Persona 5 Mafia - Game Over

[Zkirsche]

Bart why am I on there?

[Bartozio]

Proces of elimination really.

[SullyMcGully]

12 hours ago, Baldrick said:

Kirsche, you and Prims were suspecting me D1? Couldn't find anything except kirsche calling me forgettable. Marth (one of your buddy candidates) was one of the first calling me out D1 and voting me D2. Shinori I was voting near deadline D1, wouldn't that be a big risk considering people had been suspicious of him and both you and be were wagons? You say Mackc is the most likely of the asso reads to bus, you think the scum would be resigned to having to lynched one of their own just because they'd gotten a few votes?

I think you might be trying too hard to justify my lynch with asso reads. Scum will know once I am lynched that they can throw out those reads. You are preparing to resume an act of confusion once I flip.

 

##unvote

##vote: sully

I know you may have turned in already (this post took a while) and won't be back for awhile. Respond whenever you can.

This is what I deserve for making posts when I'm half-asleep.

Lemme go back and look at this. I think Kirsche was commenting on your absence in one of his early posts, but all things considered, I suppose he hasn't put as much pressure on you as I thought he had. I also forgot Marth was the first guy to say "hey, what happened to Baldrick's post quality?" so that's my bad. I clearly recall Prims saying something like "you think I'm voteparking, then what do you call what Bartozio and Baldrick are doing?" and he also said you had the worst reason for voting Ken/LG. 

I did a few posts towards the end of D1 where I called you out on the change in post quality, I thought your stuff at the end of D1 was fishy but I wasn't around to comment on it then.

And quite plainly, I would be very confused if you didn't flip scum. I suppose my next suspect would be Shinori, but that would be more based on the cases of others than on anything of my own. 

I didn't get enough sleep last night. I'm going to get some rest, and when I'm back, hopefully I'll be able to make some posts of some value. 

Who knew Mafia was so hard on sleep cycles?

[Shinori]

2 hours ago, Bartozio said:

 

It bothers me quite a bit that Shinori and Balderick have made several passing remarks about finding each other scummy, without ever commiting to it. Shinori has been saying he suspects Balderick for a while now, but never really posted a case on him. Balderick started to focus on Shinori mostly after he got under pressure, even though he said he was more sus on Marth on D1. Could very well be because Shinori is the actual scum between the two (him and Marth I mean).

Please either read my fucking posts and don't say stuff you don't understand.  I would seriously enjoy it if you would find the last time I actually listed Baldrick as my top scum read.  I also enjoy how your entire post is basically nothign except for things a lot of other people have said in my opinion.  I think it was BBM who stated a very similar post.  I would love to see you scum hunt this game, basically all you've done is sheep people's votes and cases while just not posting.

Mich > Bartozio still as my lynch priority and this bart post doesn't change my mind at all.

[Shinori]

If we are posting scum teams that are plausible, I could see Mich/Bartozio/Kirsche, but maybe I'm just biased.  Maybe swap out Kirsche for BBM.  Or I could be entirely wrong in my reads and if sully ISNT town then Mich/Bart/Sully.

[Zkirsche]

@Shinori I know I'm unmemorable but did you have any thoughts on my Prims case or any closing thoughts on my previous BBM case?

ISO time on Baldy:

He seems to ask a lot of questions but not a lot of them went anywhere. For example:

Quote

It's entirely possible at least one person who's piggybacking off other cases is scum trying to fly under the radar. Based on what information you have, who is the most likely culprit?

Baldrick doesn't state who he thinks is piggybacking off other cases and as far as I can see doesn't really refer back to this question at all. Similarly, there's this statement:

Quote

@sully; I haven't played with him before, but I have seen the mafia target certain players that they think will be easier to mislynch.

Not a question but anotehr statement where his own thoughts on the matter aren't clear: for context he's answering Sully's point about Mack possibly targetting Mich as an easy mislynch. He doesn't seem to state whether or not he thinks Mack is targetting him. He does later scumread Mack for reasons Sully brought up but its not clear if this was the reason or not. These two exampels are scummy as not committing to conclusions is a nice way of crusing through the day.

