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We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER


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4 minutes ago, Snike said:

The problem is Shinori's shaded both of those slots. I feel like kirsche/kill is probably the one shaded the most since on d2 I think it was just eclipse myself and shinori on the former, so I would think he is hard cleared the most. Yes there's the potential for the double bus but I think it's more likely athena of the two + I legitimately am townreading kill right now.

For other scum, outside of makaze, I was going to offer belu because I don't think self-watcher and lazy watcher can coexist, but I just realized that omega being itp solves that issue.  I think PoE I have to default to walrein despite the shade thrown on him by shinori because I would put Fable Refa Via over him and I think EvilManManMan is not that evil because he's only claimed vig variant.

I still think it's scum makaze though and it goes back to zeus slot looking bad with flipped scum from memory.

What do you think of Athena's content/his cases on Junko + Jaybee/my case on him?

I can get why people think Omega's role is scummy but I also just don't want to lynch that slot so mreh.  If ITP is about to get lynched, they should out all of the mafia members they know as a "fuck you" though.

Makaze is 90% not scum IMO, he's just on the wrong side of history. ;_;

2 minutes ago, Makaze said:

Technically I did this too. Granted that was when I was convinced they were both Mafia. This is an interesting point but I also read that reply as genuine. If it's scummy then it's by omission of not reconsidering?

If I'm wrong on Walrein then he must be the best tone player in the world

Pretty sure you analyzed Arcanite, though.  My impression from you/Via was that you were ALREADY scumreading the slot, and just got caught up in confirmation bias.  Walrein based his entire scumread off of that one point, and when called out on it, didn't even bother reconsidering his view.

I'm actually going to get all of his posts from his last SF scum game and colour code the town/scum names so you guys can get a basic idea of how he plays as scum.

@Fable You should address my Athena reply IMO.

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11 minutes ago, Refa said:

I think [Walrein's] Arcanite jump was legitimately bad in retrospect.  He gets on after forever, jumps on Arcanite for a minor thing (!), when he gets called out on it he's like "well I didn't know that Arcanite acted that way" but doesn't bother to reevaluate his read at all, and doesn't really reevaluate any of Arcanite's content period.  What do you think of his Arcanite case?

The bolded was his last post on D3 (T-24 hours before phase end). So it's only scummy if you consider his flaking alignment-indicative.

 

Most of [Athena's] scum pushes have been after the scum lynches seemed like sure things (Junko, Jaybee) and his slot doesn't put out content on unless he's getting pushed.

His junko vote was sheepy and I could see him hopping on that to follow the town, but he did push Jaybee Day 2 (I don't believe he was a thing until Day 3). Agree that he's been off a radar lately, but his interactions are good enough that I don't want to lynch here.

Probably cut by a lot, a lot.

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Another point against omega being a wolf is why does marth sit on junko on d1 if that's w/w? Like we just made that mistake of ignoring that kinda thing with arc and I'd rather not repeat it literally the next day after we did that. 

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1 minute ago, Fable said:

Another point against omega being a wolf is why does marth sit on junko on d1 if that's w/w? Like we just made that mistake of ignoring that kinda thing with arc and I'd rather not repeat it literally the next day after we did that. 

I N D E P E N D E N T T H I R D P A R T Y B O I

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yeah i'll admit that i was wrong about arc, i had less to go off with arc than i do with omega though. arc was kind of me shooting somewhere and hoping i was right and their reply to me made me think they were scum cuz confirmation bias and i felt dumb cuz weapons was prob obvtown before he subbed out and i was just praying we could solve the game through PoE

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2 minutes ago, Vi-astra said:

what refa

idk it reminds me of my sfmm4 play where i lynched people who should otherwise be cleared because i was paranoid + they could be itp anyways.

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how do you explain his recent posts though. also I'm not voting him cuz I just think he's itp.

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6 minutes ago, Vi-astra said:

he can still be itp fwiw and what do you make of his last posts then

The self-vote?

I don't think it was serious or anything I kinda just read it as a "lolyou" kinda thing he wanted to do before he left.

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why would he do that right after gaslighting us multiple times and then just leave and think we'd assume he was joking

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@Baldrick I think jb was getting wagoned to an extent before the Great Sub Awakening happened.

