Green Poet

Terribly sorry for the vig speculation. If Fleur voteswitches to me because of this and I get lynched D1, please consider these once I flip town: -I believe Fleur is town. If anything, Fleur's noting that my vigspec was possibly disadvantageous to town, an unprompted observation, makes me very confident in this. -I believe Refa is town. I don't think that the argument earlier on his equivocal word choice indicates that he's scum, simply because it'd be much easier for him not to throw out words at all. We have enough lurkers already, and if Fleur's ready to have vig kill them, this logically vindicates Refa. -I believe Xinnidy is town. She expresses belief that Refa is town, is the first to disagree with Refa's case on Shin that I've come to discard as well, and most importantly believes that I looked the scummiest in the beginning due to my contradictory posts. Looking back, I can follow and actually agree with this train of thought. I'm really not sure if this scumspec changes anything with kirsche. -I believe eclipse is scum, based on previously given reasons.

I don't quite see how, given that the chance of you being vig and you being another town PR are mutually exclusive. In any case, my reasoning there is admittedly shaky. Just thought I'd try to contribute something new, since my lack of doing that has raised suspicions. Hopefully this doesn't make me look scummy now... though I suppose I would have said this in the likely-to-exist scum chat instead of publicly if I were scum.

Another indication that Fleur is unlikely to be vig, telegraphing her own shots. Or perhaps I'm just trying too much to find something from nothing. I think that, based on how many people have raised suspicions about others at this point, it would be more beneficial to lynch someone just to be able to deduce some factions based on said person's thoughts on them. Right now, the worth of lynching to kill scum and lynching for information seems to have balanced out, given how we're basing our suspicion of who actually is scum on words alone rather than role knowledge.

Regarding your vigilante priority list, Fleur... If we're putting this up to some kind of vote, I'd rather that vig not kill today. The chances of hitting town among your seven-person list is much likely higher than hitting scum, and at this point that factor of randomness is much more dangerous to town than the potential of them simply being lurking scum. May I ask why you think it's more beneficial to ask vig to kill someone inactive, and more probable than not to be town, than to kill someone you personally think is scum? On a much more precarious note - discounting WIFOM, I think the fact that Fleur has asked for an essentially random/inactive kill disqualifies Fleur as a vig read, since a neutrally-inclined vig that doesn't share Fleur's reads would be more likely to do as asked. Not that this means much at this stage, really.

Seems I'll be posting some more tonight, then. Quite the opposite, in fact. I presently do not think that Shin is necessarily scum, else my vote would still be on him. Right now, my vote is on eclipse for two reasons besides my suspicion on her: -You have arguably the most content-filled posts so far. If eclipse flips scum, I and the rest of town have a huge amount of then-proven reliable information to work with starting D2. (If eclipse is scum and had been trying to bus you, I assume she'd have been more diligent about it.) -eclipse was closer to being lynched than Shin at the time of my switch, and between her and Refa, I have more of a reason to be wary of her. Sounds good. I'll be up for a bit longer and see if I can reply in kind, if that ends up being necessary.

Hopefully that clears up the misunderstanding between myself and Shin/bearclaw. I've probably tossed out too much text in this last hour, so I'll shut up for a bit. @ those with concerns about my relative lack of original cases - I'll try to come up with more stuff during D2 when there's more to work with, provided I'm alive.

Edited so that I'm able respond to each point. -Addressed in my last post. -It doesn't turn out you didn't until Flan flips town. Flan currently has no votes. -What have I implied that I want to hear from you? -I apologize if it seems as though I'm trying to instruct you, and apologize to bearclaw as well for repeating myself again in saying that I'm inexperienced. I am the least qualified player here to be instructing you how to play. What you had quoted there was me asking why you acted a certain way; I hadn't explicitly told you to do anything. -Eclipse's not having replied is contextualized by her post that essentially says "I won't reply until you all have something I can work with," something that I've pointed out enough times. As for you, I've never stated that you're spewing out scum, merely that your mannerisms seem scummier to me than others'. -If you're looking for a written confession, see my last post. My suspicion toward you derives mainly from your incongruous wording and actions. I'm not saying it's an overbearingly strong or backed-up suspicion. It isn't based in some sort of deduction that definitively points to you as scum. Agreed.

