Alice in Brexitland Mafia - Game Over

[Snike]

Fence post was referring to length, not wafflyness. My bad, it's now a hurdle-post.

[Arcanite]

IM going to sleep

which means by morning... it'll be 10 hours left-ish

I'm ready for more reading!

[Eurykins]

4 hours ago, Omega. said:

I don't do quote wall wars. So in the interest of not spending way more than I need/want formatting a bunch of things, read this as if each letter is representative of the quotes you pulled in order with numbers denoting your individual points within them to match yours.

A) 1. First off, mafia is WIFOM. Yes, I use WIFOM to make judgement calls all the time. I am indeed using your hypothetical quote for Refa. I used it specifically towards Refa because we have scummed together before and I was trying to get through to him that I wouldn't do a certain action and hope that if, he is town, he'd take into consideration our past history when analyzing my slot. You may have attempted to push a Prims wagon, but it still did not go through and I personally would not as scum.

2. The bolded part was just me saying "Your and BBM's Eurykins push resonated with me, it felt like you guys had found scum and blown it up for the thread to see." The BBM push was bad because he is one of the last people we should lynch today. There's Prims. There's Bard. There's Eury. There's Snike. I'd lynch all of these people before BBM. I don't think ANYONE in the game wants BBM as the lynch today. So because of that, I made a call that it's likelier for scum to push a BBM lynch than a townie. I do not care if you think the second bolded line is "really bad" or "really weird." Her BBM case is bad because he's one of the last people we should. I talked about the Refa ITP thing before; you can go back and find it but I'm not rehashing a point of discussion I've moved past and currently am not focusing on.

3. Yep, I wanted to stop the discussion. I had had enough discourse with Refa and we were reaching the point of diminishing returns; I also realized that it was pointless because I was not super confident in him being ITP and continuing to talk about it would not benefit anyone and just cause more confusion as you've demonstrated by bringing it up again.

B) That entire first paragraph is analysis of Bard/Refa. Bard being scum is dependent on Refa being town, which is an assumption I am not ready to make. I'll grant that I'd lynch Bard before Refa, though. Bard's in the scumpool; I just haven't pushed him for a lynch yet. If YOU perceive my Bard reasoning being better than mine for Prims/Eury,, then that's your opinion. I will just remind you that YOU yourself also have Prims on your list for similar reasons, and Eury's posts have earned her a wagon. 

C) I never said "Eh let's leave it to chance." In that same post, I expressed a sentiment of "I'm going to vote Prims, and I'm sure there will be more than enough content to analyze Eury with later." Those two statements are different.

D) I haven't played here since last year. I have probably played like 5 games here. If vigs shoot inactive players here, I did not know, nor would I base my playing off of it. I explained the Bard thing. I make associative reads regardless of alignment, and I stand by Bard/Refa being unaligned. It's a bit ridiculous that you're giving me flak for "lining up lynches" on two slots that YOU agree are scummy. I wanted Prims shot because I have stated I want his flip multiple times. Bard and Walrein are good shots too, but that's why I wanted Prims vigged. And what are you saying with that last sentence? I'm just throwing out a suggestion of vigging Prims if he lives in case the vig listens to me; I'm not overthinking about how hard it is to get him lynched, or vigged, or whatever.

Once again, people are clearly not reading my posts/votes but okay.

When my vote for BBM was made, it was more of a pressure/informational vote than finding him scummier than Refa. He was never my top scum read, he was never someone I was pushing for an actual lynch (though I would be fine with consolidation if people wanted to), etc. The simple fact was the fact that REFA ALREADY HAD 5+ VOTES EARLY DAY 1 AND I WANTED PRESSURE AND MORE INFO ELSEWHERE AT THE TIME. IS THIS CLEAR FINALLY?

AKA. The "Case" and oh-my-god-I-Want-BBM-lynched-today thing was hella moot from the moment that he was NEVER my biggest scum read since the game has started. EVER. I may have disliked/distrusted his claim and some of his gameplay, but he was behind (and remains so) Refa, and at this point Omega.

> This is a reason why I find Omega's casing and being OK with my lynch disagreeable. 

