We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[Makaze]

going to sleep before I come up with any more reasons to doubt myself

[Snike]

I don't see Omega as scum, despite his consistently throwing shade at me for rolespeculating I don't like latter but I think his other stuff and scumhunting is just laser-sighted and not in the suspicious kind of way.

Just going to check something:

On 4/12/2018 at 7:00 PM, Iris said:

Day 1.Final Vote Count
Bartozio (10): Jaybee, WeaponsofMassConstruction, BBM, Zkirsche, athena57, Nightmare, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy, Fable, Fenrir, Refa
athena_57 (4): , Shinori, eclipse, Eurykins
Magnificence Incarnate (3): Walrein, vi-astra, Bartozio
zeus_112 (2): Bibbon, Fable
Zkirsche (1): Junk
Junk (1): Magnificence Incarnate
Shinori (1): Elieson
Bibbon (1): zeus_112

Not Voting: Eärendil

Updated eod1 votals; Now, let's color them according to my scum PoE from before (the non mack as scum one) and with walrein moved to townie.

On 4/12/2018 at 7:00 PM, Iris said:

Day 1.Final Vote Count
Bartozio (10): Jaybee, WeaponsofMassConstruction, BBM, Zkirsche, athena57, Nightmare, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy, Fable, Fenrir, Refa
athena_57 (4): , Shinori, eclipse, Eurykins
Magnificence Incarnate (3): Walrein, vi-astra, Bartozio
zeus_112 (2): Bibbon, Fable
Zkirsche (1): Junk
Junk (1): Magnificence Incarnate
Shinori (1): Elieson
Bibbon (1): zeus_112

Not Voting: Eärendil

I think this could make a lot of sense w/ 3 scum on the wagon. I also think that if earendil was scum in this scenario he would've been subbed out before d2.

Double scum networker is stupid. Athena interactions make him look a lot cleaner. And Shinori was chainsawing for kirsche on both bbm and athena, so I'm probably an idiot for prematurely clearing the jailkeeper-lover.

If there's two members of scumteam left, I think it''s Arcanite/Kirsche. If three, add Gaius there I guess.

Weapons/Arcanite is scum regardless IMO.

I'm going to go to bed too because I have schoolwork to do later.

[Kaoz]

12 hours ago, Makaze said:

Honestly I just can't imagine why Shinori and Jaybee would actively avoid a Kirsche alternative and go for eclipse in this situation. I had a case but they know who is Mafia because they are Mafia so I don't understand the reasoning in intentionally trying to push for scum/scum wagons, or having a real preference for eclipse in this situation.

It seems like you've changed your mind already, but the way I read it, JB went after eclipse because that wagon was the one gaining momentum at the time and the mafia might have figured it would've been easier to deflect the lynch onto a third person than trying to change a direct confrontation a number of people already seemed to have made up their mind about. And Shinori may have missed the timing for switching to Kirsche while trying to not associate himself with the lynch.

I actually don't have much to add outside of that, still cool with lynching Gaius or Arcanine, not particularly sold on any other cases from what I saw. The bookie claim doesn't outweigh my concerns about Gaius from yesterday and I dislike how he handled himself in the past 24 hours in general. If we get some clarification on how the bookie works exactly (which I believe we don't know outside of speculation?) and if it's predicting the lynch to get a vig at night (i.e. easily doable as long as we don't have a chaotic lynch), it may be worth considering doing a setup and vig one of the nulls, but that's about it from my perspective.

[Alette]

On 4/11/2018 at 4:02 PM, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

It's a common scum tactic to feign disagreement yet steer towards the same result. That combined with the fact that you backed off so easily made you suspicious to me.

I figured that if it was an error, the hosts would just clarify. Since they didn't, it was probably part of the game. I remember there being a role like Persuader that takes away people's votes, so I was wondering if that was related.

