September Legendary Banner Expectations

[Johann]

NEXT MONTH'S THREAD:

Please use the most recent thread if you intend to make posts about future banners. Feel free to use this thread for analysis of trends, etc.

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Alright, I've blown through all my orbs after deciding that August's banner is the banner for me. Here's the forecast for September:

CONFIRMABLE: The following heroes named are confirmed to return based on the notifications:

• Legendary Ike
• Legendary Hector
• Legendary Robin
• New Legendary Blue Hero (Earth) - See below for speculation and analysis on this hero.

SEASONALS: Once again, August's banner had only 3 seasonals. This is the third time in a row it's happened, so it's fairly safe to assume that it's the new normal. We've also finally gotten through the backlog of green seasonals, and future seasonals banners are far more balanced, making the predictions here much simpler.

• Spring Sharena - Extremely high odds. Last of the green seasonals before there's some balance.
• Spring Catria - Extremely high odds, rounding out the Spring banner.
• Bridal Tharja - Very high odds. She's the only red seasonal available until summer.
• Bridal Sanaki - Very low odds, due to Sharena appearing before her.
• Bridal Ninian - Very low odds, due to Catria appearing before her.

REGULAR 5★ HEROES: This has been getting easier to predict as well, especially since they've been including a CYL1 hero, a dancer, and other new or repeat heroes.

• Brave Roy - Good odds. Next in line after Sigurd for a reappearance from non-seasonals. Roy is also the only CYL1 hero not to make a reappearance on Legendary banners. I suspect they'd want to have him return before they start putting CYL2 heroes on the banners (which I'm not expecting til like November).
• Karla - Good odds, main competition being Brave Roy. Next in line for reds.
• Olivia (flying) - Very low odds, since Karla comes first. However, they've been including dancers on the banners lately so I wouln't rule out them putting her in ahead of time for that sake, though in that sense she's also competing for a slot with Ninian.
• Fallen Robin (M) - Good odds. Long overdue, owing to the glut of green seasonals to get through. However, I'm not sure if they'd put him on a banner with Legendary Hector due to both being powerful units with highly desirable skills.
• Olwen (green tome) - Low-ish odds, main competition being Fallen Robin appearing before her. Still a possibility if they decide they don't want two extremely desirable armors on the same pool.
• Ninian - Pretty good odds, given how she'd follow-up Azura and Nephenee as a Hero Fest character. On top of that, dancers have been making appearances quite a bit lately. She'd be a very natural fit.
• Sumia - Decent odds. She is the newest 5★ blue since Ishtar. If we get flying Olivia, I'm sure we'll get Sumia as well.
• Shiro - Very low odds, but possible, he'd be the first normal blue hero (excluding Brave Lucina) to make a reappearance on a Legendary banner.
• Takumi - Very good odds, he's next in line for a reappearance after Faye.
• Mirabelle - Good odds, she's the newest 5★ colorless since bow Hinoka.
• Jaffar - Low-ish odds, he's the next colorless unit in line after Takumi. He's also the last one before they started the cycle over again. It's basically him or Maribelle to round out the final slot.

MY PREDICTED LIST: This is my own guess based on everything above. I'm really feeling this one.

• Legendary Ike
• Brave Roy
• Bridal Tharja
• Legendary Hector
• Fallen Robin (M)
• Spring Sharena
• New Legendary Hero (Earth) - Micaiah?
• Ninian
• Spring Catria
• Legendary Robin
• Takumi
• Maribelle

WHO'S THAT POKEMON NEW HERO? According to the Reddit dataminers, the next season will be Earth. Thus, we have a Blue Earth hero. Barring curveballs like Lucina, I think it's fairly easy to narrow down a list of potential characters. Some of this is stuff I can directly copy from July's banner, which is nice for me. I'm expecting a blue tome user since we only have one legendary tome user.