-As Shin pointed out himself, that was a weak indication of Shin's motives, and not the focus of my suspicions on him. To clarify, I'm not saying it was explicitly a defense, but assuming Flan is scum, then it gives him a reason to. Again, I'm not stating that Flan is scum. It's merely reasonable to question someone's voteswitch when it seems that nothing can be gained by it, which is the primary reason for my suspicion in that case, not his potential act of defense. Shin claims that that was just a product of his joking nature, which I cannot contest, and have therefore stopped mentioning. -Xinnidy specifically chose to question me about acting inexperienced and hesitant, which is why I naturally explained in kind. It wouldn't have made sense for me to reply in any other way, hence you see my reply as essentially "I don't know anything." This is true, and I do not know anything, as it's D1 and we have no solid information just yet. I'm nitpicking at slightly suspicious points in people's posts because there's nothing else to go on at this point in the game. -What do you mean by a change in my tone? Are you saying that I stopped "acting" inexperienced and hesitant? If so, your suspicion towards me is implicitly based on the argument that I'm simply pretending to be new at mafia, so that I can hide more efficiently as scum. Yet there are two obvious signs that indicate the exact opposite - first, Xinnidy's post itself advises me to become more confident, so it'd only be natural for me to try doing so. And second, you're able to provide multiple examples of phrases in which I seemed inexperienced, and yet don't quote me on a single time that I acted the opposite, despite this being such a purportedly drastic change in tone and something that should be able to be pinpointed easily. -Is there something wrong/scummy with sheeping? Since it's indicative of my general inability to gather scumreads, and thus my inexperience, aren't you contradicting yourself by bringing my level of experience into question? Additionally, there's nothing markedly wrong with sheeping this early into the game. You may think it's suspicious/scummy that I'm not contributing anything, but there are other posters, such as scorri, Kopfjager, and Flan that have said extremely little as well. If passivity unsettles you, why aren't you more suspicious of someone who's posted fewer times than me? -My mistake for misinterpreting eclipse's activity. I had disclaimed that I might be incorrect about this, and again, this is clearly something that indicates my inexperience. Still, the bulk of my suspicion wrt eclipse is in her exclusively meta-based dismissal of Fleur, whom I'm inclined to believe is town, and "I won't contribute until the rest of you do" statement. Her being a mod is tangential to my main focus. -Do you think there's anything scummy about eclipse's posts? They're few in number, brief, and not exactly recent, so it's naturally difficult to pick out anything scummy from them. I may have addressed some of Shin's points already in this, and may reply to him with something more comprehensive in a bit. For now, my main response to Shin is that I don't think he's as positively scummy as he seems to believe. I don't think your silliness is "a sign of the devil," just something that I don't quite understand and therefore have a hard time believing. As you can see, I've switched my vote from you to eclipse. You are not my primary suspicion anymore, and even when you were, "primary" and "highly convinced" did not mean the same.

That's a rather convenient dismissal. The defense of your most recent post is the same as the last one, that I'm blindly following cases against yourself and eclipse. I've addressed both of these concerns, and a "that doesn't really go anywhere" response doesn't prompt me to attempt to explain again. Sort of suspicious about Kopfjager right now. It's entirely possible that, and understandable if, he simply hasn't been able to commit much time to the game. But his inactivity is still scummy, and his rather random RD vote doesn't convince me yet. That being said, I think I'm going to ##Unvote ##Vote: eclipse Perhaps my perception of eclipse's meta isn't accurate, but judging from the fact that she's an SF mod, I would reason that she's more inherently much more likely than Kopfjager to post. That, and her "I won't post until the rest of you contribute" disclaimer seems like a convenient excuse for scum to lurk. I'd like to maximize the chance that one of my scumreads is lynched D1, and I feel that this would be much more likely to happen wrt eclipse rather than Shin. Still not abandoning my Shin case, though, as much as he repeats that it's insubstantial.

That brings to mind some really interesting RP/flavor opportunities... I'm all for it, but I don't think someone with my level of experience could play two games concurrently.

Sure, I can see how one would say that my opinions have been largely influenced by others' reads. If I think that their reasons agree with my (limited) intuition, then of course I'll state that I think similarly, like I have with some of your posts. I do think it's likely that eclipse is scum, based off of what I've currently seen, and wouldn't say that this thought is "wishy-washy." As for my hesitancy/stance-switching: the only time I recall doing this was wrt the initial Shin/Flan timestamp thing... which yet again brings into question of if your impression of my scuminess is dependent on me actually being scum, or just inexperienced. On a less relevant note, I don't really mind being referred to as "he," but it was slightly confusing at first. For future reference and clarity's sake, when I need to refer to others with pronouns, I'll just use the gender as indicated by their profile.

Oh, I've stopped pressing that mainly because Flan really isn't the basis of my suspicions regarding you anymore, and because I've heard that Flan's been banned for a number of days. Obviously, it'd be impolite to make a case against him now, and I doubt I could if I wanted to, with such a scarcity of recent content from him because of said ban. Agreed. BBM is a solid townread for me right now, along with Refa and Fleur.

After reading more of your posts... yes, I can definitely believe that. But expectations of your meta aren't exactly a defense, but more of the basis of a defense, and saying that "You should discount all the erratic posts I make because I'm an erratic person" is just too much of a catch-all statement for me to accept easily. There are others who do know you well that have agreed with me, as well. The way I'm seeing it, Refa was actually agreeing with me about my suspicions of you, not the other way around. But really, does it matter if we both think the same way? And if you're implying that this makes Refa and I scumbuddies, why did you vote RD instead? In any case, I don't see why having more people suspicious of you is a good thing.

