We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[EvanManManMan]

29 minutes ago, Iris said:

Day 4.11 - Votals
Omega. (6): Killthestory, Makaze, via, Baldrick
Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy (2): Alette, EvanManManMan
athena_57 (1): Refa, Omega.
Walrein (1): Fable

Not Voting: athena_57, Beru, Snike + SatsumaFSoySoy, Walrein

You have ~54.75 hours left in the day. With 13 alive, it takes 5 to lynch and 9 to hammer.

@Iris you forgot to change the numbers here. Only the votes

[Makaze]

29 minutes ago, Omega. said:

I just forgot. When I think of self-delayed/disruptive roles, I usually don't think of how kills interact with them and instead think of how other actions interfere. From my site, kills are almost never tampered with and I didn't really think about that here.

Not even wolfy regardless and the logic still stands. If I get killed, sure I live another day, but I still die eventually, hopefully before endgame.

Marth outing that part of his role is dumb. That said, I like how you're trying to come at me for things Marth have done and how what I have done/said are different, when you complained about people pulling that on you earlier with zeus.

Actually on second thought I don't think he is telling the truth about "forgetting" the NK comment.

He didn't realize that Marth had claimed that part.

@Baldrick

You seemed to be considering a world where this was the case. Does this make him look better or worse? I am too close to this to actually read it atp

2 minutes ago, Omega. said:

Regarding the red herring, I'd say look at this setup: https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php?/topic/81445-alice-in-brexitland-mafia-confirmation/

There are a bunch of doctors, a watcher, etc. I've only played one game by them, but I'd say the setup shows they have a penchant to confuse village by putting in roles that share certain characteristics just to confuse the village if they try to massclaim and/or win on rolespec. 

Regarding Snike, eh, I'm leaning no at the moment. I was reading him V earlier. I just want more from athena/Walrein primarily then village can make a decision. Regarding ITP kills, the people I listed are the only ones I'd kill as either mafia/ITP.

Ok I'm really out for a while now, I'll be here tonight briefly but more tomorrow night cuz I'm busy AF today.

I don't see a world where you claim self-delayer and self-watcher as town, though. its terribad in a game with an itp

[Makaze]

5 minutes ago, Omega. said:

I don't know, maybe someone in my pool. I say just lynch the individually wolfiest player(s) and hope for the best. I hate ITP hunting and just stick to lynching wolfy people.

Really out now.

this is beginning to look real

but i think Omega is the type of power wolf (or itp) he is claiming me to be so I do not want to be pocketed by intelligent responses

actions speak louder than words

[EvanManManMan]

17 minutes ago, Omega. said:

Forgetting role details isn't a slip. People tried to say the same shit with Bartozio and Nightmare. How did those work out again?

This. I misread my role as well. Pushing Omega for misreading his RC would also involve pushing me for similar reasons. This is completely ignoring the previous examples of those who did this flipping town as well.

[Makaze]

Like claiming it at all is very bad

i do not see a world where marth doing this is good for the town

think about it. as town, marth has every reason to never claim

invite the nk

and claim his watcher result

 

this slot has to be itp

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, EvanManManMan said:

This. I misread my role as well. Pushing Omega for misreading his RC would also involve pushing me for similar reasons. This is completely ignoring the previous examples of those who did this flipping town as well.

i mean yes i am genuinely believing it

but think about what I just said (post above)

[EvanManManMan]

16 minutes ago, Makaze said:

this is a bad post

just saying

That's my genuine thought process. If you're asking specifically for a name then I guess Walrein because I have no reason to think otherwise. Beru is being bad by not giving content so I wouldn't eliminate them. You also seem to be convinced that Snike should be lynched today despite having very wishy washy thoughts and not voting them so you are a candidate as well.

