Qprogue Mafia - Game Over

[eclipse]

Eclipse- not sure what you mean by mixed feelings. Do you find my crumb more likely to be scum or town?

It's powerful enough to swing both ways, IMO. Thus, the mixed feelings.

Do water roles even exist?

Yes, and I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one.

My Holy role - I choose one of the elements for the next phase. Originally thought it was a troll role, but it looks like it might be useful.

With Poly's flip. . .I need to think about a lot of things, and it's nearly midnight here. Until then, here's one more slice of eclipse's role pie:

Dark - Turns two people into neighbors for the rest of the game

I have stuff to do tomorrow, so I probably won't be back for another 20 hours, at least.

[MancerNecro]

I know I said I wouldn't come on until tomorrow but there are some things I want to add on.

This is what votecounts look like. There are a LOT of unknowns on the Elieson wagon, and I kind of feel like scum all jumped on Eli (if they weren't there already) in order to save Marth. Will look into things more closely in a bit.

From your list, scum should be hidden between BBM, Shin, Refa, Bellysaurus, you and me atm. Bellysaurus should not be scum from interactions. I know that I am not scum and I think that Shin is not scum because of his claim and his action. I think that scum is now between BBM, Refa and you. As I mentioned in my initial post, I have scum reads on all three of you.

I am unable to decide between the three of you who might be scum right now but I think that if only one of you are town, then the town is most likely to be SB or Refa. I suggest we lynch one of them and vig the other the next phase. After that, we can go for the 1v1 between Shin and BBM depending on SB's and Refa's flips.

Since Refa claimed Vengeful, we lynch SB this phase first.

If SB is town, we vig Refa. If SB is scum, we do a 1v1 between BBM and Shin next phase and win from there.

If Refa is town then both Shin and BBM are scum and we win by lynching and vigging them thereafter.

Between eclipse, Shin, Xinnidy, Bellysaurus and I, we should have enough to force the hammers on each phase for my plan.

##Unvote: BBM, ##Vote: SB

If you all don't believe me and want to lynch me then go ahead because honestly, I really am sick and tired of this game. I have a pretty strong idea of who the scum team are but no one wants to listen to anything being said and discussed and I am now a vanilla because you guys decided to make Xinnidy sig my neighbour (tyvm, btw!). I will just walk out of the game gracefully if you all want my lynch.

Are you seriously using "Shin targeted Xinny because they're friends"??? Shin is friends with almost everyone playing in this game. I need a better reason for town!Shin to target a random nullread than "they were friends", and it's an easy and provable role that gives good towncred. And as town, you want to use this ability to make mafia not able to kill someone they would want to kill N2 or N3. Can you honestly tell me that without Xinny's claim she'd be at all someone the mafia want to NK?

Honestly, if I roll doctor and I don't have a solid town read (which could be the case for Shin), I will just randomise my protection ability or target a friend or something on the first night in the hopes that the protection might be able to protect somebody.

Instead of asking me why I think Shin is town, can you answer the question and tell me why you think Shin is scummy instead of other reads you might have? I keep asking you to answer my question about what scum Shin would gain by targeting Xinnidy and how scum would benefit from the Omniguard role. That role is a town role in so many ways. As I have mentioned before, it also messes with the scum's own night kill (it keeps their target safe for all other nights other than the night the ability was used). If the almost permanent Omniguard were scum, scum would benefit more from not using the ability at all.

Regarding there being too many protection roles, remember that the Jailkeep and the Omniguard cannot be used simultaneously so there's a maximum of one protection role at a time (apart from Poly and my Co-Drive which is not really a very protective role at all). Also, the Jailkeep roleblocks the target as well and the Omniguard doesn't protect the target from any ability on the night it is used so both are really actually imperfect protection actions. Hence, I think that both can exist at the same time.

[charlie_]

Refa, is your vengekill compulsive?

