We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[Fable]

1 minute ago, Omega. said:

At first, I wondered if you were just villa going at me through your POE like you explained. But then I realized wolf/ITP only need 1 mislynch at this point to force kingmaker tomorrow.

Why not go against me? People have been wanting to lynch me since like D2. I'm never out the POE for anyone except like, Kill and Refa, I believe. Why do you say I am the most unlikely to be lynched? I think I'm very lynchable, I don't understand why you're saying otherwise.

That was suppose to be IYO not IMO.

Also your logic is incredibly flawed, I could think what I think as villa but because it's potential lylo I can't? 

[Refa]

If Mafia/ITP both shoot town, then it'll be 2/1/1 tomorrow.  BTW, don't lynch in that scenario, scum either has to kill other scum or willingly through.

[Baldrick]

@Makaze  In order to edit the post, the format is fucked. Deal with it, I can only spoonfeed you so much.

 

Quote

Day 2.Iris does votals again, thanks SB
RADicate (4): Omega., Refa, athena_57, Mackc2
Omega (3): Walrein, eclipse
athena_57 (2): Shinori, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy
Mackc2 (2): Jaybee, Zkirsche
Zkirsche (2): RADicate, Mackc2
Weapons (2): BBM, Alette
eclipse (1): Makaze
Jaybee (1): Via
Shinori (1): Weapons

Not Voting: Kaoz, Lord Gaius, Fable, SullyMcGully

You have ~17 hours left in the day.  With 20 alive, it takes 7 to lynch and 14 to hammer.

Note the way mafia are voting right now. If Junko is the member they want to keep alive above all else.

      Quote

    Day 2.Almost to the end
    Junko (6): Omega., Refa, athena_57, Mackc2, eclipse
    athena_57 (2): Shinori, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy
    Mackc2 (2): Jaybee, Zkirsche
    Weapons (2): BBM, Alette
    eclipse (1): Makaze
    Jaybee (1): Via
    Omega (1): Walrein
    Shinori (1): Weapons
    Zkirsche (1): Junko

    Not Voting: Kaoz, Lord Gaius, Fable, SullyMcGully

    You have ~11.5 hours left in the day.  With 20 alive, it takes 7 to lynch and 14 to hammer.

    This is a pretty decisive move in regards to their ace in the hole.

          Quote

        Day 2.yawn
        Junko (8): Omega., athena_57, Mackc2, eclipse, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy, Kaoz, Zkirsche
        eclipse (5): Makaze, Lord Gaius, Refa, BBM, Jaybee
        Zkirsche (2): Junko, SullyMcGully
        athena_57 (1): Shinori
        Jaybee (1): Via
        Omega (1): Walrein
        Shinori (1): Arcanite
        Arcanite (1): Alette

        Not Voting: Fable

        You have ~4 hours left in the day.  With 20 alive, it takes 7 to lynch and 14 to hammer.

        The eclipse wagon seems to have come about mostly from the non-mafia. Jaybee is riding the coat-tails, if junk and shinori want to sac eclipse opportunity is knocking.

              Quote

            Day 2.woke up from a nap is sleepy
            Junko (7): athena_57, Mackc2, eclipse,  Kaoz, Zkirsche, Fable
            Zkirsche (5): Junko, SullyMcGully, Omega., Refa, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy
            eclipse (4): Makaze, Lord Gaius, BBM, Jaybee
            Jaybee (1): Via
            Omega (1): Walrein
            Shinori (1): Arcanite
            Arcanite (1): Alette

            Not Voting: Shinori

            You have ~24 minutes left in the day.  With 20 alive, it takes 7 to lynch and 14 to hammer.

            The moment has passed. Junk can't switch for NMoM, Shinori unvoted rather than try to affect the lynch.

                  Quote

                Junko (9): athena_57, Mackc2, eclipse,  Kaoz, Zkirsche, Fable, Refa, BBM
                Zkirsche (6): Junko, SullyMcGully, Omega., Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy, Makaze, Via
                eclipse (3): Lord Gaius, Jaybee, Shinori
                Omega (1): Walrein
                Shinori (1): Arcanite
                BBM (1): Alette

                Shinori decides NOW is the time to put the sac eclipse masterplan into action.

                 

                In your world, the sacrifice mafia tried to engineer to keep their massblocker alive is the mayor, their best tool for manipulating the lynch the way they want it.

                They had two mafia, including the mayor, on their massblocker, and had one mafia on their sac target when the momentum of that lynch was at its peak.

                 

                Pedit: Are you saying the way town solves the game is to make vague accusations, and doesn't post any evidence to convince others they are right? Not saying that's what refa is doing, I believe he will reread me, but you're implying you would be OK if Refa didn't bother following up.

 

@Refa You can respond too, if you think the case on me is not bullshit.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

Just now, Makaze said:

Can you explain the kingmaker logic?

