Fire Emblem Heroes General Discussion and Links

[Othin]

On 4/9/2020 at 8:04 PM, Othin said:

Hmm. So, with no pity rate, any given orb (before its color is determined) has a 0.75% chance of being each focus unit. That means a given session has about a 3.69% chance of having that focus unit somewhere in it.

Player A wants one copy of Lilith, and decides to do the 40 summons by spending 135 orbs on 8 full pulls, stopping early if they hit Lilith. On those 8 sessions, Lilith has about a 26% chance of showing up early. This means a 74% chance of spending the full 135 orbs, or a 26% chance of getting to stop somewhere in the middle.

Player B also wants one copy of Lilith, and decides to do the 40 summons by spending up to 175 orbs on sniping blue, stopping early if they hit Lilith. Since they're only taking about 1/4 of the summons that show up, let's say it takes 32 summoning sessions instead of 8, which I think is not exactly right but seems close enough. Starting 32 sessions costs 160 orbs, 5 free summons saves 25 orbs, 8 more mid-session summons costs another 32, so that's 167 orbs. Over the course of those 32 sessions, Lilith has about a 70% chance of showing up early. This means a 30% chance of spending the full 167 orbs, or a 70% chance of getting to stop somewhere in the middle.

"Stopping somewhere in the middle" covers a whole range of options, but let's say it averages out to spending about half the full orb total. Again, that's wrong but should be close enough to right. So, Player A has a 74% chance of spending 135 orbs and a 26% chance of stopping midway at an average of 67.5 orbs, which works out to an overall average of 117.4 orbs. Player B has a 30% chance of spending 167 orbs and a 70% chance of stopping midway at an average of 83.5 orbs, which works out to an overall average of 108.55 orbs.

So Player B is still spending fewer orbs, but it's not actually that big of a difference. Interesting.

Let's introduce Player C, who's willing to pull two colors. So that's like 16 sessions, which costs like 151 orbs. Lilith has a 45% chance of showing up early and dropping that to like 75.5, and a 55% chance of not doing that. That works out to an overall average of 117.025 orbs. That's... surprisingly close to Player A. Huh.

Player D would pull all three colors that don't have a demote. I was going to do them third, but they run into the issue of averaging 10.67 sessions, and I didn't feel like figuring out to handle that earlier, and I still don't now. At a glance, I think Player D might end up with the highest average orb cost, even though I think their overall orbs-to-premium-units rate would be the highest of the bunch (since they're pulling all three colors that have a premium focus unit and skipping the one that doesn't). Speaking of which, that raises the question of what that rate would look like for the other three players as well. But I've stretched this hacked-together estimation as far as I really want to for now, to be honest.

Okay, guess that "for now" ran out.

Player E does 20 pulls for just blue, then adds a second color for the other 20 pulls. So that's like 16 sessions for the first part, costing about 71 orbs, and then 8 sessions for the second part, costing about 88 orbs, for a total of 159 orbs. The odds that Lilith doesn't show up in any of those 24 sessions is about 40.5%, so that's a 59.5% chance of showing up early. But it matters how early. She's got a 45.2% chance of showing up in the first 16, which means a 14.3% chance of showing up in the other 8, and of course a 40.5% chance of not showing up until the free summon. Which gives an estimated orb cost of: (0.452*35.5)+(0.143*115)+(0.405*159) = 96.9 orbs? That sounds too low relative to the others, probably because this one was calculated differently and ended up interacting differently with the inaccurate parts. Although maybe it's just that adding more colors later on is that advantageous? It certainly seems like a good idea.

Let's turn up the dial on this. Player F, who's probably the least realistic hypothetical player so far, does 20 pulls for just blue and then pulls every color for the other 20 pulls. So the first part is still 16 sessions, 71 orbs, 45.2% chance of showing up there (35.5 orbs). The second part is guaranteed to be 4 sessions, 80 orbs. This means a 47.1% chance of not showing up at all (151 orbs), and therefore a 7.7% chance of showing up in the second part (111 orbs). So the overall is  (0.452*35.5)+(0.077*111)+(0.471*151) = 95.7 orbs. So, minor savings compared to E, but not much.

If I do end up pulling on this banner, I'll probably use a strategy somewhere close to E. There's probably room to improve that approach, but these calculations have too many inaccuracies to be helpful for that, if they actually even mean much of anything.