@Refa If that's an attempt to get me to go back and link the cases you've failed. From memory though I would agree with the lurk until pressed remark, and I feel like he was not really initiating any of the wagons, rather hopping on instead with some supporting reasoning that feels thin. Like I said previously he is not actively pushing IMO and while I've had that uneasy feeling I've been pushing it away as me tunneling for the past phase or so.

I am going to go finish making art. And some packing up and moving stuff. Mostly the latter. I don't know if I'll be coming back to this thread tonight.

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On 2/3/2018 at 12:01 AM, Rumor Honeybottoms said:

##Vote: Captain Brineybeard

coward

someone post something dumb so i can cast a real vote

On 2/3/2018 at 12:44 AM, Captain Brineybeard said:

something dumb

##Unvote, ##Vote: Rumor Honeybottoms

On 2/3/2018 at 1:02 AM, Rumor Honeybottoms said:

oh it's on now

On 2/3/2018 at 10:08 PM, Rumor Honeybottoms said:

sup

reading back now

This post has too many quotes but Baroness and Grim are the other scum and everyone else is town.

There are like three more posts on this page that I'm not quoting, sue me.

Three more posts on this page as well.

A few more posts here as well that I'm too lazy to quote.

This is the start of D2 FTR, and his reaction to being wagoned.  He has some posts at the start of the next page as well.  Cop outed results on him soon after and he got lynched that day.

@Makaze I want you in particular to look at these and LMK  if you think the tone differs and why, because from where I'm standing not only is the tone the same but so is the style of posting and now I really want to throw down a vote on Walrein lol.

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I do think Omega is more likely to be ITP than mafia. That claim would be a good ITP role and with his tone shift today, I find it unlikely he'd hard bus junko.

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1 minute ago, Snike said:

@Baldrick I think jb was getting wagoned to an extent before the Great Sub Awakening happened.

@Refa If that's an attempt to get me to go back and link the cases you've failed. From memory though I would agree with the lurk until pressed remark, and I feel like he was not really initiating any of the wagons, rather hopping on instead with some supporting reasoning that feels thin. Like I said previously he is not actively pushing IMO and while I've had that uneasy feeling I've been pushing it away as me tunneling for the past phase or so.

I am going to go finish making art. And some packing up and moving stuff. Mostly the latter. I don't know if I'll be coming back to this thread tonight.

TMK JB was getting wagoned on D2 by BBM.

Wow, don't be such a slacker Snike.  Also fair enough.

Oh boy, art.

7 minutes ago, Vi-astra said:

how do you explain his recent posts though. also I'm not voting him cuz I just think he's itp.

yeah i phrased that wrong but idk it feels like you're saying "well he has a decent chance of being scum and itp" instead of just voting the guy who has the most chance of being scum but like a 0% chance of being itp idk

2 minutes ago, Fable said:

@Refa

Where are you getting shinori only pushed athena d1 when he was still pushing athena at EoD2? 

Can you link me to this?  I don't remember him laying a vote down on Athena, just putting him in his "scum leans".

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On 4/10/2018 at 12:04 PM, athena_57 said:

Okay, reread SatsumaFSoySoy and their content is pretty bad. A grand total of 4 filler posts followed by the excuse you mentioned. I'll sheep this for now for pressure.

##Vote: SatsumaFSoySoy

+1 to never w/w with Snike

On 4/11/2018 at 4:11 AM, athena_57 said:

No I didn't have much of a case, that's true. But it was the best case I had at the time and thus the one I pursued. I do not consider a double pressure vote to be a big deal at all, especially in a 22 player game, so I don't follow your logic there.

I didn't mean I disliked uncertain players, I dislike players who hide behind their uncertainty.

I didn't think you were accusing us of being buddies, I felt you were accusing me of piggybacking Bartozio's case, in which case my argument stands.

How many players are going to have to tell you D1 isn't just about meta until you start doing stuff? Even if it doesn't help you, it helps others. It feels weird placing my vote back here, but I think your later posts have been pretty bad as well. I find it pretty interesting you're attacking me for avoiding confrontation whilst refusing to place a vote yourself.

##Vote: SatsumaFSoySoy

I'm liking Eclipse's stuff so far. It seems 'honest' scumhunting.
I agree with the notion Refa seems like detached town.
Weapons weird behavior is throwing me off, but I think it's NAI, perhaps even weird enough to make it townish.

