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One-Shot Mafia Game Thread - Game Over


charlie_
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Alright, let me argue things from a different angle. Why is BBM still alive? Why wasn't he killed N1 when he claimed Jailer? Yes, Euklyd was a big target too, but it was almost certain that Euklyd would be protected. Mafia had a sneak, so why not just kill BBM? Get rid of a protection role right off the bat, deal with the restore the next day. Why leave him alive til the end? Was Bizz really that much better of a target? Was Euklyd? Assuming actions work in this game like they do in other games, Eukyld's role would have gone through N2 no matter if he died or not. So why not kill the person that he'd be likely to restore, the jailer? Something doesn't make sense here, and I'm going back to my gut.

##Vote:BBM

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As for why mafia never mentioned me, it's because I was inactive. It's why I never mentioned Obejection, it's why I barely mentioned Shinori, it's why I barely mentioned anyone for that matter. I'm an easy mislynch target that they left alive because why not? The only reason I started to get more active is because of the fact that I got damning results with my role. I know that's not good, but it's the truth. I was real busy and not especially interested in the game. But then I had got scum in their lie and had to go for it. It got me more invested and now here we are.

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You were inactive the first two day phases, and when people were starting to get suspicious of you, you popped in with an incriminating result on shinori. This is why I think it's more likely to be a bus, BBM had less to gain and more to lose from it. I understand being busy, you seem to have missed the entire period between eclipse claiming and phase end.

I thought you made too much of BBM's posting yesterday. It's unreasonable to think his opinion was actually changing that much that quickly, rather than he was just sharing his thoughts.

You kept mentioning about the mason claiming before the hammer. I don't see how that would have helped us.

You haven't said why BBM was bussing objection beyond "BBM likes to bus". You simplified his case to rolespec, then after he clarified you said "well, it didn't work before" as though that falsifies the theory.

##vote:scorri

@BBM vote, that is a fair point, I suppose. If scum made the same assumption you did about role priority they might have gone for euklyd N1, but in that case why didn't they use the driver?

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BBM was one of the main wagons D1. He needed as much town cred as much as possible. Why wouldn't he bus? You haven't provided a reason for why I was bussing except I was inactive. People weren't really starting to get suspicious of me except you and maybe BBM.

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I forgot he had two pushes on objection. The first one was fairly minor and it was the same thing I said, so I think the amount of town cred from it is rather limited, the second one the claimed action on bizz with the lack of kill has dissipated most of the suspicion on him so he had less need for cred.

Eury and poly were suspicious of you as well.

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##Vote: Scorri

Her vote at this point is completely logically inconsistent. She goes from painting me as scummy for not dying N1 to talking about how I needed towncred because I was one of the biggest wagons on D1. Of course I didn't die N1, I was a main wagon on D1 and then placed a really terrible swingvote on Refa, who flipped town. She's literally just twisting every single thing I've done to look scummy, even when it doesn't make sense in conjunction with other scummy things she says I've done.

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>You're a main wagon D1.

>You claim jailer which is a major pull for mafia to shoot because doc/hook

>Instead there's no kill, which (if it was intentional) could give you towncred

>You then bus people to gain more town cred

People dropped you pretty quickly after you claimed jailer and believed your claim. It's a really risky role to leave alive. It makes much more sense to kill that role then to leave it alive, even if the person was seeming scummy.

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It's all one-shot roles; no role is strong enough (except maybe Mason Recruiter) to warrant killing on N1 after they were a main wagon on D1. And especially not after I was pretty much the deciding reason Refa was lynched. And by your logic, I can ask you why you weren't killed on N3 after getting Shinori lynched D3.

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Alright, theory time.

- If scorri was mafia, she bussed Shinori hard when Polydeuces had more votes on him

- If BBM was mafia, then the town has four investigation roles, and the mafia none

- If Baldrick is scum. . .that doesn't say much, because his claim came after Shinori's flip.

- Sorry, I'm not scum, and if Euklyd targeted me, ;/

On roles alone, I suspect Baldrick. I need to read more on Shinori/kirsche/Poly.

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The thing with Baldrick's claim is that it just makes no sense to me from a scum perspective. If Baldrick/Shinori were buddies, then the plan was for Shinori to start a 1v1 with Polydeuces where one didn't completely exist, and survive to D4 in the best case scenario. People were only talking about lynching between Shinori and Poly on D2 because of too many investigation roles- how does it make sense for Baldrick to then claim an investigation role? Scorri also claimed one but at least there the possibility of doing it for towncred purposes exists. That's not even there here.

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Except now you're ignoring Baldrick's original plan which was apparently to wait until stuff had happened and then claim. Maybe he already had a claim planned and had nothing to switch it to. He was going to claim to get town cred and then I ruined that plan?

Ugh I don't know.

##Unvote

Honestly, I'm getting super indecisive right now. I'm not sure who I think is scum anymore. The fact that eclipse didn't just hammer me though reassures my believe that she's town. Like... she is 100% town at this point.

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Except the towncred plan is maximized with an immediate CC- waiting around lessens that.

Why did you unvote me Scorri? I don't see anything that Eclipse said in my defence just now that you didn't already dismiss as rolespec earlier when I said it.

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I just... you've been explaining your reads more and like... while I think your logic is flawed, I don't know, the more I read you the more I'm starting to waver on my read on you. And then there's Baldrick who's kinda just been tunneling on me the past two days and I'm just confused.

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@eclipse, all I can say is it wasn't the best idea to sit on the information, but I couldn't have predicted the phase would end so soon.

I would be willing to NL today if there was a decent chance of the mason surviving. If not, we're not narrowing it down any.

@scorri, I'm not tunnelling on you. I believe I've given my thoughts on all the other cases. You're the only person I've been able to find a case of substance on in the last two phases.

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There's no point to No Lynching. Eclipse is confirmed town now regardless of whether or not she's the Mason, because if she was the last scum she would have hammered Scorri, so she'll probably get killed and then it'll just be between me/Scorri/Baldrick anyways, just like it is now. If Baldrick is the Mason, he should out right now to make it a 1v1 between me and Scorri. We don't need to wait for tomorrow for that when the only change will be the loss of one voice. And if Eclipse is the Mason then again it's basically the same thing as today except without Eclipse. Both Scorri and I are supporting a Mason claim so it's obviously not one of us.

Baldrick could have just faked something not investigative related at all if he was going to claim at a point when it'd just be adding another investigative role to the mix without gaining any towncred at all. And waiting to claim Voyeur almost seems too scummy to be scum (I don't really like that wording but I can't think of a better way to phrase it atm).

Another thing that seems sort of suspicious- Scorri started "wavering" on her scumread on me and her townread on Baldrick as soon as Eclipse posted that she thought I was town and Baldrick was scum. If she'd stuck to me, she'd have had to convince both Eclipse and Baldrick to change their reads, while now that she seems to be going more for Baldrick, she only needs to change my read on him.

idk sorry if you're town Scorri but Baldrick's actions don't make any sense to me as mafia.

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