3 hours ago, Omega. said:

1. Ok.

2. Town are likelier to make bad pushes, but scum HAVE to make bad pushes. I'm saying that Eury's push is ESPECIALLY bad, because she, out of everyone else in the game, was the only to suggest a BBM lynch. So I either have to say "Town making a bad push, and she's the only one doing so" or "She's scum, because most of us agree BBM is a horrible play." The latter is likelier to me. That said, if you have some information/experience with Eury that you think is relevant to reading her properly, what is it? As for potentially no lynching, well, we either have to throw our hands up leaving Prims alone and seeing what happens in this game to potentially kill Prims in other ways or we just do it twice. In general, I'm in favor of making a decision to put things in their own hands than leaving things to chance.

3. I get where you're coming from, but I don't think one has to be super confident over one scumread over the other on D1 with 4 scum running around, and this ignores the fact that I put more thought into the two and came out with confidence on Prims. Though if you're saying I should be super confident on one scum read over another at any point in the game, I think that's rather extreme and unreasonable, and generally not how townies are.

Once again, refer to the aforementioned comments. And if meta is also another thing to consider when it comes to gameplay, I will call into question the amount of times I've called people out for being scummy or scumread people that no one else has in games consistently, been given shit for, but still persisited. I personally don't care if people don't agree with my casing of BBM. Maybe I am barking up the wrong tree. Point is, I have other reads, which I have already pushed forth and am willing to support. I will not back down on a prior case, however, no matter how wrong that SEEMS to other people who may be townreading that specific person. 

Unless someone proves to me otherwise, I run with the concept of "Scummy until proven otherwise." 

3 hours ago, Omega. said:

When I say scum have to make bad pushes, I generally mean participation in shitty mislynches, not just strictly creating unique pushes on town. But anyways, why argue theory? If Eury is scum, she IS making a bad push which is what we're arguing here. Now, you may not think the BBM push was bad, but I named 4 people off the top of my head I'd rather go before him just now. So from my eyes, it's bad. I don't have BBM as conftown, he's just nowhere near a priority or worth putting effort into digging into more, we have nulls and nullscums to press.

I don't think Prims is lying actually. I'm not one to clear people off of claims outside of like masons. Also, the deathproof thing just looks worse. Towns usually have docs. So either town has a doc AND a deathproof player (fucking weird), Prims is town's de facto protective (fucking weird) or Prims is just scum. And no, I'm not saying I'm just going to come into D2 and say let's lynch Prims, there's many things that can happen in the meantime. This is like when Refa speculated that I might push him as ITP for the rest of the game; you guys are assuming I'm going to do X or Y before enough time has even passed with which to make a judgement.

That said, your point with regards to Scum!Prims not needing to talk about an extra ability, eh, I dunno. He said it's a shitty ability, so he could just say that regardless of alignment.

Pray tell, given the above statement, how am I pushing BBM any harder than say REFA or Omega (the former of which I even got into a heated moment with) yourself?

1 hour ago, Omega. said:

Good post, I don't want to lynch Refa anymore. His cautiousness and confusion here is a good look.

I'll lynch Bard, Walrein, Eurykins, or Prims. I won't cry over Eury or Prims, but I'm feeling better about Bard or even Walrein. Yeah I know Walrein hasn't posted, but him falling off completely gives me a really bad feeling and if there's any scum on that earlier Prims wagon it's him. That said, Eury is wrong on me, and I don't think Refa or BBM are good plays either, I'm not crazy about her scumlist but I haven't played with her before and people I'd rather stay alive (Via/Shinori) have said she's town so she could just be wrong. I think Bard or Walrein are our best bets, I just realized Bard has kept his vote on Shinori all game and with Refa off the table for me Bard shoots up. At least Eury or Prims have tried/pretended to hunt scum.

What is this garble of "won't cry over, wrong on me, etc."? Waffling on reads/lists and really doesn't help much at all.

1 hour ago, Omega. said:

Yeah okay, slappin' Refa on the Should Live list. With this, his early Prims wagon reaction (opposing it and even making reads off it instead of just letting it roll or jumping on), and now giving leeway to a slot no one knows anything about as opposed to shitting on it, I'm feeling way better about him.

I mean, he could still be scum, in which case fuck me, I guess. But yeah, he is looking good to me at the moment which is important because he's been floating around null/scum for most players.

> Feels better about Refa in the bolded.

> Still states, "HE COULD BE SCUM". Good fallback here in case Refa flipped and utilized for "Hey, I didn't fully think Refa was in the clear guys!"

