Etrian Odyssey 2 Mafia - Game Over

[FleurDeGlace]

@Radiant Dragon: Why are you getting so sensitive over me saying you didn't type out that line. It could be a Masonry or Neighbour role where you have outside contact with someone else. It doesn't have to be by your scum buddies so I don't know why you made that conclusion so easily.

I don't have any say over who the vigilante kills. I am just tossing out possible targets for him as well as stating that I would not like these inactive players lynched by town without much more discussion or interaction with them.

Regarding limited kills: I have never really seen vigilantes with a limited number of shots before. If our vigilante has a limit on how many times he can kill then he can just ignore my hitlist and shoot who he thinks are scummy.

I think though that shooting an active player is bad because the chances of hitting an active town player that could have contributed a lot with both his role and discussion is high. More town than scum in a game leads to a greater probability of landing a hit on a town. Hitting inactives is better cause the town player would not be contributing as much if he or she is inactive and scum tends to lurk to avoid being in the limelight of lynches. Losses are minimised that way if the kill is not on scum.

[FleurDeGlace]

@Green Poet: I think I touched on your question when I answered Radiant Dragon's queries.

[FleurDeGlace]

@Green Poet: Forgot one thing: More town than scum leads to a greater probability of hitting town than scum either way but the losses are minimised if the vigilante decides to shoot the inactive players.

[FleurDeGlace]

On a much more precarious note - discounting WIFOM, I think the fact that Fleur has asked for an essentially random/inactive kill disqualifies Fleur as a vig read, since a neutrally-inclined vig that doesn't share Fleur's reads would be more likely to do as asked. Not that this means much at this stage, really.

I don't see why you needed to mention this at all. It does not help town at all and only narrows down the scum team's hitlist to town's power roles.

[Green Poet]

I am just tossing out possible targets for him as well as stating that I would not like these inactive players lynched by town without much more discussion or interaction with them.

Another indication that Fleur is unlikely to be vig, telegraphing her own shots. Or perhaps I'm just trying too much to find something from nothing.

I think though that shooting an active player is bad because the chances of hitting an active town player that could have contributed a lot with both his role and discussion is high. More town than scum in a game leads to a greater probability of landing a hit on a town. Hitting inactives is better cause the town player would not be contributing as much if he or she is inactive and scum tends to lurk to avoid being in the limelight of lynches. Losses are minimised that way if the kill is not on scum.

I think that, based on how many people have raised suspicions about others at this point, it would be more beneficial to lynch someone just to be able to deduce some factions based on said person's thoughts on them.

Right now, the worth of lynching to kill scum and lynching for information seems to have balanced out, given how we're basing our suspicion of who actually is scum on words alone rather than role knowledge.

[Green Poet]

I don't see why you needed to mention this at all. It does not help town at all and only narrows down the scum team's hitlist to town's power roles.

I don't quite see how, given that the chance of you being vig and you being another town PR are mutually exclusive. In any case, my reasoning there is admittedly shaky. Just thought I'd try to contribute something new, since my lack of doing that has raised suspicions.

Hopefully this doesn't make me look scummy now... though I suppose I would have said this in the likely-to-exist scum chat instead of publicly if I were scum.

[Radiant Dragon]

@Radiant Dragon: Why are you getting so sensitive over me saying you didn't type out that line. It could be a Masonry or Neighbour role where you have outside contact with someone else. It doesn't have to be by your scum buddies so I don't know why you made that conclusion so easily.

I don't have any say over who the vigilante kills. I am just tossing out possible targets for him as well as stating that I would not like these inactive players lynched by town without much more discussion or interaction with them.

Regarding limited kills: I have never really seen vigilantes with a limited number of shots before. If our vigilante has a limit on how many times he can kill then he can just ignore my hitlist and shoot who he thinks are scummy.