I would like some more clarity on his Ken park: @Baldrick Would you say you were voting him based off on him having no reads and disappearing, his attitude and defensiveness, both or neither? This might help me put into perspective your comments and thoughts on Ken as I got mixed messages from his posts. Also, what is the scum intent in not having reads? I have an opinion but would like to hear your answer.

What do other people make of Baldrick making posts like this? Would scum really make such an empty post and hit send? I would think they would be too self-conscious for that but I don't know Baldrick. It certainly is "safe" content but is it content likely to come from scum? @BBM  @Bartozio @Refa @Paperblade Would like some insight on this as I'm not sure myself.

You mentioned you would-lynch Marth here, was this based off of his comments about numbers?

Good post. He follows up on his previous reads and pressures that which he finds odd. Next few are fine too. Nothing "wow amazing point there" but less safe and more conclusive and thoughtful than the first few.

Really don't like the way he jumped back on the Gaius wagon. He waited for Gaius to acclimatise like he said he would, but then votes him anyway after he puts out a couple of cases for seemingly "not doing enough" with no mention of whether Gaius' cases are wrong, right or likely to come from scum. Theres no justification for dropping the Shinori vote for the Gaius one really.

Quote

No. I unvoted Ken to pursue other scumreads (compared to you unvoting Shinori and doing nothing with it) and voted him to secure a lynch

Wait, so you only voted Gaius to secure the lynch, not because Gaius tried defending Ken and didn't put out enough content upon subbing in? Why didn't you just say that? Now I get what BBM was talking about.

Baldy who do you want lynched now? Still Mack now that he's proven that he's in contact with Paperblade? Shinori, Marth? What are your thoughs on Marth'sD2 because I thought much of your problems with Marth stemmed from his mid D1 stuff. Maybe I'm wrong on that though. I don't think you've really explained what's wrong with Marth recent stuff, even going so far as to call his Shinori pressure "null".

I am mostly ok with a Baldierick lynch right now. If he was scum then I'd expect scum to have been on the Mack wagon because there was not a lot of resistance to Baldrick's wagon, which looks bad for Bart, Via and Sully mostly. I don't think both Bart and Baldrick would park on Ken all D1 as buddies because I don't think buddies would group up in such an obvious manner. Despite Marth's valid point about it being a defence of a wagon, I'm still not sure if scum!via really looks that deep to defend Baldrick, so maybe I was wrong with my initial assessment of Sully confirmation phase post. This means I'll have to reread his posts too urk. I guess I could also see him/Shinori being buddies even though he has been casing Shinori for much of the two phases, he kind of drops his Shinori vote kinda quickly both phases and he hasn't really jumped back on from what I can see.

If Baldrick flips town then, mostly by PoE my scum team would be Bart and some combinations of Mich//Shinori/Sully/BBM which I'd hope becomes clear from the ISOing (BBM's cases and thought processes this phase are good so he's probably the least likely here now). I think Refa/Mack are strong town on play/role and think Via/Marth are town based on comments and plays (BBM's defence of Marth is pretty solid).

Quote

If we are posting scum teams that are plausible, I could see Mich/Bartozio/Kirsche, but maybe I'm just biased.

Where's the bias here?

[SB.]

Votals 2.5

Baldrick (6): BBM, Marth, Mackc2, Bartozio, Refa, SullyMcGully
SullyMcGully (2): Michelaar, Baldrick
Bartozio (1): kirsche
Michelaar (1): Shinori
kirsche (1): Via

With 11 alive, it takes 4 to lynch and 8 to hammer. Phase ends in 27 hours and 35 minutes.

Checking on prods now.

[SB.]

Michelaar has been prodded.

[SullyMcGully]

So I was rereading some of Shinori's material and noticed this, referring to the Baldrick post I quoted earlier:

On 11/30/2017 at 11:56 AM, Shinori said:

This seems like a poor play. Lost motivation because you feel Ken is going to be lynched so you just like stop putting in that much effort overall.  I can understand the whole apatheticness but I feel like this post followed by his Marth vote which was fairly quickly replaced with a vote on me is really weird and I feel like he's just looking for a lynch anywhere not LG.

