Voting Gauntlet: A Hero Rises 2023!

[Sunwoo]

So, I guess Veronica's going to the finals.

[Tybrosion]

Ah yeah, it's the second seed versus......the eighth seed in the finals.

Don't we all love how VGs tend to go?

[Ether]

I think as far as the whole VG discourse goes... as a game mode with practically zero stakes, the cheer-squad gameplay is fine. I'm not enamoured with it but it's harmless. As a method to determine something that actually has an effect on the game like AHR, it's absolutely atrocious. VG isn't a poor game mode but it's a poor choice of mode for this event.

As for the finals, well I was on team Ophelia so that should say enough of my thoughts on the matter. To be honest, as someone who is passively merging her up, I would have rather had FEdel on the banner than Fomortiis, and him coming in first is probably by absolute worst case scenario. I have no desire to use the big bastard, and seeing more of him floating around would be nothing but annoying.

Team Veronica here I come.

[Humanoid]

The thing I like least about VG (besides it being employed for something as high-stakes as AHR) is that it incentivises logging in at specific times during the day, multiple times a day. But I nonetheless acknowledge that this is the same thing that drives engagement metrics that video game companies are so in love with these days. In an ideal world I'd be able to log in just once a day, or hell, less than once a day, without losing out on anything material, but here we are. But eh, in the grand scheme of things it's probably barely in the top-10 biggest gripes I have with the game.

As for the results of the latest round, they're of little consequence to me. Well, a little consequence I guess, in that if I had a bad run of luck, I could still find myself only ending up with one of Veronica and Camilla at the end of the banner, instead of them both. This would require Formortiis to win the VG, and for me to pull zero copies of Veronica and Camilla with orbs. In that case I'd just have to spark Veronica I suppose and live with it. With more normal luck I should hope to get not only both, but Fomortiis as well just to complete the set.

[Xenomata]

I... stopped caring about voting gauntlets forever ago. It's just rewards to me now. Heck, I technically don't even care who wins these A Hero Rises VGs, I only cared about making sure Hegemon didn't get past the first round, for all the good I managed to do.
If they just handed out all the event rewards and like 10k feathers without a gauntlet, I wouldn't even complain.

So I guess it's Veronica vs Formortiis? Why is no one making it clear who won, I got better things to do than try to translate your cryptic messages.

[Humanoid]

Just now, Xenomata said:

So I guess it's Veronica vs Formortiis?

Yep. It was a little hard for me to figure out as well because for some reason the subreddit stickied the new banner trailer and a daily discussion thread instead of the VG thread. In the end I read the results off the predictors in the OP here.

[Xenomata]

Ah cool. Either Veronica, who's a good offensive unit in general, or Fomortiis, a broken defensive unit.

Again, I technically don't care. I either get some Panic Smoke 4 fodder or a unit I don't have. Shame we won't be getting a free Arcane weapon I guess.

Edited March 5, 2023 by Xenomata

[Sunwoo]

11 minutes ago, Xenomata said:

So I guess it's Veronica vs Formortiis? Why is no one making it clear who won, I got better things to do than try to translate your cryptic messages.

 

1 hour ago, Sunwoo said:

So, I guess Veronica's going to the finals.

Bro, how is that not clear enough for you? 😛

Also, I stopped caring about VG after Shanna beat Takumi in same hell after being weaker to him for hours upon hours.

[Xenomata]

1 minute ago, Sunwoo said:

Bro, how is that not clear enough for you? 😛

 I was on Veronica's team. For some reason no one wanted to name drop Fomortiis...

[Midnox]

Camilla lost to Veronica, AGAIN 

 

[Ice Dragon]

A bit sad I won't get a free Camilla merge to decrease the number of pulls I'll need to do on this banner, but a free Fomortiis sounds good, too, especially since I won't be pulling colorless (except when there isn't any red).

I hope Fomortiis wins.

[Xenomata]

I guess I'll join Veronica's team now, if and only because of the two, I'd rather sit next to Veronica on an airplane. Fomortiis would probably murder everyone on the plane as part of his plan to destroy everything...

[Humanoid]

He'd probably hog the armrest too, and recline his seat during mealtimes.

Edited March 5, 2023 by Humanoid

[Othin]

Fomortiis definitely seems like the go-to, as the only non-red unit here.

[Midnox]

Well, stuck with Veronica team because of, uhh… “personal reasons”, but I’m more inclined about our dear demon king to win. Oh well, Veronica is pretty good too

[Mercakete]

Wow, the final round is ideal for me! =D One of my top two picks is guaranteed to win! I wonder which it'll be... Well, I can snipe whichever color doesn't win. So, I guess I want Veronica to win since I think the odds of pulling Fomortiis as a focus unit is higher than pulling Veronica. There are more reds on the banner than colorless, right?

