Persona 5 Mafia - Game Over

[Bluedoom]

I agree though, Mack and Baldrick are equally good lynches today.

[BBM]

another thing; "I felt like I had to justify voting Gaius" from Baldrick reads as overly self-conscious. It would have been perfectly fine to just say "gonna vote Gaius to get the lynch" or something. 

I don't exactly get your Bart logic Marth. I'm not scumreading Bart but town can also just be wrong and defend scum? The fact that there may not have been scum defending him is looking too far ahead wrt associative reads without flips. Also no offence but your early Bart vote wasn't good 

[Bluedoom]

I guess we can agree to disagree but even if you think that my vote was not good, I'm struggling to see how it was bad or scummy given that  Bart didn't actually do anything at that point in time.  From my POV if town was defending scum!Bart, what were Bart's buddies doing, given that there was discussion generated about him? Its not even just my vote though, Via had a vote down on him for a significant portion of D1.

[Refa]

4 minutes ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

Which page is it on? I vaguely remember it but I'm struggling to search for it now.

I'll just link the posts.

Initial explanation for his read (earlier, I believe it was just a sheep which you called out)

Him switching off

Him explaining his read after LG subbed in

Honestly, i thought there was more but he also had less posts than I expected too so it's probably proportional in the end.

[Bluedoom]

I think the justification for the Ken vote is fakeable as mafia, yeah. However, I've liked his reads on the other players,especially the reads that he has posted today. Also agree with you that the posts show that he's deliberating over his votes instead of just leaving them there.

[SullyMcGully]

Looking at Baldrick's latest post, the way he says "I don't know Mack very well" just seems off to me. I feel like Baldrick could be trying to avoid making a real judgement on Mack. I'm currently re-reading to look for evidence for a joint Baldrick-Mack scum team, but two questions while I do:

@Baldrick What's your opinion on Mack? Is he scummy or not?

@Mack What's your opinion of Baldrick? Is he scummy or not?

If you aren't on a team, you should have some halfway decent answers. 

[BBM]

14 minutes ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

I guess we can agree to disagree but even if you think that my vote was not good, I'm struggling to see how it was bad or scummy given that  Bart didn't actually do anything at that point in time.  From my POV if town was defending scum!Bart, what were Bart's buddies doing, given that there was discussion generated about him? Its not even just my vote though, Via had a vote down on him for a significant portion of D1.

I don't think you're suspicious anymore; I just think that trying to determine Bart's alignment based on the unflipped alignment of people defending him ED1 isn't a good line of thinking because there are too many possibilities due to all the unknowns. Firstly, the people who were defending him could be scum, and secondly, if he was scum his buddies might not have seen the need to defend him if people who were town were defending him. 

another question to Baldrick- can you explain more of why you think Marth's actions had scum intent vs Shinori's?

[Refa]

1 hour ago, SullyMcGully said:

@Refa: Before Prims died, you were my strongest townread. I kinda thought you were everybody else's strongest townread also, so why didn't you die last night? I'll discuss this in depth later.

Sorry about that, I'll try harder to die tonight after I lynch scum.

1 hour ago, BBM said:

I think Shinori is tentatively my #2 scumread over Sully atm. I think Baldrick and Shinori being buddies is quite conceivable given Baldrick never votes Shinori despite pushing him for a significant amount of time until a point in the game where it was pointless. The bit about Marth's actions having more definite scum intent over Shinori is also under-explained IMO

It's possible, but are you bothered by Shinori on his own?  He's still a null for me; couldn't read any scum intent from his content.  Also what do you think about Baldrick casing Shinori?

Expected to come into this day voting Kirsche (because of Prims' EoD1 case) but I think his responses are fine and I don't see why he'd make a huge response to Prims if he was going to be killing Prims anyways as mafia.

WRT people on the LG wagon, Mackc2 and Baldrick bother me the most.

-Prims and me are confirmed town FMPOV. 

-BBM mentioned this before, but I do agree that Bartozio's position on the wagon was similar to Prims in that he did reevaluate his read even though it wasn't in as much depth as Prims.  It's still an easy vote but I'm not reading any scum intent here.

-Mackc2 voted Ken M. but I don't remember him significantly detailing his issues anywhere with the slot ( @Mackc2 I dare you to prove me wrong, also because I might have missed something) and it bothers me (especially in conjunction with the dropped Shinori case).

-Michelaar's vote was lazy but I really don't think the slot is scum.

