All Hail the Dancing Manakete: New Banner Revealed

[Lushen]

50 minutes ago, The Geek said:

I thought Priscilla was considered to actually be pretty good since she's on a horse and has the strongest healing spell.

In terms of arena, healers are never good.  She is the best horse healer by far, and fights for the best healer overall spot, but that doesn't make her good.  I do think she belongs in (A) rank if those two get there.  Otherwise they should be moved to (B) down with her. 

Besides, these tiers are going to be useless in a couple days when skill inherit comes out.

[Phoenix_Kensai]

2 hours ago, shadowofchaos said:

A couple that summons together stays together.

Congratulations on getting that Ninian. My first summon on this banner was pretty bad (I don't remember the specifics, but it was all duplicates of characters I don't particularly like), but I didn't have my heart set on anyone in particular, so if my luck went to you I can't complain too much.

Maybe I need to set up one of those summoning circles myself, only in reverse, to repel Donnel.

[Ewwgene]

Do you think I should go for karel? 

Or should I save my orbs and wait for ike? 

[bethany81707]

Well... my first summon on this banner went interestingly.

No five stars, no Elibe characters at all, and only one new character. That new character?

 

Caeda.

...I now have the potential to make a pegasus knight team with Fortify peg, I have all the Akaenian pegasi (still missing Minerva, but I never had luck with wyverns), and I like Caeda anyway. I stand by choosing to summon from that orb.

(Now all I need to do is decide which of the duplicates to merge and which to not even bother merging.)

Edited May 2, 2017 by phineas81707
Cleaning Attachments

[shadowofchaos]

2 hours ago, Ice Dragon said:

Except mine will be, "Please not -Atk again."

 

Also, 'grats to both of you!

I'm not particularly interested in natures... but Belinda and I compared.

Spoiler

From what it looks like at lvl 1, mine has more atk while she had 1 more point in def and hp.

So I haven't kept up with skill inheritance news.

Are we pretty much sacrificing characters for skills?

Like I mean I'd think just for completeness sake I'm giving Ninian the Ice skills.

My 3 star Fir has one. Should I pop 2k feathers at a later time, get her to learn it, and theoretically sacrifice her for Ninian to learn that skill?

Edited March 15, 2017 by shadowofchaos

[The Geek]

3 hours ago, shadowofchaos said:

A couple that summons together stays together.

I need a cute girlfriend to help me summon waifus in phone games.

[Roflolxp54]

15 minutes ago, shadowofchaos said:

So I haven't kept up with skill inheritance news.

Are we pretty much sacrificing characters for skills?

Like I mean I'd think just for completeness sake I'm giving Ninian the Ice skills.

My 3 star Fir has one. Should I pop 2k feathers at a later time, get her to learn it, and theoretically sacrifice her for Ninian to learn that skill?

Based on the limited information given, we do have to sacrifice a unit to transfer up to 3 skills to another unit.

Certain skills cannot be learned due to weapon/movement restrictions. Like Chrom can't transfer Falchion.

Inherited skills will start off as unlearned.

Inherited skills cost 50% more SP to learn, so an inherited skill (not including the costs of learning predecessor skills) can cost up to 750 SP (it may actually be worthwhile to train a non-5-star character all the way to lv. 40 before increasing rarity for the sake of having loads of SP).

And indeed, your Ninian is +Atk/-Def. Belinda's Ninian sounds like she has neutral Def and +HP.

Edited March 15, 2017 by Roflolxp54

[XeKr]

Ninian’s art looks great and she seems to be a solid unit but sorry, I need a green for the team. >_>

Would pull only colorless for Jaffar but the staffbots are eh. Perhaps Minerva next banner, flies, speedy, and stat total pretty solid.

Regardless…

On 3/13/2017 at 3:30 PM, Ryuke said:

This makes sense. I was wondering what you were planning to do in situation where there's no green. (what's the odd of no green? 1/Permute(5)  wow... my prob is awful now. (3/4?) ?) 

For no blue in a whole 5 pull round...