5/1/1 right now.

mislynch = 4/1/1

crosskills = 2/1/1 d6

I don't think village can win in that scenario unless I missed something or some weird role shit

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

1 minute ago, Fable said:

That was suppose to be IYO not IMO.

Also your logic is incredibly flawed, I could think what I think as villa but because it's potential lylo I can't? 

I'm making a judgement call as to how you'd approach this Day as wolf vs. villa. I really don't get why you're pushing us as the likeliest in your pool. I really don't. Like, for me to be W you have to believe I went at multiple bros when you yourself, earlier in this game, said that I'm against bussing. For Kill to be W, you have to believe kirsche bussed from pretty much the getgo.

Do you not see why I think it's unlikely for someone to think that as a probability? I'm serious, I'm not being smart with you. I don't get it.

[Makaze]

4 minutes ago, Omega. said:

IDGAF. Right now, Baldrick lives.

He does not die over Evan who lynched Snike and killed Blitz.

He does not die over you who greenlighted this.

He does not die over Refa who is now taking what you're saying into consideration in a weirdass way that I'm still reading through.

He does not die over Fable who I explained.

He does not die over literally anyone else. If he's wolf/ITP, tough shit. We're going out punishing wolfy/bad play, and that's more from most of this game than him..

Yeah, no. This post is garbage. You put it there along with your entire philosophy on this game.

Town are going to get invested and get confident in their instincts. Some people won't. Some people will be cautious and only push surefire stuff.

That playstyle is also more likely to come from Mafia, because it's a safe playstyle.

Those people are not better, and they can lose just as easily because nothing risked is nothing gained.

How many wolves have you caught?

Count 'em. None.

How many wolves have I caught, albeit indirectly?

Only the actual deep wolf, Athena.

Neither I nor Beru -- who said I was the thing driving this game -- suspected Athena. And yet we caught him. Suck it, get over it, and get a way of playing that doesn't depend on bad sportsmanship.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

1 minute ago, Makaze said:

Yeah, no. This post is garbage. You put it there along with your entire philosophy on this game.

Town are going to get invested and get confident in their instincts. Some people won't. Some people will be cautious and only push surefire stuff.

That playstyle is also more likely to come from Mafia, because it's a safe playstyle.

Those people are not better, and they can lose just as easily because nothing risked is nothing gained.

How many wolves have you caught?

Count 'em. None.

How many wolves have I caught, albeit indirectly?

Only the actual deep wolf, Athena.

Neither I nor Beru -- who said I was the thing driving this game -- suspected Athena. And yet we caught him. Suck it, get over it, and get a way of playing that doesn't depend on bad sportsmanship.

Don't care, I'm not lynching Baldrick ATM.

[Makaze]

4 minutes ago, Omega. said:

5/1/1 right now.

mislynch = 4/1/1

crosskills = 2/1/1 d6

I don't think village can win in that scenario unless I missed something or some weird role shit

We have Evan... And in this scenario, the Mafia and the SK are going to kill each other before it gets to 1v1 because SK's win kingmaker by design (hosts don't like kingmakers).

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, Omega. said:

Don't care, I'm not lynching Baldrick ATM.

Then you're not lynching.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

4 hours ago, Refa said:

Actually no, the way EvanManManMan claimed his role and misread it makes it seem more likely to come from town...Mafia sucks.

##Unvote

Haven't you said this about most of the claims by now?

[Fable]

Just now, Omega. said:

I'm making a judgement call as to how you'd approach this Day as wolf vs. villa. I really don't get why you're pushing us as the likeliest in your pool. I really don't. Like, for me to be W you have to believe I went at multiple bros when you yourself, earlier in this game, said that I'm against bussing. For Kill to be W, you have to believe kirsche bussed from pretty much the getgo.

Do you not see why I think it's unlikely for someone to think that as a probability? I'm serious, I'm not being smart with you. I don't get it.

Because Makaze is confirmed villager

Refa is basically confirmed V at this point

Baldrick is unlikely IMO with how wolves were pushing there but with how athena went maybe not

That literally just leaves me  with kill, you, and Evan 

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Omega. said:

Haven't you said this about most of the claims by now?

Probably.  Well, not Makaze/you/Kill/Baldrick.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

Just now, Fable said:

Because Makaze is confirmed villager

Refa is basically confirmed V at this point

Baldrick is unlikely IMO with how wolves were pushing there but with how athena went maybe not

That literally just leaves me  with kill, you, and Evan 

Why do you think Refa is confirmed V? 

Who do you think is individually the wolfiest player in the bottom three?

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

5 minutes ago, Refa said:

Probably.  Well, not Makaze/you/Kill/Baldrick.