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, EvanManManMan said:

That's my genuine thought process. If you're asking specifically for a name then I guess Walrein because I have no reason to think otherwise. Beru is being bad by not giving content so I wouldn't eliminate them. You also seem to be convinced that Snike should be lynched today despite having very wishy washy thoughts and not voting them so you are a candidate as well.

technically i was hoping there was a vig to explain what is happening and they could be on Snike

but forgoing that i think lowering kill power is more important

lynching snike makes the most sense for solving

i am willing to go with my confirmed village if they prefer to lynch mafia, but we will 100% not see a kill within this PoE if omega is itp

hes not that stupid

[Makaze]

Realistically I think that Walrein is not solving the game

they're just town and nothing can sway me on that

lynching there also does not help solve the game in any way

vigging them would be acceptable if there were no better targets, so you'd be fine to shoot there if you had bet correctly

another potential good point for leaving omega is it gives you more chances to predict and a better vig kill

and there are no protectives left

so id like to hear who you'd vig before that happens

Edited April 22, 2018 by Makaze
pronouns

[Makaze]

@Killthestory

care to comment on Omega's recent content and how you read it?

[EvanManManMan]

3 minutes ago, Makaze said:

Realistically I think that Walrein is not solving the game

hes just town and nothing can sway me on that

lynching there also does not help solve the game in any way

vigging him would be acceptable if there were no better targets, so you'd be fine to shoot there if you had bet correctly

another potential good point for leaving omega is it gives you more chances to predict and a better vig kill

and there are no protectives left

so id like to hear who you'd vig before that happens

It was stated that when a faction is eliminated it is announced

If Snike is the last mafia I would shoot Omega

If Snike is mafia and mafia still remains I would shoot Walrein

If Snike is ITP then I still probably shoot Walrein

If Snike is town I'm shooting you.

[Makaze]

12 minutes ago, Makaze said:

Like claiming it at all is very bad

i do not see a world where marth doing this is good for the town

think about it. as town, marth has every reason to never claim

invite the nk

and claim his watcher result

 

this slot has to be itp

i just want to point out how ridiculous it is that no one caught this

including me

this claim is patently anti-town

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, EvanManManMan said:

It was stated that when a faction is eliminated it is announced

If Snike is the last mafia I would shoot Omega

If Snike is mafia and mafia still remains I would shoot Walrein

If Snike is ITP then I still probably shoot Walrein

If Snike is town I'm shooting you.

Fair.

Your shot on Omega would be delayed though

EvilManManMan is back to EvanManManMan

[Makaze]

I take back what I said

that logic is perfect and theres no way you would make it as mafia

same argument as me re: restrictive PoE and clear objectives

[EvanManManMan]

13 minutes ago, Makaze said:

I take back what I said

that logic is perfect and theres no way you would make it as mafia

same argument as me re: restrictive PoE and clear objectives

What are you taking back?

[Makaze]

Just now, EvanManManMan said:

What are you taking back?

My read of that post being bad. It didn't overrule the role reasoning and other stuff but I called out the ping because it pinged me. I think it was just word choice now. You can't post that kind of list as Mafia.

[Makaze]

Waiting on @athena_57 more than anyone

[Makaze]

If you haven't noticed my paranoia has reached god levels with that Arc lynch

Going to hard veto myself and say that I am sticking to my reads until the flip.

Omega/Snike (Kill ITP strategically?) > Kirsche/Athena (depending on his flip. if snike is town athena looks worse. if snike is scum kirsche does)

i was so shook by that weapons post that i argued with the mods about death godfather

i am never trusting his slot again, vig every time

[Makaze]

Based on the known powers of this town (incredibly weak) and the known powers of the scum

I believe we are in a 4/1/17 game, and snike is the last one

so im confident

[Makaze]

In particular, mafia had shinori

shinori had not only his own personal strongman kill

but any person he gave an item to could be strongman'd at once. he was mafia strongman plus unstoppable arsonist

that is way too much kp for a 5 man team, even with an itp

[Makaze]

On that note anyone who ever shaded Shinori should be hardclear, especially because all of the flipped scum townread him, and they killed,, janitored and shaded BBM in thread the instant he cased Shinori

I think the only person who did that was BBM and Omega

And that just means Omega is not mafia, which we know

gg

[Makaze]

