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School of Hard NOCs (take 2) - Game over!


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Basically PoE for me comes down to 2 of: Refa/BBM/Gorf/Lurkers being scum.

Refa is here because of interactions with Prims and Mancer, he spent yesterday kind of ignoring the former (and passively defending him, I guess) while hard defending the latter. Prims pretty much ignored Refa too (which is especially weird because he went over all of the active people and said why they were town) and so did Mancer. I can see the latter leaving Refa alone as he could be town wrongly defending him or something but I don't really know why Prims would ignore him so shrug. If Refa IS scum, BBM is probably town because the way he defends him here reminds me of Qprogue (and so did the way he defended Mancer, come to think of it.)

BBM is closer to null now because I kind of had a similar thought process to him with his opening post today, although the weird associative gutreads are still there. I guess he probably should be townier, but I'm just kind of paranoid.

Gorf is null as far as actually posting goes but has better interactions with Mancer than the others. Don't really have much to say on him for now.

The lurking slots are unreadable atm, so.

##Vote: Refa

I'm 80% sure that I've figured out how to break the game open on massclaim, but I could still be wrong I guess. I'll wait for more flips or something before outing why.

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*sigh* Was going to reply to that, but my reply was going to end up saying "you're wrong" to like all of those points so not worth it. Get better at reading me etc. etc.

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Didn't ignore Prims (like yeah, I didn't talk about him before he became a wagon because I thought he was town), never hard defended Mancer (my first post about Mancer had him as a scumread ;/), it's incredibly frustrating that you're basing a scumread on me of Prims ignoring me (because it's entirely out of my control; scum ignoring me shouldn't incriminate me unless there was a reason for scum to pay attention to me see: Mancer's interactions with Prims), Mancer had a townread on me in one of his posts (and if he was ignoring me, why would he be constantly replying to me), me defending BBM is nothing like QProgue (because there I hard defended him for an entire phase knowing he would be lynched and getting towncred for it; here I...posted a 3 sentence blurb calling him town after I was scumreading him the previous day) and neither were my interactions with Mancer (assuming you're comparing them to my interactions with Bluedoom, but you should check yourself before you wreck yourself on that front).

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Gorf most likely isn't mafia but his day 1 has minimal agency, just defending the J wagon and poking Elieson and that sort of thing. Saying there might be scum suspecting J but not doing anything special to find them, saying Refa might be scum with weak triggers like gut and meta. I dunno, I guess it's a bit lacking. I don't think I want him lynched at this point though.

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If the confirmed-to-exist cop has a result on the lurkers the may want to out them, I'm pretty confident they're all top scum suspects. Maybe not Rapier (I like making snap decisions off of small interactions) but like let's try this:##Vote PolyThey're all top scum suspects because I don't see myself voting... almost all of the active players? What, Gorf? I think SB, BBM, Randa, Refa, Elieson and J are all town. (@BBM: You were a gut town read that turned stronger over Mancer's flip)Another idea I had was to just force claims out of all the lurkers and have a mini-massclaim but I guess I'll have other people's thoughts on that one.

Also given mancer's role I don't think poly would've hammered him as scum.

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Also given mancer's role I don't think poly would've hammered him as scum.

Yeah that's what I picked up on when SB asked those questions. Figured there's no harm in leaving the vote there while I go over other things.

Read Rapier. I'm not impressed by Rapier's Mancer case and, well... Mancer suspected Rapier's lonely little RVS vote with confidence and claimed he's made prod dodging posts and therefore must be lurkscum, which makes me think it was scum saying factual things about their scumbuddy.. eh. Compared to the lurking accusation against Randa, this one actually makes sense. The problem:

Regarding suspecting Rapier but still voting Randa: Scum can vote park on their buddies as well. It's a way of distancing themselves from their buddies too. If their buddies seem to be taking too much fire, they can just go along with the lynch on their buddy. There're no content posts from Rapier yet but he has appeared to make prod dodging posts so I believe that he may be scum lurking at this point in time.

Saying "yeah scum can park on their buddies as well" when Mancer knows Randa isn't Rapier's buddy (pretty much assuming town!Randa here) just doesn't make sense to me.