This doesn't mean I'm saying Baldrick and Shinori can't be a team, but any previous thoughts that the latter had no posted opinion on the former on D1 can be put to rest. 

Later, Shinori posted a lynch list with Baldrick in third place, behind Bart and Mich.

@Shinori: I never really got why you thought Michelaar was scummy at this point. Could you clarify?

16 hours ago, Shinori said:

All this day I've been focusing on other people > Baldrick.  He was already lower on my list of suspicions after the first few hours of this day phase.  I guess logically I don't see him as being scum cause I don't think scum would make such a poor decision but it's happened before so I would consolidate on him if we want to lynch.  I'm realistically very neutral on whether he gets lynched or not.  Would much rather Bartozio or Mich get lynched though.

@Shinori: by "poor decision" here, are you referring to Baldrick's Ken/LG vote, or something else? 

And finally, @Shinori: assuming Michelaar is scum, what differences do you think we would see in his playstyle this game if he were not scum?

It's milking time, folks. I'll be back in three hours.

[Baldrick]

 

1 hour ago, kirsche said:

Baldrick doesn't state who he thinks is piggybacking off other cases and as far as I can see doesn't really refer back to this question at all. Similarly, there's this statement:

Not a question but anotehr statement where his own thoughts on the matter aren't clear: for context he's answering Sully's point about Mack possibly targetting Mich as an easy mislynch. He doesn't seem to state whether or not he thinks Mack is targetting him. He does later scumread Mack for reasons Sully brought up but its not clear if this was the reason or not. These two exampels are scummy as not committing to conclusions is a nice way of crusing through the day.

The first was me trying to give Sully a prompt. Talking about ED1 sheeps is not a thing midway through D1 when there's more recent content.

If I didn't elaborate on Sully's reasons then it pretty obviously is because I have already stated it?

-

1 hour ago, kirsche said:

I would like some more clarity on his Ken park: @Baldrick Would you say you were voting him based off on him having no reads and disappearing, his attitude and defensiveness, both or neither? This might help me put into perspective your comments and thoughts on Ken as I got mixed messages from his posts. Also, what is the scum intent in not having reads? I have an opinion but would like to hear your answer.?

On 12/2/2017 at 2:37 PM, Baldrick said:

Already mentioned how I saw Ken was around, so he was active lurking without posting (inactive lurking?)

-

 

1 hour ago, kirsche said:

 

What do other people make of Baldrick making posts like this? Would scum really make such an empty post and hit send? I would think they would be too self-conscious for that but I don't know Baldrick. It certainly is "safe" content but is it content likely to come from scum? @BBM  @Bartozio @Refa @Paperblade Would like some insight on this as I'm not sure myself.

You mentioned you would-lynch Marth here, was this based off of his comments about numbers?

On 11/29/2017 at 3:23 PM, Baldrick said:

I had another look at Marth, the initial reasoning for the Bartozio was alright so it's weird he cited wagon numbers to justify it. Also, it might be trivial, but I feel there's a subtle difference between lazy and disinterested, where the latter is a slightly stronger feeling.

On 11/30/2017 at 6:38 PM, Baldrick said:

Marth

His Bartozio read was inconsistent, he was initially serious about it then tried to frame it as a pressure vote afterwards.

-

1 hour ago, kirsche said:

Really don't like the way he jumped back on the Gaius wagon. He waited for Gaius to acclimatise like he said he would, but then votes him anyway after he puts out a couple of cases for seemingly "not doing enough" with no mention of whether Gaius' cases are wrong, right or likely to come from scum. Theres no justification for dropping the Shinori vote for the Gaius one really.

Wait, so you only voted Gaius to secure the lynch, not because Gaius tried defending Ken and didn't put out enough content upon subbing in? Why didn't you just say that? Now I get what BBM was talking about.

22 hours ago, Baldrick said:

I typed an explanation as to why I didn't agree with the prims wagon, then redacted it because it was too emotional. Then I thought I couldn't leave it at that, I had to say something about Gaius. I was already running late so I picked the first post I saw, and posted it. If you also can't take it at face value, fair enough, but it is what happened.

