Ragnarok Online Mafia [Game Over]

[ZoesMad]

Trying to think of what the Kirsche kill was for. He really didn't post much after all. I think Gilgamesh's wagon analysis was pretty solid with the exception of the Eury argument. If Eury is Blitz's scum buddy, then by her voting him as the second wagon (knowing that these two are already the leading wagons of the day), depending on who gets lynched, the other person will get towncred for either pushing the scum or being the last ditch throw away vote by the lynches scum. Regardless, Coronthian has the most egregious actions wrt the Blitz wagon, so shameless sheep/10.

##Vote: The3rdCorinthian

Gilgamesh is playing very townie imo and has had good logic/reads, especially with his most recent post.

[BBM]

this post was typed up during the night phase. going to sleep soon so I'll add more stuff in the morning

some half-assed reads based on me skimming prior to subbing in:

I agreed with most of what Prims said and he didn't set off any alarms and pushed Blitz so probably town?

I agreed with Prims about Mitsuki sounding a little fake at points but I don't see her being so committed to a Blitz bus as to not only start his wagon, but also campaign so hard against his counterwagon.

Refa was an early-ish townread I think but he kind of faded to the background in the latter half of the phase. still leaning town but dropping somewhat.

it bothers me somewhat that Life never said anything about Blitz (I'll check tomorrow) despite Prims asking several times. However I was townreading him prior to the flip so idk? Also not sure of the interactions the other way, aka if Blitz would start an early push against Life. Based on NPoT meta he's more likely to be town, but Life is also exactly the kind of player who would consciously subvert that. gun to my head town? also #modgaming but I feel like if I rolled a scumteam with Life and Blitz in it I would re-roll unless the other players were really good scum. .

my feelings about Eury are basically what SB said- I didn't really feel she was scum just on gut and tone by the end of the phase BUT she was an early scumread and I also didn't find anything particularly objectionable about any of the cases.

most likely bus on the Blitz wagon- Gilgamesh or corinthian? I don't really remember either of their reasons for voting Blitz tbh but purely based on vote timing, their's seem the most likely out of people I'm not townreading.

I THINK izhuark is town but I'm unsure. However if he's scum in this game I'll have his blueprint for at least the next 5-10 games he plays. Not that that will help for this one.

zerosabers was unmemorable; tied with Gaius for most likely person on the Eury wagon trying to save Blitz

I need to read Baldrick and Crysta more; their posts got so long that I skipped a few almost entirely.

I think one of Baldrick and SB is scum; the Crysta choice of vote feels kind of a "not tying myself to a wagon" sort of thing. I skipped a bunch of Baldrick posts, but of the two I have a worse feeling about him.

somewhat conversely though, I think kirsche is town for voting off the wagons. His Refa vote feels more like a "going to stick to my gut no matter what" sort of thing, which implies a conviction not often found in the da scum, though I need to read his posts again cuz I don't remember them much.

no particular feelings about SuperShyGuy. Wouldn't lynch them for a while though, based purely on D1 anyways.

Assuming a 12/4/1 setup- my scumteam guess is Gilgamesh/Corinthian, Baldrick/SB, and zero/Gaius. Too early to make a good ITP guess but... I'm going to fire a shot at Crysta or maybe Eury. tbh the scumteam could be any combo of the six people I said above but it seems less likely bc I don't see half the scumteam going for Crysta or half the scumteam trying to bus Blitz.

[BBM]

I'm going to specifically reread the people I mentioned as being possible scum or ITP tomorrow. At a quick glance Gilgamesh's wagon analysis seems to contradict my memory in several places. I thought zero was on Eury?

Also Gilgamesh's tone just seems kind of... over the top? dunno how to word it. not scummy exactly but it rubs me the wrong way. kind of smarmy.

Also I don't think the "omg Blitz was a scum POWER ROLE and not a goon" argument is good for much of anything. Are there even vanillas/goons in this game? I'm sort of nullish on Eury atm but if there were D1 scum/scum wagons why wouldn't she vote Blitz? as a more active player scum!Eury at least has more of a chance of defending herself D2 than Blitz would have had.

[Crysta]

I'm at work again. Will be posting and confusing the rest of you later.

[Dr. Rudy Mjølnir]

Really, BBM? You seem to be starting a habit of doubting me, you did the same thing in Criminal OC. What do you even think of my reads? You put on your first post that Corinthian was on your potential possible bus list and yet you are saying nothing on my read on him, do you agree with it or not? What are your thoughts?