[BBM]

Actually I've changed my mind and feel like Refa might be more likely to be scum off ~rolespec than SB. IAFAICS we don't have any investigation other than Cop so the Tracker claim seems legit, especially as they're two different elements. Still dunno about the vengeful thing but ugh I guess I can see Refa WIFOMing. 6/2 right now; a legit strategy might be to lynch Refa and have him vengekill SB if he's town? If he's scum then he'll probably vengekill Eclipse or Mancer. I feel pretty confident right now that at least 1/2 of Refa and SB are scum so it'll be 5/1 going into the night either way. Worst case it'll be like 4/2 and we'll know that the scumteam is like Beli/Shin?

@mancer- driver is a pretty good protective role and I've explained why, disregarding roles I find Shin scummy, like ten times. I don't have time atm to reiterate myself; go through most of my D2 and ED3. And if you're randomizing your protection target you're not doing it correctly I'm sorry. Also it's difficult to take your whining seriously right now because I know you're wrong about my alignment and there are several others who haven't used their role yet.

Shin needs to come back and be more specific about his role. What element is it? How many times can it be used? These are questions he's dodged all game.

@xinny- my role is the strongest role of the uncleared that town has right now. >_> It can help town in the unlikely scenario where Beli is scum. Nobody else's can, and that's why my role should be allowed to live.

Beli needs to get in here. Kind of frustrated that Eclipse didn't say who she thought was scum at all. >_>

Out for a few hours

[BBM]

@Mancer- yeah but my role is better than your's so you should be glad that there's a still a chance that I can survive to tonight to use it (albeit a small one from how it's looking atm)

@Xinny- The mafia aren't going to kill Shin if he's town because he's a potential mislynch and it'll be MYLO tomorrow if we mislynch. Vigging him tomorrow after I flip town is dumb too. If you lynch me and I flip town, you're guaranteed to survive the night, but town learns nothing about Shin's alignment. If you lynch Shin and he flips town, you're not guaranteed to survive the night (actually you kind of are because I'd effectively be saccing myself the following day if I killed you after saying I'd protect you) but you give me a chance to prove my role, or potentially try to use it as a hook to block the scum NK, or cop someone or whatever. You learn something about my alignment, or give me the chance to get scum, or something.

If you're REALLY ADAMANT about not lynching Shin, you should lynch SB. Cop is better tonight than Tracker is, and he's not confirmed town either.

Mancer, you were never going to be killed N1. Regardless of how vocal you were, you're too quick to jump to a suspicion on every little thing in the thread, and you're extremely difficult to read. Even after being super vocal, Refa was almost willing to lynch you today and SB said that he "would like to believe you were scum" even though he said you're probably not. And that's after your really favourable Marth interactions.

Are you seriously using "Shin targeted Xinny because they're friends"??? Shin is friends with almost everyone playing in this game. I need a better reason for town!Shin to target a random nullread than "they were friends", and it's an easy and provable role that gives good towncred. And as town, you want to use this ability to make mafia not able to kill someone they would want to kill N2 or N3. Can you honestly tell me that without Xinny's claim she'd be at all someone the mafia want to NK?

Also Co-Drivers + JK + perma-Omniguard + Gravedigger that could reproduce the latter two at least is way too much protection FMPOV.

forgot to do this

[Belisarius]

So first I'm going to start off by saying Mancer, grow up. Not only did the issue not pertain to you in the slightest, but you have a hilariously biased view of what occured. Stop disrespecting me.

I'm town water watcher. I don't think that is more useful than SB or BBMs, and BBMs would be the strongest so

##Select Wind

[MancerNecro]

I keep asking you to answer my question about what scum Shin would gain by targeting Xinnidy and how scum would benefit from the Omniguard role. That role is a town role in so many ways. As I have mentioned before, it also messes with the scum's own night kill (it keeps their target safe for all other nights other than the night the ability was used). If the almost permanent Omniguard were scum, scum would benefit more from not using the ability at all.

I'm asking you how scum would benefit from the way Shin used his role, if Shin were scum not asking you for your reads regarding Shin. Even if Shin is scum and cannot Omniguard scum, don't you think that scum would benefit more from idling the Omniguard ability than to use it?

Lynching Refa and making him vengeful kill SB too is a faster way of doing the PoE, really.

We can then vig and lynch BBM and Shin to essentially remove any and all potential scums from the game. After that only Bellysaurus and I will be left so we can just vig and lynch between Belly and I and town will win regardless.