-

1 hour ago, kirsche said:

Baldy who do you want lynched now? Still Mack now that he's proven that he's in contact with Paperblade? Shinori, Marth? What are your thoughs on Marth'sD2 because I thought much of your problems with Marth stemmed from his mid D1 stuff. Maybe I'm wrong on that though. I don't think you've really explained what's wrong with Marth recent stuff, even going so far as to call his Shinori pressure "null".

Couldn't find any scum intent in Marth's recent stuff. I think he's null, leaning scum; leaning because I still find Marth's Bartozio progression scummy, but it's now a small part of his content.

1 hour ago, kirsche said:

I guess I could also see him/Shinori being buddies even though he has been casing Shinori for much of the two phases, he kind of drops his Shinori vote kinda quickly both phases and he hasn't really jumped back on from what I can see.

On D1 I was voting him with 90 minutes of phase end, and I was the only vote on him. How can you describe that as "dropping him quickly"?

On D2 I was still voting him, my case on him was, according to you, a good post that is thoughtful and conclusive, and I was continually talking about him up until Mackc's claim. He hadn't, and still hasn't, got a single vote on him from anyone that's not me this phase. What am I supposed to achieve by "jumping back on"?

[BBM]

Do you actually find Sully to be the scummiest player itg or are you just voting him because he'll be easier to lynch than Shinori?

[Baldrick]

Shinori is still scummiest imo, but pre-Mackc claim I pushed him as hard as I could and got nothing. I don't see the point in staying the course and hoping people will magically start agreeing with me.

[SullyMcGully]

Been reading back over some of Mack's posts, and had some thoughts. Mack's play this game has been... poor. In very many ways, despite the apparent legitimacy of the PaperBlade claim, his previous posts still look scummy (which is why a lot of us were voting him). Now, his claim seems solid, so this isn't a serious suspicion of mine, but could it be that PaperBlade is town oblivious to Mack being scum or both of them are scum (or destined for it).

@everybody is there still ground for doubting certain aspects of Mack's claim, or is this just me being foolish?

[Shinori]

There was a post from Refa confirming that Paperblade was indeed talking to mack of some sort.  Unless refa and Mack are buddies that's not possible.

Refa had asked what Paper's last message was on a specific day on discord.  Mack answered and refa said it was correct.

[Bartozio]

3 minutes ago, SullyMcGully said:

Been reading back over some of Mack's posts, and had some thoughts. Mack's play this game has been... poor. In very many ways, despite the apparent legitimacy of the PaperBlade claim, his previous posts still look scummy (which is why a lot of us were voting him). Now, his claim seems solid, so this isn't a serious suspicion of mine, but could it be that PaperBlade is town oblivious to Mack being scum or both of them are scum (or destined for it).

@everybody is there still ground for doubting certain aspects of Mack's claim, or is this just me being foolish?

The only part that is a proven fact is that Mack is in contact with paper of course.

However, as long as Paper is town, it benefits us to keep Mack alive. We can always ask him whether Mack is confirmed town to him afterwards. At the very least, there's no way Paper benefits from Mack dying (and knowing this), because he wouldn't be coaching Mack otherwise.

Both of them being scum sounds odd, but I can't think of a good reason why it's not possible. I hope other people can say more about how likely that is.

Just in case: @Mackc2, is PaperBlade confirmed town for you?

[Refa]

The way I see it is this:

-Both of them being scum would be bullshit because it punishes scum too heavily for getting lynched once.

-Mackc2 scum/Paper town would be bullshit because it punishes town for lynching correctly.

-Mackc2 town/Paper scum would be bullshit because it rewards town for lynching incorectly.

Now, I could be wrong and SB could be a DUMB mod who thought "Man, Kaoz's role in Healer mafia was awesome, let's make a variant of that", so if I'm making any incorrect assumptions here, feel free to let me know.

[Refa]

@Mackc2 You should ask the mods if Paper can be targeted before he becomes a real boy and post it because if mafia has your Role PM, chances are they're privy to that information anyways.

