Qprogue Mafia - Game Over

[Refa]

Sometimes people don't want to hear the truth because they don't want their illusions destroyed.

Yo, a thunderstorm killed my home internet and I've just got to uni. I'll do stuff tomorrow morning.

Sounds like a scum power role to me; guess my read on you was wrong, better reevaluate things.

[charlie_]

But there's no thunder element...

Too lazy to make a serious response atm.

[MancerNecro]

Except I do have cases on all three of you. I've been casing BBM since day 2, Quote/SB since day 1 and my first post in day 3 has cased Refa and how there could be a weird gambit and he is scum claiming Vengeful.

Honestly, I don't think Bellysaurus is scum at all from interactions and role. Bellysaurus was also not on the Elieson wagon at all so SB just went 180 on his own analysis of the votes to find Belly scummy.

The plan I proposed was a simple and quick vigging and lynching process to kill off all the scum as fast as possible. The targets are arranged FMPOV and thoughts so obviously I would place Bellysaurus and myself last on that list.

There is no point arguing and discussing since all of you are so hellbent on trusting BBM's claim and pointing the lynch at Shin. If there really are too many protective roles in this game then BBM is the one whose role has not been proven yet and is most likely lying.

I've got nothing more to say about Shin if you're all so eager to lynch him but I'm not supporting that lynch right now for reasons I've already stated.

I'm only supporting a BBM/Refa/SB lynch this phase because I have a strong feeling that the scum team is among them.

Also, apparently, Refa only found me scummy after the point where I was defending Shin and was casing up and pushing BBM that him finding me scummy feels like an indirect BBM defense. If you all ever decide to lynch me this phase, look at this paragraph again after I flip, thanks.

I don't mind being vigged or lynched now since my flip will give out a lot of info. As eclipse mentioned in SFMM 4's postgame, dying can be a good way to contribute to town as well and in this case, it's my flip that will contribute to town. I doubt that scum will nightkill me between eclipse and Shin existing and the fact that I'm a possible potential mislynch target now.

[BBM]

we're not going to lynch you when you're 99% not scum

Your flip wouldn't even give info, because you flipping town doesn't mean your reads are necessarily correct, you're not in a 1v1, and nobody even thinks you're scum.

the only times town dying contributes to town victory:

a) your death in some way allows somebody's alignment to be determined

b) your death means someone more important isn't dead

Neither of these are the case here

[Refa]

Except I do have cases on all three of you. I've been casing BBM since day 2, Quote/SB since day 1 and my first post in day 3 has cased Refa and how there could be a weird gambit and he is scum claiming Vengeful.

Honestly, I don't think Bellysaurus is scum at all from interactions and role. Bellysaurus was also not on the Elieson wagon at all so SB just went 180 on his own analysis of the votes to find Belly scummy.

There is no point arguing and discussing since all of you are so hellbent on trusting BBM's claim and pointing the lynch at Shin. If there really are too many protective roles in this game then BBM is the one whose role has not been proven yet and is most likely lying.

I've got nothing more to say about Shin if you're all so eager to lynch him but I'm not supporting that lynch right now for reasons I've already stated.

I'm only supporting a BBM/Refa/SB lynch this phase because I have a strong feeling that the scum team is among them.

Also, apparently, Refa only found me scummy after the point where I was defending Shin and was casing up and pushing BBM that him finding me scummy feels like an indirect BBM defense. If you all ever decide to lynch me this phase, look at this paragraph again after I flip, thanks.

I don't mind being vigged or lynched now since my flip will give out a lot of info. As eclipse mentioned in SFMM 4's postgame, dying can be a good way to contribute to town as well and in this case, it's my flip that will contribute to town. I doubt that scum will nightkill me between eclipse and Shin existing and the fact that I'm a possible potential mislynch target now.

It's not a gambit lol; not going to argue about it here but you'll see in postgame that I was telling the truth. You'll all see! *frothing demand increases*

Good point about SB actually; you can't just say that the scumteam is on Elieson's wagon and then...case someone who wasn't on Elieson's wagon at all. BBM's claim is not townie at all; like eclipse said, it could come from either alignment (that being said, I'm pretty sure he's not lying about it at the very least because there are so many...townier roles to lie about than that...like masons!). I'm townreading him for his actual play and based off of my ISO. You have your way. I have my way. As for the right way, the correct way, and the only way, it does not exist.