If I were to be truthful, Omega's posts... got worse? He was responsive, but in a bad way. Also, casing and priorities still sucked, and had little to no merit. I'm okay with the vote remaining on him.

*This was mostly done as per request of Shino's question about Omega's more current posts.

[Eurykins]

On 3/5/2018 at 4:15 AM, Eurykins said:

TL;DR Verdict from above posts (so I can sleep): Refa is the loudest magikarp in the group; BBM is flailing next to him, moreso due to the misreading of everything and a lot of questionable posting (With Refa's wagon having sufficient pressure to hopefully garner more information/response, I will apply some on the latter slot since I have a lot I want to hear back from him). Shinori and Prims and Propeller are in an okay boat, but wanting to see and hear more from them. The rest should be more active and contribute thoughts/posts when they can.

[Refa = BBM >>>>> Prims/Shinori/Prop = Everyone else]

##Vote: BBM 

This is literally what I had posted when I made the BBM vote, before things got crazy between me and Refa (in which case I was busy arguing about him OMGUS me and such, and was doing counterpoints, so during that time I did not vote swap. Maybe that's why people are confused, but this is what I had actually come to conclusion wise of my initial posting.

This is why I do not understand most of the pushes against me because of BBM casing/wanting him be lynched/whatever.

[Arcanite]

I know I said im Sleepy but more and more Omega is looking like

Spoiler

Now im really going to bed

[Percivalé]

19 minutes ago, Arcanite said:

I have to agree Omega is uh.... I don't even know what to say
I don't think we should lynch them cause even though the things they say kinda look odd, I kinda feel like they're town and their play-style is just made that way
The constant vote switching is dumb

(words)

##Vote: Omega

what?

[Shinori]

What Via quoted stands out but the only thing I can think of is the fact that it appears they were posting whatever they got in their head as they were reading.  You can see when they mention the fact they were on page 15 and then page 16 stuff changed their mind.

Still is weird.

[Percivalé]

you accuse omega of waffling but your post in which you vote him is the definition of waffling. what

[Percivalé]

I mean yeah I guess so @ shinori 

[Shinori]

Via, what do you feel about Arcanite?  Do you feel that last post was scummy?  If so how does that affect your Omega read?

[Eurykins]

32 minutes ago, WeaponsofMassConstruction said:

@Eurykins, what do you consider to be town tells?

I look at the quality of what they bring to the table. 

Doesn't have to be massive amount of posts, wallposts, or the most charismatic persona pushing forth a case in the most flowery/appealing manner.

Actual attempts to try, and legitimately attempting to figure things out though, are decent key signs. Also sometimes certain reactions (this depends a little on the person in question though) can offer some insight, but limited (Sometimes only becomes more clear under pressure or asking the right questions).

28 minutes ago, WeaponsofMassConstruction said:

Would you acknowledge then that you might do things as town that other town would justifiably find scummy?

I mean, hell, I've tunneled massively on people. I've had massive scumreads/wall reads before that have included 3/4 of the entire playerbase of a game (people like Prims can validate/verify, as could BBM/Shinori/other older players) because I get caught up sometimes on BAD GAMEPLAY that comes off as SCUMMY to me than anything. Yeah, it happens, and sometimes me bulldozing through people and being headstrong and determined about my cases can read off about that.

But on the other hand, I do my best to be clear about why I'm chasing them down. The whole BBM nonsense annoyed me, because it's most of what people are slinging at me currently when it's simply not the truth. But the fact that most are ignoring the simple facts that I'm trying to clarify made me want to just ignore them at that point and move on. Arguing against a crowd who make themselves seemingly blind or deaf to the simple truth of the matter won't miraculously begin to listen even if you plead with them a thousand times over.

Same concept with me arguing with Refa- I just ended up going offline/to bed after a while of it because it just didn't do anyone any good to keep posting against each other when nothing was being done in the end. Nothing changed, so just time to pick up and move on to bigger fish to fry. Though he still would be an OK catch today if people still wanted to reel him in. :)

[Percivalé]

I'm not very sure what I feel about arcanite. and I'm not very sure how I feel about omega anymore either.

##unvote
##vote: bard

I'd rather lynch this. I don't want to settle for eury. I don't know if I'm going to be here for deadline but I'll give a better look into what I feel about the above two when I get back.