I approve of the case on Bartozio, he's been acting pretty weird, but I don't see any merit in joining the wagon at this point.


Going to defend Zeus here for a sec, I can confirm saying stuff like 'I'm stupid' to people he doesn't know, sitting back and playing passively and a tendency to laziness are all things I expect him to do whether he's town or scum. Consider this a meta-read saying his behaviour is NAI. It is however extremely annoying @zeus_112, and I would urge you to become more productive.

In similar fashion, all the other little-posters, so Fable, nightmare, JB etc. are null to me, with JB being slightly worse due to his hypocritical post about non-activity.

Satsuma > Bartozio > JB for me atm.

Early shading on JB, +1 to that too

On 4/11/2018 at 11:40 AM, athena_57 said:

I mean, this is my second game of forum mafia, so can you really speak of meta? I know I noticed myself playing vastly differently as scum last game than I play as scum in the IRL mafia games I'm accustomed to so... TBH I don't think there's too big of a difference as even as townie I find myself thinking about how I should phrase things and as scum I targeted people I'd target as town as well. Maybe there's some tonal differences and stuff, but that's sort of tough to judge about yourself.

Is this a joke? You literally named a bunch of people and said they were town and then use the word "weird" to describe BBM.

Why does this clear him as town? Because he can't be targeted at night or because he claimed? Cause the exact same thing happened last game where a scum ascetic claimed in the middle of day 1.

I believe Satsuma, zeus and Bart are the ones with 3 or more votes on them. Kirsche has two. Deadline is in about 28 hours.

One game of forum mafia.
Minor experience of TownofSalem, (online, phases of about a minute), about a week till I got sick of the afwul community.
Mostly experience with tabletop with my cousins, werewolves of millers hollow mostly.

 

Other thoughts:

Agree Marth's entrance is mediocre and his "forgot to vote, see you later!"-post was really bad imo.
Waiting on a game stance from Bibbon, but I disliked her questions.

Wanted to reiterate I still do not agree with the cases on weapons, I just think scum wouldn't behave so weird. I don't know him though, anyone with more experience w/ regards to his meta capable of telling me whether this is something you'd see him doing as scum?

Like his weapons defense here, he admits it is bad, but doesn't think its weird. he isn't waffling here, hes just stating what he thinks, and acknowledges the contradiction.

On 4/11/2018 at 4:49 PM, athena_57 said:

Question: how did we go from "let's vig him" to "let's hang him" so quickly?

 

Stop replying and start a case FFS

this is bias because defending my slot but this is a great question and seems town motivated: don't see why he'd do this as scum

On 4/14/2018 at 8:05 AM, athena_57 said:

Okay, I'm going to start by attempting to clarify my role a bit more.

The players I and my fellow connector connect get this connection indefinitely (==> as long as they live)
I can select another (or the same) person each night, creating an additional QT.

I did indeed select Refa as my target, but was redirected towards nightmare.

My thoughts on Bart around mid-day 1 were "Kind of weird, but not enough content to judge", then his late day 1 posts I felt were mediocre. I think this makes it clear why I went for him when choosing between the wagons.

I wasn't ignoring posts, I missed a single one. What was happening there is that around phase end it was midnight, I had an exam the following morning which I hadn't prepared well enough for and I was on the brink of being lynched, which meant I was kind of stressing out. I apologize for missing that post, but you're blowing it out of proportion.

When I didn't want to vote Marth it wasn't 30 minutes before deadline. There was still plenty of time for Bartozio to come back and do something which would solidify my read. Marth was null and I didn't think it was necessary to join a wagon at that point. When I voted Bart, it was less than an hour before deadline and his wagon had like 4 votes. It was going to come down to me/Marth/Bart and of those I obviously went for Bart.

That's a bit of a misrep. First I say "I myself do not think this is a problem, but am more bothered by the aforementioned filler posts", then I say "I didn't agree w/ his reasoning, only his conclusion". How is that backpedaling?

Not going to go into how bad (note: bad, not scummy) this is, others have done that, but I'm confused about something else. You don't know who he visited? That's weird af, you just got a message "Hey, Kirsche used a night action."?