Mancer, can you please read my case on Shin (it's in my ISO's); the reason why I was scumreading you in the first place was because you were dismissing my read based off of his role alone (also because your case on BBM annoyed me because you assumed he was scum). Let me make one thing clear, the only person I have a definite scumread on at the moment is Shin (hence why all of my other reads are associative reads going off of that); I know that someone in those townreads is scum but I just can't get a scumread off of any of their individual plays (or even associations with Marthipan at this point). I claimed that you're the most likely to be scumbuddies with Shin because of your dismissal of my case on him. That being said, I'm not sure if you'd be so kosher with getting vigged/lynched as scum so you're really throwing me off here.

[MancerNecro]

it'd be easy to PoE between SB, Beli, and Mancer (Mancer > SB > Beli in that case).

Refa does now and SB has expressed a willingness to lynch me since I was on the Elieson wagon.

[BBM]

also I just can't buy that town has a cop, watcher, and tracker. Even with this game's mechanics, that's just too much. In some ways, the fact that they're spread over 3 elements is even more OP because it means there's like an 80% chance that at least one of the 3 is picked on any given night, going by probability, whereas if they were all in one element, sure you could use them all at once, but there'd only be like a 33% chance of the element even getting picked. Now, of course this changes since it's not really random and at least one of the investigative roles would probably campaign hard for that element to get picked, but still.

@Mancer- well either way I'm not lynching you

Also I think I'm in favour of letting SB live today because I doubt that scum would have like two trackers so I GUESS if we go with Holy, if he can prove his role then he'd be clear

That being said, Tracker in this game is pretty much as easy as Cop to fake for scum, since he can just pick a townie and go "hey they visited nobody" and it wouldn't even be a clear with 2 scum alive

[MancerNecro]

Forgive me for whining but I'm quite frustrated in this game actually so if my frustration leaks in my posts, I'm sorry.

I have the scum reads but I am unable to tell who's scum right now and I'm irritated.

I don't like SB's so-called analysis because he basically left the results (the votals) for someone else to analyse for him. Basically, it leaves him in a position to sheep anyone's analysis and idea after that. That and SB going completely around to suspect Belly of being scum confirms my suspicions.

[BBM]

actually yeah, Tracker is pretty much entirely useless because it confirms nothing at all unless SB targets scum on the kill. Sure there's probably a GF but I'm not guaranteed to target them, and I have just the same odds of targeting the non-scum GF as SB has of targeting the scum on the kill.

[Refa]

Also I think I'm in favour of letting SB live today because I doubt that scum would have like two trackers so I GUESS if we go with Holy, if he can prove his role then he'd be clear

That being said, Tracker in this game is pretty much as easy as Cop to fake for scum, since he can just pick a townie and go "hey they visited nobody" and it wouldn't even be a clear with 2 scum alive

Wouldn't it be easier to force a 1v1 with town? People are more inclined to believe the person inciting the 1v1 from my personal experience (Reclass Mafia with kirsche, SFMM4 with jalmont). It's why I'm not as sure about SB overall, because I feel like as scum he'd try to force a mislynch and claim a guilty on me the next day (since several people are OK with lynching me). Actually wait that wouldn't work because vengeful haha, best role ever nevermind ignore that last bit. Thoughts are the shadows of our feelings -- always darker, emptier and simpler.

actually yeah, Tracker is pretty much entirely useless because it confirms nothing at all unless SB targets scum on the kill. Sure there's probably a GF but I'm not guaranteed to target them, and I have just the same odds of targeting the non-scum GF as SB has of targeting the scum on the kill.

Also that's assuming that scum does have a Godfather in the first place.

[charlie_]

Mancer: Your case on Via was literally that they were too busy to post and then weren't being /super optimal/ with what they read when they did post. It's obvious that this wasn't faked considering they subbed out because they were too busy. Me prodding Beli a little is hardly a 180 considering I've done very little to actually press him and my opinions aren't going to stay exactly the same considering we get more information as the game goes on. I'm not sure if a watcher can exist alongside my role either and actually having to read Beli for once rather than just ignoring him is kind of hard.

I have also NOT expressed interest in lynching you, get this through your head. Just because I said that I think that there's scum on the Elieson wagon doesn't mean I'm okay with lynching absolutely everyone on it.

Refa, explain to me why BBM looks townie to you outside of having good cases? Because he can fake good cases as scum too.

