We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[Alette]

15 hours ago, Makaze said:

Back to tinfoiling. Other than that LG TMI read, there was one other tinfoil that I kept considering and dismissing during work today, and that was the off the wall idea that Alette could have been Mafia killing Jaybee for automatic indefinite towncred, which would explain why she has been so unhelpful otherwise. My thought process was this:

Suppose you sub into a mafia dayvig slot, have not read the game, you just lost two Mafia the previous day, and you are watching a third scum buddy get lynched without a hitch. Assuming you are Mafia, would you Dayvig a scum buddy, or would you take the very risky move and Dayvig some other town player who wasn't a primary lynch target? How would this look when the lynch ended up Mafia?

In this world, LG's claim is probably real. In this case, I'd very much like to hear details on this role. @Lord Gaius please come back and have real content? please?

Realistically, I think this is an incredibly bad play, but I think Alette has not been actually helping her team no matter what she is, other than killing a Mafia. Even if she is right about Snike, she has the wrong reasons, and I see no reason to expect her to get a case that takes into account anyone's entire ISO. I can't imagine her making a case off of more than one post at this rate.

Lol i'm bad at casing first of all and I usually get the wagon I want by being a loud mouth. How would my reasons for snike being mafia be bad? If Snike is mafia than what do you think the correct reason  is?

[Makaze]

2 minutes ago, Alette said:

I'm not really sure how to articulate why I currently don't like the Arc wagon, but the push to it seems very messy. I'm not liking how the hydra is there, but how kill is pushing it just vibes scummy. I'm still catching up from page 108 to, but weapons frustration before Arc came in seemed townie too.

 

4 minutes ago, Alette said:

 

I'd agree re: the numbers

so I think this Arc lynch being scum LED is unlikely. specifically because I feel that arc is independently scummy and most of the people scum reading him are confirmed town to me (notably me)

 

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, Alette said:

Lol i'm bad at casing first of all and I usually get the wagon I want by being a loud mouth. How would my reasons for snike being mafia be bad? If Snike is mafia than what do you think the correct reason  is?

That he has posts that read as ingenuine, AND/OR that he makes sense with the known mafia.

[Alette]

1 minute ago, Makaze said:

 

I'd agree re: the numbers

so I think this Arc lynch being scum LED is unlikely. specifically because I feel that arc is independently scummy and most of the people scum reading him are confirmed town to me (notably me)

 

I don't think everyone on the wagon is town except for like Refa/Via/Wals/You and the others are less reassuring to me

[Makaze]

i.e. anything other than vague "he has an agenda"

i have an agenda. im trying to get sully lynched on d4

that doesn't make me mafia

its just a bad reasoning. your entire philosophy might be bad, i don't know. if so, it makes it very hard to read you because its impossible to tell if you are town or mafia. you can make bad reads either way if you use bad methods

[Makaze]

Just now, Alette said:

I don't think everyone on the wagon is town except for like Refa/Via/Wals/You and the others are less reassuring to me

those people arne't scum reading him independently

some people have explicitly FELT that he is scummy

and those people who had those feelings are town

the other people had reasons. less personal, less opinion based reasons that are harder to read. like yours for readng snike.

[Alette]

1 minute ago, Makaze said:

That he has posts that read as ingenuine, AND/OR that he makes sense with the known mafia.

I've said that he seems to be carrying an Agenda. That's pretty similar to being Ingenuine imo. His partner basically not being around really reminds me of how I kept waiting for Sunbae in hydra games when we randed Scum. It reminds me of my own play a bit.

[Alette]

2 minutes ago, Makaze said:

i.e. anything other than vague "he has an agenda"

i have an agenda. im trying to get sully lynched on d4

that doesn't make me mafia

its just a bad reasoning. your entire philosophy might be bad, i don't know. if so, it makes it very hard to read you because its impossible to tell if you are town or mafia. you can make bad reads either way if you use bad methods

LOL. It's usually that i'm very different as Mafia because i make much more sense and @Walreincan verify this. I'm just telling you how I see things.

[Makaze]

 

Just now, Alette said:

I've said that he seems to be carrying an Agenda. That's pretty similar to being Ingenuine imo. His partner basically not being around really reminds me of how I kept waiting for Sunbae in hydra games when we randed Scum. It reminds me of my own play a bit.

okay, so, in your world, who else is mafia with snike? who make sense as snike's partner?

[Alette]

Just now, Makaze said:

 

okay, so, in your world, who else is mafia with snike? who make sense as snike's partner?

I'm starting to see Kill as a potential partner because the Arc push he has done. Let me finish my read up 

[Alette]

The miller claim from Snike is very strange and it's ideal for a miller to say they are one earlier if it's known to themselves.

[Makaze]

Posting my final PoE/reads before I have to out for the night. Assuming cousins are showing up. It remains unchanged from before, but I still want to bring up my misgivings.

