Fire Emblem Heroes: The Mafia Gacha: The Game Thread

[Sunwoo]

Just now, Mackc2 said:

Wait before you go can you confirm if junk is supposed to be on the first votal of not?

There were no errors in the most recent votals.

[Mackc2]

Thank you 

[Junk]

okay like skimming through d2, the first thing I notice immediately is that a lot of the refa cases seem to just come down to difference in opinion in that he thought the townslip was legit (which I disagreed with personally but that's okay) while others disagree that it wasn't 100% legit and I don't really see how this makes him scum? It's bad play but not necessarily scum play, I don't really see it.

 I have no idea wtf is going on with the persuade though, just not really sure what to think? there a lot of possibilities in my head right now

  green poet stuff i'm not really understanding from a first read i'll reread her D1 later which might help me better understand refa's GP case and her defense

@Mackc2 No as in it literally happened just a few minutes ago, not at the start of day 2 so boron/sunwoo didn't mess up and that's why the phase pause happened I think

Still think Marth is scum, feel even worse now due to the flip and no opinion before "deadline" and the justification makes no sense since it pretty much says we'd have to assume that he somehow felt the same about michelarr as the rest of us so therefore he didn't have to give his opinion it which is ??? because i don't see why all of us would assume that.

I'd vote him but uh... yeah

 

 

[Junk]

oh hey BBM made the possibilities with regards to the persuade I was thinking of clearer

[Refa]

FTR, this persuade implies that Faerie Knight is town.  As scum, he could have easily voted me and then I'd "randomly" get hammered five minutes later.

[BBM]

I have to read a paper in the next fifteen minutes and then go to class but when I'm back in a few hours I'm going to look more at the Refa wagon bc I think it's unlikely that everyone on it is town. gut says GP because I don't think scum Proto would try to put out BAD VIBES on me when my lynch is so unlikely (at this point, anyways) and I don't think the mods would have a second newbscum. bartozio's vote is definitely the worst in a vacuum though

[Mackc2]

I was sure that he was scum because of his votes however this persuade has confused me greatly (unless that was it's intention) because if it's a town persuade they could have just left it a bit longer and if it was a Mafia persuade then they should have waited till he was one out, so the only reason I can see mafia using it early is they want to draw attention from refa or they messed up (hell it may even be refa but that would be a suicidal bluff to play) 

[Refa]

3 minutes ago, BBM said:

I have to read a paper in the next fifteen minutes and then go to class but when I'm back in a few hours I'm going to look more at the Refa wagon bc I think it's unlikely that everyone on it is town. gut says GP because I don't think scum Proto would try to put out BAD VIBES on me when my lynch is so unlikely (at this point, anyways) and I don't think the mods would have a second newbscum. bartozio's vote is definitely the worst in a vacuum though

WRT my wagon, I'd say Proto is likely to be town because his case on me was more that he was analyzing what happened and came to the conclusion that I was scum instead of being like "you're scum and here's why".  GP's read on me doesn't change mine on her, Bartozio's vote is an easy sheep like you said which bothers me, and Mackc2's doesn't bother me because it reads as his own reasoning over a bandwagon vote.

[BBM]

the other reason why I think a purposely fake townslip is so implausible is because michelaar didn't just randomly say "oh hey I just realized there wasn't a N0" out of context, it was the end result of a sequence of posts back-and-forth between michelaar and Elie that started with michelaar speculating role reasons for why mack was voting elieson without wanting to include his reasoning in-thread. you guys really think michelaar was slick enough to purposely create that situation???

[Refa]

21 minutes ago, Junk said:

Still think Marth is scum, feel even worse now due to the flip and no opinion before "deadline" and the justification makes no sense since it pretty much says we'd have to assume that he somehow felt the same about michelarr as the rest of us so therefore he didn't have to give his opinion it which is ??? because i don't see why all of us would assume that.