What's on your mind in general? Here for a bit.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

8 minutes ago, Makaze said:

We have Evan... And in this scenario, the Mafia and the SK are going to kill each other before it gets to 1v1 because SK's win kingmaker by design (hosts don't like kingmakers).

Someone is fairly deep.

That someone being Baldrick as opposed to like you/Refa/Fable/Evan is a hard sell. I mean him no offense, but I think this gamestate points to a more experienced wolf/ITP. I think Kill is V too.

[Makaze]

9 minutes ago, Baldrick said:

@Makaze  In order to edit the post, the format is fucked. Deal with it, I can only spoonfeed you so much.

 

Quote

Day 2.Iris does votals again, thanks SB
RADicate (4): Omega., Refa, athena_57, Mackc2
Omega (3): Walrein, eclipse
athena_57 (2): Shinori, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy
Mackc2 (2): Jaybee, Zkirsche
Zkirsche (2): RADicate, Mackc2
Weapons (2): BBM, Alette
eclipse (1): Makaze
Jaybee (1): Via
Shinori (1): Weapons

Not Voting: Kaoz, Lord Gaius, Fable, SullyMcGully

You have ~17 hours left in the day.  With 20 alive, it takes 7 to lynch and 14 to hammer.

Note the way mafia are voting right now. If Junko is the member they want to keep alive above all else.

      Quote

    Day 2.Almost to the end
    Junko (6): Omega., Refa, athena_57, Mackc2, eclipse
    athena_57 (2): Shinori, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy
    Mackc2 (2): Jaybee, Zkirsche
    Weapons (2): BBM, Alette
    eclipse (1): Makaze
    Jaybee (1): Via
    Omega (1): Walrein
    Shinori (1): Weapons
    Zkirsche (1): Junko

    Not Voting: Kaoz, Lord Gaius, Fable, SullyMcGully

    You have ~11.5 hours left in the day.  With 20 alive, it takes 7 to lynch and 14 to hammer.

    This is a pretty decisive move in regards to their ace in the hole.

          Quote

        Day 2.yawn
        Junko (8): Omega., athena_57, Mackc2, eclipse, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy, Kaoz, Zkirsche
        eclipse (5): Makaze, Lord Gaius, Refa, BBM, Jaybee
        Zkirsche (2): Junko, SullyMcGully
        athena_57 (1): Shinori
        Jaybee (1): Via
        Omega (1): Walrein
        Shinori (1): Arcanite
        Arcanite (1): Alette

        Not Voting: Fable

        You have ~4 hours left in the day.  With 20 alive, it takes 7 to lynch and 14 to hammer.

        The eclipse wagon seems to have come about mostly from the non-mafia. Jaybee is riding the coat-tails, if junk and shinori want to sac eclipse opportunity is knocking.

              Quote

            Day 2.woke up from a nap is sleepy
            Junko (7): athena_57, Mackc2, eclipse,  Kaoz, Zkirsche, Fable
            Zkirsche (5): Junko, SullyMcGully, Omega., Refa, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy
            eclipse (4): Makaze, Lord Gaius, BBM, Jaybee
            Jaybee (1): Via
            Omega (1): Walrein
            Shinori (1): Arcanite
            Arcanite (1): Alette

            Not Voting: Shinori

            You have ~24 minutes left in the day.  With 20 alive, it takes 7 to lynch and 14 to hammer.

            The moment has passed. Junk can't switch for NMoM, Shinori unvoted rather than try to affect the lynch.

                  Quote

                Junko (9): athena_57, Mackc2, eclipse,  Kaoz, Zkirsche, Fable, Refa, BBM
                Zkirsche (6): Junko, SullyMcGully, Omega., Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy, Makaze, Via
                eclipse (3): Lord Gaius, Jaybee, Shinori
                Omega (1): Walrein
                Shinori (1): Arcanite
                BBM (1): Alette

                Shinori decides NOW is the time to put the sac eclipse masterplan into action.

                 

                In your world, the sacrifice mafia tried to engineer to keep their massblocker alive is the mayor, their best tool for manipulating the lynch the way they want it.

                They had two mafia, including the mayor, on their massblocker, and had one mafia on their sac target when the momentum of that lynch was at its peak.

                 

                Pedit: Are you saying the way town solves the game is to make vague accusations, and doesn't post any evidence to convince others they are right? Not saying that's what refa is doing, I believe he will reread me, but you're implying you would be OK if Refa didn't bother following up.

 

@Refa You can respond too, if you think the case on me is not bullshit.

I think it's simple. Mafia didn't have a choice but to put some votes on Junko. We know this happened. What was more important to Shinori was distancing himself, and I think the real play they were going for was lynching Athena and getting cleared off of it.

What I can be sure of is that there is no logical incentive to prefer Kirsche's slot over Junko's if both are Mafia.

And I have strong convictions all the other players besides Omega are town.