I think though that shooting an active player is bad because the chances of hitting an active town player that could have contributed a lot with both his role and discussion is high. More town than scum in a game leads to a greater probability of landing a hit on a town. Hitting inactives is better cause the town player would not be contributing as much if he or she is inactive and scum tends to lurk to avoid being in the limelight of lynches. Losses are minimised that way if the kill is not on scum.

I wouldn't call my reply 'sensitive' (although if more people continue to say so I'll try and tone it down a bit). Choosing the phrase 'scumbuddies' over 'allies' or 'partners' was simply for emphasis.

Vig should not shoot Night 1. I don't give a damn who you think should or should not be shot.

No one suggested shooting an active player. I'm not sure why you felt this paragraph was necessary.

@Green Poet: I think that your efforts to determine whether or not Fleur is Vig are trying too much to find something from nothing. Fleur simply seems to be trying to help by discussing game theory. Not scummy, but not particularly helpful either.

[FleurDeGlace]

1: Stop talking about whether or not I might be the vigilante.

2: Lynching scum > Lynching for information at any point in time. The lynch system is probably town's only way of picking off the scum team and wasting one on someone that we do not think is likely to be scum wastes the number of chances we have to lynch off all of the scum team one by one. I don't understand why anyone can think that lynching anything other than scum is useful for town. The worth of lynching scum and lynching solely for information never balances out.

3: Our reads on the inactive players are likely too weak right now to definitively point to them as scum given how little content they have posted so it is definitely a given that we lynch active scum players.

4: We should never rely on role knowledge to lynch players or deduce who is scum at all. We don't know the setup; We don't know the host; We don't know if scum has safe claims to claim. It's a bonus if we can lynch scum based on reports but we should be lynching based off of our interactions and discussions instead.

I am a little suspicious of Green Poet right now.

[FleurDeGlace]

@Radiant Dragon: Okay.

You said the vigilante should shoot if he has a good case on someone. I'm just explaining why shooting an inactive player is better over shooting someone that he thinks is scummy (that is most likely active as well). A little far-fetched, I know. That is my bad, woops!

[FleurDeGlace]

Just a heads up, phase ends at 08:00 my time when I'm only likely to be awake from 06:00 onwards. Even then, I have to get ready to head out early.

So, if there's going to be any consolidation of lynches, I hope that it can happen earlier when I can actually be around to move my votes and catch up on the thread.

[Green Poet]

Terribly sorry for the vig speculation. If Fleur voteswitches to me because of this and I get lynched D1, please consider these once I flip town:

-I believe Fleur is town. If anything, Fleur's noting that my vigspec was possibly disadvantageous to town, an unprompted observation, makes me very confident in this.

-I believe Refa is town. I don't think that the argument earlier on his equivocal word choice indicates that he's scum, simply because it'd be much easier for him not to throw out words at all. We have enough lurkers already, and if Fleur's ready to have vig kill them, this logically vindicates Refa.

-I believe Xinnidy is town. She expresses belief that Refa is town, is the first to disagree with Refa's case on Shin that I've come to discard as well, and most importantly believes that I looked the scummiest in the beginning due to my contradictory posts. Looking back, I can follow and actually agree with this train of thought. I'm really not sure if this scumspec changes anything with kirsche.

-I believe eclipse is scum, based on previously given reasons.

[Bluedoom]

Shit these walls of text.

I think Refa's arguments are horrible and he's trying to discredit all suspicion thrown at him but I also think he's probably town. Like, if he was scum he wouldn't be as gung-ho as he is. Scum!Refa wouldn't be very confident to say that every case thrown at him is unreasonable or illogical. If anything I'm reminded of his Semi-Precious Mafia play.

Of the wagons I think I'd go with ##Unvote ##Vote: Shark Bait

His vote on eclipse is long past the expiry date and the apparent 'Refa and SB show' really doesn't tell me what he thinks of Refa? He earlier didn't like Refa's reaction to Shin/Poly actions and he didn't like the votes on Refa also, but then its just pointless arguing of semantics and...RVS votes? At least this was what I could infer from ISOs of both.