I'd vote him but uh... yeah

Do you think he'd intentionally ignore his scumbuddies as mafia though?  Like, I've been scum with Marth before and he hardbusses if one of his buddies gets even a few votes.

[Faerie Knight]

1 hour ago, Refa said:

I thought about that, but you were way too outspoken about your vote and having no other cases.  This would make you look bad regardless of whether or not scum got lynched, so I'm not seeing any scum intent there.

I legitimately don't get what you're saying with your second point.

It's fencesitting with him because his town reads on them were so weak that he could have easily changed them at any time.  Yeah, he could have changed his vote to Pika but it would have looked bad (unless all three of them are scum, of course).

Fair.

About my vote? I'm saying that it seems you're saying my vote makes sense in the context of my play, what about the reasoning? It's just a strange thing to say about it tbh, doesn't the reasoning/basis of a vote matter more than if it fits in the context of someone's play, whatever exactly that means?

True. But why? He gave his town read before Pika came back and there still were people scumreading him, why would it have looked bad for Mack to vote along with them then? Even then, his town read on Pika was even shallower, I don't see why scum wouldn't have gone along with that wagon and tried to get it ahead of the one on what was almost certainly their strongest role.

[Faerie Knight]

1 hour ago, BBM said:

I have to read a paper in the next fifteen minutes and then go to class but when I'm back in a few hours I'm going to look more at the Refa wagon bc I think it's unlikely that everyone on it is town. gut says GP because I don't think scum Proto would try to put out BAD VIBES on me when my lynch is so unlikely (at this point, anyways) and I don't think the mods would have a second newbscum. bartozio's vote is definitely the worst in a vacuum though

Spoiler

did you just
legitimately imply the rand would be rigged

[Mackc2]

I didn't vote for pika same reason you did not change your vote FK I was convinced the person I was voting was worse and I was waiting for pika to respond before I made my decision sadly he responded while I was asleep 

[Kriemhild]

I was actually in the middle of typing up a post about Refa-Michelaar interactions before heading out to dinner, and now I come back to an instantaneous persuasion..

I'm not claiming that the "townslip" was definitely faked; it certainly may have been a genuine mistake. However, the fact is that Scum!Michelaar made a post that Refa perceived to be a townslip while declaring it as such. Just because it could have been a genuine mistake doesn't mean there's nothing more to discuss. Even if it was a mistake, Michelaar had scumbuddies who witnessed this mistake. This would have been a good opportunity for one of their scumbuddies to step in and point out that Scum Michelaar would likely have known that there was no N0.

But it was Refa who first drew attention to it, and he went as far as declare it as a townslip. Nobody even quoted or referenced that post before Refa did, which was over 9 hours later. Nobody even bothered to defend Michelaar during this period except BBM. This leads to several possibilities:

• Refa is Town, and Michelaar's scumbuddies were AFK during those nine hours. It just so happened that Refa saw the post before the scumbuddies did.
• Refa is Town, and Michelaar's scumbuddies were hoping for a Townie to try pointing out Michelaar's "townslip". They waited a full nine hours before their patience paid off and Refa fulfilled their objective.
• Refa is Town, and Michelaar's scumbuddies didn't bother trying to defend Michelaar during these 9 hours. Perhaps they did bus Michelaar, or they simply thought it wouldn't be worth the risk to try saving Michelaar, so they didn't seek out reasons to defend Michelaar, or at least, they didn't present such reasons.
• Refa is Scum, and resorted to pointing out Michelaar's "townslip" because he felt it looked like a townslip. Regardless of whether it was originally a genuine mistake or a staged act, Refa would have been fully conscious that their declaration may lead players to unvote Michelaar. Maybe Refa hoped a Townie would point it out first, or maybe Refa was resolved to point it out regardless.

