AM/PM 2 Mafia - GAME OVER

[Refa]

That's actually not something I'm certain about, but I wanted to see how many of the Elie wagon thought Blitz was scum too. Seeing as I'm much more comfortable and confident lynching Blitz than I am lynching Elie, I'm hoping I can get a wagon shift there.

Sure, it'll help me get a better read on you (not sure what to make of a Town!Blitz flip, but Scum!Blitz will make you confirmed town because you were like the only person pushing him today IIRC...uh, I've just kind of skimmed today so correct me if I'm wrong there).

##Unvote

##Vote: Blitz

[Makaze]

##Votal please.

[Terrador]

Yeah, I'm the only one to so much as mention "let's lynch Blitz" today as a serious option, let alone make a vote/try to start a wagon.

[Terrador]

Er, you know, until GLORIOUS SHEEPING begins!

[SB.]

@Snike, assuming that the numbers started at 5/3/1 for day players is really unreasonable because town would get rolled quickly.

I don't disagree with Terra's Blitz vote but I want him to explain why he thinks he's a superior lynch to Eli because I don't really get his paranoia over wanting to lynch Eli. It's really confusing. I feel like Strawman's vote on Blitz is null,

Refa, what do you think of BBM's actual content? I agree that Strawman's switch is /weird/ but there's no reason for it to be motivated by BBM's alignment because BBM wasn't under any pressure at the time so it's not like he was trying to save a scumbuddy or anything like that. I think the interactions is null.

Also, can you go more in depth on your Marth townread? I'm still reading him (since he's the only guy in the PoE pool who has more than five posts or so...) and I'm kind of on the fence so I want you to explain your opinion there.

The Prims kill kind of makes me suspect Rapier/Snike considering he was being asked to get swapped to the day phase and would probably be pushing the slot.

[Refa]

Assuming Blitz is scum, the last day scum is somewhere in between SB/Snike (uh...not counting myself but yeah). Probably should read them later.

[Sunwoo]

##Votal please.

I have work in about 15 minutes, if neither j00 nor eclipse gets it by then I'll compile votals when I get back.

[Refa]

Refa, what do you think of BBM's actual content? I agree that Strawman's switch is /weird/ but there's no reason for it to be motivated by BBM's alignment because BBM wasn't under any pressure at the time so it's not like he was trying to save a scumbuddy or anything like that. I think the interactions is null.

Also, can you go more in depth on your Marth townread? I'm still reading him (since he's the only guy in the PoE pool who has more than five posts or so...) and I'm kind of on the fence so I want you to explain your opinion there.

The Prims kill kind of makes me suspect Rapier/Snike considering he was being asked to get swapped to the day phase and would probably be pushing the slot.

It's all good (based purely on content, not so sure tonewise), but like I said in my night announcement, I'm worried about the fact that he keeps on casing town. This would not bother me about anyone else. Oh, when I was talking about interactions I meant from BBM's side of things. Unless interactions are super incriminating from flipped scum's side of things, I think it's kind of dickish to scumread someone based off of that.

Uh...it's mostly based off of his list post and his tone. He's much more lackadaisical as town, as seen in .Hack, and his reads less substantial (also he tends to lurk like a chump, see Code Geass).

That's reasonable. I'd vote them over you based on my zero rereads.

[Terrador]

SB: it's not just that Blitz is significantly more scummy than Elie (he is), but there's more content to look at. Not by an enormous margin, sure, but I really dislike the prospect of a lynch on one content post.

I do think that Elie needs to be subbed out yesterday, though.

[Snike]

@Makaze: Blitz hasn't been able to post in thread since the end of day 1, which matches what he said in his only d1 post. You can verify this by looking at the phase end posts. I have no idea what happened with whatever LOC he has, though, as I just subbed in this morning. Can anyone vet any contact with him?

I don't necessarily disagree with 12/5/1 but that follows the 2/3 town standard numbers, so it's easy to claim. Especially when the ITP 'outed' himself after d1.

(Aside: Not impressed with no scans on Quote. I trust the claim, but you scan the claim anyways. If there's an inconsistency, apply rope to ITP and suspend from rafter/tree/high place and let air dry overnight. This kills the wolf. On the other hand, if it's verified, we cooperate. )

Are these lies? Not necessarily, but I'm skeptical about the day numbers if only because there's a mayor, a vote-enabler variant, and a persuader confirmed in this setup. It could very well be 2/2 right now, which would give Makaze a bit of towncred.