[Shinori]

If I can't convince more people to vote Omega over the next few hours I'll probably swap to bard tonight if not tomorrow morning.

[Shinori]

I'm still waiting for BBM and Weapons though to read my Omega case.

@BBM @WeaponsofMassConstruction

[WeaponsofMassConstruction]

Ok, I'm preeetttty sure Eury is town and this wagon should die. Also lol at Prims hopping on the biggest competing wagon at the time and accusing Eury of hopping on the biggest competing wagon at the time.

[Snike]

Still reading. I'm coming to the realization that this is going to take forever if I go entirely point for point. Can people yell at me with stuff in the now so I can respond to that in medias res? I think it'll help cut down on wall posts and I (think) I work better like that. Yeah it's kind of lazy but otherwise I'm going to die from a thousand cuts while I write the post.

Couple things:

On voting before casing: That's personal preference, and the vote served another purpose. I still think there's fire to the page 7 bit.

I think I see where you're getting at on page 2 but  I don't see a problem with waiting on the vote.

On Omega: The vote swaps bothered me to the point of my calling it katy perry like with the vote thriftiness. Can you talk about this Shinori? I'm not unreceptive to the case but I'm still reading it. And then there's the vote on me which is weird because I don't think I was a wagon at that point. Sell me.

Diving into the wall.

[Shinori]

I'm going to go play some PoE with Eury before she ends up going to bed since she works tomorrow and I don't.  If you around in a couple of hours(I assume you might not be) I will be more than glad to sell my Omega case in a better fashion then I already have.  I'll try to get a neat little compilation for it.  I'll work on this post tonight no matter what so if you end up leaving before I post it check back tomorrow morning or something and it should be up.

This should happen bar nothing happens like I randomly get struck with the worst mood int he world or something.

[Snike]

I'll try to hang around but I may move to phone posting because I kinda want to start Radiant Historia on my 3ds.

If I am not around, I'll look forward to it.

[BBM]

ok guys back now for about an hour; I've skimmed the past few pages but I'll read them more and respond in detail to stuff. before that though just some rolespec cuz of some questions:

i think people don't understand how important lynch control is. in a 9/3/1 game where the mayor is mafia that means the mafia controls 4 votes in a 13p game. Minimum to lynch is 5 so that means they could almost by themselves force a certain lynch. they probably wouldn't tie themselves to each other like that, but they dont need to cuz of how uncertain people are. and if they needed to to avoid a scum lynch they could. and if the scum mayor is a good player, like sb in antihero, their vote counting double + them having good persuasive capabilities means whoever they want to get lynched is going to get lynched p much every day. in a 9/3/1 game this would snowball really fast. i'm 95% sure snike is not mafia. i could conceive an ITP mayor but nothing about his play suggests that and ITP hunting at this point is lame.

prims is also town imo cuz of similar snowballing reasons. i really don't think this would happen cuz town needs the numbers to work out so well. i briefly considered that prims was totally BSing cuz he has the guts to do that, but if that was the case he wouldn't say "i get a small role if i lose my DPV" bc it would incentivize town to lynch him to test his role.

next posts will be about content

[Shinori]

16 minutes ago, Snike said:

I'll try to hang around but I may move to phone posting because I kinda want to start Radiant Historia on my 3ds.

If I am not around, I'll look forward to it.

Side note tell me how that game is cause I've been heavily debating on buying it.

[Prims]

1 hour ago, Eurykins said:

Define "genuine scumhunting", if you would please.

I've asked plenty of questions, garnered multiple responses, and have questioned plenty of other cases/notions. As of a result, I've procured multiple rather steady reads, none of which have been without merit.

The fact that Omega became increasingly confused, vote swapped multiple times for shitty reasons, and overall had zero meat behind them = Bad and scummy gameplay that confused the fuck out of me. I didn't think I'd have to type it out quite like that, but I suppose most people couldn't put two-and-two together or read between the lines of my post?

^ is the actual reason why I voted, not even due to whatever popularity HE acquired during the time of me posting. Which, if you notice the timeframe, is during the time where most of the Omega cases even began. During my process of voting when I hadn't even seen the other latest posts (including that of your own claim). So saying that I pushed him as a counterwagon, when at the time that I started with the post and already chunked/quoted in all of the posts I was responding to he wasn't even that prominently up there, seems moot to me.