I don't think it's necessarily productive to examine these possibilities in detail, but what really baffles me is how Refa is dismissing all of it. Refa's first D2 post conveys confidence that the townslip could not have been faked ("no way in hell") in the third sentence of the post, and the rest of it contains no mention or reference to it at all. Even though Insomniac Poet explicitly attacked him for him with a pseudovote, with her entire posted reasoning based on the "townslip". He voted for Elieson, with no reference to the actual townslip incident in which Michelaar was replying to Elieson; was it two scumbuddies discussing about Mack when one of them "townslipped" and the other proceeded to completely ignore the townslip? But no, Refa proceeded to ignore it, confidently declared the townslip as being fake, and dismissed it as if it were completely irrelevant to any productive discussion. The fact that Refa declared the townslip in D1 isn't what bothered me the most, it was his confident and dismissive attitude about it that disturbs me.

Persuasion discussion coming in my next post. You guys know how much I love role analysis.

[Bluedoom]

I've got exams today, I'll post after 12 hours.

[Mackc2]

6 minutes ago, Magnificence Incarnate said:

I've got exams today, I'll post after 12 hours.

Yeah nice excuse (I'm kidding good luck) 

[Kriemhild]

Oh, right, I wanted to respond to @BBM too. Yes, given the situation, I think, if I were scum in your place, I would have also voted for Michelaar even if it meant bussing my scumbuddy. Given the discussions about Pika not voting his counterwagon, it would be dangerous if I persisted in voting for Pika. At least, as far as I could tell based on your stances at that point, I think it would have been quite noticeable if you chose not to switch to Michelaar. Maybe I was exaggerating when I said it was "definitely obvious", but my point was that this decision is not alignment indicative. At least, to me, it's not.

[Mackc2]

Hey @Oboro-Garasu what are your thoughts on this persuasion 

[BBM]

Proto if you're going to go through all the possibilities, you should also look at the possibility that it was indeed just a derp by Michelaar? I think that that's the most plausible explanation- Michelaar made a derp and nobody on the scumteam considered that it could be seen as a townslip. when you're not reading someone's posts to try and figure out. also, the logic that Refa is scum for being too confident that it wasn't purposely faked implies that you think that it still was actually faked

also up until after Pika's claim I had consistently been pushing Pika and had him as a scumread and consistently had Michelaar as a townread. There was no reason for me to post the stance that Pika's late D1 actions didn't make sense to be scum; nobody else had. anyways gonna stop bothering with this if you are of the opinion that lynching your scumbuddies on D1 is good

anyways gonna go back and read through GP's and Bartozio's posts but as I was thinking about it more I'm not sure someone is definitely scum on the Refa wagon. The votes all seem to be a bit different.

@FK- I can assure you that (almost) every host rigs role/alignment randomizations a little to make sure it's reasonably fair. The game isn't fun for anybody if the experience level of one team is way higher than another. At one point people used to specifically even allow people to ask for certain roles/alignments in private at the start of the game, although I don't think anybody does that anymore.

[Kriemhild]

2 hours ago, BBM said:

inclined to believe Junko, in which case the options are:

1. scum persuader miscounted the votes and fucked up trying to quickhammer Refa

2. one of the people who voted Refa is also a town persuader and wanted an extra vote on Refa

3. Refa is scum trying to make town think that #1 is the case. I think this is highly unlikely but since 4 of you also think that Refa engineered a fake townslip I'm including it to be complete.

I'm not sure why you're overlooking what I think is the most likely possibility: that the persuador simply cannot use their ability to generate a vote on a player that's at L-1, thus triggering a hammer. Even without this persuasion incident, I don't believe that the mods would have allowed the persuader to cause hammers. I'm not trying to get into modmeta, but I think it's generally understood that abilities that can decisively and anonymously cause a lynch without warning, thus violating the integrity of the Town's greatest and most reliable weapon for eliminating Mafia, would be deemed unacceptable in a game that doesn't warn the players of unfair crap like this. Given that this is a persuasion that activated in the middle of the day phase (i.e. an instant effect, as opposed to an action from the previous night), I am pretty sure such an ability would not be allowed to trigger a hammer.