[Zkirsche]

@Sully: We know PB must exist and is in contact with at least Mackc because of Refa, so it really just comes down to what the role could be. Let's suppose PB is town but Mack is scum, then the bit about PB being killed with him could be a lie. Then I can see three possibilities:

1) PB is released as claimed on D4. This is a high negative utility role for scum to possess, they effectively help town just be living longer which is ????.

2) PB isn't released as claimed on D4. Then we just lynch Mackc.

3) PB is released but there's a twist. E.g. he turns into scum unless Mackc is killed beforehand or something. This would be a very swingy role that I doubt is in the game and any variants thereof are just convoluted and would be impossible for town to play around properly.

If both are scum then PB is hidden scum which is ???? balance by itself. Could we even do anything to him?

##Unvote

##Vote: Paperblade

Iunno maybe they're both scum and Mack is telling the truth about them both dying at once, but then the game will just swing hardcore depending on if we lynch Mackc or not. I think probability wise it isn't likely that lynching Mackc is a good idea until after we see PB come back at the earliest. Now for Baldrick:

Quote

Already mentioned how I saw Ken was around, so he was active lurking without posting (inactive lurking?)

My impression was that you initially voted based on attitude, then kept your vote there because he had no reads (you didn't answer why not having reads is scummy btw), then was fine to lynch him because he disappeared.

Quote

The first was me trying to give Sully a prompt. Talking about ED1 sheeps is not a thing midway through D1 when there's more recent content.

If I didn't elaborate on Sully's reasons then it pretty obviously is because I have already stated it?

Yes but what happened to that prompt? It didn't seem to come up again and you don't really push for it?

Quote

On D1 I was voting him with 90 minutes of phase end, and I was the only vote on him. How can you describe that as "dropping him quickly"?

On D2 I was still voting him, my case on him was, according to you, a good post that is thoughtful and conclusive, and I was continually talking about him up until Mackc's claim. He hadn't, and still hasn't, got a single vote on him from anyone that's not me this phase. What am I supposed to achieve by "jumping back on"?

Fair enough on the 90 mins until phase end thing. I was just concerned by how easily you switched to Gaus considering that you didn't mention that SHinori made you feel better about him. Consolidation is understandable.

It was a good post, it's just, I'm a bit surprised that you didn't go back there after Mackc. It's not about "achieving anything" it's about lynching the guy you think is most scummy and if it's just a "not me over me" vote then switching to Mackc and really Sully isn't much better.

My main issue with lynching Baldrick is that his buddies are basically just letting him get lynched at this point?

[SB.]

Votals 2.6

Baldrick (6): BBM, Marth, Mackc2, Bartozio, Refa, SullyMcGully
SullyMcGully (2): Michelaar, Baldrick
Michelaar (1): Shinori
kirsche (1): Via

Not Voting (1): kirsche

With 11 alive, it takes 4 to lynch and 8 to hammer. Phase ends in 23 hours and 10 minutes.

[Refa]

3 minutes ago, kirsche said:

My main issue with lynching Baldrick is that his buddies are basically just letting him get lynched at this point?

Yeah, I'm getting a similar vibe but it could be possible that Mackc2 was the scum counterwagon and they had to jump ship after he became an unviable lynch candidate.  I've been skimming throughout the day, and there definitely has been resistance to the lynch, even though it was the biggest wagon for basically the entire day.

[Zkirsche]

Just now, Refa said:

Yeah, I'm getting a similar vibe but it could be possible that Mackc2 was the scum counterwagon and they had to jump ship after he became an unviable lynch candidate.  I've been skimming throughout the day, and there definitely has been resistance to the lynch, even though it was the biggest wagon for basically the entire day.

Yeah I thought the Mack wagon could have been it too. It's also possible that they have just given up on him considering he's 4 votes ahead of anyone else.

[Percivalé]

hey due to game unrelated (irl) things i probably won't be able to make another substantial post until later before phase end but why are we voting the hidden player

[Percivalé]

the vote on paper isn't in the votals so does that mean it counted (kirsche is on no vote now)

[Zkirsche]

I think it means it didn't count.

[Zkirsche]

I wouldn't try targetting PB with any investigation roles or anything.