@Terrador: Rule 14. And I'm pretty sure it's been done in multiball setups. FE10 might've been a case for it, but it's been a while since I've played forum mafia.

@Both: Read rule 3. Either Elie has a personal matter, he's flaking, or he's faking inactivity. If the second, he will be modkilled or subbed out. Lynching him is wasting a ML at this point. Having said that, if he's still around d3 with little to no content improvement, he hangs. In other words, let the mods sort [him] out for right now.

Blitz does need to be looked at hard, but not because of falling off the map (except late d1). I had some crib notes on him, so I'll just quote those real fast:

-Blitz instant scumread on using an announcer? Also there's a difference between good rolefishing and bad rolefishing??? His readlist is kinda waffly. :/ last post is sort of stream of consciousness style. The hypocrisy point is kind of weak considering his admission in the read post.... Then he votes SHinori for itp and flakes. :/

I'd consolidate on him if necessary, especially due to the hypocrisy part, but he isn't my primary candidate today.

So who is? I'm glad you asked.

I don't agree with Mancer's arguments, especially because it reads a lot more like nitpicking. EX: The Eury WC argument, (the N0 not making a fuss thing, to nitpick, I think was due to Mancer trying to shut down the discussion [posts #13 -~#42]), then on the blitz ISO, he either fails to notice or misrepresents part of the blitz post talking about his day status (#376). Later he does this to Junko in #403, when both are cases of stream of consciousness style posts (mentioned in quoted notes). What really rustles my jimmies is the downplay of the Eury lynch. From what I understand, while SB supposedly misrepped Mancer's reads, this one wasn't refuted by either Refa or Mancer:

-Eury is likely scum but he wants to give her a chance to explain herself before she gets lynched.

Then, in his second (first content) post of the night, Mancer says this:

There's nothing much to garner off of Eury's lynch since she hasn't had much interactions with anyone. Of note is Makaze's reluctance to lynch Eury though which could stem from scum intent.

Considering he pushed the Eury lynch so hard, it looks like an attempt to abandon ship.

Aside: Advocating a policy vigging of an until-then inactive who was in trouble with Rule 3 , then turning around and criticizing people for reading cop is sort of hypocritical.

So, I don't really like him very much. I actually was going to vote him, but then I saw Makaze.

Makaze opens up with voting the effectively silenced (except for announce) terrador, then later ,word for word, says "Wow. You guys can't read me for shit." Later on he tunnels Prims after the terrador train doesn't go anywhere, which in retrospect looks bad. I don't necessarily dock him points for that, but, well, as far as I can tell, other than that and Seriously Bananas for a short period of time, he's been gunning after the low-content players. Just because two of them have a mascot that can be found in the breakfast aisle, doesn't mean they're buddies. It's easy to make a case against people who haven't been talking.

##Vote: Makaze

He might not be a serial killer, but he's trying to be a cereal killer.

TL;DR: I think Mancer's arguments are more on semantics than content, and Makaze is going after low-content players for easier mislynches. Voting Makaze atm.

Pedit: @ SB: Not with mayormaker, vote enabler/disabler variants, and vigilante running around. We sort of have two vote-manipulation roles confirmed in night phase.

[Refa]

Oh, did Prims make any of you guys mayors?

[Terrador]

Unofficial Votals (assuming Via is compelled to vote Elie and no other vote chicanery is taking place):

Elieson (4): Quote, Makaze, Lord Gaius, SB

Blitz (2): Terrador, Refa

Makaze (1): Snike

Voteless (1): Shinori

[Snike]

Crap, I typoed.

The heat is mocking me.

Are these lies? Not necessarily, but I'm skeptical about the day numbers if only because there's a mayor, a vote-enabler variant, and a persuader confirmed in this setup. It could very well be 3/1 right now, which would give Makaze a bit of towncred.

Bolded edit.

Sorry about the wall.

[SB.]

Snike, if you think Makaze is scummy for casing the night!lurkers, what do you think of players other than Mancer? Also, do you think that Mancer would come up with a role like that to fakeclaim on his own?

I think Snike's content is alright overall but it didn't really sway me either way so shrug.

I kind of feel iffy about BBM now after going back to check what Refa meant (because the Junko suspicion felt really reaching) but Marth has a weird soft defense of Blitz (that bothers me regardless of Blitz's alignment) because it feels like he's making excuses for him. I'm also kind of bugged by how I was put as equal to Strawman as far as day reads go because it'd be really easy for Marth to flip either way if he needed to bus or not but maybe I'm just paranoid here. Mafia sucks.