[Flying Shogi]

Tempted to pull for Midori and the upcoming Caeda but based on my history, they probably won't get used. Will have to keep saving for the May Legendary/Mythic banner. It's not every day you see Alm and Leif in share a focus. Now if only Gunnthra would share a focus with a unit that I want to pull...

[Baldrick]

Quote

One thing that really frustrates me about Berkut's story is that he's so close to being the type of villain I'd love to hate. If the game properly portrayed his relationship with Rinea as horrifying (the most horrifying part of his story, really), I'd say they nailed it, but it does the opposite. In particular, Rinea comforting Berkut after their deaths - he didn't deserve that.

I feel this needs to be said, I’ll put it in the general discussion thread so it doesn’t further derail the other thread.

The presentation of Berkut’s story is definitely the worst aspect. Iago and Hans might be terrible villains, but at least they aren’t made attractive in order to signal that their actions are forgivable.

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by Baldrick

[Sunwoo]

I miss the time when villains didn't need a sob story telling the audience that they're actually sympathetic and stuff. Because yeah, some antagonists and Camus archetypes are in a tough spot with regards to loyalty and stuff and/or may have had a difficult upbringing, but they are all people who knowingly made their own decisions. Previous games didn't twist themselves into knots nearly as much as the way current games do to try to "humanize" certain villains by giving them sob stories or some convoluted motives.

Something something IS thinks we're all dummies and we need to be explicitly told that certain villainous characters are "actually good" or "victims of circumstance" instead of letting us come to our own conclusions about them.

[Icelerate]

It seems like Oliver will win. Which heron should I S support Oliver with? 

[Tybrosion]

13 minutes ago, Icelerate said:

It seems like Oliver will win. Which heron should I S support Oliver with? 

Reyson just on the basis that he'd absolutely hate that arrangement far more than Leanne would.

[Anacybele]

I have three out of four +10 Ikes now thanks to a certain revival banner! Happy Easter! 😄

[SockPuppet]

I have hundreds of orbs saved for Baby Marth... but Halloween L’Arachel is most likely only a day or so away, so RIP my orbs 🙃 I hope I get her fast...

[silverserpent]

surprised no one's done a topic on the Limit Battles. I thought it was pretty fun. That Phina from February's Legendary banner really came in handy, geyser dance was useful once I got Nagi on that right-side fortress tile. After that, it was a matter of choke holding that point. The infantry sword enemy gave me a little concern,  but she handled him well. I can't wait for next week's challenge. 

[Hilda]

4 minutes ago, silverserpent said:

surprised no one's done a topic on the Limit Battles. I thought it was pretty fun. That Phina from February's Legendary banner really came in handy, geyser dance was useful once I got Nagi on that right-side fortress tile. After that, it was a matter of choke holding that point. The infantry sword enemy gave me a little concern,  but she handled him well. I can't wait for next week's challenge. 

Norne and Regular Marth killed everything the other 2 units just stood there doing nothing. As i mentioned earlier many times, its only Infernal

Not sure what you mean by next week challenges, the next GHB is tomorrow

Edited April 13, 2020 by Hilda

[SockPuppet]

I used Duo Marth (who literally carried), Phina, Spring Catria and Spring Palla. Phina danced Marth every turn so he can snipe everyone, and his bonus doubler helped him survive the last hits. Spring Catira was just there up until the last difficulty in which she sniped a single target, but I feel Marth could’ve done it anyway. Palla was there for moral support lol.

[Tybrosion]

24 minutes ago, Hilda said:

Norne and Regular Marth killed everything the other 2 units just stood there doing nothing.

That was also my clear essentially, just with Duo Marth and evil bab Tiki instead. 

Phina wasn't an option for me, but I clearly didn't need her.

[Michelaar]

In the end I was able to beat it with Katarina, Roderick, Legendary Marth and Clarisse. Katarina was able to take out the Green Dragon first turn and Clarisse managed to take out the Red mage that same turn with some Spd support to ensure a double. Everything went pretty smoothly after that, the trenches assisted me greatly.

[Diovani Bressan]

I created a topic about Limited Hero Battles in the War Room. Feel free to talk about your strategies, share your videos and help each other in these special battles.

 

[Othin]

It's interesting looking back at how the banners from the last few months of 2019 made a point of setting up for this. In addition to the New Heroes banners featuring the first dancers from FE3, FE6, and FE8, the Soiree banner had the first dancers from FE2, FE5, and FE9, and Peony was the first Heroes dancer. Before all that, only FE4, FE7, FE10, FE13, and FE14 had dancers, and now everything except Three Houses and TMS does. 