I'm assuming your role lets you select a bunch of people (2/3 I'd say) and check who of them did something? In that case, I'd keep that info silent if I were you. It's useful info in that it pinpoints you towards either scum or powerful roles, but I wouldn't make it public, unless it's to support a case, as that helps scum more than town I feel.

 

I wouldn't classify it as scummy at all tbh. I think it's weird enough to classify as town.

 

I am extremely bothered by this post. I have already responded to this previously, saying Marth and Zeus were both null, but I wanted Zeus vigged, not hanged.

And most importantly I disagree a Zeus lynch would have provided associative reads on the 3 of us, let alone extremely strong ones. I do not see how him flipping either town or scum leaves any of us looking better or worse.

Where did I come to the conclusion Zeus was townie? I'm pretty sure I didn't. I mean, it's a nice change of pace from people interpreting my null as scum, but still.

I think you're forgetting here Snike and Satsuma are the same slot and the main reason for the swap was Snike.

His entrance was mediocre, but not bad enough to warrant him being a prime lynch candidate. I also thought the case was based on his Junko vote, not his opening. I did not agree with the Marth case.

Phase start was at midnight for me, so this entire phase has been night for me until I started catching up. Hence why I have been less of a presence.

Read update time:

Town: Via, Walrein, Refa

Most confident in Via, followed by Refa.

Leaning town: Weapons (too weird for scum), Shinori, Kirsche, BBM, Eclipse (moved down from pure townread because their stuff on me feels like they didn't bother reading my response)

Null: Unmentioned people

Leaning scum: Mack (because of nightmare's stuff mostly, curious to see how this develops)

Scum: Jaybee (see below

I wasn't even aware of how bad his early content was tbh (in fact I forgot about it) until I saw BBM's case. I was bothered by Nightmare's "distanced summaries", but this is even worse.
What I'm adding to this is that of all the Bartozio votes, his concerns me the most. All of the votes from nightmare onwards I'll classify as consolidation votes and am thus not bothered by, and all the other votes before mine have been made by people I townread.


I don't think the Bart wagon was primarily scumdriven, but obviously there was some scum in the early votes and none of the others make sense as scum imo. It kind of feels like JB placed a random vote on Bart, then saw that turn into a wagon and felt "huh, that works, let's leave it here". Like, he's obviously scumreading Bibbon big time, makes a post attacking her but doesn't swap? Feels like he just wanted to keep the Bart wagon intact tbh.

##Vote: Jaybee

However, speaking of that JB post attacking Bibbon, did Bibbon ever reply? I like her stuff from today, but some of JB's questions are good questions. Did I miss the reply?

He also cases JB hardcore here and has independent thoughts.

On 4/14/2018 at 4:16 PM, athena_57 said:

I don't really like JB's earlier post tbh, if inactivity is your best defense then I don't even know what to say, except that scum!you would be perfectly fine with staying offline as long as the wagon your on keeps growing and nobody's questioning you. Than his Bibbon post comes along, I still like his questions to Bibbon tbh, and then he ends with:

Where did that come from? You keep asking questions and accusing her, but you feel the need to leave yourself a way out without explaining what makes you feel better? Getting really bad vibes from that line tbh.

Quote 1 contains me saying I disagree with Barts specific reason for voting, but that I am voting Satsuma as well
Quote 2 contains me saying I disagree with Barts specific reason for voting, but that I am voting Satsuma as well

I cannot see why you think this is backpedaling at all, which is why I'm calling this a misrep or a really gross misunderstanding. I also don't see how I'm more backing away from him in the latter post than the former.

The network wasn't on weapons for a few reasons. First and foremost, I think Refa is a more active player and thus more likely to use a QT well. Yes, he had been less active day 1, but I felt improvement the last hours and the EIMM game he was in was about to end, which led me to conclude his activity would increase. Secondly, when I'm making a decision such as that I feel I should be trying to make up for my own blind spots by not only choosing someone I personally townread, but someone who's being townread universally, like a "wisdom of the crowds"-thing. That also improves the chance of the other connected person opening up to him.

You are unmentioned because you're null. What bothers me about you is, like you said, the nitpicking and overblowing of small things in my play. I am not certain however, whether you're scum trying to frame me and desperately searching my posts for things to do it with or a townie tunneling super hard under the assumption they found scum.
I could see it being both, which is why you're a member of the null pile, albeit a notable one.