At this point, I'm inclined to believe zeus is just Town but confused. He doesn't have much direction in his posts, and he's mostly just agreeing with people critiquing his play instead of trying to defend himself from eclipse and others. Even if he does flip scum, we won't really get an idea of who could be related to him; so far, only Bibbon (and me) have had second thoughts about lynching him. Still, he's probably the best candidate for a lynch, since I'm getting the feeling that even if we push him on later days we won't get much more than what we have right now.

People said Bartozio's role PM thing is suspicious, but he also went out of his way to tell us not to visit him at night. That's a pretty risky bluff for scum. Also, other than FoSing me, he hasn't really done anything else. I don't have much to say about his alignment, but lynching him would resolve the role problem.

I'm going to give Athena the benefit of the doubt and say he's probably not a good lynch target yet. I want to see more movements from him first.

Weapons  has actively replied to people's questions with short and unhelpful answers several times, which suggests to me that he has nothing to lose.

Shinori seems the most Town to me, and I think eclipse is confirmed Mayor too? So those would be strongest Town. Everyone else is still pending for me.

@Makaze This is a post from Satsuma that is alarming considering Shinori's flip

[Alette]

##Vote: SatsumaSoySoy + Snike

[SullyMcGully]

7 hours ago, Makaze said:

thanks

@SullyMcGully

I'd like your full role claim as well?

No. I already half-claimed. I'm not gonna full claim. Why do you ask?

7 hours ago, SatsumaFSoysoy said:

Posting walls that don't even belong to me is hard.

Overall, Snike thinks Mack's responses to our theory read as someone being angry at being called out.

Mack completely flipped on his Town read on Kirsche from yesterday and earlier today, half-based on what we did and only after we came up with the theory, which reeks of OMGUS. Mack also forgot that we switched our vote to Kirsche after Junk's fake claim, as we bought into the fakeclaim somewhat and wanted to see if the role was provable.

The second point does not accurately reflect what was going on Day 1; Mack probably glossed over it.

This sounds rather angry. Mack flip-flopped again on Kirsche, since he defended Kirsche early Day 3, but is now suddenly going back to his N1 read.

Snike thinks this could be a smear on Kaoz to create doubt about Kaoz being confirmed.

This argument is wrong, because

A) is only valid if scum thought Mack was WIFOMing his night action, but there was no indication of that.

B) We already publicly claimed we got the item, so that can't happen. We would still end up getting associated with Shinori if he fake claimed Town Inventor.

Snike thinks Mack isn't even bothering to properly consider our arguments based on the tone of this post; he had already written us off.

Nah, I don't think Mack's interactions are scummy anymore. It's just Mack being Mack! I know Mack pretty well. And his posting has managed to satisfy my questions with his slot. Not to mention Makaze has raised a few good points in his favor.

6 hours ago, Refa said:

The way you're pushing Mackc2 feels like a scum push to me.  Feels like you're reaching to scumread him when the much simpler answer (Mackc2 is town) evades you.

Jaybee waffled on Junk hard IIRC.  I don't think he's the type of player who intends to scumread two of his buddies.

Sort of agree? I quoted this when I saw it, but Snoyke's later posts caused me to doubt that.

Sorry I don't have time for a more substantial read. 

##Vote: Lord Gaius

I'd rather lynch here than lynch Arcanite. The amount of effort Arcanite is putting into rereading seems like something he wouldn't do as scum. Maybe as an ITP, though.

Also, couldn't Snoyke be an ITP? Even if their role has been proven, can't SKs be OP with multiple roles to make up for what they lack in numbers? 

Gotta go to work. 

[Makaze]

1 hour ago, SullyMcGully said:

No. I already half-claimed. I'm not gonna full claim. Why do you ask?

Nah, I don't think Mack's interactions are scummy anymore. It's just Mack being Mack! I know Mack pretty well. And his posting has managed to satisfy my questions with his slot. Not to mention Makaze has raised a few good points in his favor.

Sort of agree? I quoted this when I saw it, but Snoyke's later posts caused me to doubt that.

Sorry I don't have time for a more substantial read. 