P(Blue) = ~24%

P(NOT Blue) = ~76%

P(No Blues in 5 trials) = P(NOT Blue)^5 = ~25.35%

 

Which actually seems pretty high, now that I’ve actually calculated it. <_<

 

For reference

P(1 Blue in 5 trials) = 40% (no discount)

P(2 Blue in 5 trials) = 25.3% (1 orb discount)

P(3 Blue in 5 trials) = 7.98% (2 orb discount total)

P(4 Blue in 5 trials) = 1.26% (3 orb discount total)

P(5 Blue in 5 trials) = 0.08% (5 orb discount total)

 

At this time (maybe later), I’m not going to calculate expected number of blue pulls given number of orbs, when using the only blue strategy. The easy way is to simulate but maybe there’s some simple analytical solution (?).

 

Just to reiterate, the calculation presented in an earlier post (and bottom of this post) is the probability of Ninian on the current banner, given n number of blue summons. Just estimate how many blue you get, it’s somewhere around orbs/6.

 

On 3/13/2017 at 3:11 PM, XeKr said:

I’ll write out how I think P(Ninian|Green) works later but I quickly calced with Bayes’ Theorem around 2.66% (depends slightly on the rarity of sibling bond characters after the banner ends)

 

For the promised analysis…(we obv know Ninian is Blue now)

This assumes the gacha works by rolling rarity and characters first, then hides them behind the appropriate colors you see on the summons screen. This is the most sensible explanation given the appearance rates paragraph in the Details page, and the fact that there's clearly not a 3% chance of a 5* Focus Green on this banner, given there are no possible 5* Focus Greens.

| notation means ‘given’, so P(Ninian | Blue) is probability of summoning Ninian, under the condition of a blue summon.

P(Ninian | Blue) = P(Blue | Ninian)*P(Ninian)/P(Blue) by Bayes’ Theorem

P(Blue | Ninian) = 1
Self-explanatory

P(Ninian) = P(Focus 5*)P(Ninian is 1 of 6 Focus characters) = 3/100 * 1/6

P(Blue)
= P(Focus 5*)P(Blue 5*|Focus5*) + P(5*)P(Blue 5*|5*) + P(4*)P(Blue 4*|4*) + P(3*)P(Blue 3*|3*)
= (3/100 * 1/6 + 3/100 * 12/48 + 36/100 * 19/80 + 58/100 * 12/49)= ~24%
*numbers could be slightly miscounted. I think I added correctly the 6 sibling bonds characters to the general 5* pool (of which 2 are blue), and Reinhart/Klein/Lachesis to the 4* pool (of which 1 is blue)

P(Ninian | Blue) = P(Blue | Ninian)*P(Ninian)/P(Blue)
 = (1) * (3/100 * 1/6) / (3/100 * 1/6 + 3/100 * 12/48 + 36/100 * 19/80 + 58/100 * 12/49)
 = ~2.08% 

So every time you pick a blue, with the assumptions noted earlier, you have around a 2.08% chance of getting Ninian. This probability slightly increases if your 5* chance does, just replace the 3/100 with whatever/100 in the formula. Use this number, which is P(Ninian|Blue), in the following formula, for (a lower bound of) the probability of obtaining Ninian in n number of blue summons.

1 – (1 – P(Ninian|Blue)^n

It's trivial to do similar calculations for any character of interest. 

Edited March 15, 2017 by XeKr
typos/clarity/etc

[Vaximillian]

8 hours ago, Raven said:

I refuse to waste 2k feathers on bringing Draug to 4* just for his Ward Armour skill. I think 4* Gwendolyn will be good enough.

I did spend 2k feathers on both because why the hell not.