• Micaiah - Blue tome user. Some people have argued that her Dark affinity in RD makes her closer to Earth type since many of the dark-described dragons are Earth Dragons. That she's a main character who's popular is enough to convince me that she's the most likely candidate.
• Bruno - Another blue tome. One never knows, though I suspect they have story ideas for him before we can ever summon him (CYL aside).
• Corrin - Blue dragon. Since s/he is a water dragon, I'd sooner expect her/him to appear as a Water legendary, especially when they start having to do repeat color/elements.
• Ylgr - Her being a blue tome user is not out of the question, though I suppose it's a little more likely that she'd be a staff user.
• King Gustav - The only other  OC we've heard of, so there's always a possibility that they could be introduced on a Legendary banner before a we are introduced to the character in story (like with Gunnthra). Seem a bit of a reach to me though.
• Robin - Blue tome male version, Grandmaster style. Seems highly unlikely to me that we'd get two Robins though.
• Some major villain character - Plenty of dragons to pick from for final bosses. A few standout antagonists like Reinhardt or Sephiran could possibly be blue tomes, as well.

FUTURE ANALYSIS: Based on the banner notes, we can tell what colors to expect. Thanks to dataminers on Reddit, we know what element they will be as well:

• October: Ephraim, Lyn, Robin, New Red Hero (Water)
• November: Ryoma, Lucina, Gunnthra, New Colorless Hero (Water again)
• December: Marth, Fjorm, either a green or colorless hero (Fire)
• Seasonal banners from here on have been very balanced, suggesting that we won't have issues with greens like we did before.
• I suspect that by the time we reach the Hoshidan Summer heroes in the line-up, they will do what they did with the Performing Arts banner; add one at a time. I know we had both Inigo and Shigure, but I think they wanted to get through the greens faster.
• I don't expect to see CYL2 heroes on these banners until November, but that's just a wild guess based on when original CYL and Legendary banners occurred.

Previous threads:

• June Banner Expectations
• July Banner Expectations
• August Banner Expectations

Also check out @Diovani Bressan's thread Future Legendary Heroes for even more Legendary Hero prediction & speculation. Goodness!

Edited September 29, 2018 by Johann

[Lord-Zero]

I’d go with Nino, Eliwood, Sigurd, M!Robin or Micaiah as the next legendary hero. 

[Fire Emblem Fan]

I'm definitely in agreement that Micaiah is the most likely candidate for September's Legendary hero. I feel like Eliwood, Roy, Chrom, Alm, and Celica would all be red, and I don't think they'd add in Caeda, Nino, or Lilina before any of those characters. Corrin could be a candidate, but I have a sneaking suspicion they may make him/her a colorless dragon, like they did with Robin. I'm really not expecting someone like Seliph, Leif, Sigurd, or any of the other Hoshidan or Nohrian royals anytime soon, for various reasons. So yeah, I'm definitely thinking Micaiah for September. Now watch as I'm completely wrong and it's Lilina wielding a blue tome or something.

[Tybrosion]

13 minutes ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

Now watch as I'm completely wrong and it's Lilina wielding a blue tome or something.

A Lilina alt (legendary or otherwise) getting Aureola wouldn't be out of the question if some of the other alts are to go by. They'd even have her being buddies with the Etrurian Mage General as a ready-made justification.

Heck if freaking Anamnesis Eirika is anything to go by, Aureola could end up with a non-mage (aka Eliwood) for all we know.

[Zapp Branniglenn]

Is it weird I look forward to these threads more than official banner announcements?

With that predicted list...That's not terrible for me. I have at least one of each color which kind of sucks. But the last LB I put orbs on gave me three out of four dupes despite me only having two of the nine focus units I was sniping for. So anything could happen.

And my guess for the legendary hero, as ever, is Corrin. Yeah she should be a water elemental but I'm not convinced anybody cares at the end of the day. I also think Corrin is going to the Ike and Hector School for powercreeping yourself, and blue manaketes are a class just asking to be one upped after all these years.

[Lewyn]

September legendary hero prediction.  Blue choices.

- Finn with PRF Brave lance

- Quan with Gae Bolg

- Altenna with Gae Bolg

- Seliph mounted with lance version of Holy Tyrfing

- Flying Reinhardt with Dire Thunder

- Ishtar with a different version of Mjolnir

- Ylgr

- Bruno

- Eliwood with Rex Hasta

- Athos with Aureola

- Caeda with Wing Spear

 

 

[Lord-Zero]

17 minutes ago, Lewyn said:

- Athos with Aureola

Hm? Nah. Athos would bring in a powercrept Forblaze or actually coming with Forblaze itself right out of the box kinda like Linus did. It’s still possible, though. 

@Tybrosion Eliwood with Aureola is actually pretty likely. Just give him the ceremonial garb and he’s good to go. Out of the 3 FE7 lords, Eliwood was the one that was most-magically inclined due to his superior res. Heck, they should have him say “Witness my magic!” as well. They could always give Aureola to Renault, though...

