusing everything over the meta of one single game, I interpreted it as just uncertainty/paranoia/bad play, but it could also be a really easy way to reinforce shitty cases.

    I will admit, at first I was bothered by your immediate "we solved it"-attitude, it felt over the top, but after Arcanite came in and defended Sully... That's pretty bad.

    I'm not as dead-certain as you are, but am definitely okay with lynching the slot.

    As of now, I want to lynch either Arc or Sully (preferably Arc I think?). I would be cool with consolidating on others, but I don't think that'll be necessary.

     

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Makaze said:

    I can agree with this. It did bother me too actually. I think Snike is hyper aware of bad looks and is playing around that.

    Care to make a real case?

    Well, I'm still uncertain over the Snoyke slot, so not sure whether you'd call it a case, but there are a few things that bother me

    - The aforementioned argument where I said Snike was keeping Satsuma on a leash. I'd expect town!Snike to "let Satsuma roam freely" as more pushes can only mean more interactions and more info for town, whereas scum!Snike might be worried about scumslips/bad pushes. This fits in with the hyper self-awareness you mentioned.

    - Their tunnels on me and Mack were pretty excessive and most importantly both escalated over counterattacks. It keeps on bugging me that I don't think they'd have gone so all in on me if I hadn't opened with a Satsuma push? Same with Mack, they only started really scumreading Mack once he attacked them. I'm not saying it's OMGUS/on purpose, in fact I think it's subconscious, but it's shady nonetheless.

    - Their voteswitch from Junk onto Kirsche looks pretty bad

    - Their interactions with Shinori are close to buddying

    That being said, I think Snike has been a very productive player and when I use the word tunneling above, I'm using it a bit loosely as they did comment on others. Also, if we're doubting the Kirsche/Kill slot the voteswitch isn't bad. Some people have made the argument that their buddying with Shinori is obvious enough to make it unlikely to be scum partners.

    My problem with this slot is that I like it overall, but there are these details that stand out to me as pretty bad. I really do not know what to make of it.

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    One thing that sort of bothers me about the hydra is that it appears as if Satsuma is being kept on a leash by Snike. What I mean by that, is that whenever Satsuma posts he's more acting like Snike's mouth whilst he's busy making a wall or saying "Snike will get back to you" instead of doing stuff themselves.

    This is in my eyes likelier to come from scum!hydra then town!hydra. Anyone agrees/disagrees?

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    I've read/skimmed everything posted between me going to bed last night (page 81) and now. I might have missed some stuff, so if anyone has specific questions feel free to ask. I've come to a few conclusions:

    - Kill has done a very good job of destroying the towncred Kirsche built up. I didn't like his entrance, and looking at phase end of day 2 again, I can see where people are coming from when they wonder why scum didn't vote Kirsche. I still think it could just be because not all were online/those who were online couldn't naturally switch, but I can also see it being because Kirsche was scum. My read on Kill is now leaning town instead of 90% town.

    - The Snoyke/Mack exchange was interesting... Both slots end up looking worse as a result. I'd like to lynch between the two of them, but the biggest wagons as of now appear to be Arc and LG?

    -Speaking of @Arcanite, please stop reading D1/D2 and just get to last couple of hours of D2 and the beginning of D3, that's where most of the interactions and current read-lists are from. You also haven't said how you felt about the other lynch candidates of today yet?

    - As for LG, I'm not really sold on the roleclaim either, I could see it being fake.

    I'm fine with hanging Arcanite/Lord Gaius/Walrein. I'm also fine with lynching Snoyke/Mack, mostly because the interactions between the two would help clearing/catching the other.

    Of the ones in this list that are a serious wagon atm I think I prefer Arcanite, I'd consolidate on any of the others.

    ##Unvote

    ##Vote: Arcanite

    Someone also asked whether I was notified that I was redirected N1, I was indeed notified of this.

    We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

    in Mafia

    Posted

    Okay, I reread the 4 people in my others pile and I also remembered why they're in the others pile.

    Walrein ISO gave me nothing tbh. They did post some game-relevant stuff, but I can't really conclude anything from it. I still like the Fable stuff on them and their flaking being concentrated around phase end is worrisome and something I hadn't noticed.

    Ignoring Weapons troll posts, it's mostly just a mess. He said it was because he was unsure of his reads, which could be true.
    As for interactions, he defended Junk and attacked Kirsche on page 35 and defends JB on page 57.
    They also vote Shinori on that page, but he explicitly stated it was a random out of a 4 player PoE pool on active people which is ??? Him expressing doubt and Shinori not being at any risk of being lynched makes me ignore this interaction.
    Arcanite has only posted stuff about page 1-20, which I think is NAI.

    I didn't like the Nightmare stuff and still don't. I also don't like how Mack treated the QT at first. (First you steal Refa's phone, then you ignore it? Rude.) Satsuma brings up a god point in the post above me as well.

    LG is sort of super-null. Them voting Eclipse is a bummer, but at the very least they've been productive today and appear to be doing stuff.

    As of now, I'd leave LG alone for a while, the others bother me more.

     

    I still have to read the cases people made in depth, but I'll get into that tomorrow.

    For now I'll do this, I like Snoyke's analysis

    ##Vote: Mackc2

    What I'd like to hear from these 4 the most rn is how they feel about eachother, and I want to see them vote (LG already did, others haven't).

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