Green Poet's playstyle irks me because there's so much of overthinking and paranoia yet the stuff she's overthinking about seems townie. Like I dunno why scum would speculate on who vig is openly. Inb4someonesays WIFOM.

I think vig should shoot tonight regardless. Its best to fire early and plan for repercussions the next day than to wait later and fire when there's more pressure.

I've not read RD's posts fully but he seems to be awfully paranoid about most actions in he game? The paranoia regarding the vig shot seems worse in general and I believe he's been suspicious about some RVS votes as well? Kinda pinging here, I haven't checked his ISO yet(I've been reading other ISOs so I can only get bits and pieces from there) but I'm suspicious at first glance.

[Green Poet]

Green Poet's playstyle irks me because there's so much of overthinking and paranoia yet the stuff she's overthinking about seems townie. Like I dunno why scum would speculate on who vig is openly. Inb4someonesays WIFOM.

Hate to disappoint, but it's actually just because I'm new and bad at mafia.

I'm far from skilled enough to hedge my bets on WIFOM in such a way, though of course even that statement can be interpreted as a WIFOM provocation.

[Radiant Dragon]

I think vig should shoot tonight regardless. Its best to fire early and plan for repercussions the next day than to wait later and fire when there's more pressure.

I've not read RD's posts fully but he seems to be awfully paranoid about most actions in he game? The paranoia regarding the vig shot seems worse in general and I believe he's been suspicious about some RVS votes as well? Kinda pinging here, I haven't checked his ISO yet(I've been reading other ISOs so I can only get bits and pieces from there) but I'm suspicious at first glance.

Firing at this stage doesn't give us enough information to outweigh the fact that if the Vig hits Town we potentially lose a mislynch and speed up the scum's clock by a day.

Not sure how I've been paranoid. How have I been paranoid regarding the Vig shot (can I get some more experienced players to back me up here or tell me why I'm wrong about holding fire Night 1)? If you're referring to my Shin vote when you say 'been suspicious about some RVS votes', I'll remind you that I've already conceded that I made a mistake. I'll let you finish checking ISOs before I push this any further.

Still working on my player analysis. I'm just taking some time to stay updated with current developments.

[Da Bear]

-As Shin pointed out himself, that was a weak indication of Shin's motives, and not the focus of my suspicions on him. To clarify, I'm not saying it was explicitly a defense, but assuming Flan is scum, then it gives him a reason to. Again, I'm not stating that Flan is scum.

It's merely reasonable to question someone's voteswitch when it seems that nothing can be gained by it, which is the primary reason for my suspicion in that case, not his potential act of defense. Shin claims that that was just a product of his joking nature, which I cannot contest, and have therefore stopped mentioning.

This is still weak reasoning, Why would the voteswitch be scummy other than as a potential defense? I can see questioning it but not using to lead a case through half a phase.

-Xinnidy specifically chose to question me about acting inexperienced and hesitant, which is why I naturally explained in kind. It wouldn't have made sense for me to reply in any other way, hence you see my reply as essentially "I don't know anything." This is true, and I do not know anything, as it's D1 and we have no solid information just yet. I'm nitpicking at slightly suspicious points in people's posts because there's nothing else to go on at this point in the game.

No she asked you why you were being so hesitant. She said that "I can understand being new to the game". Her criticisms weren't about you being new (that would be the worst case ever btw) they were about you being hesitant to do stuff and you responded by saying that you're new.

-What do you mean by a change in my tone? Are you saying that I stopped "acting" inexperienced and hesitant? If so, your suspicion towards me is implicitly based on the argument that I'm simply pretending to be new at mafia, so that I can hide more efficiently as scum.