 

...I hope not.

Edited August 30, 2018 by Lord-Zero

[Florete]

I'm shit at guessing these so I'm just going to say Anna with a lance and know I'll be wrong. *Cries in no Anna alt*

[NekoKnight]

Micaiah (unless they save her a staff unit for November) would be my preferred blue hero. Other options are Lance Cavalry Eliwood, Mage Robin and Dragon Corrin, perhaps male this time in the same way L!Grima was a gender swap. Awakening and Blazing Sword already have two characters, so perhaps Telliis or Fateslandia are up next.

36 minutes ago, Tybrosion said:

Heck if freaking Anamnesis Eirika is anything to go by, Aureola could end up with a non-mage (aka Eliwood) for all we know.

All the legendary heroes so far use weapons available to them. The lone exception is Lucina, but she has bows in her reclass options.

[Tybrosion]

12 minutes ago, NekoKnight said:

All the legendary heroes so far use weapons available to them. The lone exception is Lucina, but she has bows in her reclass options.

True, but I also didn't say anything about that hypothetical Aureola Eliwood being a legendary. If anything, he probably would be a regular alt instead of a legendary.

[NekoKnight]

In regards to the elements of future months, we have 2 water/earth/fire elements but we only have room for one more fire hero in the grid. Maybe one of those will be changed to wind?

Edit: Nevermind, I was looking at the chart wrong. The February hero must be wind.

Edited August 30, 2018 by NekoKnight

[Fire Emblem Fan]

1 hour ago, Tybrosion said:

A Lilina alt (legendary or otherwise) getting Aureola wouldn't be out of the question if some of the other alts are to go by. They'd even have her being buddies with the Etrurian Mage General as a ready-made justification.

Heck if freaking Anamnesis Eirika is anything to go by, Aureola could end up with a non-mage (aka Eliwood) for all we know.

Oh I agree it wouldn't be out of the question, I just doubt they'd add that as Lilina's Legendary (assuming she even gets one) before a few other prominent characters get their Legendary.

[Landmaster]

These predicted seasonals are at least appealing~

[Diovani Bressan]

Elincia: Lost Princess is another good choice for the Red color. She didn't appear in any Legendary Banner yet.

Also, I believe we will have the CYL 2 units starting on october's banner. Two months is a enough time for them to rest in the normal summoning pool, before becoming a focus unit again.

[Lewyn]

On 8/29/2018 at 10:42 PM, Lord-Zero said:

Hm? Nah. Athos would bring in a powercrept Forblaze or actually coming with Forblaze itself right out of the box kinda like Linus did. It’s still possible, though. 

@Tybrosion Eliwood with Aureola is actually pretty likely. Just give him the ceremonial garb and he’s good to go. Out of the 3 FE7 lords, Eliwood was the one that was most-magically inclined due to his superior res. Heck, they should have him say “Witness my magic!” as well. They could always give Aureola to Renault, though...

 

...I hope not.

Hope Eliwood gets in soon.  He was always the red step child of FE7 lords, even though in reality is the main lord the main character of the 3.  He is the only one with good res and the only one who gets a mount on promotion, was underrated back then and still very overlooked today.  If they can give Lucina a blue bow, no reason they can't give Eliwood Aureola.  

 

[Sunwoo]

Even though this is way too early to call right now, I have a feeling that lords (or characters who are functionally similar to lords) who've received a non-seasonal alt won't be getting a legendary hero slot -- at the very least, they won't be part of the first 16 legendary heroes.

The current non-OC legendary heroes we have are the following:
RD!Ike
Ephraim
Female Robin possessed by Grima
Lyn
Ryoma
Hector
Lucina
Marth

Lords (or otherwise plot important characters) who have a non-seasonal alt:
Gleipnir Eirika
Exalt Chrom
Fallen Celica
Male Robin possessed by Grima (I'm pretty sure he counts)

Ignoring masked Marth, who was introduced way before either legendary heroes or non-seasonal alts were a thing, the two lists are currently mutually exclusive. I just can't see a legendary Eirika or legendary Chrom when their non-seasonal alts exist, and there's no reason to have both male and female Robin for legendary heroes. If Eliwood or any of the Jugdral lords get a non-seasonal alt, I'm going to assume they won't be one of the first 16 legendary heroes, and I don't expect to see any of the current legendary heroes we have get a non-seasonal alt anytime soon.