[Snike]

Wrt Makaze It isn't just the night players he cased; he started off going after the silenced player(terrador) pretty hard, which sort of tipped me off to it. My issue with that is that associative reads off of those players' flips, other than a blatant association with one feline by the name of Tony, are going to trend towards being limited at best due to their lack of content.

I haven't reread and read straight ISOs yet, but I'll try to do some brief summations based off of a skim and elaborate when prompted. I don't exactly want to wall again. PEDIT: GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

Day players:

Gaius: Blitz read sort of 180'd and it looks like this morning he discounted the non-d1 posts. Is this a case of people not reading rules/mechanics? because it's calling Blitz on disappearing despite the previously mentioned silence. ALSO Hasn't mentioned Mancer since the first read post. What do you think about him now? I'd like to know, especially since he was null-scum initially, yet you took his numbers at face value.

Shinori: I think he's town, the reaction on eury wagon seemed genuine from what I've experienced from him. I think he tends to display more emotion when townsided.

SB: I'm not sure I'm fond of you atm. There's the supposed misrep from Mancer, as well as the fact that the Eury vote was incredibly weak.

Refa: I believe Refa is town, but that's mostly based off of some conjecture wrt last night. I'm not sure if I want to share it publicly, but I'd suggest doctor on him tonight (if we have one) in general. I think rule 14 says persuader as a day role is a null indicator, so I disagree with the Makaze read (if it wasn't already obvious)..

Quote: I believe his claim, but as I mentioned previously he should've been scanned.

Terrador: He's town. His content doesn't strike me as misleading, but I do disagree with the Blitz/elie wagons. I already side with him on Blitz vs Elie but again, Mancer/Makaze 2015.

Rapier: 500% scum, would turbo. I legit had a case on him that I had to throw out when Poly showed up and I subbed in. Ugh.

Night players:

2. Elieson: List post and nothing else since. That's not enough to build a case/get associative reads. See wall for opinion towards that. If he's sick (read Poly) the artificial tone Junko mentioned might be a side effect of that, but I somewhat doubt it.

3. BBM: I don't think he's been throwing solid accusations at people other than the elietrain, which looks suspect. At the same time, his content seems OK otherwise. What do you think about junko now that strawman flipped? pls respond since your case was she's elie's buddy getting on the ducky wagon.

4. Blitz: I mentioned Previously I didn't like his points in my little note blurb, but I think the wagon while he's silenced is sketchy.

6. Marf: His #423 doesn't read like scum Marf to me, at least back in the days where I had hid in the haze. I have to wonder if BBM VS Marf is a townie slapfight, because I'm not getting a solid read.

8. Junk0: Other part of the vote and phase enablers. I think he's town because of Strawman's demise + mancer tunneled on him. Especially the former.

9. Poly: Calling out Terrador on not posting (due to being effectively silenced) and calling for policy vig (ironic) doesn't give me the best feeling, even though he retracted it. I'm not going to fault him for the illness, but saying that is a bit ridiculous. Leaning slightly scum. Would like to see more from him though, so hopefully night phase will be active. One thing to note is that his null-reads on non-mentioned turned to town-reads.

[Makaze]

@Snike: Can you give your overall lynch priority now?

[Percivalé]

i agree w/ snike, scan me so i can win

hi i'm back i have like 5 physics assignments to do but i'm reading mafia. sorry i ahven't really been around today

[Snike]

Hope you don't mind that I don't mind.

Right now I'm promoting a lynch on you, but my order otherwise would be Mancer, then SB, then Blitz, then elie, then poly or Gaius.

For you math nerds that's

Makaze > Mancer > Srs Bsns > Blitz > Elieson > Polydeuces = Gaius.

also dammit my bbm read has a typo. Junko is a guy not a girl. My bad.

[Sunwoo]

Unofficial Votals (assuming Via is compelled to vote Elie and no other vote chicanery is taking place):

Elieson (4): Quote, Makaze, Lord Gaius, SB

Blitz (2): Terrador, Refa

Makaze (1): Snike

Voteless (1): Shinori

I believe these are correct.

[Sunwoo]

Yay loudspeakers

"BBM.

@SB- You're probably right; my Junko read was reaching. Just felt uncomfortable suddenly cuz I felt he was coasting, so when I saw something that bothered me I guess I latched on to it because I was having trouble scumreading active people. But yeah he’s probably town since no reason to bus Strawman over reading Elie like he said he would.