I was getting a "new scumbuddy gets coached by experienced scumbuddy" vibe from the whole thing (nothing to base the read around but worth bringing up at least), I missed Xinny's post and that is a valid reason so consider this to be conceded. (I didn't give examples because it was more the lack of the comments and the sudden influx of confidence)

-Is there something wrong/scummy with sheeping? Since it's indicative of my general inability to gather scumreads, and thus my inexperience, aren't you contradicting yourself by bringing my level of experience into question?

Additionally, there's nothing markedly wrong with sheeping this early into the game. You may think it's suspicious/scummy that I'm not contributing anything, but there are other posters, such as scorri, Kopfjager, and Flan that have said extremely little as well. If passivity unsettles you, why aren't you more suspicious of someone who's posted fewer times than me?

Unsure what your point is, I'm not talking about inexperience with that point, I'm talking about how your sheeping is a problem. Sheeping is bad because it doesn't add to discussion, early-game we need discussion even more, how is sheeping earlygame not a problem? There's no real difference but pressing a case against an active poster will generate more discussion then voteparking an inactive.

-Do you think there's anything scummy about eclipse's posts? They're few in number, brief, and not exactly recent, so it's naturally difficult to pick out anything scummy from them.

Not really (no recent posts is probably her being busy btw). If it's hard to pick out scummy things why is she the top of your scumlist? Why not look at other, more active, people who will be more likely to respond to your points quickly?

Right now, my vote is on eclipse for two reasons besides my suspicion on her:

-You have arguably the most content-filled posts so far. If eclipse flips scum, I and the rest of town have a huge amount of then-proven reliable information to work with starting D2. (If eclipse is scum and had been trying to bus you, I assume she'd have been more diligent about it.)

-eclipse was closer to being lynched than Shin at the time of my switch, and between her and Refa, I have more of a reason to be wary of her.

-What. Even if eclipse was killed, flipped scum and cleared fleur in the process, we would have no guarantee of fleur's opinions being accurate.

-It's still a while until deadline, no need to consolidate (if this could be called that). Keep your vote on the slightly more active, higher priority scumread instead of the less active secondary scumread.

Your Eclipse vote is reading more and more like a votepark.

[Green Poet]

Invested this much already, may as well respond to bearclaw again. Going to attempt using spoiler tags this time so that I don't throw another wall at those who aren't concerned.

1) This is still weak reasoning, Why would the voteswitch be scummy other than as a potential defense? I can see questioning it but not using to lead a case through half a phase.

2) No she asked you why you were being so hesitant. She said that "I can understand being new to the game". Her criticisms weren't about you being new (that would be the worst case ever btw) they were about you being hesitant to do stuff and you responded by saying that you're new.

3) I was getting a "new scumbuddy gets coached by experienced scumbuddy" vibe from the whole thing (nothing to base the read around but worth bringing up at least), I missed Xinny's post and that is a valid reason so consider this to be conceded. (I didn't give examples because it was more the lack of the comments and the sudden influx of confidence)

4) Unsure what your point is, I'm not talking about inexperience with that point, I'm talking about how your sheeping is a problem. Sheeping is bad because it doesn't add to discussion, early-game we need discussion even more, how is sheeping earlygame not a problem? There's no real difference but pressing a case against an active poster will generate more discussion then voteparking an inactive.

5) Not really (no recent posts is probably her being busy btw). If it's hard to pick out scummy things why is she the top of your scumlist? Why not look at other, more active, people who will be more likely to respond to your points quickly?

6) What. Even if eclipse was killed, flipped scum and cleared fleur in the process, we would have no guarantee of fleur's opinions being accurate.

7) It's still a while until deadline, no need to consolidate (if this could be called that). Keep your vote on the slightly more active, higher priority scumread instead of the less active secondary scumread.

1) A lack of other cases prompted me to keep trying to go for Shin. My other immediate thought was that voteswitching serves no purpose that early on, except to gauge reactions, and the practicality of that was voided already, as explained in previous posts.

2) In other words, I haven't been able to gather any solid cases, which has been established.