As always, I could be completely wrong about this, but I just can't see characters who already got a non-seasonal alt getting a legendary hero version of themselves, especially in close succession. But I guess if we get legendary Celica anytime soon (legendary Celica wielding Seraphim for September's blue hero?), then this theory can go straight to the gutter.

[xchan]

I love speculating about Legendary banners. IS always surprises me in one way or another with those.

I like your line up, except that I think it's too soon for Maribelle. They could put Jaffar in there instead of her. He is the last colorless unit left to be rerun, right?

I was hoping for Karla + VIke + Bridal Tharja for reds, but it looks like Brave Roy will be in it since Lancina was on the previous one. If he takes the spot of Karla, then I might skip this banner and aim for the next one.

[DefyingFates]

Any likely candidates from Thracia, given the current banner?

[redlight]

7 minutes ago, DefyingFates said:

Any likely candidates from Thracia, given the current banner?

Not likely. I'd give my two cents being that there's another new heroes banner this month.

But, if there isn't then legendary Seliph would be my guess. I'd doubt a lot of people would whale for him, however

Edited September 7, 2018 by silveraura25

[NSSKG151]

4 hours ago, DefyingFates said:

Any likely candidates from Thracia, given the current banner?

Isn't the current banner based on Genealogy though? It would have to be Sigurd or Seliph then but this month's Legendary is going to be wielding a blue colored weapon. Is there a special lance that they could use? Then again I know that Finn seems to be popular within the Fire Emblem community (at least in Japan I think) so I guess it is possible they could make some souped up Brave Lance and call him a Legendary hero but I don't know how important he is to the Jugdral narrative. Is Jugdral the only continent besides Valentia that is still left without a Legendary Hero at this point?

However, I am going to predict that there is going to be another new hero banner later this month and the legendary hero will be based on whatever game that banner covers. I think a new calendar should be coming up soon so I can be more sure of my prediction then.

 

[Lewyn]

Maybe it could be Dierdre with a blue Naga tome (People want blue dragon slayer right?  I know Ryoma with inherited cloud maragi dagger exists now, but still).  Maybe she will be on a horse just for variety sake (she never gets one in FE4).  They could also give Sigurd or Seliph a made up PRF lance (they can wield lances).  Ishtar is Gen2 but one of the most popular FE4 units.  Altenna could come, I mean Ethlyn specifically mentions having a daughter in her description, seems a hint at her coming eventually.  

I hope Judgral finally gets a representative.

[SSbardock84]

Hmm, Hrid is who I think it'll be tbh. If he's not this one, then I think he'll be the next one. Eliwood or Roy will be the next Fire Legendary Hero probably, but that'll be a while since we just got Marth.

[mampfoid]

On 30.8.2018 at 3:46 AM, Johann said:

Y PREDICTED LIST: This is my own guess based on everything above. I'm really feeling this one.

• Legendary Ike
• Brave Roy
• Bridal Tharja
• Legendary Hector
• Fallen Robin (M)
• Spring Sharena
• New Legendary Hero (Earth) - Micaiah?
• Ninian
• Spring Catria
• Legendary Robin
• Takumi
• Maribelle

I'm saving orbs for this banner, this constellation would be pretty good for me to pull all colors:

• red:
  • I want Roy merges,
  • Tharja and Ike are awesome fodder
• green:
  • I want one L!Hector,
  • Robin is good fodder,
  • a better nature for my Sharena would be welcome (not -SPD again)
• blue (possible skip color):
  • New legendary would be interesting
  • Ninian is good fodder and merge material,
  • Catria is good fodder and could use a better nature than -ATK.  
• colorless:
  • I want finally a flying Robin
  • Takumi is good fodder
  • Maribelle would be new to me

[Florete]

On 9/8/2018 at 6:42 PM, SSbardock84 said:

Hmm, Hrid is who I think it'll be tbh. If he's not this one, then I think he'll be the next one. Eliwood or Roy will be the next Fire Legendary Hero probably, but that'll be a while since we just got Marth.

This one will be blue. Hrid wields a sword.

[RexBolt]

37 minutes ago, Florete said:

This one will be blue. Hrid wields a sword.

Maybe he's actually a blue unit and the sword is just his aesthetic? 

But he and/or Fjorm will show up soon anyways.