On 4/11/2018 at 4:02 AM, Walrein said:

for future reference: my pronouns are they/them (no worries, those of you who didn't realize this)

really like refa's read on weapons

via/eclipse solidifying my townreads on them

nate's intro post is really thin and i haven't decided if it's disinterested town after a prod or disinterested scum in general. i do get decent tonal vibes from his "sheep me" post

agree that refa feels more detached from usual but like... i really like his reads. if he isn't town i'll be sad :(

having trouble getting a bead on junko/kirsche/shinori. hopefully will get to directly interact with them at some point

zeus has balls if he's mafia. athena's posting got... better? maybe? i need to reread it. weapons could be scum (definitely sheeping refa's read here lmao)

think i'm still hovering around a very weak townlean on bbm. another slot i need to reread.

fable read hasn't changed since my last post

everyone else needs to post more

Been searching all posts that mention Shinori and this came up

this post looks very bad on Walrein

@Refa

found some evidence. this is scum walrein, based on their weird questioning of their own athena read

and they never go on to directly interact with ANY of the three people

still looking

if i am actually wrong about them i am going to apologize to everyone, i am very sorry for wasting your time

Edited April 22, 2018 by Makaze
pronouns

[Refa]

3 hours ago, Omega. said:

I'm asking you because you've seen me wolf here before.

Do you think I ever kill Shinori, Kaoz, or Mackc? LMFAO! I would have killed you or Fable without question, literally nobody else.

I don't actually think you're scum.  Also sorry if I didn't answer any questions directed at me, I had to go through like 50 posts.

31 minutes ago, Makaze said:

On that note anyone who ever shaded Shinori should be hardclear, especially because all of the flipped scum townread him, and they killed,, janitored and shaded BBM in thread the instant he cased Shinori

I think the only person who did that was BBM and Omega

I cased Shinori in my post where I reread the entire game, then forgot to respond to his defenses gg.

19 minutes ago, Makaze said:

Been searching all posts that mention Shinori and this came up

this post looks very bad on Walrein

@Refa

found some evidence. this is scum walrein, based on his weird questioning of his own athena read

and he never goes on to directly interact with ANY of the three people

Agreed.

[Makaze]

On 4/9/2018 at 9:29 PM, Walrein said:

##Vote: Refa no u

hot take: from a setup spec standpoint i think the hydra slot is more likely to be town than scum

either pocket on snike or w/w pre-remptive defense

On 4/10/2018 at 3:28 AM, Walrein said:

i'm not considering scum/town hydra an option barring in-game circumstances pointing to that as likely; the fact that they were explicitly confirmed as the same alignment/role (basically the same slot) would make such a twist INCREDIBLY bastard and i'd probably kill sb myself

@BBM i was, in fact, primarily referring to elie; his "you fail to consider a lot, sir!" followed by... not actually mentioning what i (in his eyes) failed to consider was pretty frustrating

@athena_57 i think i can help with the endeavor you strive for

##Unvote

##Vote: athena_57

 

On 4/10/2018 at 3:29 AM, Walrein said:

that's not a joke vote, by the way. brownie points to the first person to figure out the reasoning behind it.

walrein/athena never w/w

On 4/9/2018 at 9:35 PM, Walrein said:

it boils down to the fact that i can think of a lot more balance-related reasons to compress a townslot than to compress a scum slot

they're responding to jb here. literally the only interaction they have with jb, where jb asks them why they townread it based on meta.

i think this makes snike/walrein/jb look very possible

On 4/10/2018 at 12:45 PM, Walrein said:

this post feels overexplainy

need a temp check is athena always overexplainy or am i onto something 

more athena shading

On 4/10/2018 at 1:06 PM, Walrein said:

that said the fact that he's new dilutes the read a bit because it's also a new player thing to do

shrug emoji

waffles only very slightly at meta

doesn't change vote

On 4/11/2018 at 1:46 AM, Walrein said:

i have the mildest of townleans on fable rn

if nothing else he's never the d1 lynch here

the way they emphasized here plays into their prepared rhetoric style from the game Refa linked. this isn't a genuine read. they're playing it up