3) I guess there's not much to argue on this anymore, then.

4) Ah, I see your point. I actually have no excuses for sheeping/being unable to come up with cases, besides, again, inexperience. Still, I don't quite see why I would try so hard as scum, not knowing that sheeping is a scumtell.

5) Lurking's an effective tactic for scum, yes? And again, it's her scumread against someone I think is town, and her stated disinclination to post, that makes me think she's scummy. Her inactivity by itself is not the main cause of my suspicion.

6) I didn't say we could take everything Fleur's said at granted at that point, merely that this would verify the integrity behind her speculations. This is invariably a good thing.

7) Will do, thanks for the advice.

[eclipse]

I can't sit up long enough to make any sort of coherent anything. I'll need a sub.

[Grace]

I need a sub for eclipse. PM me if you want the spot.

[BBM]

Crap, there are 24 less hours in the phase than I thought there were. I should be able to make a post or two in the morning, but after that I don't think I'll be able to post before phase end.

I would be fine with lynching either Refa or RD.

Bearclaw/Xinny- why is "I'm new" not a valid excuse for being hesitant about your reads? How confident of your reads were either of you in your first game? This seems to be the main reason for the Green Poet wagon, which is why I don't support it.

I don't really like want to lynch SB. Looking at the wagon, RD reads like he should be voting Fleur and still hasn't explained why he isn't. Shinori and Marth both seem to be voting SB because of long back-and-forths with Refa that don't really give a hint towards his beliefs about Refa, and for not having much other content. The former is fair enough, but the latter seems mostly borne of the fact that SB hasn't posted in almost 24 hours. It seems more like he's absent than lurking to me.

Speaking of absent players, where did kirsche go?

[Radiant Dragon]

Here we go! These posts take a lot longer than I remember.

Refa: I don't like Refa's case against Shin, for many the same reasons that have already been posted. He seems to blow Shin's self-defense post over my vote for him a little out of proportion and claims Boron's attack on his reasoning was a defense on Shin. That's... most of what's he's contributed so far. I don't think there's much more to be said about this issue, however. Said he was going to try and crank out a new post, never got around to it (mind you, I'm not saying this is bad or anything. RL happens).

Shinori: I do agree with some of his points against SB. However, he then goes to talk about 'gut feelings' and 'being lazy' about some people, which could be interpreted as a scum trying to coast while appearing to be contributing. His luck getting FFXIII-3 early is an easily explainable excuse.

Fleur: It's my opinion that some of her points are not very well thought-out and/or meaningful, but that doesn't mean she's scum. I am still a little suspicious of her, but I'm getting more of a 'Townie doing everything to help she can think of' read on her now than I did earlier. I've already replied to her most recent posts.

Shin: I don't know what to think of Shin at the moment. He's hard to read. I agree with much of what he's said, but I can't say I'm getting a Town read out of him.

BBM: Kind of like Shin, I agree with much of what he has posted. I am getting more of a Town read from him than I am Shin, however.

SB: He's still refused to answer my question about eclipse (although I'm not exactly blameless for not bringing it up until now). I asked why he thought eclipse had dismissed the points she had made. In addition, he still seems content to vote park on eclipse despite recent developments without any further justification. His interaction with Refa gives me the impression that he's trying to contribute while participating in the 'easy' discussions, and most of his only post today is him complaining about the fact my vote is still on him.

Green: I'm still getting a 'new player doing her best to keep up and speak her mind' feel from her posts. Leaning Town, but a null-read at worst. I don't agree with lynching an inactive today, however.