I don't doubt that BBM is a gravedigger considering that he crumbed it all game, it's his alignment that's questionable and if he's scum he can easily lie about the cop so.

BBM: I also target scum lying about their role for guilties on them too, so. Also, having Cop and Watcher in the same element would be op as fuck lol because the Watcher just sits on the Cop without claiming and the Tracker racks up reports too. Having one of them active 80% of the time is less than what we have in a normal game's night 1...

[Refa]

A casual stroll through a lunatic asylum shows that faith does not prove anything.

Refa, explain to me why BBM looks townie to you outside of having good cases? Because he can fake good cases as scum too.

BBM: I also target scum lying about their role for guilties on them too, so. Also, having Cop and Watcher in the same element would be op as fuck lol because the Watcher just sits on the Cop without claiming and the Tracker racks up reports too. Having one of them active 80% of the time is less than what we have in a normal game's night 1...

I don't think he's townie just for having good reads? Like I agree with you that he can definitely fake good reads as scum (thanks Scumbound), but that doesn't appear to be the case here. My main reasons for finding him townie are (which you can see in my ISO and posts but whatever putting them here for conveniences' sake): 1) his doubts about Rapier's scumslip (which came across as genuine to me), 2) him tunneling hard on Elieson (which I don't see him doing as scum because it'd obviously make him look bad later on when Elieson flipped town and even later when Marthipan flipped scum), 3) his earlier interactions with Marth didn't come across as scum/scum interactions (I agree that his later interactions considering the flip are bad, though), 4) his push on Shin (who's my #1...scumread), and 5)...his cases are well written (yes, that is a part of my townread on him sorry). From what I can tell, you're scumreading him because 1) he pushed Marthipan until he was going to get lynched Day 1 (I don't see how this is like Deathbound at all considering over there he did end up bussing his scumbuddy and I'd expect him to do the same thing over here), 2) hard pushes Elieson to get lynched over Marthipan (I agree that this is scummy less so because of the hard push and more because of his unwillingness to consolidate on Marth, which reminds me of his play on Healer where he didn't want to bus Eury who was a POWER POWER ROLE), and 3) Marth ignored him despite pressing him constantly (I can see why this would be an issue FYPOV, but Marthipan fucking ignored me too only to waffle on me later so it'd be hypocritical for me to call BBM out on that). Overall, there's only one point of yours that I can really get behind and it's not as strong as the rest of my points overall (hence the townread on BBM).

Why would scum lying about their roles be on the kill if there's more than one scum alive? Just seems like they'd be asking for trouble.

[Prims]

Day 3.3 Votals

SB. (2) - MancerNecro, Belisarius

BBM (1) - Shin

Belisarius (1) - eclipse

Refa (1) - SB.

Shin (1) - Refa

Not Voting (2) - BBM, Xinnidy

Class Selection

Archer (3) - MancerNecro, Belisarius, Refa

Cleric (2) - SB., Xinnidy

Indecisive (3): BBM, eclipse, Shin

You have 47 hours and 4 minutes left in the phase. With 8 alive, it takes 5 to hammer.

Edited September 21, 2014 by Prims

[BBM]

I do think that GF is pretty likely

##Select: Archer

forgot to actually vote this

also still unsure of whom to elect president- leaning towards BELISHIN scumteam atm

everybody is making good arguments as to why Cop/Tracker/Watcher could exist simultaneously but my gut just says it isn't

[BBM]

I'm feeling right now that Refa isn't scum because honestly he could so easily have gone "damn I guess my BBM townread was wrong since he has to be scum through PoE", especially after Poly flipped town, and then there would pretty much be no one who believed enough that I would flip town to stop my lynch. There's white-knighting for towncred and then there's just walling off mislynch options, and I don't feel as if scum would do that when the numbers are so tight right now with PoE.

[eclipse]

So first I'm going to start off by saying Mancer, grow up. Not only did the issue not pertain to you in the slightest, but you have a hilariously biased view of what occured. Stop disrespecting me.

I'm town water watcher. I don't think that is more useful than SB or BBMs, and BBMs would be the strongest so

##Select Wind

1. If you have a problem with Mancer, that has NOTHING to do with the game, take it to PM.

2. Watcher + Macho is insanely strong.

Xinnidy was an unknown going into D2, which makes that Shin read a little weird.

