Persona 5 Mafia - Game Over

[Baldrick]

4 minutes ago, kirsche said:

My impression was that you initially voted based on attitude, then kept your vote there because he had no reads (you didn't answer why not having reads is scummy btw), then was fine to lynch him because he disappeared.

Yes but what happened to that prompt? It didn't seem to come up again and you don't really push for it?

Fair enough on the 90 mins until phase end thing. I was just concerned by how easily you switched to Gaus considering that you didn't mention that SHinori made you feel better about him. Consolidation is understandable.

It was a good post, it's just, I'm a bit surprised that you didn't go back there after Mackc. It's not about "achieving anything" it's about lynching the guy you think is most scummy and if it's just a "not me over me" vote then switching to Mackc and really Sully isn't much better.

If he was town, I figured you'd be right and his play would improve. He didn't disappear entirely, he was still logging in to his account, but not delivering on what he promised. Wanting to no lynch indefinitely is scummy.

Sully's reads had no scum intent.

I'm not a quintuple+ voter, so I don't see how sitting on Shinori would get him lynched. "Isn't much better" is still better; being able to produce a more convincing case would be great, but if you expected that you're overestimating my scumhunting abilities. Pretty much every time I've managed to stop a wagon on me is by making people think I'm town rather than someone else is more likely to be scum.

[Mackc2]

23 minutes ago, Refa said:

@Mackc2 You should ask the mods if Paper can be targeted before he becomes a real boy and post it because if mafia has your Role PM, chances are they're privy to that information anyways.

Paper can't be targeted and nothing short of my death can stop him appearing D4 

33 minutes ago, Bartozio said:

The only part that is a proven fact is that Mack is in contact with paper of course.

However, as long as Paper is town, it benefits us to keep Mack alive. We can always ask him whether Mack is confirmed town to him afterwards. At the very least, there's no way Paper benefits from Mack dying (and knowing this), because he wouldn't be coaching Mack otherwise.

Both of them being scum sounds odd, but I can't think of a good reason why it's not possible. I hope other people can say more about how likely that is.

Just in case: @Mackc2, is PaperBlade confirmed town for you?

Paper is confirmed town for me 

[Baldrick]

@kirsche; one more thing.

Who do you think my prospective buddies are? From their play/meta, do you think they'd be more likely to distance themselves or risk being incriminated?

 

 

 

[Mackc2]

Okay to a few arguments that have been made, Paperblade see's me as the same alignment as him otherwise he wouldn't be helping me. According to Paperblade the role PM can not lie unless it is a bastard game (which it is not.) So I must be the same alignment as Paperblade. 

Suppose we are both scum, think about how busted that would be as a role, on D4 Paperblade would just show up as mafia backup and both of us would have a lot of easy towncred and I would basically be guaranteed to live that long because mafia wouldn't kill me at night and I could claim exactly what I have claimed in this thread and be guaranteed to avoid ever getting lynched. Even an incompetent game maker would be able to see just how overpowered such a role would be. 

Paperblade would also like to address the "If Balderick is scum why isn't scum trying to support him." argument. There are definitely people that are having second thoughts on that lynch and casting into doubt our legitimacy so it's not like he's just being abandoned or they could just be trying to bus him. 

Adding something of my own to that, pretend you are scum for a second (for some of you that shouldn't be too hard since you are.) with how much bad credit Balderick has and how likely it is his lynch would actually happen would you risk your own neck to try to argue his innocence? 

[Bluedoom]

Don't get the differing alignments thing; that being said, Mack's role gives an easy clear in the game so I'm assuming that it comes with a caveat. If arguing for scum!Mack, the more logical argument is that he's lying; but there isn't a reason to test this until D4, assuming we're not in a MYLO situation by then...yeah, that is the most plausible explanation here. Still feeling a Baldrick lynch over Mack; I don't doubt the hydra part at all, its really the whether Paperblade can fake the things that Mack quoted as scum who doesn't have to interact with the thread, which I doubt here.

[Bluedoom]

My guess for a scumteam would be like, Baldrick/Sully/kirsche? I've been null on kirsche for the entire game but I'm p sure the scumteam can't be all new/inexperienced here(sorry Baldrick).  Honestly if Baldrick is town I'm going to be thrown off so much; I feel like the case for Sully being scum is a good one right now. There's a spike in competence but he's playing  the follow the others game.