[Refa]

The scum team exists between Shin, SB, BBM, Belisarius, and Mancer. If Shin is scum (which FMPOV is the most likely scenario and noone has refuted me on this except to say "but Refa, what about his role" which is obnoxious because you're wrong and ignoring my entire case on him just for that; there's no defense against stupidity), then BBM is clear and it'd be easy to PoE between SB, Beli, and Mancer (Mancer > SB > Beli in that case). If Shin is town, then I can't see anyone other than BBM/Belisarius being scum (because why would SB/Mancer dismiss a potential mislynch as scum at this point in the game).

Refa, is your vengekill compulsive?

I dunno, I've never bothered asking the mods. From the wording I'd assume so, but I should probably check it out regardless.

I'm asking you how scum would benefit from the way Shin used his role, if Shin were scum not asking you for your reads regarding Shin. Even if Shin is scum and cannot Omniguard scum, don't you think that scum would benefit more from idling the Omniguard ability than to use it?

Lynching Refa and making him vengeful kill SB too is a faster way of doing the PoE, really.

We can then vig and lynch BBM and Shin to essentially remove any and all potential scums from the game. After that only Bellysaurus and I will be left so we can just vig and lynch between Belly and I and town will win regardless.

No, because it gives him easy town cred as scum (presumably for someone he was never playing on killing in the first place).

Not really. If I mis...vengekill (?) and hit town, then tomorrow will be 3/2 (I mean the chances of that are virtually nil because I'm amazing but I guess it could happen maybe). It'd be far more beneficial to town to lynch someone (not necessarily between me/SB, I don't know how you created this 1v1 situation) and then use any results from the nightphase to better aid our kills for the next day.

You seem to be forgetting that scum does in fact have nightkills in your last scenario...

[Refa]

Also I forgot to do this. The advantage of a bad memory is that one enjoys several times the same good things for the first time.

##Select: Wind

[charlie_]

I feel like I should reread but actually trying to find scum for the first time in forever is hard.

Mancer pls get an actual case on me if you're going to vote me, and preferably one that sums up why I would set myself up to claim the same role as my scumbuddy from the moment I subbed in. You saying BBM+one of SB/Refa is probably scum then voting not BBM is also perplexing. Also imo the Public Tracker was public because of my role, but yeah.

Even though I think BBM is scummy his cases on Shin have made sense and you're completely ignoring them and calling him scum for not giving reasons which is stupid. Also cut the AtE out because it's not really fun to play with.

Xinny also makes sense for scum Omniguard target if they wanted to go that way because well, they weren't a likely nightkill. If Xin didn't have a completely ridiculous role most people would be nullreading them and with Everything Failing on her it'd be a pain for town to investigate her. It could also be Omniguard+Rolecop or something if you wanted to throw in role conspiracies too, even though I'm not putting much stock in that.

##Unvote

##Vote: Refa

I'm actually growing on this. The more I think about the vengeful claim, the weirder it seems to me. Like, I wrote it off as townie at first but since then Refa has kind of been in semi-coast mode, and I'm sort of wondering why he thought the vengeful thing was a good idea in the first place? Like, after FE6 Mafia he thought what I did with my oracle was a dumb play, but this is like... even worse because it wastes a lynch and can kill off a townie in the process. I think it's possible that scum!Refa could've made the claim for towncred and something he's less likely to do as town.

Looking back through his earlier content, his scumreads are... kind of sparse. He didn't really have any scumreads other than Rapier for a good chunk of day 1, which is kind of bad? Like, he prods at Shin a little bit and asks some questions but it doesn't feel like there's actually much there. He also has this kind of questionable habit of townreading people because they made "good" posts, rather than actually doing townie things (Marth, BBM) and doesn't really have a strong Marth read until he became a wagon (before then he just sort of responded to some of his posts but stayed as neutral as possible, not really giving a read on him. The reasons for him being town was mostly "gut" which is really weak.

He also stopped scumreading Shin at some point in Day 1 but didn't actually seem to look into who else to vote at first and then left for an empty unvote, then voting Eli having said almost nothing on him beforehand besides saying that BBM's case on him was sheepworthy and this feels like blatantly trying to save his buddy. Marth's side of the interactions are pretty horrible imo, on Day 1 he said literally nothing on Refa and when he finally gave a read on him its mostly waffles aside from saying the vengeful claim looked good and Marth also wanted to activate Refa's role which might be a thing.

