We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[Makaze]

Alette chooses Snike every time...

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

And Refa, are you sussing Kill? Is it JUST the Shinori D1 EOD thing or what?

[Makaze]

Omega you might try reading posts sometimes

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

I've mostly skimmed. It turned into rolespec stuff which hasn't worked once so I dunno why it's a centerpiece of discussion.

As for Kill, eh. I can't say his posts have been super hot, but he reads demotivated to me which I'm not sure is wolfy because I think some others have been. I haven't seen him wolf before, but Evan seems to read him V and they've played some more. Even if Evan is scum, they're unpartnered. The only thing I can see him being opportunistic over is voting/sussing me on the ITP shit, but I can't confidently call that wolfy cuz enough villas have considered it that it's hard to decipher who is wolf/ITP cheerleading a free mislynch. I still wouldn't lynch him today; I imagine as wolf he could be fucking up village a lot more. As for Shinori's trestment of kirsche, meh, I've only seen him wolf once before and he looked like he was just trying to fuck with the village when it comes to spew so I'm not going to put excessive stock there. I've pulled the exact same thing just to make look villas look wolfy as well. And then there's kirsche, whose wolfgame I read in Persona 5; the manner in which he bussed there was different than here.

[Makaze]

One think I'm noticing is how Kill isn't contributing with his vote or scum hunting at all, and his only comments have been on the ITP stuff today.

@Killthestory Who would you like to lynch? What's your strategy going forward?

[Refa]

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/83026-i-dont-need-serenes-forest-mafia-mafia-5-day-4/&page=7&tab=comments#comment-5187011

ZKirsche's first reply to Junk.  This is non telling, I'm just linking it for later.

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/83026-i-dont-need-serenes-forest-mafia-mafia-5-day-4/&page=12&tab=comments#comment-5187973

ZKirsche's second content post.  Note that by this point, his primary vote has been on BBM and he's gotten a lot of flak for it.  He has minor townreads on me, Zeus, and Athena at this point.  His reasoning for dropping off the BBM read bothers me, in that it feels like a reaction to the flak he got for it.  I don't get how BBM's tone significantly improved between pages and it's weirding me out that he went from strongest scumread -> probably town so quickly.  @Makaze He also subtly defends Snike here (calls the wagon an easy mislynch) which is a weird repeating pattern amongst the flipped scum FSR lol.  Also says Walrein is definitely town, so I don't think they're scum/scum.  I don't think the Junk vote is telling, although obviously the reasoning is good.  What bothers me is that he doesn't really call out Junk until this post, even though his reasoning could apply much earlier on.  He also mentions that he doesn't see anything scummy in Athena's posts.

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/83026-i-dont-need-serenes-forest-mafia-mafia-5-day-4/&page=18&tab=comments#comment-5188429

Not sure what to make of most of this post but it's probably telling, so I linked it anyways.  Read on Shinori bothers me because he basically is avoiding having a definite read on Shinori until later on.  Also he scumreads Nightmare like the rest of the scum team.  That part isn't telling, but I really feel like he's setting up to switch from Junko to Nightmare.

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/83026-i-dont-need-serenes-forest-mafia-mafia-5-day-4/&page=22&tab=comments#comment-5188965

Next major post.  He scumreads on Junk/Shinori are fine honestly, and I believe most people are townreading the slot because he had them high on his scum list.  What bothers me here is his Athena swap  (says he'd prefer lynching Athena over Bartozio) just because Athena fell off, despite previously not seeing anything scummy w/Athena's posts.  More Snike defense, not much is said about Bartozio here.  

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/83026-i-dont-need-serenes-forest-mafia-mafia-5-day-4/&page=24&tab=comments#comment-5189135

I don't really have any issues with this post but he does ask people to vote Junk, so I put it in case people think it's more likely to come from town.  IMO though it's not telling because Bartozio/Athena were the obvious lynches and it was unlikely that Junk was getting lynched on D1 considering the lack of suspicion on the slot.  Asking Bartozio to switch his vote to Junk is also off considering that ZKirsche was scumreading Bartozio.

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/83026-i-dont-need-serenes-forest-mafia-mafia-5-day-4/&page=24&tab=comments#comment-5189181

His only comment on JB D1.  Again, not scummy, just keeping it in mind for later.