##Vote: Lord Gaius

I'd rather lynch here than lynch Arcanite. The amount of effort Arcanite is putting into rereading seems like something he wouldn't do as scum. Maybe as an ITP, though.

Also, couldn't Snoyke be an ITP? Even if their role has been proven, can't SKs be OP with multiple roles to make up for what they lack in numbers? 

Gotta go to work. 

Getting rid of back of mind suspicions. Alright. If you had full claimed it would look worse here.

Snyoke being ITP makes sense, actually. I wasn't really considering that. What exactly are all of their powers?

[Makaze]

1 hour ago, Alette said:

@Makaze This is a post from Satsuma that is alarming considering Shinori's flip

What exactly is alarming, besides being wrong?

[Alette]

1 minute ago, Makaze said:

What exactly is alarming, besides being wrong?

The way that he said it is very buddy like in a way. We talked about associations last night and this brings it together for me.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

On 4/16/2018 at 6:29 PM, Iris said:

Day 2. End of Day Votals
Junko (9): athena_57, Mackc2, eclipse,  Kaoz, Zkirsche, Fable, Refa, BBM
Zkirsche (6): Junko, SullyMcGully, Omega., Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy, Makaze, Via
eclipse (3): Lord Gaius, Jaybee, Shinori
Omega (1): Walrein
Shinori (1): Arcanite
BBM (1): Alette

LG, Makaze, Snike, Kill, Walrein, Arcanite/Weapons look the worst here. I think it's weird that BBM was killed over an earlier voter on the Junko wagon; makes me consider a bus.

My POE is still [LG/Weapons/Makaze/Kill] at the moment. I say just kill all of these people and see what happens.

I wanted to kill Snike for ruining the dayphase earlier, but I didn't want him dead before today. I don't know why he makes this play as wolf; he's failed to sink Mackc and has instead made himself look way worse for little benefit. I don't know what he is doing really, but he's had a few villagery moments earlier in the game. That said, I don't really even grasp what all this claim stuff is; my eyes have glazed over it because we were doing perfectly fine before it was brought to the forefront. If someone wants to tl;dr this for me, I'd look over it. I've only skimmed since what happened last night: has Walrein done anything? Like a reads list or anything at all? I'm not putting up with his coasting for much longer.

I'm Jaybee, a self-watcher delayer.

[Makaze]

2 minutes ago, Omega. said:

LG, Makaze, Snike, Kill, Walrein, Arcanite/Weapons look the worst here. I think it's weird that BBM was killed over an earlier voter on the Junko wagon; makes me consider a bus.

My POE is still [LG/Weapons/Makaze/Kill] at the moment. I say just kill all of these people and see what happens.

I wanted to kill Snike for ruining the dayphase earlier, but I didn't want him dead before today. I don't know why he makes this play as wolf; he's failed to sink Mackc and has instead made himself look way worse for little benefit. I don't know what he is doing really, but he's had a few villagery moments earlier in the game. That said, I don't really even grasp what all this claim stuff is; my eyes have glazed over it because we were doing perfectly fine before it was brought to the forefront. If someone wants to tl;dr this for me, I'd look over it. I've only skimmed since what happened last night: has Walrein done anything? Like a reads list or anything at all? I'm not putting up with his coasting for much longer.

I'm Jaybee, a self-watcher delayer.

When would you get results on the watch: when it was first tried, or when it actually landed after the delay?

[Makaze]

@Walrein i do pretty much agree with Omega here

post a reads list

you have the time

[Athena_57]

I've read/skimmed everything posted between me going to bed last night (page 81) and now. I might have missed some stuff, so if anyone has specific questions feel free to ask. I've come to a few conclusions:

- Kill has done a very good job of destroying the towncred Kirsche built up. I didn't like his entrance, and looking at phase end of day 2 again, I can see where people are coming from when they wonder why scum didn't vote Kirsche. I still think it could just be because not all were online/those who were online couldn't naturally switch, but I can also see it being because Kirsche was scum. My read on Kill is now leaning town instead of 90% town.