Other minor things that worry me about Refa are that I don't think he actually would know what a Disabler is since he's never played with one iirc and the fact that Fire Bulletproof to counter Unlimited Dayvig works seems like something Prims would definitely do (and I can't remember the last time Prims hosted a game without a BPV scum or a Godfather for that matter.) Having both Bulletproof AND Vengeful tied to the same element also seems out of place considering all of the other claims in the game?

Speaking of that, going for the Tracker or Watcher is like, strictly better than the 1-shot Cop because A. results are harder to fake and the roles can be proven and B. there is probably a Godfather running around just like in every Prims game and the flipped scum wasn't it, meaning that the odds of actually catching scum with it is low and the tracker would pretty much get the same results considering everyone's roles are outed at this point?

I need to reread people who aren't Refa still, but I dunno how long that'll take.

[BBM]

okay WATCHER this changes everything

grrrrr I was thinking while I was out that Refa/Shin scumbuddies didn't make much sense, and I am now having serious second thoughts about Belisarius because Prims considers Watcher the strongest role in the game (and Cop the second strongest) and I'm therefore really unsure whether or not Prims would give town a Cop and a Watcher.

And I think it's safe to say that the odds of town having a Cop, a Tracker, AND a Watcher (and FMPOV especially since I can gravedig all of those roles) are very low so I am like 95% sure that one of SB/Beli is scum now.

[Belisarius]

Xinnidy - obvious town
eclipse - Marth counterclaim so town

Mancer - was townreading him D1/D2 but he also claimed his neighbors role was knight so why would marth publicly buddy then disable a player whose role was not active except to maybe give some town credit? still more likely to be town since mancer was also scumreading marth d1 but that doesnt make any sense to me

Shin - i dont see why the mafia would want to boulder the dayvig (they would have removed it immediately) and there was a good point about balancing between town roles. probably town.

Refa - dont like how he wanted to use his role D2 but the two people im poe scumreading told me that it wouldnt make sense to do that as scum, which makes sense but then again they could have been defending a scumbuddy. null/possible mafia

BBM - probably mafia. could be faking a cop claim since he would obviously know faction and the gravedigger role can be either faction, but would also be harder to substantiate gravedigger going forward. seemed to defend marth a lot d1 after the initial scumread. pushing for a shin lynch where it doesnt really make sense to me. i think shin just bouldered someone she thought wasnt likely to die n1. cop is more definitive than tracker though so id be more interested giving him a chance for results.

SB - probably mafia. Quote was scummy and SB has been pretty neutral. dont like how he is trying to discredit the players in elies d1 wagon, none of them except mancer were a part of the vote swing that got elie lynched, and we're mostly all townreading mancer atm. D2 claim was after eclipses so he could just be trying to take advantage of the inevitable Marth lynch for town cred. tracker could be a fakeclaim as he is also the only claimed night holy role so wouldn't have to do anything if he were scum.

##Vote SB

[BBM]

SB brings up some good points on Refa so I'm seriously leaning towards Beli/Refa scumteam atm.

Something interesting about Marth I just realized- he pushed Beli as his counterwagon even though Shin had more votes at the time so on one hand this could be like Marth not wanting to push his scumbuddy Shin or it could be Marth trying to give his buddy some towncred before he died >_>

[BBM]

@Beli- about Shin, you're assuming that he CAN even remove the boulder once he uses it.

[charlie_]

Beli: There's probably scum on the wagon. There practically has to be just based on the numbers. Why is it scummy for me to look at interactions between dead people? I crumbed my role hard D2 before Marth or eclipse claimed and pushed cleric hard so if I didn't want to prove it, what was the point in that? Also, I could say exactly the same thing about your Watcher claim and you didn't even push for it which seems weird considering watcher is a strong role.

I need to actually look at Beli's interactions again because my memory of them is kind of vague. I'm leaning Refa/BBM as the scumteam right now (and think the interactions between the two would make sense) but we'll see.