Poly's problem was that he'd comment on two things and leave, constantly, which is why I wasn't sure what to think of his lack of response to my question during D2.

actually yeah, Tracker is pretty much entirely useless because it confirms nothing at all unless SB targets scum on the kill. Sure there's probably a GF but I'm not guaranteed to target them, and I have just the same odds of targeting the non-scum GF as SB has of targeting the scum on the kill.

In this case, it's not. Notice how people are claiming elements? That means that it's a lot easier to map out who should be doing things at night. If the track is on someone who should be idle, and isn't, that's grounds for a lynch. It's not quite as crazy as watcher, but it's a lot better than normal.

brb banning Prims because of the weaknesses in my role

Wouldn't it be easier to force a 1v1 with town? People are more inclined to believe the person inciting the 1v1 from my personal experience (Reclass Mafia with kirsche, SFMM4 with jalmont). It's why I'm not as sure about SB overall, because I feel like as scum he'd try to force a mislynch and claim a guilty on me the next day (since several people are OK with lynching me). Actually wait that wouldn't work because vengeful haha, best role ever nevermind ignore that last bit. Thoughts are the shadows of our feelings -- always darker, emptier and simpler.

We can always choose an element that's NOT Fire.

I STILL can't make sense of Beli's actions. He's got a scumread on BBM, and then votes for the element his scumread requested. There's also this bit that's bothering me to hell and back:

D1 kirsche scumreading eclipse. N1/D2 its revealed kirsche tracked eclipse. D2 kirsche no longer scumreading eclipse. Clearly had an investigative role of some kind and there was no point outing my own at the time or making an argument on why we should vote water.

eclipse is scummy because she overreacted to my vote that everyone quickly told me was stupid and removed a vote from her scumread to place one on me in hopes of a quick lynch. It's very mafia to be reactive in that way.

(hint: check the quote times)

That being said, I like neither Beli's logic nor his role, and am perfectly happy with my vote. I think Shin should be dealt with by Xinnidy, rather than lynch - like BBM, I'm on the fence as to which side his role is on, and I'd have to go on PoE with him (since I'm not really reading SB/Xinnidy as scum, Refa's posts are a lot better, and I regret not using my N2 action on Mancer). BBM's another weird case - on one hand, there's his role and his weird passiveness during D2. . .on the other, there's these posts that look really townie. Lastly, another night of Fire/Wind leaves me high and dry.

[Shin]

Yo, Shin is in! After a magical journey and probably quite a few highs I return! First of all, gg Poly. I thought your name sounded like Biraku cola.

Now, time for some serious business, and why not start off with SB. YEAH. Looking at the votes, it's true that a lot of unknowns were on the Eli wagon, so mathematically scum are probably on there.

Truth be told, I think we have a BBM/Refa scumteam. Refa's been soft-defending BBM for a fair while and his point about BBM's read on Marth has an issue. I was town reading Marth right up until he was lynched whilst BBM went from a kinda town read to a scumread when he got outed. There's a difference between thinking someone's town and being wrong and thinking someone's town then swapping to them near lynch. Whilst admittedly it could be considered that the evidence proved Marth was scum, but I don't like how both Refa and BBM made the same complaint.

There's an amazing amount of buddying too, Refa's reasons for his BBM town read are;

1) Not finding Rapier's slip scummy - Rapier makes mistakes all the time, and everyone who followed the slip was town.

2) Tunneling on Eli makes him look town - Actually kinda legit

3) Marth interactions - You admit they're also bad later

4) "Good" Shin read which is your #1 read - As scum it makes more sense to join an existing case rather than make a new one

5) Well written cases - Scum as smelly as they are don't immediately become illiterate

BBM's logic for Refa being town for not voting BBM could easily be explained by SCUMBUDDIES YEAH. If I really wanted Xin dead, I would have tried to get Knight voted. I don't like how you're fishing for the exact mechanics of my role. Xin's protected until I go, and I don't feel like dying and letting scum kill Xin. SB's scumread on Refa reminds me of my own suspicions but with the power of hindsight, it seems legit. I feel that BBM's "ah yes, I'm not sure about Refa" is a weak attempt at distancing himself without going in too strong.

I'm still for a BBM lynch, I don't care if nobody else wants to join it (except well, it can't happen if nobody else votes). I've got the eerie feeling that Refa's role might be true, so I'd rather get BBM out of the way first. In the off chance I'm wrong, I'll help Xin hold the gun when she shoots me!

eclpise, I don't know how BBM following the "scumslip" and voting Marth when there was like no pressure make him look townie.