[Refa]

Actually I'm obvious town if you look at the wagons. =)

##Vote: Lord Gaius

Yesterday's case and the timing of his Eury vote looks bad. Don't have time to read anything else ATM.

[Refa]

And to whoever targeted me last night: Please don't do that again. It won't help town, trust me.

[Life]

So at the risk of my head getting blown off this day phase...

##Vote: Life

Carry on, my wayward sons.

[Prims]

I seem to have been redirected to Crysta last night! You'll be noticing the effects of this shortly but not on future nights when I idle so scum doesn't get a free voteblock!

[Prims]

@Mod: Requesting a votecount. Also the OP says kirsche was killed N2 and not N1.

Also lol D1 mafia roleblocker lynch. I'm cool taking out The3rdCorinthian today but I have some other impressions from Blitz's flip to post - the gist of it is that Gaius, zerosabers and Refa (!) aren't looking too hot after it.

[The3rdCorinthian]

The link you've posted to, gilg, is to my very first mafia post. I hadn't really studied Blitz's playstyle: just looked at one or two of his mafia games and knew he liked asking a lot of questions. I also hadn't fully analysed everyones reads yet, so that initial post was pretty badly done. Then again, it was my first post ever in a mafia game, so i'm not suprised that I was jumping at shadows at this stage.

I said i didn't have a problem with Blitz's random questioning in my first post in a mafia game. Like I said, i hadn't really studied Blitz properly, so . Whilst i did have a slight scumread on Blitz because of the comments by people who knew his meta identifying said questions as being unhelpful (including you iirc), I didn't vote for him because I was being overly cautious and thought that I should only vote when it really really mattered. However, I'm now going to make full use of the fact that I can change my vote,, and be less cautious when it comes to using my vote to express my views.

I think i may know what the Kirsche kill was for: Last night, i tried to target supershyguy and protect him, since he seemed to be the one player everyone thinks is town,and thus one of the most likely targets for a mafia kill. However, the resulting post I got for it said I 'never made it to him', which i'm assuming means i was hooked or something as opposed to being redirected. In short, I think Kirsche was killed to get rid of the safeguard skill and let the mafia team work properly.

Finally, I said i would be suspicious of Zero if Blitz flipped scum, and I still am. Sure, her first post may have disagreed with Blitz's questions, and actually started the wagon, but she then goes on later to say that some of these questions can help advance the game, and switches her vote to Eury without really explaining her own reasons all that much, just linking to some posts.

##Vote: Zerosabers

@Zerosabers, what specifically about the 2 posts you linked to made you think that Eury was scummier than Blitz? Do you have any reasons of your own as to why Eury was scum in your opinion?

[eclipse]

Yay, hydra request granted! Elie, don't forget to add me to the ISO list! Now, on to more important things. This is the overview post. Details will go into the second post.

- The only thing I'm getting from Blitz's lone post is that SSG is probably town, due to the fact that the answers to those questions could be spun as a scumread later. Slight townread on Eury based on that associative read, null on everyone else mentioned.

- Eury: tl;dr of your stances yesterday and today, I'm leaning town on you thanks to Blitz's flip, but I want to hear what YOU have to say, and I don't have the mental stamina to read through all those walls.

- Gaius: Is still posting, so he can explain himself.

- Gilgamesh: This seems like a hostile reaction to BBM's response. I disagree with a lot of stuff in here, which I'll get to in my next post.

- The vote switch by zerosabers onto Blitz is a hindsight read, which is normally why I don't put too much stock into them. However, I don't like this. A link to this would've been sufficient IMO. Since my biggest issue with her is a stylistic one, and her motives for voting hinge off of Eury (who I'd previously asked for a tl;dr of everything), I'm writing this slot off as null for the time being.

- Now to That Guy That Keeps Dying in The Hunger Games. Don't care for that bit about Life (I read Life's D1 as "tunneling Eury"), and the fact that his suspicion on Crysta should've carried over to Life as well. Is Life scum for this? It seems like there's a Eury townread in your posts. Please explain what this post means, because I can't make heads or tails of it. Like zero, my read on him hinges off of my own Eury read, since that's his biggest point of contribution (second is Blitz, but that's what the request in the previous sentence is for). . .wait, did you just claim for no reason?! If you're going to claim, please follow the eclipse School of Claims.

- Deal with another hydra, SB~! I can sort-of understand the D1 burnout, but now that there's a couple of flips, what are your reads?