I'd make an addendum that Alette's defenses today are much better tonally than yesterday and I am less prone to think she is playing me, so much as just off the wall and incapabe of casing.

athena_57
Baldrick (replacing eclipse)
Fable
Mackc2 (replacing Nightmare)
Refa
Via
Walrein
Killthestory (replacing Zkirsche)
SatsumaFSoySoy + Snike (replacing Polydeuces) - Possible ITP... 
Omega (replacing Marth) - I have a lot of mixed feelings about his content. He is definitely more opportunistic than Kills to me. If there is an ITP left I think this could be it... Role based especially. But no way to prove it.
Alette (replacing Fenrir Aesir (replacing Anime27Arts)) - Somewhat suspect for not really contributing despite the dayvig -- this is a possible world

Kaoz (replacing Bibbon) - Suspect if Arc is town and he doesn't lynch Sully

Lord Gaius (replacing Eärendil) - Looks much better if Arc is scum. Clear if I am right about both Arc and Sully.

Arcanite (replacing Weapons)
SullyMcGully (replacing Elieson)

[Makaze]

Just now, Alette said:

The miller claim from Snike is very strange and it's ideal for a miller to say they are one earlier if it's known to themselves.

He claimed it practically start of the game as soon as he subbed in

[Makaze]

I am going to go ahead and downplay my Kaoz paranoia too. I think Kaoz is just asking a question. Put him back at light green

[Alette]

14 hours ago, Makaze said:

If Alette is Mafia and she dayvigged a partner I doubt she would shy away from lynching her last one (assumed number) and winning alone. She's got the clear if she does so. But yeah IDK, she's so bad it's unreadable almost.

lol day vigging a partner is just bad because i crack under pressure

[Makaze]

Just now, Alette said:

lol day vigging a partner is just bad because i crack under pressure

ive been bullying you and you haven't cracked tho

for real i think you are tunneling on snike. what will you do if arc flips scum?

[Makaze]

tl;dr i feel like you aren't actually trying to get snike lynched and aren't ever going to actually quote his posts with specific phrases to make that happen

id love it if you'd prove me wrong but i read ALL of snike's posts and i didn't get the same impression you did

and i am the quickest gun in this town

how are you going to convince other people of your case when i spend almost all of my time convincing people of mine and still fail on some

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

Fuck it, gonna go ahead and say throw Makaze in the jail pool along with obvious villagers. Feelsbadman. Don't jail/protect me under any circumstances or I lynch you. I have no idea what Makaze is, but I want to see what he says after a flip. Pretty much no one has given a shit to solve this irl day besides him, so I'll give 'im another day with a caveat of continued monitoring. I also have to look back on how JB/Shinori treated him to see if they were just riding coattails. Main reason I'm floating this is because the thread died today and if he's villa, I don't want to have a D3 where we all just sit on a wagon while like....Kill is the only other one generating new leads/ideas.

I'm not committing to a V read here at all. I think he's done some wolfy shit. But whatever; this is a special case and we have enough wiggle room that I can be flexible here.

Regarding Sully, I'm leaning likelier V at the moment. I can explain if you really think it's that important, but i was really hoping/waiting more people commented on this divide between you two on this matter. I don't want to show my hand yet, telegraph anything, or kill discussion around an important matter before it starts by offering a strong opinion.

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, Omega. said:

Don't jail/protect me under any circumstances or I lynch you.

Explain this please?

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

And for fuck's sake, stop calling him V for no reason other than tone. Like, people have actually called him more villagery than like me/athena/etc at different points, which is ridiculous. All I ask is exercise some healthy skepticism and don't get complacent.

[Alette]

3 minutes ago, Makaze said:

tl;dr i feel like you aren't actually trying to get snike lynched and aren't ever going to actually quote his posts with specific phrases to make that happen

id love it if you'd prove me wrong but i read ALL of snike's posts and i didn't get the same impression you did

and i am the quickest gun in this town

how are you going to convince other people of your case when i spend almost all of my time convincing people of mine and still fail on some

By being a loudmouth and trying to describe how I see it because i'm awful at remembering each post i found wrong. Like you can see that i've stated I don't remember things fondly if they don't make sense personally. I know that isn't the best way to play either, but I just don't agree with everyone on Snike being town. 

[Alette]

@RefaCan I ask again why you voted Arcanite?

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

2 minutes ago, Makaze said:

Explain this please?

Jailing/protecting me would be throwing. It'd delay the action until N4 so guarantees a kill succeeds tonight, and I can't do shit at night to help the village. Better spent on slots/power roles that can.

[Makaze]

2 minutes ago, Alette said:

By being a loudmouth and trying to describe how I see it because i'm awful at remembering each post i found wrong. Like you can see that i've stated I don't remember things fondly if they don't make sense personally. I know that isn't the best way to play either, but I just don't agree with everyone on Snike being town. 

uh

did you mean to say snike there

[Makaze]

Just now, Omega. said:

Jailing/protecting me would be throwing. It'd delay the action until N4 so guarantees a kill succeeds tonight, and I can't do shit at night to help the village. Better spent on slots/power roles that can.

Alright. What made you think this need to be said?