On 4/11/2018 at 4:02 AM, Walrein said:

for future reference: my pronouns are they/them (no worries, those of you who didn't realize this)

really like refa's read on weapons

via/eclipse solidifying my townreads on them

nate's intro post is really thin and i haven't decided if it's disinterested town after a prod or disinterested scum in general. i do get decent tonal vibes from his "sheep me" post

agree that refa feels more detached from usual but like... i really like his reads. if he isn't town i'll be sad :(

having trouble getting a bead on junko/kirsche/shinori. hopefully will get to directly interact with them at some point

zeus has balls if he's mafia. athena's posting got... better? maybe? i need to reread it. weapons could be scum (definitely sheeping refa's read here lmao)

think i'm still hovering around a very weak townlean on bbm. another slot i need to reread.

fable read hasn't changed since my last post

everyone else needs to post more

already said why this is bad

On 4/14/2018 at 5:47 AM, Walrein said:

snike's probably town for jumping on nate's perceived scumslip the way he did

that said i don't think it was actually a slip

more snike/wal interacts. could go either way imo

On 4/14/2018 at 6:06 AM, Walrein said:

ok let's start with some piles

--confident town--

eclipse

Refa

Snike

Via

--less confident town--

BBM

Bibbon

Fable

Shinori

SullyMcGully

--null--

everyone not listed

--wolfy--

Marth

Mackc2

zeus_12

 

my first and biggest problem with this list is that my nullpile is too big. i'll probably need to reread d1 to get anything resembling a read on the people in that pile (cause people like kirsche junko jb etc haven't made more than like 2 posts d2)

my thoughts on the co-neighborizer thing is that while there's no guarantee that both are town, i think it's incredibly unlikely that neither is town; hence, i'm pretty damn sure Refa's town (and i probably would be even if he hadn't have claimed)

explicitly townreads shinori without citing anything. they have literally quoted or commented on bosts by all the other townleans. shinori read comes out of nowhere. this is the worst thing so far

On 4/14/2018 at 6:10 AM, Walrein said:

oh i guess put satsuma in the confident townpile

thank you snike and thank you hydras

this post is bad

im not sure why the entire scumteam decided to conspicuously townread snike

if walrein flips scum that will be 4/4 flipped scum town reading him without real reasons

out of the gate too. this is a definite intentional move by the mafia, whether he's town or not

On 4/14/2018 at 6:15 AM, Walrein said:

ok so nate's actually a decoy good to know

this changes things tho fuck

gotta rethink

scummy af

the "gotta rethink" stuff is always a terrible buffer for "let me think of how this can possible still be cased". if they were town theyd just townread it immediately. this is lazy walrein

On 4/18/2018 at 5:31 AM, Walrein said:

just from looking at this page: alette not making much sense is a ~decent look (somewhat of a memetic read but it's more accurate than it has any right to be)

makaze hard defending my lazy ass when i have a known rep for flaking as scum is probably a good look unless they've got buddies planning on hard pushing a lynch on me (good luck) to reap the ensuing towncred from "oh look i was right walrein was town all along"

this is an attempt to pocket and tmi

if they were mafia he'd be suspecting me for the same thing

On 4/18/2018 at 5:35 AM, Walrein said:

i'm probably not going to do any work tonight - i much prefer when people are here

and i have literal work tomorrow so we'll see have tomorrow night goes

i really would like to establish a foothold back into this game but it's been Hard when i've missed so many posts due to work (and, let's be real, league of legends) + half the game has subbed out (a problem i'm trying very hard not to contribute to!)

things i'd like to do:

-case jaybee

-reevaluate my townreads on some slots that have subbed

-glance for any easy townreads from the new subins

i basically haven't read anything since last time i posted so i don't exactly have update reads for you all but i'm going to make an attempt to remedy that over the next couple of days

unless somebody posts before i go to bed, walrus out

says they'd LIKE to case jb

we know they never will because this is lazy rein

they were obviously going to sheep someone else

On 4/19/2018 at 5:15 PM, Walrein said:

this can die

this is how i re-enter the thread as scum

they have been shading this slot the whole game

but seems to have forgotten about it

and the opportunism hurts

snike/walrein

is my final read

if there are 5 mafia

Edited April 22, 2018 by Makaze
pronouns

[Makaze]

i am still not certain we should lynch them but if the town is convinced we should leave the itp

i am down for it

my tone read on walrein is gone

and i should have kept reading their iso for associations

Edited April 22, 2018 by Makaze
pronouns