Actually I'm waffling on this quite a bit so maybe SF can help me.

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I don't think Gorf is the mafiers; he voted Mancer more or less out of the blue when the wagons were 3/3/2 for Mancer/me/Randa. I mean unless the scumteam's collective plan was to lynch Mancer D1 I'm not seeing this. And if it was the plan, Prims wouldn't have taken so long to get onto the Mancer wagon.

scum are probably in the lurkers + elie tbh, in that order

I was about to policy vote Poly for signing up and not doing anything every (NOC) game for the last couple months but Randa brings up a good point. From what I remember, it's generally Eclipse's policy to give results even as the corresponding member of the scumteam dies (see Vhaltz in Healer).

##Vote: Rapier

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I don't think Elie's gut read on Prims is a bus and I don't think Prims' interactions with Elie are buddy interactions, especially with the teasing about vigging Elie being actually kind of serious?

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BT not really sure what the problem there is? looks like Mancer was fabricating a reason to not vote for Rapier

Oh actually that post is Mancer defending his Rapier scumread from Refa's "Rapier is vote parking on Randa, are they both scum?".

Tbh the first time I went through interactions with Rapier I thought he was town. Maybe it's the quickhammer talk with Prims. But now I'm looking at it and thinking it's not that significant, and here we are.

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I actually somehow read the wrong votals and thought Prims was the hammerer and that Larsa was second and he got janitored because they found out he was cop or something >.> I guess that's a point in Poly's favour.

Conspiracy Theory: ScarletFlame got told to vote by his buddies earlier so that they would get the report? Will respond to Refa later, don't have a lot of time atm.

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So quick thoughts after glancing over Prims ISO.

1. I really doubt Eli is maf. It seems like he was Prims fall back lynch he just never found support for it.

2. The Prims side of the interactions with gorf seems scummy I wanna go back and reread gorf though, because it could be scum trying to setup a mislynch on flip.

Not much else I can get of it. J is pretty obvtown right now.

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well from Mancer's POV if he got town!Randa lynched he could just line up lynches and go "I guess Rapier was scum parking on a townie"

basically I don't really think that's indicative either way

I also don't really think Elie is scum, which is why I had him specifically after the lurkers

SHINORI should produce content

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god damn town goin HAM

That was a premature post. Anyways like I intended to say, I felt that based on interactions with mancer there was a chance of scum!prims I didn't think Prims would be dead so I guess that question got answered still kinda surprised I was rightish cause I was a bit wishy-washy.

Anyways on to why I think BT is scum. It's like I said yesterday the re-iteration of the case against mancer seemed unprovoked to me. There didn't seem to be a whole lot of reason for it, unlike Refa who seems to have been doing it more so to convince himself mancer was scum, this seemed more to make the appearance of having a true scum read on mancer. Does that even make sense? Anyways the whole Prims interaction helps me to support this theory. It seems more like BT was nitpicking the finer points of Prims discussion and trying to construe all of prism actions into a scummy fashion. I just think that's more likely to come from scum bussing.

Also I kinda feel like J is town because of Prims interactions.

And I'm also pissed cause now I know there's no cult because there has to be an SK.

i actually feel like the bt conclusion should lead you to thinking bttown. #mafiatheory i feel like of the three scummates that any one scum has in this setup, one is likely to probz straight up ignore like 2 of em #endmafiatheory. also i didnt see bt tryna "construe prims into a scummy light," can you point out examples?

agreed @ your j conclusion tho, anyone who targets em has cement for a brain after that flip.

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i think scum seriously lies in kyrie elieson + lurkers

for anyone seriously suggesting bt as sk, please think. why does the sk claim his shot at the break of d2? hes probably gonna be targeted by mafia at this point if doc doesnt dry hump him at Night, so imo the dudes all but clear.

bbm is a motha fuckin bawss. so is sb. maybe theyre... tOo MuCh Of MoThAfUcKiN bAwSsEs?

refa is null lean town cuz play is reasonable but it always just leaves me with that... ehh feeling.

j should come in here and post things that are good.

randa def town

its really nice playing mafia with people who like playing for their wincon.

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