We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[Ampharos]

11 minutes ago, Beru said:

its just me lol, literally just me

less last night than like, ever

it's not like kaoz was a viable mislynch target

[Beru]

2 minutes ago, Walrein said:

it's not like kaoz was a viable mislynch target

yeah its less wondering why people died and more wondering why people are still alive

[Ampharos]

1 minute ago, Beru said:

yeah its less wondering why people died and more wondering why people are still alive

killing from the poe rather than from the locktowns typically (in my experience) implies that someone's going deep

unfortunately i have no idea who that would be in this situation

[Beru]

yeah that would make sense except I just played a very similar game where mafia shot into the poe repeatedly because of pr hunting even when it didn't actually benefit them

[Ampharos]

1 minute ago, Beru said:

yeah that would make sense except I just played a very similar game where mafia shot into the poe repeatedly because of pr hunting even when it didn't actually benefit them

problem is pretty much every role has claimed

we're out of PRs to hunt

[Snike]

I won't have access to my computer for a while; watching a doggo.

I think walrein's claim is believable except I don't know how kaoz died in that scenario. If mack had been motivated I have absolutely no doubt one of those martyrs would have been on kaoz in addition to a wifom target.

Reminder that he got on my case about the hijack yesterday and the arguments he used in pushing me.

[EvanManManMan]

8 hours ago, Makaze said:

Via is town. I have read every Via post and there seems to be no agenda.

They also seem genuinely lost and have 0 TMI.

Just because somebody is lost doesn't mean they are town. It's not hard for scum to play dumb and just sheep wagons with the excuse that they don't kniw what's happening. I'm tone reading Via as town and their role is probably toen as well but this is bad justification.

[EvanManManMan]

@Fable @Baldrick thanks for your help. I'll analyze Shinori once I catch up.

[Fable]

7 hours ago, Makaze said:

@Fable

Can your claim help us solve the game?

No. 

[EvanManManMan]

7 hours ago, Makaze said:

##Votals @Iris @SB.

@everyone else

Do you think Omega is the ITP?

If you do, should we lynch him, or would you prefer Mafia for a strategic reason?

If you have a strategic reason, can you explain it for those of us who think we should the KP from the game?

I'm honestly not sure if Omega is ITP or not but killing him isn't what I would say we need now. We have 11 or 12 people alive right now and I presume 2/3 scum. The extra KPN will not deal us a massive number blow. The extra KPN also gives me a higher chance of guessing the kill correctly which allows me to gain my ability. At that point I would say going for KPN would be beneficial but right now we should be focusing on mafia and not ITP.

[EvanManManMan]

@Refa just because a 3rd party has claimed something that wouldn't line up doesn't mean the ITP doesn't have that ability anyways. Serial Killers are often given passives to go along with their killing ability. Omega's claim actually is something I would expect to be an SK passive.

[Fable]

Unvote

I got up to Walrein's role claim and it does make sense it would fail when he used it on me with what my role is. =/

[Makaze]

3 hours ago, Walrein said:

yeah ok

shame it's unverifiable

hardclaiming motivator

n1 targeted fable, action failed

n2 targeted mack, succeeded (should have targeted bibbon/kaoz slot but forgot they claimed jk)

n3 targeted kaoz, he died (and so did mack)

Who do you think Mack targeted?

29 minutes ago, EvanManManMan said:

Just because somebody is lost doesn't mean they are town. It's not hard for scum to play dumb and just sheep wagons with the excuse that they don't kniw what's happening. I'm tone reading Via as town and their role is probably toen as well but this is bad justification.

I just think it's impossible to justify otherwise.

45 minutes ago, Snike said:

I won't have access to my computer for a while; watching a doggo.

I think that walrein will respond to my posts with some form of "idk" as mafia, but will have actual speculations as town. This is not conclusive, but crumbing here just in case.

I think walrein's claim is believable except I don't know how kaoz died in that scenario. If mack had been motivated I have absolutely no doubt one of those martyrs would have been on kaoz in addition to a wifom target.

Reminder that he got on my case about the hijack yesterday and the arguments he used in pushing me.

This is an incredibly good point. We also can't be sure who Kaoz used his empower on, but we can be ~pretty sure it was Mack.

Possible explanation is that Walrein is a fake!motivator.

@Walrein You've addressed my tonal reasons for doubting you, but that was not why I voted you. You've read the posts, so I expect you to figure out what I'm talking about on your own. How would you explain it?

[Fable]

Meh if I'm claiming that might as well claim full, doesn't really matter anymore. 

I'm a rolebomb, if I get NKed the person who killed me loses all their abilities. 

[Iris]

Day 4.19 - Votals
Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy (4): Alette, EvanManManMan, Baldrick
Walrein (3):  Makaze, athena_57, Omega
Omega (2): Via, Beru

Not Voting: Fable, Killthestory, Refa, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy, Walrein

You have ~33.5 hours left in the day. With 13 alive, it takes 5 to lynch and 9 to hammer.

[EvanManManMan]

8 hours ago, Beru said:

tiny sidetrack but there's no way there could be a third party faction it's always independent here right.

it can't be two people. 

It Can't be two slots but it could be the hydra.

Props to the hosts if they did this.