I'm not conceding the point, I just feel the argument is over. He thinks that because not all of my townreads can be correct, I should start null/scum-reading one of them and I think that's BS as long as I don't know which one of them it is. Not much more to be said.

 

Further JB casing.

On 4/15/2018 at 10:25 AM, athena_57 said:

Okay, I see a Kirsche wagon forming, but I'm not completely sure where that's coming from. I hear he's tunneling a lot, but to me it didn't feel like that at all tbh, I'll reread him, but in the meantime, could someone link me a post containing a sort of summary of the Kirsche case (or make one)? I assume there is one, but I can't find it.

As for Marth, I suppose I'll reread him as well (not like it's much effort) as if the attacks on him are justified it might be a good reason to re-evaluate my null read.

I claimed co-connector, each night I select someone who gets a quicktopic with someone else selected by a player with the same ability I have. This QT lasts until one of them dies, and an additional one is created each night. Last night I selected Refa, but was redirected to Nightmare (now replaced by Mack) who martyr'd Refa. The other player in the QT claimed, it's Fable, we don't know the other connector.

Nightmare/Mack claimed martyr, (select a player, all actions targeting that player target Mack instead)

Eclipse is confirmed Mayor

Snike/Satsuma hydra claimed role miller I think? They'd better explain themselves, I didn't fully understand it, but the point is, investigation results on them are wrong.

Magnificence Incarnate claimed delayer+self-watcher

Bibbon (you) claimed jailor

Via claimed riddler, he needs our character names and is vanilla till he knows all of them

Sully claimed this weird role where they select someone and their action fails if that person uses a night action. They used it on Kirsche, the role failed, Kirsche confirmed (or at least didn't deny) he used a night action. (Side note, Sully made the awkward decision of starting a Kirsche case over this, but that was dropped after he realized there were way less vanilla townies (read: none) in this game than what he's used to)

I think that's everyone? Sorry if I missed someone or got something wrong.

 

As for my top 3 lynch targets:

Nr 1: Jaybee BBM opened this case here, I joined and added some points here   and  

 He defended himself here, which I commented on here BBM also replied to him somewhere, I suggest you look it up.

Point is, JB has been inactive, only posting surface level reads and not interacting, whilst keeping his vote on yesterday's mislynch wagon whilst he was scumreading someone else (for whom you subbed in). Then out of nowhere in the midst of questioning her (you now), he feels the need to leave himself a way out and says he feels a lot better about it today without explaining why.

Nr 2: Nightmare/Mack (sub)

Mack is still catching up, but Nightmare is in the same boat as JB, in that he's only been posting these surface-level uninteractive summaries from time to time. 30 minutes before phase end, when the biggest wagon was only halfway to providing a lynch, he decided to not contribute to a lynch but vote someone who wasn't going to be lynched that day. He also made a really weird comment on Snike then, saying:

"You seem a little over-eager to push the Bartozio lynch, Snike. I know we'll need a lynch by the end of the day, but it's making me a bit uneasy", around 10 minutes before phase end whilst no lynch was a massive threat at the time, it read like he was setting himself up for a Bart town-flip.

Nightmare has subbed out now, so my vote isn't here whilst I'm waiting for the sub to catch up.

Nr 3 Zeus

I'm null on him, but Zeus has made it clear he isn't going to scumhunt or contribute. Yesterday we reached a sort of consensus he should be vigged, but that didn't happen. If none of my scumreads get anywhere, I'm willing to consolidate here to get rid of him, I feel multiple people are in the same boat.

 

this game state post is both accurate and tells new people to vote for JB. i don't see how this is good to do as mafia. Slight point is he townreads Shinori. I think that's fine as as I was too at this time. I did not see a Shinori scumflip coming.

On 4/15/2018 at 3:52 PM, athena_57 said:

I liked JB's post. I don't agree with the weapons case, but whatever, I can see why he would have issues. I agree with the nightmare/mack case (and vote) and I like his points on Eclipse, who I myself am still on the fence about. His cases are fine, even if I don't necessarily agree with all of them. Following closely how this progresses, but my vote can go elsewhere for now.

