Voting Gauntlet: Winter Festival vs. New Year’s!

[a bear]

3 minutes ago, Zangetsu said:

But the difference is I'm getting reasonable response & explanations.

That comparison completely went over my head. I can understand some of it, but I don't like baseball or sports in general. Unless I'm actually participating.

fair enough, although I suppose it's just early for salt

the sports scoring comparison is a little off since the actual game can be tense and emotional (or not) regardless of the score; VGs are just tallies, so it's more like an election or... I dunno, stormtracking or something where you basically just see predictions and results

[Ice Dragon]

19 minutes ago, Rezzy said:

To use an analogy, in baseball, the best games to watch are with a lot of scoring and a few comebacks on both sides.  Watch almost any Cubs-Cardinals game and you'll see it happens a lot with them for some reason.  A game that sits at 0-0 is often boring, and blowouts can be fun, but get a bit uninteresting if it's 10-0 after the second inning.

Now if a team is down 5-0 and comes back, that's interesting, but they earned it.  If being ahead by 3 or more runs suddenly caused the losing team to have all runs worth 3, it would cheapen the value of the comeback, and make it so the luckiest, not the best team won.

@Zangetsu

The analogy doesn't quite do this whole situation justice, though.

The thing is that if this Robin v. Lissa match occurred without the multiplier mechanic at all, it would have been just as exciting as Ephraim v. Chrom. Ephraim v. Chrom was decided by a margin of 0.8%, and this match is currently at a margin of approximately 1.0%.

The difference is that with Ephraim v. Chrom, there was virtually no cost to spending flags because all flags were worth the same number of cumulative points regardless of when they were spent, and this results in a competitive back-and-forth where the teams trade off being in the lead. In the current system, flags spent outside of multiplier hours result in a loss of cumulative points, meaning there is little reason to spend flags when the match is deadlocked, and this results instead in a boring and stagnant match where neither side has any real incentive to spend their flags to try to take the lead from the other team.

 

 

Basically, the multiplier system made it less likely impossible to have a tense match for the entire duration of the match, but made the second-to-last hour almost guaranteed to be tense as players hope that a team does or doesn't overshoot.

Edited January 3, 2018 by Ice Dragon
Correcting myself.

[Ginko]

It's kinda late to post now. Here is my friend code #7621535587. If the lobster lose, I will join Azura team. My lead is the lobster's son. Feel free to use him tank physical damage. 

 

Edited January 24, 2018 by Ginko
Correct the friend code and remove attachment

[ZeManaphy]

Poor Robin... I guess it’s off to Team Azura. Though I haven’t seen a multiplier last round in some time.

[Zangetsu]

4 minutes ago, a bear said:

fair enough, although I suppose it's just early for salt

That sounds about right

6 minutes ago, a bear said:

the sports scoring comparison is a little off since the actual game can be tense and emotional (or not) regardless of the score; VGs are just tallies, so it's more like an election or... I dunno, stormtracking or something where you basically just see predictions and results

That also sounds about right except now I have a better comparison to grasp on. Thanks for that.

4 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

@Zangetsu

The analogy doesn't quite do this whole situation justice, though.

The thing is that if this Robin v. Lissa match occurred without the multiplier mechanic at all, it would have been just as exciting as Ephraim v. Chrom. Ephraim v. Chrom was decided by a margin of 0.8%, and this match is currently at a margin of approximately 1.0%.

The difference is that with Ephraim v. Chrom, there was virtually no cost to spending flags because all flags were worth the same number of cumulative points regardless of when they were spent, and this results in a competitive back-and-forth where the teams trade off being in the lead. In the current system, flags spent outside of multiplier hours result in a loss of cumulative points, meaning there is little reason to spend flags when the match is deadlocked, and this results instead in a boring and stagnant match where neither side has any real incentive to spend their flags to try to take the lead from the other team.

 

 

Basically, the multiplier system made it less likely to have a tense match for the entire duration of the match, but made the second-to-last hour almost guaranteed to be tense as players hope that a team does or doesn't overshoot.

But this sounds like one of the closest ways we can a close match. How else can we get that besides getting rid of the multiplier?

[Poimagic]

Curious, what is the predicted outcome of Takumi vs Ryoma? It seems like they are in same hell right now.

[Jingle Jangle]

It's neck and neck between Tharja and Chrom, I should have used more flags earlier in the day. Please win.

[Rezzy]

3 minutes ago, Poimagic said:

Curious, what is the predicted outcome of Takumi vs Ryoma? It seems like they are in same hell right now.

It could go either way.  If both teams spend the same number of flags as last hour, Takumi will win, but Ryoma has a larger base that might not have rallied as hard as they could have last hour

[Ice Dragon]

Well, that was a nice way to end Round 1.