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/83026-i-dont-need-serenes-forest-mafia-mafia-5-day-4/&page=25&tab=comments#comment-5189206

ZKirsche mentions he doesn't want to lynch Athena because of his claim.

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/83026-i-dont-need-serenes-forest-mafia-mafia-5-day-4/&page=25&tab=comments#comment-5189221

This kind of bothers me, though?  If he thinks Athena is more likely to be his scum counterpart, why isn't he advocating a lynch there?  Asking to network him is null, though.

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/83026-i-dont-need-serenes-forest-mafia-mafia-5-day-4/&page=39&tab=comments#comment-5190889

This is where the tunnel starts to bother me because he reads as super sure that Junk will flip scum and I'm not really sure where the conviction is coming from.  

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/83026-i-dont-need-serenes-forest-mafia-mafia-5-day-4/&page=46&tab=comments#comment-5191577

Another post people mentioned was more likely to come from town.  This is probably my main misgiving in the vote, because he defended Athena, expressed annoyance at people complaining about his tunnel, and voted Shinori.  He does defend JB, though.  I'm not sure if Scum!ZKirsche votes one of his buddies and then switches off to another one, but FYPOV everyone else alive has done something townier so I don't know.

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/83026-i-dont-need-serenes-forest-mafia-mafia-5-day-4/&page=51&tab=comments#comment-5191897

Here he mentions that Junk is still the best lynch, and has his vote on Shinori.

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/83026-i-dont-need-serenes-forest-mafia-mafia-5-day-4/&page=53&tab=comments#comment-5192084

This voteswap to Mackc2 bothers me.  Despite saying that Shinori's reaction to my case was mostly self defense and nothing was gained from it, he changes to Mackc2 anyways.  I don't see why Town!Kirsche feels his Mackc2 vote accomplishes more than a Junk and Shinori vote despite having substantive issues with both but basically ignoring Mackc2's claim and not really significantly engaging with the slot.  Feels very opportunistic.

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/83026-i-dont-need-serenes-forest-mafia-mafia-5-day-4/&page=60&tab=comments#comment-5192521

Someone should read this because I'm not sure if ZKirsche forgets why his scumbuddy is voting him, but I feel like it's nontelling?  Want a second opinion here TBH.

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/83026-i-dont-need-serenes-forest-mafia-mafia-5-day-4/&page=65&tab=comments#comment-5192834

ZKirsche's reactions to getting turboed.  Null, he'd be frustrated as either alignment.

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/83026-i-dont-need-serenes-forest-mafia-mafia-5-day-4/&page=65&tab=comments#comment-5192839

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/83026-i-dont-need-serenes-forest-mafia-mafia-5-day-4/&page=65&tab=comments#comment-5192857

This post (linking another similar post he made later on in the day because I get the same vibes) really bothers me because he's pushing his Junk case on the basis that Amnesiac is a fakeclaim, but doesn't mention why he thinks it is or what makes it likely to be fake.  I dunno, confirmation biasing hard here but it really feels like he knew Junk was bullshitting.

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/83026-i-dont-need-serenes-forest-mafia-mafia-5-day-4/&page=65&tab=comments#comment-5192846

Decent network target, no issues there.

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/83026-i-dont-need-serenes-forest-mafia-mafia-5-day-4/&page=66&tab=comments#comment-5192884

Don't know if he'd react like this to me scumreading him if he was scum.  Again, more opinions here would really help.  @Vi-astra You in particular because I feel like you know ZKirsche more than any of the alive people lol.

@Omega. Don't have time to read Kill's posts ATM, I'll do that later but I feel like this points towards ZKirsche being scum, although there are a few points where I'm really not confident and I don't know what to make of those.  OVERALL though, I'd feel more confident voting here than Evan/Snike.  Not sure about Athena, I got a lot of push back there which made me think I was wrong but Snike made some good points.

[Alette]

1 hour ago, Snike said:

I feel like whoever walrein motivates is going to die anyways making the claim completely untraceable.

And for the record we don't know if he actually had a mod error so there's a distinct possibility the role is fake.

Also I think athena townreading my slot consistently is false. I distinctly remember him reading me as mostly null and I believe yesterday he scumread?