##Unvote

I reread Kirsche and Junk and after actually looking at the blob of text Junk posted in detail I dislike it. The attack on Refa makes no sense, the attacks on me I've already mentioned and his stuff on Kirsche is bad, as discussed by others. Kirsche is looking better, Junk is looking worse and I agree with the notion there's likely scum among them. Good chance of scum, good associative reads, needs to be pressured into content, what more do you want from a vote?

##Vote: RADicate

I'm interested in seeing what RAD brings to the table, mostly because Junk has been tunneling and a wider view would help a ton in reading this slot.

Votes Junko's slot and reasons the case out with specific examples he comes up with on his own.

At this point I am pretty sure BBM and athena are the only people suspecting JB or voting him

On 4/16/2018 at 8:29 AM, athena_57 said:

@Refa Quoting that spoiler post isn't going to work, but this is what you said:

Spoiler

Athena's early D1 replies to me show that he's thinking about the game in a way that would be hard to fake as scum.  I like his first voteswap off of Satsuma when he realized he couldn't get anything more out of the slot, very protown move.  Also IMO his revote on Satsuma reads as a natural progression (this guy is still bothering me the most even after I stepped off) to me.  Why did you approve on the case on Bartozio early on (here), but not see any merit in joining?  Why was there no merit?  Also I feel like here, he'd have to have serious balls as scum to describe his play in this game and be like "that's my play as scum".

You should target me again IMO.  I want OC w/BBM/Bibbon/Omega/Sully/Via in particular.

The reason I didn't see any merit in joining is that he hadn't posted in a while and he already had a number of pressure voted on him (3 I think?), me adding a fourth doesn't really add any meaningful pressure.

I'd consider targeting you if you didn't keep asking for a jailor... Or am I mistaken in that a jailor stops me from connecting you?

Are you seriously suggesting I let someone else write a post for me? Quite frankly, I feel insulted you don't believe I am capable of writing a good post. Look at the tone, look at the vocabulary, that second post matches my other posts way more than it matches anyone else here, especially Refa, who writes a lot more casual. If you really want, I can browse my documents for some reports I've written in English and you'll see the same style. The difference between these two posts merely rests on structure. Now, the first post was made 3 hours before phase end as a real-time response whilst I was on the brink of being lynched. The second post was a post I had some time to chew on, meaning I took my time to think about how I could best phrase my case. I was also a lot more certain of my reads in the second post, which makes me more determined and thus structured. I wouldn't describe the change as evolution in my posting style, but rather as me falling back on my normal posting style after the dust has settled a bit.

 

To be honest? I'm not sure, but after my initial surprise/concerns I don't hate it as much anymore. On the one hand, I'd expect someone with a bit of experience to see the merit in claiming such a blatantly anti-town (note:not scummy, just negative utility) ability as it can only assist town to claim it. On the other hand, if they learned to play somewhere where talking about your role is 'not done' than I can understand the hesitation. I think I'm okay with it.

On the JB stuff: Mostly agree with what you're saying, BBM's case is the bulk of the case on him of course, but how do you feel about the stuff I've said on him?

On Junko: You say you're townreading Kirsche and appear to be scumreading Junko, except for the fact that your other scumreads are on that wagon. You also said Junko flipping town doesn't really influence your Kirsche read.

So you really think the odds of this being town vs town is so high? Because I really disagree on that. Town misrepping a fellow townie doesn't make sense and considering both of them have repeatedly accused the other of misrepping them, I'm interpreting it as the scummy one misrepping the other and trying to get away with it by accusing the other of the same thing, I just don't see this blowing up the way it did in a town vs town scenario?

I was going to stop defending myself against you, since like you said it just turned into this back and forth of opinions on whether or not my behaviour is scummy, but when you start doubting scumreads I agree with because of it, I'm going to object. I would urge you to take a step back and consider the possibility you got stuck in the mindset of scumreading me without considering any of my recent stuff or the game around it. And if you're still absolutely certain I'm scum after that, who, besides Refa whom you've mentioned, make sense as my scumbuddies? Cause if I recall correctly, the only people who've been defending me so far have been people who are amongst your townreads, so BBM, Kirsche, Fable, Bibbon.