[SullyMcGully]

Yeah, I see the logic there. Even if I was more suspicious, I wouldn't want a Mack lynch because it's just too risky and will all solve itself D4 anyway (if Mack doesn't get nightkilled).

@everyone: One more question: sorry if this has been discussed already, but if the mafia has Mack's Role PM, then do they have all of our roles? Because if they do, then I'm afraid they probably did kill our doctor/jailer last night.

[BBM]

it's possible I'm confirmation biasing heavily but compare Gaius's actions subbing in as town into a shitty situation vs Baldrick's since the Mack claim:

Gaius pushed the person he thought was scummiest even as he was about to get lynched.

Baldrick tried to argue that Mack's claim was a lie even though it made absolutely no sense from any perspective, which is a blatantly anti-town action. The only defence people have given for this is that it's too scummy to be scummy but Baldrick believed that he was going to get lynched if he couldn't get people back on the Mack wagon so as a last-resort ploy this is perfectly believable for scum to try given the incentive of killing two townies if he manages to pull it off.

He isn't voting or even pushing his top scumread.  I don't know what to say about the bit about feeling bad for pushing Shinori just because Shinori defended him. Baldrick has played mafia enough to know scum defend town. He said just now that he doesn't see the point in pushing Shinori when nobody was listening to him before- the point is that he should be pushing his scumreads, even if he voted Sully in a not-me-over-me? When you're about to get mislynched and you know it you try to set town up as best as you can after your lynch, not go 100% into self-preservation mode 48 hours before the deadline.

kirsche I'm very confused do you actually think Paperblade is scum or were you just voting him to see if it would work?

[BBM]

1 minute ago, SullyMcGully said:

Yeah, I see the logic there. Even if I was more suspicious, I wouldn't want a Mack lynch because it's just too risky and will all solve itself D4 anyway (if Mack doesn't get nightkilled).

@everyone: One more question: sorry if this has been discussed already, but if the mafia has Mack's Role PM, then do they have all of our roles? Because if they do, then I'm afraid they probably did kill our doctor/jailer last night.

no they don't have all our roles lol

they have Mack's specifically because of the mechanics of town basically getting a new recruit if he survives

[Refa]

2 minutes ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

My guess for a scumteam would be like, Baldrick/Sully/kirsche? I've been null on kirsche for the entire game but I'm p sure the scumteam can't be all new/inexperienced here(sorry Baldrick).  Honestly if Baldrick is town I'm going to be thrown off so much; I feel like the case for Sully being scum is a good one right now. There's a spike in competence but he's playing  the follow the others game.

From a first read, I think Kirsche's new posts made more sense coming from town.  I don't think there's any point in assuming a more experienced player is scum unless there's a scum play you think that only they would make.  I'm not scumreading BBM/Kirsche/you/Via anyways, and I don't think Paper's role itself makes sense as scum.

[SullyMcGully]

10 minutes ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

My guess for a scumteam would be like, Baldrick/Sully/kirsche? I've been null on kirsche for the entire game but I'm p sure the scumteam can't be all new/inexperienced here(sorry Baldrick).  Honestly if Baldrick is town I'm going to be thrown off so much; I feel like the case for Sully being scum is a good one right now. There's a spike in competence but he's playing  the follow the others game.

Any reason you aren't including Michelaar? The three people in your scumteam have all been on pretty good terms with him. I know this is self revealing and all, but looking from your point of view, I could definitely see myself on a scumteam with Mich. 

 

[Mackc2]

I am thinking a Michelaar scum is possible based on association, mostly his comment on "not feeling the Baldrick lynch." I looked through the mafia chat for heroes and it seems he really struggles to make false claims so I could see a scum Michelaar giving an answer like that but look at his actions before hand he is chasing Sully when it would probably be better for scum to chase me (before my flip because I was an easy counter wagon) so I don't really know, there's also that Baldrick is on the same wagon as Michelaar but I think that is more because he thinks more people might buy the Sully case 

[Baldrick]

16 minutes ago, BBM said:

When you're about to get mislynched and you know it you try to set town up as best as you can after your lynch, not go 100% into self-preservation mode 48 hours before the deadline.