I think we're like 3 votes off from meeting lynch.  Is there a consensus to some extent as to what to do/who to pursue tomorrow when I flip town today? If so we'd may as well end the phase early to deliver that information.

Final thoughts: I think makaze definitely needs to be looked at on my flip, maybe at the same time as walrein. I think there is/was a chance of an athena/zeus scumteam.

I would also agree that I think omega has been acting oddly, however I would not go after him before aforementioned players.

 

 @Refa  @Fable  @Makaze @Beru Snike seems to be in spew mode here. I think this clears athena/mak/wals and makess mewant to really look at Omega

[Refa]

I really can't see Snike being scum, though...

[Ampharos]

am i crazy or is the above quoted snike post really wolfy

[Refa]

I don't see why Scum!Snike would be like "is there a consensus when I flip town?  okay, let's hurry up and hammer me then lol".

[Alette]

2 minutes ago, Walrein said:

am i crazy or is the above quoted snike post really wolfy

you aren't crazy because i was thinking the same thing. It reads like spew wals

[Makaze]

My main problem with Snike is that like Omega, he's stubbornly trying to widen the PoE to people I think have to be town. He's not clearing the right people. I still feel like his switch to Sully was opportunistic, and the nature of his defenses in general has been offputting.

Also they have been sheeping consensus and just followed me on my Walrein lynch as well. I don't think this is town Snike if he's seriously thinking I could be Mafia.

[Makaze]

2 minutes ago, Refa said:

I don't see why Scum!Snike would be like "is there a consensus when I flip town?  okay, let's hurry up and hammer me then lol".

...to provoke this reaction?

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Makaze said:

...to provoke this reaction?

I'm like the only one defending him lol.

[Makaze]

Just now, Refa said:

I'm like the only one defending him lol.

Yeah but I think he'd do it to get that reaction. He's the smartest scum player on this team if he's Mafia IMO. I've said this before.

[Makaze]

Possible worlds where Kaoz empowered Kill:

Kaoz empowered Kill and Kill is the ITP, Snike is the Mafia, Omega is innocent
Kaoz empowered Kill and Kill is the Mafia with Snike, Omega is the ITP
Kaoz empowered Kill and Kill is the only Mafia, Omega is the ITP

I really don't like this, but it's an option.

Kill/Snike makes a lot of sense IMO, if Snike flips and there is another Mafia. He's been clearing Kill since the Junko lynch despite all reasoning.

[Fable]

13 minutes ago, Alette said:

 @Refa  @Fable  @Makaze @Beru Snike seems to be in spew mode here. I think this clears athena/mak/wals and makess mewant to really look at Omega

I'm catbug. 

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, Fable said:

I'm catbug. 

I'm confused.

[Fable]

1 minute ago, Makaze said:

I'm confused.

Ssssshhhhh, it's for alette. 

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Makaze said:

I'm confused.

mewant

[Snike]

If you all get 2 more votes on me, or we wait 20-some hours, you will find out that you are wrong about my being scum.

But I can't really speed that along.  As much as I'd want to bc I think my flip will clear things up and I feel like rainbow dolphin. So if we're not going to do it tonight, everyone should reaffirm what to do/who to push when that happens, and not just confirmation bias off of my posts. I think my lynch is all but secured at this point, so pushing further is distracting imo.

[Baldrick]

I buy the mod error. When he was questioned why mack didn't crumb, his response was "man I don't know". When it's questioned why kaoz died when mack was surely on him, the mod error came out. If Walrein is scum, I'm fairly sure the motivator is a fake, so he would have had to invent the mod error, and I don't see him making that kind of gambit.

Snike's attitude is null to me, trying to get anything out of it would only lead to being buried in WIFOM.

With his lynch, it's just about as obvious as Arcanite was, but I don't feel the same way in my gut as I did for that lynch.

If Snike is town, you should know who I think is mafia. Once the fourth mafia flips, if their faction isn't announced as eliminated, then I'll tell you who their last buddy is.

[Makaze]

@Refa

What was your smoking gun on Athena? You seemed pretty sure about him being scummy.

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Makaze said:

@Refa

What was your smoking gun on Athena? You seemed pretty sure about him being scummy.

I don't get what you're asking.

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, Refa said:

I don't get what you're asking.

I was confused on why you thought Athena could be Mafia earlier in the Day. Did I misremember this?