Persuader can be a very powerful role, such as making it easier to overwhelm the Town during lategame where a single extra vote can have a huge impact, or during scenarios in which two or more players are being voted as popular lynches and so the persuasion can tip the scales slightly over to one side or possibly break ties. However, at this point with less than 6 hours after the start of D2, with 11 players alive, and no other popular lynch candidate besides Refa, I fail to see how the persuasion could have had a "tangible" impact on the lynch as far. It would be stupid for a Townie to hammer Refa now and deprive us of further discussion, and likewise scum wouldn't draw attention to such a terrible hammer. Sure, now it takes only 5 votes to lynch Refa, and Junko is voteless, but we'd then treat L-1 as being 4 votes (not counting Junko's) and continue playing normally otherwise. 4 votes instead of 5 might be a big deal if Refa is on the brink of a tie, but nothing in these first few hours indicates that the D2 lynch would eventually boil down to such a situation.

So basically, what I think is that the purpose of the persuasion was either (a) a newb player (of either alignment) misusing the persuasion without thoroughly considering the impact it would have in this situation, or (b) done with the purpose of having a psychological impact as opposed to a mechanical one. For option (b), one possibility is that Refa is scum and that a scum Persuader set the vote to pressure players into thinking the Mafia wants Refa lynched, causing them to drop their Refa cases. But at the same time, this could be a WIFOM, in that players would consider this possibility and persist in lynching Refa while he's actually Town.

Either way, however, I don't want to engage in a WIFOM about the persuasion, so I personally would treat this persuasion as being non-alignment-indicative of Refa, while obviously being carefully conscious of its slight mechanical impact (L-1 is now four non-Junko votes, etc).

tl;dr -  I wrote a wall of text to express that I find the persuasion to be non-alignment-indicative and will proceed to ignore it unless I'm convinced otherwise. What am I doing with my life?

[Bluedoom]

I lied but I did a quick skim and my vote is best here: ##Vote: Bartozio

 

Usually absent from the game unless the opportunity for wagonhopping presents itself. The D2 vote isn't any different. Who else do you think is scum?

[Kriemhild]

13 minutes ago, BBM said:

Proto if you're going to go through all the possibilities, you should also look at the possibility that it was indeed just a derp by Michelaar? I think that that's the most plausible explanation- Michelaar made a derp and nobody on the scumteam considered that it could be seen as a townslip. when you're not reading someone's posts to try and figure out. also, the logic that Refa is scum for being too confident that it wasn't purposely faked implies that you think that it still was actually faked

I don't know if I wrote it poorly or if you read it poorly but uh, my points aren't based on the assumption that it was faked. Even if it was a genuine mistake, the fact is that nobody else during these nine hours (especially noting the players who were posting, like Elieson, FK, Marth, Junk, etc) pointed out the townslip or referenced it in any way (not even Elieson, who the townslip post was replying to), while nobody was defending Michelaar either except you. Up until Refa popped up with the townslip declaration.

Does this actually mean anything? Probably, probably not. But is it reasonable to consider this to be definitely irrelevant and unproductive in discussions about Refa's alignment? I think not.

[Bluedoom]

I've only done a skim but I do not understand the cases on Refa. Like I do not see why Refa picking up a towntell from scum and pushing it is supposed to be scummy? Town can be wrong too, and the whole "Engineering the fake towntell" seems contrived IMO.

 

Inclined to think the mysterious persuader is scum-sided because reasons  but this gives me a bad feeling about numbers.

[Bluedoom]

Ok, NOW I'm really leaving.

[Kriemhild]

The fact that Refa confidently dismissed it as definitely a mistake, and proceeded as if this alone completely invalidates Insomniac Poet's entire case on him (well, the only thing in the post that might be related to the case was the confident and dismissive attitude about the townslip being a mistake and irrelevant) is what bothers me.

I may not be the best at expressing my thoughts, but I really am trying to avoid assumptions, but my issues are more with Refa's behavior towards these issues, than on the actual townslip incident itself.