I went into self-preservation mode because I was at L-2. When 80% of the playerbase wants you dead, it's hard to play normally

My Shinori case is equally good whether I spend the last 48 hours voting him or not. The question is, whether I lie down and accept my death like Ken did,  and try another angle that might get more support and save me.

If I didn't have town's best interests at heart, I would have stopped posting a while ago.

[SullyMcGully]

12 minutes ago, Refa said:

From a first read, I think Kirsche's new posts made more sense coming from town.  I don't think there's any point in assuming a more experienced player is scum unless there's a scum play you think that only they would make.  I'm not scumreading BBM/Kirsche/you/Via anyways, and I don't think Paper's role itself makes sense as scum.

The only scum play we really have to go off of is last night's murder. The fact that they assumed there was a doctor protecting Refa/via/whoever else was being townread at the time and killed Prims instead (I still believe that this is the most likely explanation for the Prims kill) would indicate some degree of experience, but then again, anyone who played or read the Kemono Friends game would see the trouble that going for obvious targets could bring.

[Zkirsche]

35 minutes ago, Baldrick said:

@kirsche; one more thing.

Who do you think my prospective buddies are? From their play/meta, do you think they'd be more likely to distance themselves or risk being incriminated?

I put that towards the end of my ISO wall. BBM explained why voting Sully over Shinori is bad.

@BBM: Yes that's why, my Bart vote wasn't really doing anything at that point anyway.

Time for Bartozio ISO:

Prims has already explained why his Ken park was bad. I'm not convinced "trying to hinder discussion" on page 2 is worth parking on him for the whole phase, especially when I'm not really sure if Ken was trying to hinder disucssion rather than just refsing to participate in it.

His Sully case is good, I would like him to explain what scum!Sully is trying to achieve by just hopping about and voting people who are under pressure though.

Unrelated but we should lynch Bart for never playing the solo story of Portal 2 imo.

Quote

Via has been less active, but he came up with a good number of original  (and decent) cases when he was around. Didn't like how he started out by just posting gut reads, but he explained them well enough afterwards.

Can you give one/some examples of Via cases that you liked and why?

Bart's Mich read is a well made meta one. I personally wouldn't say that he's pushing his scumread a whole lot but the read is well justified and explained. Not something I'd expect from scum really because it feels quite committal (don't really see how he's going to back out of it) and Mich is a potentially easy mislynch if he is the guy that gets really upset when pressured (noone answered me if he is that guy btw). Can't really comment on the validatity of the Mich case myself really since I wasn't in those games and I can barely keep up with reading this one.

I don't really understand his Baldrick case. He criticises Bald for removing his vote to pressure other people, but also criticises Bald for not using his vote to pressure other people? What is the scum intent in Baldrick switching off of Gaius late in the phase to pressure other people, but not beforehand (ignoring that we now know that Baldrick simply wanted to give Gaius a chance)? His follow up is ok: talking about how Baldrick wasn't voting his main scumread which still rings true now, but his initial case isn't great and really focuses in on something small.

Bart's scumteams are ok, would liek to know why Sully's interactions with Baldy and Shinori make them less likely to be buddies.

I think overall Bart is not too bad aside from a few oddities here and there that I would like cleared up. Aside from his Gaius park and his Baldrick case I think he is looking into and reading people fairly well. Less suspicious than Baldy.

[Zkirsche]

7 hours ago, kirsche said:

What do other people make of Baldrick making posts like this? Would scum really make such an empty post and hit send? I would think they would be too self-conscious for that but I don't know Baldrick. It certainly is "safe" content but is it content likely to come from scum? @BBM  @Bartozio @Refa @Paperblade Would like some insight on this as I'm not sure myself.

Since you guys are here now and prob just didn't see this in the wall.

[SullyMcGully]

5 minutes ago, Baldrick said:

I went into self-preservation mode because I was at L-2. When 80% of the playerbase wants you dead, it's hard to play normally

My Shinori case is equally good whether I spend the last 48 hours voting him or not. The question is, whether I lie down and accept my death like Ken did,  and try another angle that might get more support and save me.