- The Snoyke/Mack exchange was interesting... Both slots end up looking worse as a result. I'd like to lynch between the two of them, but the biggest wagons as of now appear to be Arc and LG?

-Speaking of @Arcanite, please stop reading D1/D2 and just get to last couple of hours of D2 and the beginning of D3, that's where most of the interactions and current read-lists are from. You also haven't said how you felt about the other lynch candidates of today yet?

- As for LG, I'm not really sold on the roleclaim either, I could see it being fake.

I'm fine with hanging Arcanite/Lord Gaius/Walrein. I'm also fine with lynching Snoyke/Mack, mostly because the interactions between the two would help clearing/catching the other.

Of the ones in this list that are a serious wagon atm I think I prefer Arcanite, I'd consolidate on any of the others.

##Unvote

##Vote: Arcanite

Someone also asked whether I was notified that I was redirected N1, I was indeed notified of this.

[Killthestory]

fucking ouch

anyways, snike's push on mack doesn't read very scum motivated. it's especially weak, it's very half assed, but it doesn't push much of a scum agenda when you have a bunch of other viable lynches running around (at least me includes 1). a wolf pushing that seems fucking ridiculous with what snike was bringing across, and i generally just liked how against the thread he was. i liked the other hydra partner's engagement with me and their tone included. that slot doesn't ring wolf at all, and it's never in my poe as far as today goes.

arcanite gives off the vibe they're more focused on townreads than being scumread. they throw a lot of questionable reads about and try to edge their way around scumreads by being careful and hoping not to upset anyone. a lot of their reads, actually, look like tmi, and i mainly paid attention where without really previously mentioning me as far as i read back just gives me a blanket townread. doesn't seem genuine.

makaze on the other hand is the opposite. he's been forcefully solving the entire day, and his progression ajd waffling are very hard to fake as scum. i especially like when he's paranoid about players because it isn't him setting up future mislynches but instead making sure town reconsiders on them. i didn't like the omega scumread or shade or whatever the fuck, but it doesn't mean the thought process he used to get there was scummy.

[Killthestory]

fuck athena's reasoning and bullshit ass town points, but it can be town too fucking

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

KIIIIILLL . I'ma try to pull up some things for you later if you're interested. I'm on the road atm but will have pc time soon.

Makaze, I believe I'd be told at the end of the night phase. Both nights after SB/Iris processed actions, I was told that no one had visited me. So I assume if they were successful, I'd be told, "X and Y visited you", something to that effect.

[Killthestory]

Just now, Omega. said:

KIIIIILLL . I'ma try to pull up some things for you later if you're interested. I'm on the road atm but will have pc time soon.

Makaze, I believe I'd be told at the end of the night phase. Both nights after SB/Iris processed actions, I was told that no one had visited me. So I assume if they were successful, I'd be told, "X and Y visited you", something to that effect.

kk

[Iris]

Day 3.12
Arcanite (5): Refa, via, Killthestory, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy, athena_57
Lord Gaius (4): Kaoz, Fable, Omega., SullyMcGully
Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy (2): Mackc2, Alette
Killthestory (1): Makaze
Walrein (1): Lord Gaius

Not Voting: Arcanite, Baldrick, Walrein

There are ~29 hours left in the day. With 16 alive, it takes 6 to lynch and 11 to hammer.

Edited April 19, 2018 by Iris

[Fable]

@Alette

What were you aiming for the frigging moon?!

Still not big on Walrein not really pushing anyone now that he can't push omega is not inspiring confidence

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

Fable, what'd you think of Kill's entrance?

Also, LG sheeped you on Walrein pretty fast. Not sure he does that as partners.

More in a bit, home soon.

[Fable]

I find most most of kill's posts illegible so he's hard for me to read. I'm just assuming kirsche was a villager considering how things went down.  I don't see to wolves try to tunnel each other from d1.