Edited April 13, 2020 by Othin

[Diovani Bressan]

1 minute ago, Othin said:

It's interesting looking back at how the banners from the last few months of 2019 made a point of setting up for this. In addition to the New Heroes banners featuring the first dancers from FE3, FE6, and FE8, the Soiree banner had the first dancers from FE2, FE5, and FE9, and Peony was the first Heroes dancer. Before all that, only FE4, FE7, FE10, FE13, and FE14 had dancers, and now everything except Three Houses and TMS does. 

I was kinda surprised none of the TMS had sing as assist... and for Three Houses I kinda expect Dorothea to be a infantry mage with Sing. Manuela could also be a candidate.

Well, not to mention that I wouldn't be surprised if the theme of this year dancers banner is the Heron Cup.

[silverserpent]

40 minutes ago, Diovani Bressan said:

I was kinda surprised none of the TMS had sing as assist... and for Three Houses I kinda expect Dorothea to be a infantry mage with Sing. Manuela could also be a candidate.

Well, not to mention that I wouldn't be surprised if the theme of this year dancers banner is the Heron Cup.

I wouldn't mind this. This could bring characters like Dorothea, Marianne and...whoever isn't Dimitri for Blue Lions rep. I'd be too coerced into trying to +10 a dancer version of him...

But yes, a Heron Cup banner would be interesting to see. For guys, I could see them angle in Lorenz. I'd say Ferdi, but that's too soon for an alt.

[Diovani Bressan]

Just now, silverserpent said:

But yes, a Heron Cup banner would be interesting to see. For guys, I could see them angle in Lorenz. I'd say Ferdi, but that's too soon for an alt.

Well, we got a Sothis alt pretty fast...

[Fabulously Olivier]

The SD/NM restriction for this first LHB really leaves a bad impression on me. Namely because SD/NM is my least built game origin team. No full merge projects at all and a serious lack of versatility.

 

 

I really wish the game would just stop with the restricted deployment challenges.

[Karimlan]

48 minutes ago, Diovani Bressan said:

I was kinda surprised none of the TMS had sing as assist... and for Three Houses I kinda expect Dorothea to be a infantry mage with Sing.

The singing versions can be cast in an alternate (i.e, Sword Reinhardt/Sword Catria), or Legendary role (latter may be a reach though).

[Diovani Bressan]

6 minutes ago, Etheus said:

The SD/NM restriction for this first LHB really leaves a bad impression on me. Namely because SD/NM is my least built game origin team. No full merge projects at all and a serious lack of versatility.

I really wish the game would just stop with the restricted deployment challenges.

I kinda like the reused mode. Make me use some units that are in the bench of a while. I would have some complains if the mode had orbs as reward. But since it doesn't have it, no complains from me.

If you have problems, PM1 made a F2P guide.

[Othin]

11 minutes ago, Diovani Bressan said:

I kinda like the reused mode. Make me use some units that are in the bench of a while. I would have some complains if the mode had orbs as reward. But since it doesn't have it, no complains from me.

If you have problems, PM1 made a F2P guide.

Yeah, I like how it pushes me to care about units I wouldn't otherwise - both ones I already have, and ones that now have more appeal to try to pick up like Phina and Larum. I think this is really good for the game, and hopefully it'll go along with continuing to have a good variety of game representation. 

[silverserpent]

1 hour ago, Diovani Bressan said:

Well, we got a Sothis alt pretty fast...

5 months is pretty fast. But Sothis is also insanely popular, Ferdi is a meme. It's in IS' realm of possibilities, but I'd place it on the low end of the spectrum. I'd take Dancing Felix before Ferdi.

[Hilda]

2 hours ago, Etheus said:

The SD/NM restriction for this first LHB really leaves a bad impression on me. Namely because SD/NM is my least built game origin team. No full merge projects at all and a serious lack of versatility.

 

 

I really wish the game would just stop with the restricted deployment challenges.

say wut? This is the first and only mode that has restricted deployment challenges. Aside from the 1 Dancer rule from big maps (which isnt a huge deal) thats it. Olivers GHB is so easy you dont need a full merge project.

[Othin]

5 minutes ago, Hilda said:

Olivers GHB is so easy you dont need a full merge project.

I mean, you really don't need full merge projects for anything, but this in particular is Lunatic-level enemies on a pretty easy map layout. I beat it easily just by throwing together random units I already had on hand, I don't think most of them even had seals.