If I didn't have town's best interests at heart, I would have stopped posting a while ago.

The difference between you and Gaius is that Gaius prepared for a few hours before stepping in to defend his slot while you kind of just freaked out and said whatever when Mack claimed. So I think it's understandable that Gaius had a better looking, more town-friendly defense than you. Then again, making a desperate attack like that could be a scum reaction. 

@experienced players: I remember someone in Kemono Friends saying that scum usually goes silent when their death is assured. Is that true?

[SullyMcGully]

3 minutes ago, kirsche said:

Unrelated but we should lynch Bart for never playing the solo story of Portal 2 imo.

Absolutely.

I only watched a YouTube walkthrough to get all of the memes, please don't lynch me because of that!

[Baldrick]

24 minutes ago, SullyMcGully said:

The difference between you and Gaius is that Gaius prepared for a few hours before stepping in to defend his slot while you kind of just freaked out and said whatever when Mack claimed. So I think it's understandable that Gaius had a better looking, more town-friendly defense than you. Then again, making a desperate attack like that could be a scum reaction. 

NGL, I'm pretty fucking jealous of Mackc. The main disadvantages of being town is you have nobody you can trust, and being mislynched is awful. Having Paperblade in your ear is pretty sweet, and unless he's lying about Paperblade becoming a real boy he's not getting lynched. The worst that can happen is being shot, and that's at least instant, painless death.

[Baldrick]

1 hour ago, BBM said:

Baldrick tried to argue that Mack's claim was a lie even though it made absolutely no sense from any perspective, which is a blatantly anti-town action. The only defence people have given for this is that it's too scummy to be scummy but Baldrick believed that he was going to get lynched if he couldn't get people back on the Mack wagon so as a last-resort ploy this is perfectly believable for scum to try given the incentive of killing two townies if he manages to pull it off.

If you believe Mackc is telling the truth, scum have his role PM. Do you think the best last-resort ploy scum!me could come up with was "Mackc is lying"? Something I would know would backfire on me almost instantly? If I'm doing something desperate, why not claim cop or watcher? Best-case scenario I also get role-cleared and have a high-percentage chance of taking out one townie before I die, worst-case scenario I get cc'd and at least a town PR is forced to claim.

[BBM]

2 hours ago, Baldrick said:

I went into self-preservation mode because I was at L-2. When 80% of the playerbase wants you dead, it's hard to play normally

My Shinori case is equally good whether I spend the last 48 hours voting him or not. The question is, whether I lie down and accept my death like Ken did,  and try another angle that might get more support and save me.

If I didn't have town's best interests at heart, I would have stopped posting a while ago.

but none of the things Shinori has posted since you changed votes are worthy of analysis?

I honestly don't know why you didn't go with some claim as scum, but I also don't know why you would jump to assuming Mack was lying as town? I also don't know why you would treat the situation with Mack as a 1v1 where if we believed him you were automatically sunk or whatever.

[BBM]

I know I should be reading other people and stuff but I can't do anything without knowing the Baldrick flip because I'm like 95% sure he's scum and that affects how I read other people so I'd rather reread with my 95% suspicion confirmed or with a town flip in mind, since it's almost certain we're lynching him today.

That's basically a long-winded way of saying I'm in favour of hammering Baldrick after he's had time to give a final list of reads if he's town.

[Baldrick]

12 minutes ago, BBM said:

I honestly don't know why you didn't go with some claim as scum, but I also don't know why you would jump to assuming Mack was lying as town? I also don't know why you would treat the situation with Mack as a 1v1 where if we believed him you were automatically sunk or whatever.

If you think I'm scum, you should be able to explain it.

It's apparently a perfectly believable thing for me to do.

[Baldrick]

27 minutes ago, BBM said:

but none of the things Shinori has posted since you changed votes are worthy of analysis?

 

I looked back on it, and pretty much. It's just him being angry. His scumteam is Michelaar and Bartozio (nothing new since I talked about those reads) and Kirsche (for being unmemorable)

[Refa]

You read the Shinori/Michelaar interactions and thought scum/scum?