[Arcanite]

Hello

I am here now

2 hours ago, athena_57 said:

You also haven't said how you felt about the other lynch candidates of today yet?

Because I went to bed and I only just got time now

I'll start with LG 

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

On 4/17/2018 at 8:20 PM, Fable said:

Shinori ISO

-Defends Zeus and JB on page 18 but in a direct way just in a "you should be voting for people other than them" kinda way. 

-Also does a nightmare case on the same page which looks good for mack I think.

-Suggests Refa as 3p on page 40? Seems like a weird angle to take on something that's w/w. Probably looks good for Refa? 

-Pushes against Bibbon's defense of BBM which looks good for the bibbon slot if people have doubts there still. 

-He pushes a Athena a ton so Athena should be clear af 

-He's super hedgy on Walrein, says he's wolfy but manages to say he's gotten way better and defends him with Junko on page 47 in the same post.

-That Omega slot is lock clear with how Shinori gets with him on page 48.

-He pushes on Nightmare a lot too over the course of the two days. 

##Vote:Walrein

I think JB is a good lynch but obviously would be boring if I piled on there too and I think the way he talked about Walrein is a lot like how he treated Junko, wolf read him but always found a way to say he was getting better or shouldn't be lynched. That tied with how obvious V the Omega slot is and how Walrein parked on him for 2 straight says make me not like him so much anymore.  

 

-

 

 

I thought this was pretty good and am pulling it back up to remind y'all.

Hm, what else. I still have no idea why everybody left Gaius alone after he claimed bookie. The only reason I've seen is from Refa saying he believes Gaius was telling the truth with regards to his role tipping him off to an SK, but eh, that's not enough for me personally.

@Refa You said you're not feeling too confident on any lynch, or do you have some more resolve now? I think LG/Walrein/Arcanite probably holds a wolf, maybe even 2 or 3, but mafia's usually not that easy. Also, what do you make of the Snike/Mackc thing? Does that make Snike a wolf?

I'm where Fable was at earlier in thinking that we're okay if we lynch within the pool of 3 regardless of flips. I don't know about Makaze/Snike, but I guess they can have more time. As for Kill, I liked his entrance and it's very interesting that Kirsche networked Walrein. That's a very pro-village move, and he doesn't get much from doing that as a wolf. I can see him sussing Walrein after the flip. As a wolf, it's a bad play because you're allowing a potential mislynch to get a foothold/towntell through network communications. I'm not saying he's cleared, just that I'm having trouble seeing why he'd do that as a wolf.

That said, there's almost definitely a wolf or 2 who have been read V at one point of another. The wolves aren't as obvious as they were before.

@Killthestory

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/83026-i-dont-need-serenes-forest-mafia-mafia-5-day-3/&page=46

If you have any time, read from p46 to like....52 or something, whatever, and see if anything sticks out to you. The game became more active around that part so you may be able to get some stuff out of there.

[🔥YOLOSWAG🔥]

1 hour ago, Killthestory said:

makaze on the other hand is the opposite. he's been forcefully solving the entire day, and his progression ajd waffling are very hard to fake as scum. i especially like when he's paranoid about players because it isn't him setting up future mislynches but instead making sure town reconsiders on them. i didn't like the omega scumread or shade or whatever the fuck, but it doesn't mean the thought process he used to get there was scummy.

I see where you're coming from, but eh Idk, dude tried to call me ITP last night which is wolfy AF and zeus wasn't great. He probably never leaves my POE, though a LG wolf flip looks good for some reason I forget at the moment. I don't know if he's pulling a Vigg here in terms of riding gameflow or if this is how he solves. I still feel like village can lose this.

It might be good to lynch between LG/Arc today just for the sake of not exposing more PRs.

[Percivalé]

sorry for coasting, I just haven't really had a lot to say. maybe I'm falling for AtE but LG'S guilt tripping/frustration at being lynched made me really demotivated about lynching him, because I don't want him to not play NOC ever again.