[EvanManManMan]

The way that everybody hopped on Walrein as easily as they did makes me suspect that he is town or scum working alone.

Haven't read up to where he claimed yet

[EvanManManMan]

Wait Walrein claiked his action failed night 1. Didn't a scum compulsive roleblocker flip? That would clear Walrein if he truly was roleblocked

Also Walrein, you are motivating myself or Alette tonight to get extra kill power. Motivating anybody else won't benefit as most of the PRs left have no beneficial action from an extra charge.

[EvanManManMan]

If you have suspicions that I'm mafia just give it to Alette. It shouldn't matter too much.

[EvanManManMan]

We should definitely be lynching the hydra slot.

Analyzing Shinori now

[EvanManManMan]

On 4/14/2018 at 12:05 PM, Shinori said:

Scum reads:

Athena
Kirsche

Leaning scum:

Walrein
Refa
BBM
Jaybee
Junko

No particular order.  I haven't read Junko's most recent wall post so that may chance some thoughts/opinions on them. 

Walrein is starting to rub me the wrong way and I'm getting scum vibes from him.  I was town reading him from Early day 1 play but that was primarily based on the fact that he was actually posting and that's probably a bad idea to just town read someone on.

Jaybee is completely unmemorable and I don't even remember them really doing anything, apparently like the first vote on the Bart lynch wagon though so I dislike that.

Refa is actually giving me Third vibes.  This is mainly gut though and I don't actually think he's scum.  Kind of the reason I'm not really pushing this at all cause I don't wanna deal with ITP hunting when we don't even know if there is one in the game.

I disagree with Bibbon when he said he town read BBM based on BBM's case on Bibbom followed by BBM unvoting Bibbon.  I could see Scum!BBM unvoting and not just continuing with the pressure because otherwise it would look bad.  I was iffy on bibbon last phase but after thinking about it more and re-reading some of the content I feel he's a bigger town read now.  Especially with the random Jailkeeper claim?  I gotta say that came outta nowhere and I'm not a fan but I don't see it as scum.

Athena case's have already been posted, both by myself and Snike and I'm really disliking Kirsche over this past day phase.  Day 1 I was leaning scummy on him but it's only gotten worse in my eyes.

So for now since I forgot to unvote a while ago:

##Unvote:

##Vote: Athena

These reads should honestly clear Athena and Kill. Shinori, in this scenario, wouldn't bus a partner. The fact that both are co networkers is pinging me some way but I can't put my finger on it. It's probably coincidental though. They gave very little info as to why Kirsche was scum. They just said "his day play is bad." That doesn't ping me as a bus, and it was probably more of a bandwagon read because Kirsche was being scum read by many. Athena would not get pushed by Shinori in this scenario so I'm confident they are town as well.

Their ITP speculation on Refa is just bad and is just shade. They simply stated "I think Refa is ITP" but gave no reasoning whyand said they specifically wouldn't try to lynch them.

Their Walrein read is interesting though. They tone read him as town day one but retracted that and called them scum for low activity in day 2. It reminds me of Makaze's flip now. The resemblence is odd and is giving me strange vibes. It makes me trust Makaze less. Walrein is probably town from these points, ignoring role spec.

[EvanManManMan]

The rest of Shinori's reads are on dead plauers and don't affect the game right now.

[Makaze]

5 minutes ago, EvanManManMan said:

Their Walrein read is interesting though. They tone read him as town day one but retracted that and called them scum for low activity in day 2. It reminds me of Makaze's flip now. The resemblence is odd and is giving me strange vibes. It makes me trust Makaze less. Walrein is probably town from these points, ignoring role spec.

1. Do you think my flip reads ingenuine, or is this just a meta "Why did he flip?" question?

2. Please read my posts about his JB and Shinori interactions, which I think are the most damning and why I'm voting him (I still don't think his claim discounts these):

Granted the first post is pretty tunnel vision; I was looking for reasons to doubt my townread on him.

Here's the missing quote from Quote #2:

Quote

10 hours ago, athena_57 said:

If Walrein has his reasons for voting me that's fair, I'd like them to be on the table though.
Refa's vote is just to lay on pressure, so no point in responding imo.

Iono I feel this mentality towards Walrein is weird.  Overall I will say I disliked Athena's early post complaining about RVS while saying nothing else.  Albeit minor, a few things had actually slightly happened.  An example is the whole BBM/Junko posts that had happened before Athena posted.  Maybe I'm just biased but it stood out to me.

 

Here's the missing quote from Quote #3:

Quote

4 minutes ago, eclipse said:

All those words, and only a slight mention of Walrein. 

I also haven't mentioned Walrein that I can remember off the top of my head: How come you didn't bring this up WRT me but did so for Eury?  Or did you ask her something about Walrein?

Why Walrein in specific?  And why ask Eury specifically? I know he's been very active but I don't quite understand this post right now.

Why does Shinori shade Walrein not once but twice, then deny mentioning Walrein and attack eclipse for mentioning him? Why would he appeal to "Why did you Walrein but not Eury?" (Eury has flipped town)

[Makaze]

This also helps explain the eclipse kill attempts, if they were Mafia.

[Makaze]

sf not letting me edit for pronouns; sorry walrein