Wen: Doesn't trust himself to do any analysis, decides to act on a 'gut feeling' and try to build a 'misdirected lynch' on me. Doesn't post any thoughts on anyone else and doesn't give any other reasoning for his vote. I understand better than most the shock of playing NOC again after playing mostly OC before, but this takes that to a new level. Hopefully his performance will improve later on.

eclipse: I don't really agree with her points about BBM or her attitude of not posting unless she feels the current activity is worth the trouble. While I can theoretically understand her points about Fleur trying to act inexperienced, I can't say for sure whether that's what's really going on or not. Can't say much more about her though, and like the rest of the inactives, I don't want to see an eclipse('s sub) lynch today.

Bearclaw: Boron felt Townish to me, but Bearclaw hasn't done much besides make an argument to the effect of Green Poet acting like inexperienced scum and voteparking eclipse. Not sure I quite agree with this line of reasoning, but I'll watch and see where it leads.

Can't really say much about the others due to inactivity. At this point, I'm actually going to stick to my SB vote until he convinces me otherwise.

[Bluedoom]

I have exams 2morrow so i can't do much. Its cool tho, flan shud be back next d phase.

One thing to note is bearclaw's play being inconsistent w/ boron's. He hasn't said a thing about refa yet and i don't think boron found gp scummy? This isn't necessarily scummy although i do think he hasn't made an effort to read his predecessor's posts. Need more from him besides a gp read.

[BBM]

I don't see how Bearclaw's reads being inconsistent with Boron's makes a difference. They're different people and are likely to have different reads. Just because from Bearclaw's POV all of Boron's posts came from a townie mindset doesn't mean that her reads are any more likely to be correct.

Wen didn't try and build a misdirected lynch. He said that if one happened, that was better than a no lynch. I'll get to the rest of that wall in the morning.

[FleurDeGlace]

bearclaw and Sangyul are two separate players but I think that bearclaw should still address Sangyul's points. They may be different players but they are holding the same playerslot so bearclaw still has to be accountable for Sangyul's ideas and arguments.

He does not need to have the same point of view as her but I think a simple analysis from him about Sangyul's posts and what he agrees or disagrees with is warranted.

[charlie_]

I pretty much slept through a huge chunk of yesterday and didn't get much done as a result. That's pretty much the fault of me being ill, so I'd rather not get called out on that. Especially when inactivity is null at the best of times. I do agree I should probably move my vote from eclipse right now due to her lack of posts and sub request (holy shit why are there so many of those.)

I haven't said much on Refa because I honestly don't know. I do agree with some of the cases on him but when the period where it was a back and forth between us happened. Wouldn't object to lynching here, but RD is worse imo.

RD is still bad for voteparking me based on like, 3 things. I'm pretty sure I answered this before but eclipse brought up points she could have easily used for an ok RVS vote at the time but then basically said they didn't mean anything and then proceeded to handwave my attack on her telling me that I missed part of her post, which I didn't. My vote is still on eclipse because I haven't done anything period for 24 hours almost, and "only taking part in easy discussion" is what? I have no idea what you're talking about here, and comsidering nobody but Refa was actually posting at that point it would've been impossible for me to generate reads on people there.

A lot of the other people he addresses with his wallpost kinda look like padding more than anything else, Shinori and Green are null/waffles, a couple of them are just townreads and one is basically "inactivity is bad". His other content hasn't exactly been stellar either.

I'm null on Green/Fleur, they're just playing like general newbies rather than in an alignment indicative way. Don't want to lynch bearclaw or Shin. I feel like Shinori is ok too but its a weaker read than the others.

##Vote: RD

now screw you all i'm going back to sleep

[Refa]

Shit these walls of text.

I think Refa's arguments are horrible and he's trying to discredit all suspicion thrown at him but I also think he's probably town. Like, if he was scum he wouldn't be as gung-ho as he is. Scum!Refa wouldn't be very confident to say that every case thrown at him is unreasonable or illogical. If anything I'm reminded of his Semi-Precious Mafia play.

I hate my meta. ;\ Reading these last..."few" pages and ISOing Shin/other people who are scummy. I've been told that my push sucked by like every other player, so either everyone else is scum (possible) or I actually messed up (less possible obviously).