- Prims: READ MY SECOND POST, IT'S REALLY IMPORTANT. Oh, and what's your read on Mitsuki now that there's a couple of flips?

- Not sure of what to make of Baldrick's early joke-double-voting-thingy. First thing that really caught my eye was this. Your scumread had responded, so does that mean that you thought that her response make her more likely to be town than Crysta (where your vote was)? What is your read on Corinthian? I see a lot of questions, but how are those answers helping you?

- Crysta, I know phoneposting sucks. Can you put the post number that you're replying to, so that I'll have a better time trying to figure out which Eury wall you're referring to? Here, she seems rather lukewarm about Blitz's alignment, which is odd given the amount of attention he'd been garnering. However, this is an excellent point regarding Izhuark. She's tunneling harder than a digger Lemming (as in, what's your reads on everyone else), but I don't feel like lynching her yet. I blame my gut.

- This makes me think that Life is town. Forcing someone to self-vote, no matter how obnoxious they are, is a bad move for a town persuader (said person's vote is locked for the day, and Life wasn't a viable wagon anyway), and an extremely scummy one otherwise. Before that, I was null on his slot. Like Crysta, he tunneled hard on Eury, and I really like to see the other reads, since I'm about to give him some material to work with.

- I don't mind BBM's listpost, because we're both starting in the same boat (sort of). But he'll get more attention later.

- First, SSG is a new guy. Second, he was the target of half of Blitz's questions. This makes me think he's town on associative read alone. His content is shaky, but that's what I'd expect out of a new player anyway. This sealed it, since he had a clear stance on both Eury/Blitz. I'd probably say this if Blitz flipped town, anyway.

- I'm out of energy, so Koneko/Mitsuki, Izhuark, and Refa will have to wait. I absolutely need to get the second half of this post out.

[Refa]

Mafia wouldn't know Kirsche was the Safeguard unless that was what Blitz was informed about. Kirsche wasn't particularly townie either, so either mafia fear killed him or they wanted to frame me (FMPOV), with the former being more likely.

Also lol D1 mafia roleblocker lynch. I'm cool taking out The3rdCorinthian today but I have some other impressions from Blitz's flip to post - the gist of it is that Gaius, zerosabers and Refa (!) aren't looking too hot after it.

Libel.

Dunno if I'll be able to make a content post but the gist of my other reads throughout the night was that Zerosabers' shift to Eurykins was pretty suspect (although less so than LG's because it was a sheep, which is less plausible as scum reacting to their buddies getting lynched), and Gilgamesh/3rd being the most likely to bus (although wouldn't lynch 3rd after that partial claim). BBM brought up a good point about Baldrick/SB, but I'm still scumreading Crysta (the flip isn't affecting my read here) so yeah. Also bothered by BBM for the sole purpose of including that snippet about Kirsche; this is because that's what I do as scum when I want to be all "Oh, look at me, I had this read about this person who died! Why would I bother doing that if I was going to kill them anyways?".

[eclipse]

First order of business:

Well well, we were right and Blitz turned out to be a scum member and a powerful one at that. Pity that he couldn't be active enough to defend himself at least, but oh well. So what is the next course of action? Simple, we investigate Blitz's vote wagon and look for any instances of bussing and try and look up some reads. Blitz is a very powerful role for the scum, so there is no way he would have gotten early bussed until things looked really hopeless for him. So let's analyze his vote wagon and see what we can find, shall we my lovelys?

Also, keep on the lookout for ANYONE and I mean anyone who tried to use the reasoning "Oh, he is likely to be scum because he is inactive" as their crutch argument because that is nothing more than a simple cop-out answer.

Town reads:

Zerosabers: She was the FIRST one to call Blitz out on his ridiculous, irrelevant questions and the FIRST one to vote on him. Why would a scum member, even newb scum target one of their own like that? It is my belief that in D1, the scum will do their best to do less interaction with each other. It wasn't as if he was a goon; he was a damn roleblocker! If not Zero, someone would have caught on to Blitz because as others have said, it isn't his meta and very unlike Town!Blitz to act. So congratulations, Ms. Zero, you are officially on my townie list.

Life: Blitz screwed himself over by talking to this hostile, aggressive, OC-loving, uninterested man. Like I said in the Zerosabers read, scum is unlikely to target each other in D1, and it seems obvious to me that Blitz chose to go for Life as he believed he would have been an easy target, and who could blame him when Life's 'hostile', approach does give off some scum vibes?

