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Hillary's "I'm a woman so therefore I'm not establishment" thing is getting old. You don't get almost 400 Superdelegates without having some connection to the establishment. Now that she and Sanders are having these 1-on-1 debates, we can start to see some cracks in their rhetorics, and that's a big one for her.

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She's already getting hammered for the Wall Street speeches transcripts, which she won't release.

The Nevada primary is a serious bummer, but at least the margin was really narrow. Hoping Super Tuesday will be in Bernie's favor.

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Considering how Sanders was way behind a few months ago (in some cases by at least 25%), his defeat by only 5.2% (with 88% of the vote in) is still impressive. The Clintons have long been a hit with blacks so it's not a surprise to see Hillary get the black vote.

Edited by Alazen
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They're currently tied in terms of unpledged delegates...though I'm super pessimistic about South Carolina after this.

Now that it looks like Trump has this nomination locked down, I'm still convinced that Sanders is the free world's best hope at stopping him.

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I think Sanders vs Trump would be way too swingy because of how extreme both candidates are (or at least, are perceived to be). The moderates could go either way there. Meanwhile in Trump vs Hillary the moderates would be more likely to go for Hillary than Trump.

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I actually don't think the whole left right moderate/extreme spectrum really applies in this election cycle. Trump might seem far right because of his loud mouthed nature, but he's in actuality throwing the whole conventional conservative book out of the window and showing that it's working. I mean ffs he was using democrat party talking points to take down Bush and still landslided South Carolina. He's running a populist campaign that panders to white working class people, even if it means bashing trade deals, calling out the war in Iraq, talking about campaign finance, or talking about expanding healthcare. As polarizing as that he is, I feel like that strategy will work well against someone who is as establishment as it gets. I think Sanders's genuine new deal populism is the best antidote to Trump's fake demogogue populism.

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It's hard to know I think. Because it's safe to say that Hillary is generally disliked by Americans, but on the other hand if Bernie gets that nomination the GOP's probably gonna crack out some ads with a hammer and sickle over his face. It's also a question of who will bring in the most voters though, and that could be Bernie.

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Sanders' path to the nomination is now much more difficult. If you looked at the post I made right before the Iowa caucus, I projected Bernie would win Nevada. Hillary ended up winning that state by a whopping 5.5 point margin (compared to her 0.2 point victory in Iowa) . She maintains a 24-point lead in South Carolina, which puts a Sanders victory in the state out of the question. The only states on Super Tuesday that look safe for Bernie are Massachussetts and Vermont. He could potentially swing Minnesota and Colorado into his column if he finishes with a "strong" second place showing in South Carolina, which is unlikely.

On a side note, would any of you guys vote for Hillary Clinton in the general election?

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Yeah of course they will, but I like to think red scare is decades past its expiration date.

Only with millennials.

Trump uses populist rhetoric, but he's actually pretty moderate in several respects. His results in South Carolina show the kind of appeal he has compared to traditional conservatives. Whether he wins or loses a general election, he's destroying the GOP as it is now; which is a good thing.

I think the issues with superdelegates will likely end up being used as ammo by Trump in a race against Hillary. He could point out how the game was rigged against Bernie from the start.

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Sanders' path to the nomination is now much more difficult. If you looked at the post I made right before the Iowa caucus, I projected Bernie would win Nevada. Hillary ended up winning that state by a whopping 5.5 point margin (compared to her 0.2 point victory in Iowa) . She maintains a 24-point lead in South Carolina, which puts a Sanders victory in the state out of the question. The only states on Super Tuesday that look safe for Bernie are Massachussetts and Vermont. He could potentially swing Minnesota and Colorado into his column if he finishes with a "strong" second place showing in South Carolina, which is unlikely.

On a side note, would any of you guys vote for Hillary Clinton in the general election?

I can't vote, but if I could I would only vote for Clinton if she was running against Cruz or Trump, and then very grudgingly. I really don't want her in office.
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Yeah people make a big fuss about trump's success but who am I supposed to be relieved about getting the nomination instead? The whole rnc platform is toxic as hell, and with the mccains, romneys, and bushes out (not that I liked them either), were left with a group where trump is far from the scariest.

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There's something about Ted Cruz that really rubs me the wrong way. I can't put my finger on it, but I feel like he's even more dangerous than Trump in a way almost independent from policy.

Edited by TheCosmicDude
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Not worried about Cruz because I can't see him getting far outside of the South and that's beginning to show. I am more afraid of the increasingly popular authoritarian potentially getting access to government power - I don't care if he's more moderate than the rest of the field. I'm sure Nixon was, too.

I'll be surprised if Rubio manages to make a dent in the Trump train now, though: he looks the part of a polished establishment candidate, I guess, but that hasn't been doing anyone any favors during this election cycle. What else does he have?

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Cruz would have to get winner-takes-all in Texas to stay competitive, which won't happen. If he doesn't drop out after Super Tuesday, or at least March 15th, I'll be impressed.

Rubio was elected as a Tea Party candidate who quickly became part of the establishment his voters wanted to change. He betrayed his electorate, particularly with his involvement in the Gang of Eight bill. I can't see him winning any state except maybe Minnesota; he definitely won't win Florida, his home state.

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I think that debate gaffe solidified my view of Rubio. On the surface he looks like the perfect, most electable Republican - young, charismatic, and non-white (like a certain president). The difference is that you get past that surface and there's...nothing. He's basically a perfect puppet for the RNC and his charisma is basically only good in so far as he's really good at delivering the lines the donors wrote for him. He doesn't really have any ideas or coherent campaign message beyond bashing Obama's presidency and the usual "America is the greatest country" stuff.

He's probably the only person who has a remote chance at beating Trump, by taking the votes of Jeb, Kasich, Christie, etc. But doesn't look like it's going to happen so far.

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There's something about Ted Cruz that really rubs me the wrong way. I can't put my finger on it, but I feel like he's even more dangerous than Trump in a way almost independent from policy.

i agree. the only indication in my mind for why cruz would be a more desirable candidate than trump is because his win in the GOP primaries would represent a less undesirable underbelly of the US population.

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Kind of off topic but Garon = Donald Trump and Hinoka = Hillary Clinton? That seems to be the general election scenario we are gravitating toward now.

Anyway I was on a progressive site called The Intercept, and on this one article (https://theintercept.com/2016/02/24/with-trump-looming-should-dems-take-a-huge-electability-gamble-by-nominating-hillary-clinton/) I noticed in the comments section, a lot of people were saying they would either vote Trump, green, or sit out of the election.

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Kind of off topic but Garon = Donald Trump and Hinoka = Hillary Clinton? That seems to be the general election scenario we are gravitating toward now.

Anyway I was on a progressive site called The Intercept, and on this one article (https://theintercept.com/2016/02/24/with-trump-looming-should-dems-take-a-huge-electability-gamble-by-nominating-hillary-clinton/) I noticed in the comments section, a lot of people were saying they would either vote Trump, green, or sit out of the election.

I wish, then America would be a monarchy.
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