Genuine scumhunting is looking for players who are playing in a way that supports the scum win condition. "Player X's posting confused me" is on you, not that particular player. Is it really difficult for you to see why a townie might swap votes in that situation (eg rethinking the game they are participating in)? When I read your post where you vote Omega it looked like a list of nitpicks at his posts followed by a voteswap onto somebody who's playing "weirdly" but not necessarily scummy. Overall I suspect because Omega's playstyle isn't necessarily wordy you're using that for an easy case. I don't understand what your threshold is for deciding somebody being weird is scummy instead of somebody you want ask for elaboration on their post.

Fair enough if true re: the counterwagon, but it doesn't really make me want to ease up on you overall.

I'm fairly confident Eury/Walrein are both scum, Walrein is a pretty safe bet now that he's flaked since it matches his play last game (throw out a short burst of thought process posting then disappear because he doesn't like posting as scum). Bard is a decent choice for the last member, maybe throw Weapons back in because his recent post heckling me annoyed me and completely ignored the context my previous posts before my switch to Eury as well as the context of my wagon (it's impossible for me to be lynched as is so scum!me wouldn't even need survivalist behavior like that). Actually Weapons might be a good pick for ITP since his scumhunting is reasonable now but it would explain the earlier self-consciousness. I wouldn't lynch him over Eury/Walrein/Bard, but if we get rid of the scumteam and he's still around then hmmm. Nobody else seems like an appealing lynch, with Arcanite and Refa as my weakest reads overall and Rapier's alignment being a crapshoot. Snike is realistically probably not scum if his mayor indeed doesn't turn off in *YLO.

@Rapier if you come back and sheep me on the Eury wagon and she gets lynched she won't be around to post on future days which means you'll have less to read \o/

By the way, I'm extremely skeptical that the Omega wagon is even going to take off beyond 3 votes right now (I personally will never support it) so I wish people on it would make it clear which of Bard and Eury they'd rather see go, since that's what I predict the wagons at the end of the day coming down to barring a Walrein turbo lmao. (note: I won't support a Walrein turbo this late even though I think he is scum, as there are future day phases to lynch him on)

[Shinori]

That's interesting considering multiple people have voiced they'd be fine with an omega lynch potentially. Myself, eury, arcanite, Potentially Via, and I will try my hardest to convince Snike later today.

I can't help but get pissed that you ignored my questions.  You keep basically saying that you wouldn't lynch Omega and his play is more townie like but when I ask you questions related to this you don't even respond at all?  You have to give me reasons, I don't even understand your thought process as to how Omega is town and it baffles me.

Also saying you wish the people on it would state who they would rather see go out of Bard/Eury is dumb considering people have already done so.

Via has stated Bard > Eury at the moment.

I've stated Bard > Eury.

Eury wouldn't vote themselves.

So the only person left is Arcanite?  He might be leaning Eury > Bard but I'm also not positive on it.

I'm currently sitting at Omega > Refa > Bard personally.  I've I'm fine lynching Bard but people have to also realize if he doesn't come back by the end of the day phase it's basically lynching someone that has done nothing and we won't get much out of it from associative reads.

The Walrein argument is also poor imo.  Comparing his play in the current game to his play in the past game is null imo because he was more active in the last game than this one.  His posts also read differently, vastly so.  Although I guess it's fairly hard to judge based off of the few posts he's made.  You also comment on Eury's Omega case but ignore my Omega case.  Please answer my questions.  Just in case you forgot them or missed them:

Quote

Why is Omega's responses to me, which is what most of his content has been in the last few pages, and his willingness to lynch inactives or deathproof someone who's invested in the outcome of the day TOWN sided?  Mostly all of his lynch targets are people who are inactive who provide little to no info(Prims).

@Prims 

[Prims]

That's only three votes, which isn't enough to get him lynched over the massive support for the Eury wagon or the Bard wagon (which Via prefers so idk why you're counting him). Forgive me if I don't want to waste breath defending a player I don't expect to get lynched today in an already spammy game.