@Refa- Strawman was vague about all his reads unless pushed to clarify so what's bad specifically about him being vague about me? Also, the more I think about it I feel Marth is scum. Other people are trying to find scum through PoE but he's somehow scumreading almost half the game? His Eury lynch reaction reads like scum telling off town. Despite townreading her he made no attempt to defend her at deadline, instead defending SB whom he said later he would have lynched.


Out of words; Elie>Marth>Blitz"

[Snike]

The rays are giving way, but soon will go to sleep. Hope that gives you guys a starting point. I get off early tomorrow, so more to come then.

[Refa]

Got two courier messages from Mancer:

He doesn't like SB and Strawman's interactions. What was strange was how Straw said he agreed with SB's night announcements but wanted a more concise case when the lynch was incoming (not sure if I paraphrased this correctly because this makes no sense to me). Another weird thing was when he asked SB about Makaze even though it didn't sound like he was scumreading him (uh...I think Mancer means Straw scumreading SB, pronouns suck). Just came off as a question, however when it was near deadline he was all like "yeah, I suspected him for that" (again, pretty sure Mancer means Straw suspecting SB). It just seems like a distancing attempt just in case town lynched SB. Basically he feels that Strawman made up some excuse to vote SB and his motivation was not townie. He'd go for an Elie lynch over Blitz but is paranoid about that because of his read on SB. He's also uncomfortable with SB ignoring the idea of day scum just because of the ITP claim. Mancer would rather lynch a night player over a day player today but says that town shouldn't dismiss the idea of day scum (or in this case, I figure he means more day scum) because that's exactly how town loses.

Too lazy to paraphrase his second message ATM, will do so soon.

[Refa]

OK, let's do this!

He figures that Junk targeted Strawman and the night to day switcher targeted Prims, possibly at Prims' request. This proves Junk as town because scum wouldn't want Strawman to be switched to the night phase (well, it's probably more like scum wouldn't want Strawman's Ascetic shot to get used up, but sure same basic idea). He advocates a Blitz lynch for whatever he's already said. Blitz has more content than Elieson (which means more interactions), so his flip will be more useful for us.

Mancer doubted the Eury lynch despite finding her scummy because she had less than two content posts without any significant player interactions. This meant that her flip wouldn't be valuable to town. Additionally, Blitz was around for D1 and could defend himself, which would make him a better lynch candidate. Because we have a claimed non town lynch for D1, lynching an inactive player in the same conditions would be bad play.

Makaze is day scum. When Prims and Mancer asked for a persuader claim, he claimed late. He also believes that Mayor and Day Persuader is too much vote control for town.

[Refa]

OK, so uh the first courier message was from Junk, not Mancer (my bad, you really should put your name though). He sent me another one.

So Junk meant that on N1, Strawman said on HIS announcement that he was agreeing with the SB scumreads but still wanted a more concise case when people were thinking about lynching SB. He says I was right on the other parts though, so uh go me. Anyways although Junk was feeling uncomfortable with SB suggesting that all of the dayscum were pretty much gone, it makes no sense for Scum!SB to say that unless he wanted to PoE his night time buddies because there's definitely at least one night scum unless SB is gambiting. Junk doesn't know what to do, he says to just lynch Elieson maybe. He can't really think of anything else to say but just wanted to get this out because he screwed up on his wording from before.

[ZoesMad]

Reading thread now, but saw Snike's post and am answering since it has questions directed at me and since they subbed.

Day players:Gaius: Blitz read sort of 180'd and it looks like this morning he discounted the non-d1 posts. Is this a case of people not reading rules/mechanics? because it's calling Blitz on disappearing despite the previously mentioned silence. ALSO Hasn't mentioned Mancer since the first read post. What do you think about him now? I'd like to know, especially since he was null-scum initially, yet you took his numbers at face value. I think he's town, the reaction on eury wagon seemed genuine from what I've experienced from him. I think he tends to display more emotion when townsided.

Regarding Blitz, my original read post came at a time when I had not seen his awful Shinori vote, and since then he hasn't done anything. No couriers or announcements, nothing else besides that one post on D1 either. He was mainly a gut read in my original post.

Mancer, on the other hand, I think is town. I mostly had him as scum associated with Eury if she flipped scum. His numbers seem to make sense from a logical standpoint too.