Mitsuki/Koneko: After Zerosabers's attack on Blitz, some people have ignored it and at that point when Kitsuki voted: Eury, Life and myself had more than one vote on our wagons with Eury having 4. Kitsuki was the SECOND vote on the wagon and Mitsuki being the experienced player she is would not be dumb enough to try and early bus a scum roleblocker.

Scum reads:

The3rdCortinthian:

http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=57522&p=40213129

As shown here by this post, he went to Blitz's defense and trying to justify his irrelevant questioning. If you REALLY studied Blitz's playstyle, then you should know that Town!Blitz doesn't act in such a manner. By the time he voted on Blitz's wagon, he was already the most likely lynch option, and to me makes it seems possible to be a bandwagon vote. Then he made some strange posts about wanting to switch wagons to Eury which Mitsuki called him out on like he was hoping that maybe Eury could get lynched instead, but then opted out. He tried to justify Blitz being scum due to him being inactive which is the simple scum cop-out answer.

http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=57522&page=16#entry4024354

And just look at this flip-flop that he did. Didn't you say that you didn't have a problem with Blitz's random questioning, that it was all part of his normal play? And now you want to say that his questioning DOES bother you? Oh please, he is just trying to bandwagon and make himself look good.

Null:

Eurykins: The funny thing by the time she voted, she had the bigger vote wagon. Now this is admittedly a weak argument that will get chewed up, but would she really have the gall to bandwagon on Blitz considering her predicament? Trying to vote on another bandwagon when you are the highest one doesn't seem likely for scum to do, especially her own OP scumbuddy. But eh, like I said, weak argument.

http://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=57522&page=9#entry4022250

Also, as shown by her wall post, she is scumreading 3rdCortinthian who is my biggest scum suspect. Assuming that the 3rd is scum, would Eury really point out her less obvious scumbuddy at D1?

##Vote: The 3rdCortinthian

I'd rather look at what the lynched said, as opposed to who was on the wagon. IMO, the latter's more potent during later days. This isn't what I meant about disagreement, though.

zero - She then wandered away from that read, which is why I'm iffy on her.

Life - Blitz is NOT an idiot. Life isn't an easy target, unless he literally stops playing the game.

Mitsuki/Koneko - will analyze them later.

Corinthian - The first sentence is a hindsight read, and I don't really care for those. The first (corrected) linked post is also the first content post by Corinthian, which I'll get to in a bit. I asked him what he meant by the second post, as I have no idea what he's trying to say. However, there's also a link that was missed between those two posts - in the first one, Corinthian mentions that Blitz's questions are random like that, but in the second one, it's the reason why Corinthian is scumreading Blitz.

FWIW, I hadn't decided on my read on Corinthian (since I really want an updated Eury post that isn't a novel), but after his latest post, I've got a slight townread on him.

Eurykins - It's called Not Me Over Me. In other words, if you're the second-biggest wagon, you put your vote on the biggest wagon to keep yourself alive.

---

Hey Prims!

I seem to have been redirected to Crysta last night! You'll be noticing the effects of this shortly but not on future nights when I idle so scum doesn't get a free voteblock!

You had two visitors last night!

- BBM

- Gilgamesh

Problem is, I'm not reading BBM as scum, so. . .

##Vote: Gilgamesh

I actually had you pinned as null until Prims said that. I don't automatically case people whose logic disagrees with mine, but combined with my night results, it's really weird. Your last mention of Prims was here, and it wasn't because you thought Prims was scum.

(dear hydra, deal with it, I'm going to put these night results to work)

[Crysta]

I seem to have been redirected to Crysta last night! You'll be noticing the effects of this shortly but not on future nights when I idle so scum doesn't get a free voteblock!

yep

##Vote: Crysta

post still incoming since i now have more to reply to but it will come before i go to bed

[eclipse]

. . .wait what.

Prims, just how many people can you target?

[Refa]

You had two visitors last night!

- BBM

- Gilgamesh

Neither of these people were scumreading Prims, which means one of them is scum (since they'd have no reason to redirect him as town)...which makes you town. Actually, that'd make Crysta town too. Neat. Gonna do some ISO's before I vote.

Okay, now some questions.

@Baldrick

- Who else is scum besides Crysta? Why?

@Gilgamesh

-You say that Blitz's role was very powerful for scum. What's your reasoning there?

-Wait, wasn't Mitsuki the first person to call out Blitz? If it was Zerosabers, then she's most likely town but I am willing to bet 50,000 Shin bucks that it was Mitsuki.