-I'd sheep BBM's read on Baldrick.  Probably should have pushed this votepark harder YESTERDAY but I was pretty fixated on Prims until the day was almost.  The turnaround on scumreading Mackc2 (or at least having him as a would lynch) to subtly defending him bothers me more though.  Associative reads before flips but it reads as scum/scum interactions to me.  It's also scummy on its own though, so I mean...yeah.  @BBM A question, though.  I do agree that Baldrick dismissing Gaius' content is bad, but why would it benefit Scum!Baldrick to tie himself to the lynch?  The only other major wagon of the day was Prims, who's probably town.  If anything, I'd think scum would rather have Prims lynched than a claimed vanilla.  @SullyMcGully I don't get how Baldrick was being hypocritical.  Encouraging other people to get reads and losing motivation are not contradictory things.

WRT people off of the LG wagon.

-Agree w/Marth's point WRT BBM.  It doesn't make any sense for BBM to defend Prims (especially considering the night kill) when it would be easy to waffle and let the Prims lynch continue.  Only thing that made me doubt myself was I didn't know why BBM didn't vote LG if he thought Prims was more likely to flip town.

-Sully, what are you getting out of your night kill analysis?  It's not bothering me, but I'm seeing multiple conclusions and no opinion on which one is more likely.  Just because they're all possibilities doesn't mean they're all equally likely.

[Refa]

##Vote: Mackc2

I have more issues with Baldrick but I also have more doubts about the lynch, so here my vote goes.

[Baldrick]

@BBM/Sully: I don't have a read on Mackc at all. Haven't looked at his content since page 5 or something, never got around to it. When I said he was would-lynch it was entirely based on what you (sully) and Marth said, didn't mention him when I switched off Gaius because I couldn't muster the energy to reread him. I'd read Marth, Shinori, Sully, BBM and was tapped out.

 

@BBM another;

I thought Marth's inconsistency for the reasons to vote Bartozio was a ML push. All I had for scum intent on Shinori was his Mackc interaction, and saying "he's buddies with Mackc" would be a big call since I didn't even know if I was scumreading Mackc.

@Refa; I already said I wasn't subtly defending Mackc. I was questioning why Shinori, my scumread, was scummy for not having a problem with Mackc, someone explain how this is defending Mackc.

[SullyMcGully]

4 minutes ago, Refa said:

Sorry about that, I'll try harder to die tonight after I lynch scum.

Please don't die Refa how will I make it without you?

4 minutes ago, Refa said:

-Sully, what are you getting out of your night kill analysis?  It's not bothering me, but I'm seeing multiple conclusions and no opinion on which one is more likely.  Just because they're all possibilities doesn't mean they're all equally likely.

In retrospect, that was really more me getting all of the options rolling around in my head set in stone. I might should have kept it to myself... but after some review, I think it is most likely that Prims was killed because he was a good player and there was potentially someone protecting you (actually, given his refusal to roleclaim, Prims could have very well been protecting you as a jailer or something). While he was going to have a rough time of it today after Gaius flipped town, I think that with his skill he could've regained our trust, and during his last posts with us he was already reading into multiple current suspects, including Baldrick, Mack, and Bart. If any of those three were on the scum team (and it seems highly likely that at least one of them is) they might've felt threatened by him, and if they thought this game had a jailer (what are the chances of that, anyway?) they might've gone for the less obvious target.

[SullyMcGully]

When the scum team uses a janitor, do they get to see what the victims role was?

[Bluedoom]

Most variants of the role allow them to see the victim's role.

[Refa]

2 minutes ago, Baldrick said:

@BBM another;

I thought Marth's inconsistency for the reasons to vote Bartozio was a ML push. All I had for scum intent on Shinori was his Mackc interaction, and saying "he's buddies with Mackc" would be a big call since I didn't even know if I was scumreading Mackc.

@Refa; I already said I wasn't subtly defending Mackc. I was questioning why Shinori, my scumread, was scummy for not having a problem with Mackc, someone explain how this is defending Mackc.

Yeah, I read that but then never edited my post to reflect that whoops.  Mostly bothered by you because of the votepark despite your actual reasoning reading more like a policy lynch and also dismissing Gaius' content.

1 minute ago, SullyMcGully said:

When the scum team uses a janitor, do they get to see what the victims role was?

Generally, yes.  This basically allows scum to fakeclaim whatever role they had just killed (unless it's like a vig or something hard to fake), which will make deciding whether a roleclaim is legit or not like 50x harder.

[Refa]

Baldrick, what exactly are your reads?  I know you've mentioned a scum read on Marth and Shinori, but I neither remember much of the intial reads nor any subsequent pushes on them.  Really the only read I'm remembering you pushing is Ken M.

[Baldrick]

@Refa;

Already mentioned how I saw Ken was around, so he was active lurking without posting (inactive lurking?) and that I dismissed Gaius' content because I only had time to skim it.

tbh only my Marth and Shinori reads are any good. here and my first post of day 2 are where I summarise them.

 

I'm aware I haven't even voted yet, going to vote as soon as I can get my head together.