[Othin]

11 minutes ago, Mercakete said:

Wow, the final round is ideal for me! =D One of my top two picks is guaranteed to win! I wonder which it'll be... Well, I can snipe whichever color doesn't win. So, I guess I want Veronica to win since I think the odds of pulling Fomortiis as a focus unit is higher than pulling Veronica. There are more reds on the banner than colorless, right?

The focus banner will be three reds and one colorless, and red focus units appear at a slightly lower rate than colorless ones. However, if you plan to snipe one color on the banner, red is much better, since it has almost three times the focus rate as colorless due to Veronica, Camilla, and Ophelia all being there.

If you completely don't care about Camilla and Ophelia, you'd be better off sniping colorless, but if you have any interest, even for duplicates, red is almost certainly more appealing.

[Ice Dragon]

19 minutes ago, Mercakete said:

Wow, the final round is ideal for me! =D One of my top two picks is guaranteed to win! I wonder which it'll be... Well, I can snipe whichever color doesn't win. So, I guess I want Veronica to win since I think the odds of pulling Fomortiis as a focus unit is higher than pulling Veronica. There are more reds on the banner than colorless, right?

Due to colorless currently having the largest share of the 3-star and 4-star pools, the probability of pulling Veronica while sniping red and the probability of pulling Fomortiis while sniping colorless are literally dead even.

At base rates:

• Each orb has a 26.7% chance of being red, and each red orb has a 2.81% chance of being Veronica.
• Each orb has a 26.5% chance of being colorless, and each colorless orb has a 2.83% chance of being Fomortiis.

If you want both units, getting Fomortiis as the freebie is superior because the Camilla and Ophelia "pity breakers" while pulling red are much better than the actual pity breakers pulling colorless.

[Mercakete]

@Othin @Ice Dragon

Thanks guys. I was more thinking you have a 1 in 3 chance for the focus red unit to be Veronica, and a 100% chance for the focus colorless unit to be Fomortiis, but I guess that's not how it works?

[Othin]

14 minutes ago, Mercakete said:

@Othin @Ice Dragon

Thanks guys. I was more thinking you have a 1 in 3 chance for the focus red unit to be Veronica, and a 100% chance for the focus colorless unit to be Fomortiis, but I guess that's not how it works?

The key detail is that if there's three red units and one colorless unit, you're three times as likely to get a focus unit in red as in colorless. Rather than the focus rate per color being about 3/3/3/3, it's about 9/0/0/3 - still an average of 3%, but concentrated in one of the colors. So only a third of the rate goes to each one, but the base rate is three times as high, so it evens out. That's why color sharing can be such a big advantage - it means your pity rate can break more easily, but it also means a much higher total chance of getting something good.

[Midnox]

2 hours ago, Mercakete said:

Wow, the final round is ideal for me! =D One of my top two picks is guaranteed to win! I wonder which it'll be... Well, I can snipe whichever color doesn't win. So, I guess I want Veronica to win since I think the odds of pulling Fomortiis as a focus unit is higher than pulling Veronica. There are more reds on the banner than colorless, right?

Wait, a banner, ON TOP OF THE WINNER FOR FREE? Fuck yeah, I’m saving ‘em orbs

[Humanoid]

And as a result of all the above, it's probably still in your best interests to snipe red anyway and just spark Formortiis even if he loses the final. Assuming you're happy with just one copy of course.

[Othin]

Just now, Humanoid said:

And as a result of all the above, it's probably still in your best interests to snipe red anyway and just spark Formortiis even if he loses the final. Assuming you're happy with just one copy of course.

I don't feel much need for a third Ophelia, so if Fomortiis loses, I'll plan to pull both red and colorless to see if I can get one of him or Camilla before using the spark to get the other, since it's cheaper than pulling just red and has about the same odds of getting a focus unit I don't have.

[Mercakete]

@Othin

I tried to be clear, but what I'm talking about is sniping specific units, not just any focus unit available. For example, if I sniped red and pulled an Edelgard, I'd be annoyed because it's not who I was aiming for. (Like that time I got I don't know how many Jaffars instead of Legendary Robin. I still don't have Legendary Robin.) So it's less "at least I got x unit" and more "goal or nothing" as far as what I'd consider a success goes.

[Othin]

57 minutes ago, Mercakete said:

@Othin

I tried to be clear, but what I'm talking about is sniping specific units, not just any focus unit available. For example, if I sniped red and pulled an Edelgard, I'd be annoyed because it's not who I was aiming for. (Like that time I got I don't know how many Jaffars instead of Legendary Robin. I still don't have Legendary Robin.) So it's less "at least I got x unit" and more "goal or nothing" as far as what I'd consider a success goes.

In that case, the chance of success is roughly the same either way.