[Belisarius]

1. If you have a problem with Mancer, that has NOTHING to do with the game, take it to PM.

2. Watcher + Macho is insanely strong.

I STILL can't make sense of Beli's actions. He's got a scumread on BBM, and then votes for the element his scumread requested.

There's also this bit that's bothering me to hell and back:(hint: check the quote times)

He has the problem with me that has NOTHING to do with the game and continued after I asked him to stop. No need to PM him, he's already proven me right.

I'm not macho and I don't understand your comment because macho is a negative trait.

Uhhh I'm not voting holy I'm voting wind and even though I voted that before I made my vote, it still stands. BBM has a stronger investigation role tonight than I do and nobody has expressed any interest in voting water except me because afaik I'm the only water role. You never claimed your water role if you have one.

Might wanna check when I had a brief discussion with kirsche that day. (HINT check the times its after that)

[eclipse]

He has the problem with me that has NOTHING to do with the game and continued after I asked him to stop. No need to PM him, he's already proven me right.

I'm not macho and I don't understand your comment because macho is a negative trait.

Uhhh I'm not voting holy I'm voting wind and even though I voted that before I made my vote, it still stands. BBM has a stronger investigation role tonight than I do and nobody has expressed any interest in voting water except me because afaik I'm the only water role. You never claimed your water role if you have one.

Might wanna check when I had a brief discussion with kirsche that day. (HINT check the times its after that)

AGAIN, that has nothing to do with the game, and should not be in the game thread. I will not repeat myself a third time. If you still have a problem with it, resolve it elsewhere.

Your homework today is to read through what I posted. . .or we can lynch you if you literally cannot be arsed to get your facts straight.

This is what you said about BBM. This is what element you're voting for. The only person who wants wind is BBM, so why the hell do you have him down as "probably mafia", and have a vote on wind?

Fine. Starting point of that snippet:

It doesn't make sense to sheep wind. Fire makes sense while Xinnidy is untargetable but with wind the only thing we found out was that you targeted eclipse with something. It makes you look a little more townie but it's not useful information as a whole.

. . .you're arguing with the person who you suspect is the cop, and saying that his role isn't useful in the subsequent comments.

It looks like there's a couple of divides - Shin's suspicion of BBM/Refa and BBM's suspicion of Beli/Shin. Today shall be a gold mine of associative reads. For now, I'm perfectly happy with my vote.

[eclipse]

eclpise, I don't know how BBM following the "scumslip" and voting Marth when there was like no pressure make him look townie.

Right, forgot about this. The first one felt spontaneous, and the second one is the explanation regarding his vote on Rapier.

[BBM]

it's pretty hilarious that Shin is trying to justify being incredibly vague about his role by "OH NO I MIGHT BE KILLED" when:

a) He's never going to be killed because there are people who are clear.

b) If I'm scum and I'm lynched today, then it becomes 6/1. Let's say town!Shin is killed at night, making it 5/1. Misvig + mislynch + nightkill on non-Xinny makes it 2/1 so Xinny can't even use her vig (well she can but it may as well be a lynch). Therefore at this stage there is no point to scum killing town!Shin to remove the boulder so they can shoot Xinny, because the earliest they can kill her is N4 and that's too late to make a difference.

c) Telling us what element he is isn't going to make mafia more inclined to kill him. Neither will telling us how many shots he has, because if he could use another boulder while the first one is active, he would have done so by now, and it doesn't look like we're removing the boulder (today, anyways)

d) Outing info about his role would actually be BENEFICIAL to the town if he got killed, because it would be easier to rolespec off it and determine which roles are more likely to be scum.

so basically, Shin is using BBM IS ROLEFISHING as an excuse to be anti-town when information about his role doesn't

By the way, a corollary of b) is that we should NOT pick Fire tomorrow because Xinny won't be able to safely dayvig on D5, if the game gets there.

[charlie_]

I've been in :effort: mode all day. How long do we have left?

[BBM]

Refa, have you asked Prims what happens if you get lynched in 3P LYLO? Would the game automatically end or would you able to shoot someone first?

[BBM]

also I think we have like ~32 hours left

[BBM]

"when information about his role doesn't help scum" is how that sentence should end