-What do you think about 3rd's partial claim, considering you're voting him?

-Why have you not analyzed me?????

@BBM

-Thought about it some more. Do you really think Scum!SB would not be on Blitz's wagon? I played with him in .Hack 2 and I'm like really confident that he'd be on Blitz's wagon (aren't you happy that you're being townread for something that would ordinarily be scummy, SB?).

-Okay, I'm townreading Prims too but it's not because of his Blitz vote (which is null for me). Prims busses harder than SB, why does voting Blitz of all things make him town?

-Wait, why is Zerosabers unmemorable? Like, I found her Eury vote unmemorable but not her actual content.

##Unvote

[Life]

I'm waiting for more people to post before I post my thoughts. Can't change my vote though.

[Refa]

Haha, just realized that's the second game in a row where someone watched my predicted N1 kill target and caught scum. Go me (not really game relevant but it makes me inconceivably happy).

Scum Game This Game

##Vote: BBM

PS Not even bothering analyzing BBM's post because if it's based on his observations as a non player, they won't match up with any of his posts.

[The3rdCorinthian]

@Gilgamesh

-You say that Blitz's role was very powerful for scum. What's your reasoning there?

-Wait, wasn't Mitsuki the first person to call out Blitz? If it was Zerosabers, then she's most likely town but I am willing to bet 50,000 Shin bucks that it was Mitsuki.

-What do you think about 3rd's partial claim, considering you're voting him?

-Why have you not analyzed me?????

Checked this up for you. Zero did indeed vote first, but Mitsuki had already voiced that she found Blitz's post weird. So it depends on what you mean by calling him out.

[Refa]

Town.

[The3rdCorinthian]

Aaanyway, I'm gonna get a shower, check emails, and read ISO's, so Ignore what it says in the bottom left, I'll not be here for a few minutes.

[Crysta]

It’s hard to get meaningful interactions when blitz flaked out :\

##vote: Crysta

Still happy with this, she talked about eury a lot didn’t really attempt to analyse her later content or the interaction with life. Calling Izhuark saying “don’t hammer blitz” defending him, while not taking note zero’s vote switch is a little strange as well. It seems like she was doing her best to keep the eury wagon alive without committing too much to it.

I'm gone for about 24 hours.

Izhuark did a lot more than just say 'don't hammer blitz'.

Zero did not defend Blitz. she wasn't willing to lynch him, but that's notably different. It's notably different in their iso. Ergo I'm not as bothered by it. If she continues to coast even now, I will have something to say.

Nothing about Eury's interactions with Refa or Life struck me as relevant to why I was voting her, nor were they particularly enlightening, so I didn't go into detail about them. Those posts involved her being mostly annoyed/irritated and lashing out - if they sounded defensive I might have mentioned it but they didn't. They did not seem alignment indicative.

Was not concerned about how the Eury wagon was growing or getting smaller; I don't think anything i was saying was going to sway anyone - I was explaining myself. Or trying to. Apparently I had middling success. Is that what you mean by "not committing too much to it"?

- Crysta, I know phoneposting sucks. Can you put the post number that you're replying to, so that I'll have a better time trying to figure out which Eury wall you're referring to? Here, she seems rather lukewarm about Blitz's alignment, which is odd given the amount of attention he'd been garnering. However, this is an excellent point regarding Izhuark. She's tunneling harder than a digger Lemming (as in, what's your reads on everyone else), but I don't feel like lynching her yet. I blame my gut.

My great wallpost wasn't done on the phone (not that masochistic) but yeah I'll try to make my posts less of a pain in the ass to digest. Thankfully for you it's not the wall posts I was bothered by: it was her first, second, and third post.

Other reads and stuff:

I agree with others that Corinthian sounds far too self-conscious of how his votes and arguments are being perceived even by townie standards. By newbie standards I dunno.

Gilgamesh's first post into the day sounds needlessly theatrical. We know who died; the commentary and recap was unnecessary and it seems like he's trying extra hard to appear like he's leading the scum hunt. This coupled with the night visit would have me vote there if could vote but nooooo.

Izzy still needs to elaborate, too. But he has the day. Still uneasy about Eury but I'll be around and hopefully she'll be, too.

[Crysta]

Wait, should elaborate: I will be around during 1 AM - 6 AM and in sporadic/useless fifteen minute intervals between them.

[Refa]

Scum Game This Game

I just realized those links were the same which is awkward. Fixed them.