Edited March 15, 2017 by Vaximillian

[shadowofchaos]

22 minutes ago, XeKr said:

P(Ninian | Blue) = P(Blue | Ninian)*P(Ninian)/P(Blue) by Bayes’ Theorem

P(Blue | Ninian) = 1
Self-explanatory

P(Ninian) = P(Focus 5*)P(Ninian is 1 of 6 Focus characters) = 3/100 * 1/6

P(Blue)
= P(Focus 5*)P(Blue 5*|Focus5*) + P(5*)P(Blue 5*|5*) + P(4*)P(Blue 4*|4*) + P(3*)P(Blue 3*|3*)
= (3/100 * 1/6) / (3/100 * 1/6 + 3/100 * 12/48 + 36/100 * 19/80 + 58/100 * 12/49)= ~24%
*numbers could be slightly miscounted. I think I added correctly the 6 sibling bonds characters to the general 5* pool (of which 2 are blue), and Reinhart/Klein/Lachesis to the 4* pool (of which 1 is blue)

P(Ninian | Blue) = P(Blue | Ninian)*P(Ninian)/P(Blue)
 = (1) * (3/100 * 1/6) / (3/100 * 1/6 + 3/100 * 12/48 + 36/100 * 19/80 + 58/100 * 12/49)
 = ~2.08% 

So every time you pick a blue, with the assumptions noted earlier, you have around a 2.08% chance of getting Ninian. This probability slightly increases if your 5* chance does, just replace the 3/100 with whatever/100 in the formula. Use this number, which is P(Ninian|Blue), in the following formula, for (a lower bound of) the probability of obtaining Ninian in n number of blue summons.

1 – (1 – P(Ninian|Blue)^n

It's trivial to do similar calculations for any character of interest. 

I'm posting this in multiple places. You okay with that?

Edited March 15, 2017 by shadowofchaos

[Fire Emblem Fan]

4 hours ago, hunty said:

So the tier list has been updated:



Sounds about right but Jaffar might be a bit too low? He's not as good as Kagero but definitely better than Saizo.

 

Ah dang, really? I was seriously hoping Rebecca would be as OP as Takumi.

[XeKr]

15 minutes ago, shadowofchaos said:

I'm posting this in multiple places. You okay with that?

Sure, go ahead. It's for anyone interested in the chances if they want a particular character. I'm pretty confident in the numbers, though there could be slight typos/miscounts.

edit: Like I already found a typo in the formula for P(Blue). >_>. The numbers seem correct though. 

Edited March 15, 2017 by XeKr

[MaskedAmpharos]

2 hours ago, Arcanite said:

Can Ninian dance after she teleports? Cause then she's retarded. If she can't then it's kinda meh. Her resistance is okayish. Her defense is kinda lame for a manakete. Fortify dragons seems pretty cool. And that light breath though? Lit

Delayed response, but yes: As a proud Ninian owner I can confirm that she can dance/attack/etc after teleporting, which is pretty great. 

[shadowofchaos]

@Ice Dragon

So... you haven't seen how much of an edgy shitlord I was for Ninian after you disappeared.

It was in a now unlisted video.

But man...

 

 

[Sunwoo]

Rey, you really are a masochist, aren't you.

So, obviously, Ninian is good to have but I'm assuming in a pinch that Olivia will still do her basic functions if I never get lucky enough to pull Ninian?

[Ice Dragon]

3 minutes ago, shadowofchaos said:

So... you haven't seen how much of an edgy shitlord I was for Ninian after you disappeared.

It was in a now unlisted video.

But man...

... Oh yeah. I'd be embarrassed, too. I'm... glad I was the quiet don't-want-to-draw-attention-to-myself sort of person back then (outside of showing off my sprite works, at least).

Somehow, that first screenshot looks awfully familiar.

 

I went and dusted off my old art binder (and by dusted off, I really mean dusted off) and found a few of my unfinished Ninian pieces. Only a few; I'm not sure where the rest disappeared off to. And only unfinished because I was terrible at actually finishing my works back then.

I should go back and rework some of them sometime now that I've gotten at least somewhat better. Especially the one of her in a cheongsam patterned like Ena's dress.