[Belisarius]

@Beli- about Shin, you're assuming that he CAN even remove the boulder once he uses it.

Why wouldn't he be able to? He would have to be wind or fire and since those are the roles we've voted in he could use it again. If he couldn't move the boulder, that would be a terrible role for both town and mafia.

Beli: There's probably scum on the wagon. There practically has to be just based on the numbers. Why is it scummy for me to look at interactions between dead people?

Also, I could say exactly the same thing about your Watcher claim and you didn't even push for it which seems weird considering watcher is a strong role.

You mentioned that it was the vote swing from Marth to Elie that you found scummy. I can't count out everyone on the wagon based on numbers like you say, but I was commenting on how I found the people to jump on the end of the bandwagon town.

Initially because I didn't want to be killed right away for having a decent role, and after that I don't really consider watcher stronger than an unlimited protected dayvig or stronger than the role I thought kirsche had (he was cop). It's the same reason I'm not advocating voting water today.

[Belisarius]

Something interesting about Marth I just realized- he pushed Beli as his counterwagon even though Shin had more votes at the time so on one hand this could be like Marth not wanting to push his scumbuddy Shin or it could be Marth trying to give his buddy some towncred before he died >_>

A bunch of people had mentioned I should be dayvigged, I thought he was trying to take advantage of that and I'm fairly certain I mentioned that in my last scumread of Marth.

[BBM]

SB do you really think that town has a Cop, a Tracker, and a Watcher?

[BBM]

and Shin hasn't said that he can remove the boulder so I'm pretty sure that the only way it can be done is to select Earth as the element.

[charlie_]

In a normal game I wouldn't think it was possible, but I'm not sure how much the element mechanic fucks with things.

[charlie_]

You mentioned that it was the vote swing from Marth to Elie that you found scummy. I can't count out everyone on the wagon based on numbers like you say, but I was commenting on how I found the people to jump on the end of the bandwagon town.

Initially because I didn't want to be killed right away for having a decent role, and after that I don't really consider watcher stronger than an unlimited protected dayvig or stronger than the role I thought kirsche had (he was cop). It's the same reason I'm not advocating voting water today.

I did. Why is this a problem when it's probably true? Most of the unknowns on the wagon came at the start of it, so...

I guess that's kind of fair, but why would you think that wind was a strong role in the first place? It feels weird that you would put your faith in kirsche rather than pushing your own role.

[Refa]

##Unvote

##Vote: Refa

I'm actually growing on this. The more I think about the vengeful claim, the weirder it seems to me. Like, I wrote it off as townie at first but since then Refa has kind of been in semi-coast mode, and I'm sort of wondering why he thought the vengeful thing was a good idea in the first place? Like, after FE6 Mafia he thought what I did with my oracle was a dumb play, but this is like... even worse because it wastes a lynch and can kill off a townie in the process. I think it's possible that scum!Refa could've made the claim for towncred and something he's less likely to do as town.

Looking back through his earlier content, his scumreads are... kind of sparse. He didn't really have any scumreads other than Rapier for a good chunk of day 1, which is kind of bad? Like, he prods at Shin a little bit and asks some questions but it doesn't feel like there's actually much there. He also has this kind of questionable habit of townreading people because they made "good" posts, rather than actually doing townie things (Marth, BBM) and doesn't really have a strong Marth read until he became a wagon (before then he just sort of responded to some of his posts but stayed as neutral as possible, not really giving a read on him. The reasons for him being town was mostly "gut" which is really weak.

He also stopped scumreading Shin at some point in Day 1 but didn't actually seem to look into who else to vote at first and then left for an empty unvote, then voting Eli having said almost nothing on him beforehand besides saying that BBM's case on him was sheepworthy and this feels like blatantly trying to save his buddy. Marth's side of the interactions are pretty horrible imo, on Day 1 he said literally nothing on Refa and when he finally gave a read on him its mostly waffles aside from saying the vengeful claim looked good and Marth also wanted to activate Refa's role which might be a thing.