So that leaves you.

Whether I can get the details behind the inner workings of the scumteam under duress exactly right or not, I can think of many possibilities that make sense and explain the behavior. When Shinori realized the eclipse thing wasn't catching on, he unvoted to distance himself completely, because his attempt to move stuff off of Junko was failing, and he didn't want to make eclipse look bad either.

The best way you can change my mind is to case the real Mafia, not tell me why my case is shit. I can make any kind of case to justify what I know must be true, and it will make sense in my head. So just come up with a better one, that explains the actual facts, and if I'm wrong, I'll reconsider and sheep your argument.

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, Omega. said:

Someone is fairly deep.

That someone being Baldrick as opposed to like you/Refa/Fable/Evan is a hard sell. I mean him no offense, but I think this gamestate points to a more experienced wolf/ITP. I think Kill is V too.

Or... it points to someone riding by on an early clear with no later re-analysis or pressure. Which seems far more likely to me, than someone being amazing at deep wolfing here. Because no matter who the deep is, they can't control the actions of other Mafia members.

If it's not Baldrick, then it's Kill. I'm pretty sure it's Baldrick atm.

[Fable]

4 minutes ago, Omega. said:

Why do you think Refa is confirmed V? 

Who do you think is individually the wolfiest player in the bottom three?

Because it makes no sense to give village a miller and then make the role cop and wolf and he was kinda breadcrumbing it just a bit with the snike lynch so he's just a villager most of the time. 

Then there's him pushing athena which I don't think he needed to do as a wolf.

I don't know how I would rank my bottom 3 at all. Kill<You/Evan maybe. 

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

I am not lynching Kill.

I am not lynching Baldrick.

Not today. If that happens, it will be without me. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I don't want to lynch there, and won't.

More obviously evident is that there is no way in fuck that Fable/Mak/Refa/Evan are all V. I do not know what any of them are doing right now.

Let's hear what Evan says, I want to see his case.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

Out for the night.

[Refa]

Just now, Omega. said:

What's on your mind in general? Here for a bit.

I'm so checked out with this game.  There's like a 2/6 chance of hitting scum (probably 2/5, Scum Treestump is idiotic) and I don't know where to look.

Makaze/Evan/Fable have role related reasons to be town, Kill/you/Baldrick have play related reasons to be town.  Knowing your philosophy, I can get why you value the later more but I'm really having a rough time scumreading the role related people.  Makaze is a Treestump, If Evan is scum than this game is ridiculously scumsided (we could mislynch once and misvig once and lose), and I don't see why Scum!Fable would assume "his role failed because he targeted someone with no action, not because he got roleblocked".  

You, I just don't see as being scum from your general play and when you do post reads, I think the intent is genuine.  If you're taking me for a ride, I'll be so salty in postgame.  Kill reminds me of my earlier mafia games where I'd get super salty if someone scumread me as town (I might actually still be this way...), and Baldrick is the one I feel least confident about.  The reasons for townreading him were not mine, I just said "okay, this seems fine, I'll write him off the list".  If someone of these six people is a wolf, that's where I'd look (hence my vote).

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, Omega. said:

I am not lynching Kill.

I am not lynching Baldrick.

Not today. If that happens, it will be without me. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I don't want to lynch there, and won't.

More obviously evident is that there is no way in fuck that Fable/Mak/Refa/Evan are all V. I do not know what any of them are doing right now.

Let's hear what Evan says, I want to see his case.

They are all V. The PoE is an ITP and a Mafia between Kill/Omega/Baldrick.

It's not going to happen how you want. End of story.

[Refa]

2 minutes ago, Omega. said:

I am not lynching Baldrick.

Not today. If that happens, it will be without me. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I don't want to lynch there, and won't.

Okay, let me know what you're thinking here.  Why are you so confident on Baldrick?

 

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

1 minute ago, Refa said:

Makaze/Evan/Fable have role related reasons to be town, Kill/you/Baldrick have play related reasons to be town.  Knowing your philosophy, I can get why you value the later more but I'm really having a rough time scumreading the role related people.  Makaze is a Treestump, If Evan is scum than this game is ridiculously scumsided (we could mislynch once and misvig once and lose), and I don't see why Scum!Fable would assume "his role failed because he targeted someone with no action, not because he got roleblocked".  

This game is already confirmed scumsided.

We lynched three wolves, shot another, and are still in endgame.

Out for real.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

1 minute ago, Refa said:

Okay, let me know what you're thinking here.  Why are you so confident on Baldrick?

 

The odds of Fable/Evan/Mak/evan you hold a stronger chance of holding W/ITP.

That said, I probably don't lynch you today simply because you've played one of the better games and have helped the village several times. Why are you doubting Baldrick? The eclipse thing is convoluted. That slot's obviously off the table, Mak's horseshit aside.