Since you asked, though, I don't agree Omega's willingness to lynch inactives or a deathproof claim is scummy when he's not actually pushing them over stronger scumreads (Bard and Eury). Obviously they're suboptimal lynches compared to major wagons and he seems to be treating them as such, which is reasonable to me, but the inactives do need to be dealt with eventually so I don't blame him for wanting to get rid of them. Testing my deathproof claim is also reasonable if you think I'm scum as something would have to be done about it eventually (and scum!me could just be lying). Obviously from my own PoV I'd rather lynch somebody who could actually flip scum than waste today NLing to test my claim + give me a low power ability, but I don't blame somebody who suspects me for going about it that way.

Omega being around to do a lot of hustling regarding wagons today and constantly rethinking his priorities shows investment in the game and outcome of the lynch, when scum doesn't care who gets lynched. I don't read it as waffling in this context. He's a town read for me for similar reasons as BBM is.

[BBM]

4 hours ago, Eurykins said:

If he didn't post his reasoning behind his initial prims vote, and then dropped another Prims vote without explanation, how is this ok? What makes him forgetting to list the initial reasoning mean that someone can post a second vote on that target without once again saying anything? Don't quite understand the handwaving here.

Also, in a nutshell: Scum exist to scramble and confuse and derail townside as much as possible. If someone is skewing cases, or thoughts, or misrepping, then people are being fed biased and misinformed information. Things purposely manipulated to purposefully funnel interest and focus onto their choice of people. Manipulation of information in cases and reading people is one of the biggest and scummiest things that can exist in the Mafia realm, and is the strongest thing next to actual power roles to affect the overall flow of the game. So I wouldn't say that the oversight of misleading/misrepping information in itself doesn't have scum intent painted within it. 

I'm not handwaving anything? I just didn't understand what he was doing, which is why I commented on it.

this second paragraph is a paragraph of theory on why scum have the incentive to purposely misrep, responding to me saying you were only talking about theory and there was no grounding in actual events other than to say that I'd done it several times. like you never at any point look at those instances to see whether it made sense for me as scum to misrep something in that situation.

not going to directly quote-reply to anything else about me, but your characterization of my play as a whole is wrong. it's frustrating that you put such an emphasis on reading correctly while totally ignoring some posts. it's quite obvious that I think bard is scummy; I have several posts where I say I dislike his posts and that I have a suspicion on him, I put him in a scumteam guess that I made, and I posted a bard case that you quoted. I'm pointing out negative parts of arcanite's play bc he's doing things that don't satisfy me, but I'm not directly scumreading him atm. i'm just questioning him and pushing him to try and get a better read on his play. same with omega but I'm a little more suspicious of him bc I hold him to a higher standard of play.

I haven't sheeped refa in any place except on omega. it's definitely not a pattern. there have been times where we've had similar opinions, like both of us voting you, but I voted you like 2 minutes after he voted you. the post was in progress before he said anything but you can decide for yourself if I could have made that post in two minutes after seeing refa's post

the rest of eury's reads in the big wallpost don't impress me very much. it's just a lot of "null leaning ___" and even the only actual strong scumread feels very surface-level, like "hey he's not really explaining much must be SCUM". also, if she didn't give any vote priorities or alignment summary at the end, I would think that she would still be voting me on the fencesitting and the sheeping and whatnot. that being said i don't agree with prims that this seems motivated as a counterwagon vote bc she also mentioned prims high up in her prio list and I think prims would have made more sense as a counterwagon vote. i think she's just voting omega bc she got lots of bad flak for the vote against me.

also her defence that she found me less suspicious than Refa is disingenuous. she did vote me over Refa cuz Refa already had a lot of pressure at the time, but she found us both equally suspicious, marked by the = sign.

still good with this lynch!! omega stuff in next post cuz this one is getting long but spoilers I don't want to lynch him

[BBM]

anyways I agree with most of shinori's points about omega's posts and the lack of detail and flip-flopping as being scummy things. HOWEVER I also feel that this is his playstyle and that it's not different from his baseline. i see his playstyle as being somewhat similar to via's in that they both go strongly off gut and what they post in-thread sometimes short-circuits past their reasoning for it in their head. but with via we've played with him for a long time and have a baseline to compare to and we don't have as much of one for omega. i also thought he reacted well to the pressure against him by shinori. i wouldn't lynch this slot today; I think his alignment will become a lot clearer with interactions.

would go eury > bard > omega and omega is just there for completion.

i have to go now, but I'll be probably be back tonight and if not i'll be around mostly all day tomorrow until phase end