[Roflolxp54]

Song and Dance

Olivia:

+ Is available for free via Hero Battles

+ Can learn Hone Atk in addition to Dance

~ Not sure if Knockback is particularly useful since Olivia ideally shouldn't be entering combat at all aside from training

- Sword user when the current meta is flooded with red units

- May require resources and/or grinding in order to Dance or use Hone Atk 3, especially if she's obtained via her Hero Battle map

Azura:

+ Gets Sapphire Lance, which can effectively boost her modest defenses when vs. red units

+ Fortify Res can be nice when facing against magic/dragon teams or running -blade tome users

- 5-star-only drop, making her difficult to get

Ninian:

+ Gets Escape Route, allowing her to become a teleporting dancer

+ Blue unit, which is good in a red-saturated meta

+ Fortify Dragons can give her excellent synergy with fellow dragons

+ Light Breath can give her some use with non-dragon allies thanks to the defensive buffs

- 5-star-only drop, making her difficult to get

- Escape Route only works if Ninian has taken enough damage

- Vulnerable to dragonslayer weapons. Enemy Julia is incredibly dangerous to her and Falchion users can deal significant damage (if not kill her) despite having WTD against her

[shadowofchaos]

10 hours ago, Roflolxp54 said:

Based on the limited information given, we do have to sacrifice a unit to transfer up to 3 skills to another unit.

Certain skills cannot be learned due to weapon/movement restrictions. Like Chrom can't transfer Falchion.

Inherited skills will start off as unlearned.

Inherited skills cost 50% more SP to learn, so an inherited skill (not including the costs of learning predecessor skills) can cost up to 750 SP (it may actually be worthwhile to train a non-5-star character all the way to lv. 40 before increasing rarity for the sake of having loads of SP).

And indeed, your Ninian is +Atk/-Def. Belinda's Ninian sounds like she has neutral Def and +HP.

My guess is that to learn the advanced skill, you have to have them learn the prerequisite too.

Oh man, I guess that means sacrificing a unit with ice skills.

Now it makes me wish I didn't merge the 1 and 2 star Felicias for SP.

[Falcom]

8 hours ago, shadowofchaos said:

So... you haven't seen how much of an edgy shitlord I was for Ninian after you disappeared.

It was in a now unlisted video.

Where can I get a link of that romhack or video? XD

But jesus Rey, glad you got over that.

[Elieson]

Good god I remember the dreamposts @shadowofchaos, you have come a long way~!

 

13 Blue summons, 0 5*s. I did get an Abel, F!Corrin and Reinhardt (all 4*) among a slew of duplicate 3*s. Gee I'm tired of oboro and sully

[shadowofchaos]

24 minutes ago, Falcom said:

Where can I get a link of that romhack or video? XD

But jesus Rey, glad you got over that.

If you can't find the unlisted video, I sure as hell ain't linking it.

Better get finding. The video will be fully deleted after the remake critical collection is done.

Look at what you did, @Ice Dragon

[Ice Dragon]

10 minutes ago, shadowofchaos said:

Look at what you did,

I loled at Slifer.

[Elieson]

13 minutes ago, shadowofchaos said:

Look at what you did, @Ice Dragon

 

2 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

I loled at Slifer.

 

Your fault for liking my tweet at you yesterday, rey!

[Falcom]

1 hour ago, shadowofchaos said:

If you can't find the unlisted video, I sure as hell ain't linking it.

Better get finding. The video will be fully deleted after the remake critical collection is done.

The challenge is on!

EDIT: I gave up. I'm too lazy to do stuff. -_- I am saving that pic though. XD

Edited March 15, 2017 by Falcom

[Sylphid]

So I was trying to pull Karel or Ninian... Got my increased rates eaten by Ephraim. Don't have enough orbs to try again so I'll just hope I can pull them later. I seem to have a thing for pulling characters late anyways.

9 hours ago, Roflolxp54 said:

Olivia:

- Sword user when the current meta is flooded with red units

I'm just going to say that Olivia is servicable as the token red teammate to bait and chip greens if you need one and don't want to have 2 reds. She's obviously not the best, but she can bait Hector and Camilla and not die, which the rest of my team can't brag about.

Knock Back should be unequipped though, it can at worst get her killed and the niche uses you could find from it are hardly worth the trouble.

Both observations are of course biased and someone else with different team or boon/bane on their Olivia might disagree.