Other minor things that worry me about Refa are that I don't think he actually would know what a Disabler is since he's never played with one iirc and the fact that Fire Bulletproof to counter Unlimited Dayvig works seems like something Prims would definitely do (and I can't remember the last time Prims hosted a game without a BPV scum or a Godfather for that matter.) Having both Bulletproof AND Vengeful tied to the same element also seems out of place considering all of the other claims in the game?

I don't know how I've been coasting at all (like yes, I've been outputting less content but that's more because I've been rather busy + earlier reasons). ;/ Anyways, you should know that I hate rolling killing roles as town and NEVER GETTING TO USE THEM so it's pretty obvious why I claimed vengeful as soon as possible. I didn't think you using your oracle in FE6 was dumb, I thought you using it on POLY was dumb. Basically the fact that you didn't think of the consequences of making someone who'd flake (sorry Poly) obvious town. Honestly, I probably WOULD claim vengeful as scum as well so I'm not going to argue against that point (I could say BUT I'M NOT SCUM but it wouldn't really solve anything).

I had scumreads on Shin, Randa/Neko, Elieson, and Rapier D1, so I don't know what you're going on about. Yeah, perhaps I townread people a little too easily early on, but that helps me to narrow down potential scum (because really, there are way too many people on D1 for me to analyze all of them) and is a totally legit way of playing. Additionally, I had more reasons for townreading Marth than a gut read (that was just one part of it). His later reads post read as townier to me and some of the actions he did (such as repeatedly casing kirsche out of the gate) didn't make sense to me as scum. I made the empty unvote not because I ran out of scumreads, but because I was personally frustrated with Rapier's play and needed to evaluate if I legitimately thought he was scummier than Elieson/Shin or if I was just biased. Also you can't really say "Refa was blatantly trying to save his buddy D1" and ignore the fact that I made no active effort to stop/enable the lynch of Marthipan D2 (do you really think I'd be that apathetic to the lynch of a scumbuddy)?

Uh, Mancer said his role had been disabled lol (seriously, the name speaks for itself lol). I don't really understand how my role is supposed to counter Xinny's nor why I would ever claim BPV as scum (especially since it in no way made me look townier or less viable of a lynch); the whole purpose of my fullclaim was because I thought I was going to get lynched anyways so there was no point in hiding any part of my role.

[Belisarius]

I did. Why is this a problem when it's probably true? Most of the unknowns on the wagon came at the start of it, so...

I guess that's kind of fair, but why would you think that wind was a strong role in the first place? It feels weird that you would put your faith in kirsche rather than pushing your own role.

You said "I kind of feel like scum all jumped on Eli (if they weren't there already) in order to save Marth." I interpreted that to mean the vote swing and I said "dont like how he is trying to discredit the players in elies d1 wagon, none of them except mancer were a part of the vote swing that got elie lynched, and we're mostly all townreading mancer atm." The people who had the chance to save Marth in that situation (switched votes from Marth to Elie in the 24 hours before the lynch) are people that are confirmed town or Mancer, who is probably town. I slightly misremembered your comment but I was referring to the vote switches from Elie to Marth, which is what I saw you as referring to.

D1 kirsche scumreading eclipse. N1/D2 its revealed kirsche tracked eclipse. D2 kirsche no longer scumreading eclipse. Clearly had an investigative role of some kind and there was no point outing my own at the time or making an argument on why we should vote water.

[Refa]

Don't really get BBM's spec about Tracker/Watcher/Cop. The conclusion that one of SB/Beli is scum makes sense FHPOV (considering his claimed role) but considering how the elements work it'd be likely that only one could be used every night (which doesn't seem particularly overpowered to me).

Beli, it would be very easy for Marthipan to idle his disable and for Mancer to claim disabled. It's something that bothers me personally because Mancer seems like a very weird choice for him to have disabled. Dude, if Xinny died, Shin would be turbolynched the next day for being a confirmed liar so there's no way in hell he'd kill her as scum. Him scumreading BBM kind of throws me off (I mentioned earlier that if Shin flipped town, Beli/BBM scumteam would be the only logical conclusion), but if anything that just makes me more confident in my Shin scumread. When we are tired, we are attacked by ideas we conquered long ago.

[Shin]

Yo, a thunderstorm killed my home internet and I've just got to uni. I'll do stuff tomorrow morning.