BBM Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm slightly more suspicious of Elie because he's demonstrated a killing ability, so it's ~possible that he's a SK who just got really unlucky, what with the mass-hook N1 and then getting hooked N4 by Baldrick. But then I can't see why he idled last night, so meh. JB on the other hand is a BPV, which could mean like BPV SK or something, but he would have had to have gotten even unluckier, because he was only hooked N1 and maybe N6. Really, if we have a SK, no matter who they are they would have had to have been really unlucky with their kills, so idk. Doublevoting third is a pretty good theory too, I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunwoo Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 (edited) No one died, it's now D7.It's also LYLO. D7 ends whenever a real host says it does Thanks Paperblade. It is now D7. D7 ends at 5:30 PM MST on March 24. With 4 alive, there must be a hammer (3 votes) to lynch. Edited March 22, 2013 by Sangyul Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 okay theory time third probably has a doublevote. even without that, one can argue no one is clear. 4/1/1 potential lylo. say we NL, and assume no roles. maf/third both kill town. 2/1/1 going into D7. Town plays kingmaker with 2 players, regardless of doublevote. best plan would actually be to force NL and hope antitowns cross kills. if we lynched one of them it'd be 4/1 going into the night and it'd be mylo with maf/lylo with third, assuming no blocks. now all that considered, remember that xinny was killed N2? why xinny over the claimed doc? well that could be explained as being the third killing xinny and not the mafia! since mafia couldn't kill the claimed doc (because of elie's doc), they decided to frame him using the roleblock and get him lynched that way. so if that's assumed then elie isn't lying about his doc or his kill, which pretty much clears him. so elie outs his roleblock target and yeah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 if anyone has a problem with this theory please speak up also i'm going to preempt your inevitable question/argument: no pushing after the effectively confirmed scum doesn't make sense if I was the third because it'd put myself in a worse situation over just going along with lynching Kay one sec I'm gonna logic crunch something Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elieson Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I hooked manix No kill Well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 hey uh someone wanna explain why the redirector redirected shinori to themselves n3? alternatively it might be the third has a redirect? i don't even know at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I hooked manix No kill Well? uh. i already explained why me being the third is shit also why me over JB, i'm curious the alternative is that JB was hit last night. hey JB were you hit last night or not Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 don't make me doubt my theory elie say you are town. i know i'm town so the only other explanation is JB was hit in which case BBM is it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 which makes perfect sense in the continuum because of his push to get Kay out of the way, knowing he wouldn't be shot etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 i know it goes against everything I know to place a vote down, but it's pretty damn tempting right now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 ugh that said it makes no sense for the SK to hit the BP over killing for the win one moment, back to square one (elie isn't clear once more) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 pertinent question elie: reasoning behind roleblock target? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBM Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I was playing up to this point under the assumption that Mancer wasn't killed because the mafia thought they might be able to lynch him off. And they were able to. SK!Elie makes most sense to me right now: N1: Elie gets mass-hooked N2: Mafia and Elie both hit same target- this is easy possible because while Xinny was looking pretty townie, so he might have also assumed that the mafia would kill Mancer, and so decided to go after Xinny instead. N3: This is where it gets kind of ehhh because Mancer was hooked this night and I can't see any SK, whoever they are, going after Darros. No idea what happened here. N4: Elie got hooked this night. N5: This is the night where Elie actually killed someone! N6: Elie idles to throw suspicion on the person he "hooked". Note that as far as I can tell, Manix got no notification that he was hooked. Of course, I don't know if passive/idling roles would even get it, but yeah. I also don't like at all how Elie hooked the one person that most people thought was most likely to be town. Most of the plans were for him to hook JB. I could have understood him hooking me too. But Manix? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 so yeah I think it is time to... reread there has to be something that would give more reads on this shit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 also yeah I have a big zero notification of being blocked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBM Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Also, if JB is the third, then he could easily just fake a hit BPV, so... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 ugh that said it makes no sense for the SK to hit the BP over killing for the win this is relevant re: JB, BBM like even faking it is like????????? why off that I think it's fair to say that JB is probably legit, y/n? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 like think about it why hit a BP, when today is LYLO and a dead guy instead of hitting a BP would win the game i don't even know anymore because nothing is making sense Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 we just need more information JB outs whether hit or not and we go from there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBM Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It's looking more and more likely to me that Elie idled a kill to throw suspicion on his "hook" target that probably doesn't even exist. But then comes the question of why wouldn't he just kill if it's LYLO right now? Hnng. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 this is stupid everything is circular logic unless the third isn't a doublevoter but gets some ability if there's no kills. I don't know. (like maybe a second kill? idek) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elieson Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Still at work but got a minute. Why hook Manix? Hook BBM: if he's town (and my early game reads sucked so I could have been wrong about him being scum) then he wouldn't be able to activate his Vengeful shot that he claims to have. Result: Potentially fuck over town. Hook JB: Hook a BpV, which I'm assuming exists to counter because of my Vig shot and mafia kill,, I believe is a 50/50 claim. Result: Help town if he is lying scum, no harm done if he is town. Hook Manix: hook a Miller, which is never provable no matter what, and considering I just hosted a game with a Miller fakeclaim as a given, it's possible. Result: same as JB. Honestly since the only night with two kills has been the night I got shafted and redirected to Shin, and I only had one shot, I assumed that JB is teetering potentially ITP, more than Manix and BBM, and if he is ITP, he doesn't seem threatening. So I figure that if an ITP exists, it's JB. BP makes sense for an ITP whatever to have, and it's provable (granted he claims hit). BBM's role is actually beneficial to town if he isn't lying through his teeth, and kinda POE'd my hook onto Manix. So with no kill, I'm assuming that either Manix is scum, trying to look town by deploying his "wtf happened" first, or scum idled to make, well, I dunno who look bad probably me since I have the only claimed kill in the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT075 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 (edited) oh, also With 4 players alive, 3 votes are needed to lynch. Edited March 22, 2013 by CT075 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunwoo Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 There's no "deadline lynch", Cam. They'll have to hammer if they want to lynch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT075 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 ...right then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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