 

[Mackc2]

Sorry about the last day, time zones are extremely inconvinient for me the day ended about half an hour before I woke up, I just got back from work so I will post in a bit once I have an idea of what's happening 

[Bluedoom]

@Refa Thoughts on Quote?

[BBM]

These are the suspicious things Mack has done IMO:

1) His Shinori unvote while still finding him scummy is weird but he says in that post that he was unvoting because Shinori was at L-1. This was very wrong because Shinori wasn't anywhere close to being lynched, but why would he do this as scum and make more work for himself wrt having to read more people and stuff? I don't see the scum intent unless Shinori is his buddy. 

2) His post where he was just like "man I'm too lazy to read more so I'm just going to vote Ken since I've been finding him scummy" is bad obviously but also an understandable sentiment I think. I would probably do the same and forgo rereading if I weren't a masochist.

3) In general I think in his past few games as town he's been around more often and posting more frequently even when he didn't really have as many opinions. Here his posting is a lot more infrequent.

2 and 3 aren't great but they're not enough for me to lynch him on given that his other posts have been good I think. 1 isn't something I'd vote on without Shinori's flip. A Baldrick/Mack/Shinori scumteam is very neat but I'd want to lynch the other two first.

cut by him, hopefully his next post with reads will be more illuminating.

I do find Shinori suspicious on his own as well; I just don't have anything to add that I didn't say yesterday. The trouble is just that it's a bit hard for me to specifically pinpoint scum intent but I think all his main cases have been weak overall, particularly the Bartozio one, and the secondary stuff is shallow. I think in Kemono Friends where Shinori was town, his reads were off but the cases themselves were mostly good. Here the cases aren't good. Also, I think his ratio of defending himself to finding scumteams has been off.

I'll respond to Baldrick's latest few posts after dinner.

I don't really understand why you guys are defending me when nobody is voting me anymore

 

[Mackc2]

So before I go back and read the thread I wanted to say something about Michelaar, he should not be given a free pass just because of how he acts because acting like mafia all the time doesn't stop him from actually being mafia. Only problem is that conventional tests and analysis of plays don't work well on him because he just ends up looking scummy, its annoying me because if he's mafia he could just be cruising off his reputation, Its unlikely but the thought still annoys me and if anyone has a method they think would work they should try it.

Now time to read the thread... for real this time I am not going to just stop when I get bored 

[SullyMcGully]

One more dumb question (sorry I know I'm like a noob question machine-gun today):

I know the Kemono Friends game had a jailer. Do these games usually have a jailer? Is it more of a 50/50 kind of thing? I guess what I'm really asking is, what percent of NOC games have jailers in them?

[Bluedoom]

SB should just sub out Michelaar if he isn't going to post often

[Bluedoom]

Jailer is just a doctor with a caveat, if its town-sided. If its mafia sided its more of a good fakeclaim. Most games usually have a doc over a jailer but there have been games with both the roles present.

[Percivalé]

I'm definitely going to vote mack will explain later I'm still not home ~-~

[Shinori]

34 minutes ago, BBM said:

 

I do find Shinori suspicious on his own as well; I just don't have anything to add that I didn't say yesterday. The trouble is just that it's a bit hard for me to specifically pinpoint scum intent but I think all his main cases have been weak overall, particularly the Bartozio one, and the secondary stuff is shallow. I think in Kemono Friends where Shinori was town, his reads were off but the cases themselves were mostly good. Here the cases aren't good. Also, I think his ratio of defending himself to finding scumteams has been off.

Not really here at the moment been kinda skimming while I'm playing league (About to be in series for diamond.)  But out of curiosity why do you feel the bartozio read is so weak? Obviously I assume you feel Bartozio is town since you seem to disagree with me so hard and I would like to ask, why do you feel Bartozio is town? What has he done that has consented to town play? Alternatively just why isn't he scum I should say.  I dislike a lot of stuff that has been said day 2 and I also feel like people aren't reading some of my posts or my posts are being misread or ignored because I don't feel as if I was defending myself most of day 1 but raising counter arguments and I had solid reads at least in my opinion and this is starting to frustrate me that APPARENTLY ALL MY READS ARE SUPPOSEDLY WEAK WITHOUT REALLY RAISING ANY COUNTER POINTS AS TO WHY THEY ARE WEAK.  BBM has posted some half-assed reasonings behind my Bartozio read but I don't see how any of his play day 1 was townie in most regards.

Frankly I feel the same way about Baldrick who's done nothing but tunnel on me it seems and left his vote sitting on me at the end of day 1 phase saying he was consolidating on me when no one else was even voting me at that time, which means I guess he assumed I was gonna get turboed at the end of the day.  Like what the fuck is this game?  After I either:

A: get in my series and finish my series.

B: lose my next few games so I'm not close to my series

I will make a post. Otherwise don't expect much from me for the next few hours except for half assked posts while I'm skimming in between games.