I got @LordFrigid's Tana, and she proceeded to kill Reinhardt, Spring Chrom with a Sing from Azura, and Galeforced though Wrys all in a single turn.

 

Shout-outs to @LordFrigid's Jeorge for getting my colorless quest finished, @KongDude's Laslow, and @Roflolxp54's (I think that "Robert" is you, at least) Lyn, who were the three friends I ended up getting on my runs. Teleporting people across water and chasms with Guidance is fun.

 

5 minutes ago, Rezzy said:

It could go either way.  If both teams spend the same number of flags as last hour, Takumi will win, but Ryoma has a larger base that might not have rallied as hard as they could have last hour

Some of Team Takumi's points in the previous hour were from players who didn't complete their multiplier runs in the hour before, so Takumi's rally isn't actually as large as it might seem to be from just the previous hour's gains.

 

Edited January 3, 2018 by Ice Dragon

[Poimagic]

Just now, Rezzy said:

It could go either way.  If both teams spend the same number of flags as last hour, Takumi will win, but Ryoma has a larger base that might not have rallied as hard as they could have last hour

God, I have never felt so on the edge of my seat before. Hopefully Takumi wins. If he doesn't, it's okay. I have options. Robin, Chrom, Camilla, or Azura.

[Roflolxp54]

1 minute ago, Ice Dragon said:

Shout-outs to @LordFrigid's Jeorge for getting my colorless quest finished, @KongDude's Laslow, and @Roflolxp54's (I think that "Robert" is you, at least) Lyn, who were the three friends I ended up getting on my runs. Teleporting people across water and chasms with Guidance is fun.

Yeah, if the Lyn you're talking about has Brazen Atk/Spd 3 and Escape Route 3, then that's certainly me!

[Fire Emblem Fan]

Who won Chrom vs. Tharja?

[Ice Dragon]

4 minutes ago, Roflolxp54 said:

Yeah, if the Lyn you're talking about has Brazen Atk/Spd 3 and Escape Route 3, then that's certainly me!

Yep, that's the one.

 

4 minutes ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

Who won Chrom vs. Tharja?

Without even looking, Tharja. Chrom had a zero chance going into the last hour.

Edited January 3, 2018 by Ice Dragon

[Zeo]

Welp. 

- Robin vs Lissa is pretty much a lock.

- Chrom's got 0 chance of beating Tharja so nothing interesting there.

- Azura's pretty much got this. Camilla's army would have to really do something crazy.

- Lobster vs Pinapple is a tossup. Anyone could win at this point.

Funny, though it was one of the more boring rounds, Takumi vs Ryoma turns out to be the most interesting match at the very end.

 

[Rezzy]

6 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

Some of Team Takumi's points in the previous hour were from players who didn't complete their multiplier runs in the hour before, so Takumi's rally isn't actually as large as it might seem to be from just the previous hour's gains.

 

True, but Takumi is projected to win by 10M points if the last hour votes were the same.  If it was closer, I'd say Ryoma was the clear favorite, but with that gap I'd say it's still a toss-up, with it leaning towards Ryoma.

@DarkLordIvy I may have gotten your Ike a few times.  I got several Ikes the last couple days, but didn't think to associate him with you.

Edited January 3, 2018 by Rezzy

[Ice Dragon]

5 minutes ago, Rezzy said:

True, but Takumi is projected to win by 10M points if the last hour votes were the same.  If it was closer, I'd say Ryoma was the clear favorite, but with that gap I'd say it's still a toss-up, with it leaning towards Ryoma.

It's still definitely a toss-up even on my books. The 10 million difference is coincidentally roughly the size of Takumi's expected spill-over from the previous hour.

Edited January 3, 2018 by Ice Dragon

[EricaofRenais]

Well I will either go Ryoma or Azura if Ryoma loses, since it would take a divine intervention for Chrom to win.  I just don't want Tharja or Camilla to win another Gauntlet, anyone else is fine.

[Ice Dragon]

Reward feathers are now in.

[Anacybele]

RYOMA WON! YAAAAY!!

@Thor Odinson We finally got what we should've gotten vs Soren! :D

Edited January 3, 2018 by Anacybele

[Rezzy]

Looks like Ryoma won.  Got Rank 19 on Team Takumi, which I think is the highest I've ever gotten.  Nice to have a Gauntlet while I'm on vacation.

[HK Motendra]

LOBSTER LORD TRIUMPHS

[Zangetsu]

WOHOO! We beated the most popular character in Gauntlet!

[Johann]

Chrom lost but I got 2,500 feathers with a rank of 998, and 500 flags left over, so that'll do

edit: Moving to Team Ryoma: 3589968470

Edited January 3, 2018 by Johann

[Jingle Jangle]

Nice another victory for Tharja, moving on to round 2.

[Poimagic]

*sigh* Now I see the people on Team Ryoma rub there victory in my face. Oh well. What about the other teams? How did they do?