Oops. Might not have been entirely clear here; by "you" I mean Shin, hypothetically.

Oh, yeah, forgot to address this. Sorry for my generalizations. I'll try to elaborate. The only suggested reason as to why it'd be reasonable for a townie to voteswitch during RVS is to gauge reactions. My assumption that townies should discontinue doing this and come clean once they're under suspicion may not constitute a good case by itself, but the fact that Shin decided to reply by spontaneously saying "I'll show you reactionary!" means that he not only deliberately defied this generalization, but decided to try and throw off Refa's observations. Now, why would you avoid seriously defending yourself in such a position, and not give Refa a good reason to stop suspecting you? Just to get in some more shenanigans? At that point, the "what townies should do" speculation isn't truly speculation anymore.

It may be cynical of me to say, but the way eclipse has been stating her suspicions feels scummy. Like this. Eclipse's saying that others' lack of content has caused her to have little to post? Doesn't that seem like an easy excuse simply not to contribute? Then we have Fleur, who's been coming up with all sorts of theories, yet eclipse decides to vote Fleur on the grounds that her re-read seemed too informed to be legitimate, that "first-time scum benefits from appearing inexperienced." Essentially, eclipse claiming not to have issues with anyone's posts, except those of the most actively scumhunting poster, doesn't seem like a pro-town attitude to me at all. Eclipse also mentioned that BBM was being too passive, but now that he's addressed that, I can't see how any of eclipse's actions could now be considered town. I suppose that, if eclipse ends up flipping scum, I'll be able to safely believe all of what Fleur's been tossing out.

Yes, my posts do contradict each other, as they weren't presented at the same time. I reread after Fleur suggested that Shin could be defending Flan, and found that to be a likelier explanation than what I had at first. As I've been saying, I have no meta knowledge, so my initial impressions and vote were spontaneous, and I've been trying to form more substantial reads since then. Really, it seems that your read of me comes down to whether or not my new-player disposition and hesitancy is legitimate or scummy, which is a rather tenuous judgment, considering my lack of meta to begin with (hopefully I'm using that term right). Looks like I should address this as well: Sure, I can see why someone might say "No hard feelings" when voting to their scumbuddies. But I'd done so just to establish that I didn't mean SB any ill intent, since I'm unfamiliar with everyone here, and would rather start on pleasant terms. Again, whether or not you believe this depends on how much you buy that I'm just a newbish town player, which many others seem to have accepted already. As for Shin - yes, he seemed scummy to me. He deliberately voteswitched to Refa knowing that Refa had called him out with the first openly serious post, and, recognizing this, it doesn't make much sense to me to call this a product of his own "silliness." It makes sense for town to drop the jokes once someone starts accusing you for real. I'm also somewhat suspicious of Shin's most recent post. I don't believe he was trying to start a wagon on Refa, but his RD vote seems unwarranted to me. RD's reasoning was more or less the same as mine. I'll keep my vote on Shin. As for everyone else - I'm inclined to believe that Fleur is town. Her frequent posting, and original thoughts that I find fairly reasonable, makes me feel that it's unlikely she's holding back any leads. I think eclipse's met-based read of her is off, and a little forced, so I'm curious about that as well. kirsche puts it better than I, at any rate. At the moment: Shin > eclipse >>>>>>> Flan

I'll concede that my reads were pretty insubstantial. I decided to switch my vote to Shin because: -I had something more solid than my baseless vote in RVS, and -as Refa pointed out, his voteswitch looked like the beginnings of a chainsaw defense. My opinion of Flan was admittedly shaky, but it's a possibility. Anyway, that's all from me today. Hopefully I haven't misused terms too much.

I see... my bad. Regarding what's just been said - I don't think Refa's been opportunistic. I was also curious about the timing of their posts, and his thought process feels justified to me. Shin's potential defense of Flan interests me more, and since it's a stronger case than my completely random RVS vote, I'll switch. ##Unvote ##Vote: Shin

I'll assume it's just shenanigans, then. Can't argue with that, as I don't know any of these inside jokes. Moving on, then...

Did anyone have much of a reason to switch votes before you mentioned this, though? Maybe it's just that I'm not familiar with everyone's D1 tendencies here, but it does seem a bit odd to me.

I'm guessing that we're supposed to just vote for whomever we please right now. So, hmm, um. No hard feelings. ##Vote: SB

I bought into the hype and ordered it, though this "Brave/Default" system doesn't seem too novel to me, and I'm hoping it isn't the main feature of the game. In any case, I guess I'll find out what's special about BD in a few days.

Confirming! Apologies to all in advance for my newbishness.

Guess I should spend the next 24 hours reading up on how to play well. Here we go...