 

Gamestance on Eclipse:

The first part of Eclipse's stuff where she gets mad at people calling her out on the "easy" cases she's been advertising where she's attacking poor play bothers me.
Then she continues by attacking Makaze for being in a slot that should be gone, which confuses me. I thought she was nullreading Zeus as well, but wanted to get rid of him for not producing, which is fine. But now Makaze is producing, so I don't see why she still wants the slot gone? I'd appreciate some clarification here, @eclipse.

Then she spends some time talking about Junk/Kirsche without really coming to a conclusion, but I personally don't mind this, in fact I quite like it as I'd expect scum to have a stronger opinion on this conflict.

TL;DR Not sure about this slot, I'm thinking null, maybe slightly town?

 

My voting priority:

It doesn't change much. I still have Junk > JB > Mack as biggest scumreads, but agree Mack's role makes him a bad lynch. Junk is way more valuable associative-read wise than both of them and I'm also more confident of him flipping scum. My vote stays on him and is in fact more solidified than before.
Junk being forced to sub back in sucks for him, and having missed so much defending himself is going to be hard, but I still want him lynched today.

See the red line. Again he emphasizes he has his own thoughts, he wants to convince others to lynch JB, he isn't sheeping.

On 4/18/2018 at 6:58 AM, athena_57 said:

I'm assuming you're referring to what I thought of that JB post after the unvote-thing? To be honest, I don't actually dislike it, especially the Eclipse/Weapons stuff I can agree with. IIRC past!me didn't feel as good about it, because I was townreading both Eclipse and Weapons at the time.

Good call on Walrein, I completely missed/forgot that. Also, I'm curious, has Mack been using the QT? That would really help me in reading that slot.

The other QT should still be open, yes. Where are you getting this "no QT this phase" from? I know I used my ability and it succeeded.

Sorry if you're trying to keep it silent, but since I connected you, you should know whether or not there is a QT atm. Is there one?

How do you feel about LG as of now?

You've all listed them at some point perhaps, but it's a lot clearer/easier if they're all in one place. Also, between posting them and now, nothing changed about any of them?

His D1/D2 posts have been very non-committal, he was scumreading Bibbon D1 and questioning her, but left his vote on the Bart wagon, who would end up getting mislynched. His excuse for this is inactivity. He hasn't said much about the 2 people who flipped scum and made a pretty sheepish vote on the first real counterwagon to Junko (who was lynched and flipped scum). His day 1/2 were non-interactive, he had a hand in the Bart mislynch and has bad associativity with the flipped scum members.

He was my biggest scumread after Junk and he looks even worse now. The claim doesn't change anything for me. This wagon is already big so I might swap elsewhere at some point today, but for now I'm voting here to show where I stand.

##Vote: Jaybee

With that out of the way, my thoughts:

Phase end was disgusting. Multiple people pointed out the chaos could very well be scum trying to save junk and yet y'all almost turbo'd Kirsche.

I already said I hated these counterwagons, but I don't think Makaze/Sully look worse because of it, their cases seem genuine.

I am pretty bothered by the Kirsche wagon, mostly because I can't pinpoint who I dislike on it. Like I said, I'm not blaming sully, the gutreads from Makaze/Via make sense and appear honest.

Refa just keeps on swapping and being opportunistic af, which I don't think is scummy. Omega's vote is barely explained (surprise surprise), but I don't hate the slot either because of their entrance wrt Junk.

This leaves Snike, whose vote swap looks kind of bad I feel. I however can't get a read on this slot at all. Snike is just so incredibly towny overall but this vote is ??? and Shinori interactions don't look good either.

Someone else I'm not sure on Is Eclipse/Baldrick. I feel the cases on the slot make sense, but they did contribute to the Junk lynch and were one of the counterwagons, which makes me think they're town? I'm going to need to hear more from Baldrick before I can develop a proper read here.

 

Something else I wanted to point out wrt Shinori dancing around Kirsche at phase end. He explicitly said he was going to vote Kirsche if nothing happened, which he might have thought would discourage others from swapping. To me, it reads like he wanted Kirsche lynched without tying himself too strongly to it.

My reads as of now:

Town:

Via (duh, move along)
Fable (I was already leaning town, but their firmness on lynching junk and their good post from early today bump him up to here)
Kirsche (I know town/scum connectors make sense, but I'm not dumping my read over rolespec, esp since apparently these hosts have a history of screwing over rolespeccers)
Refa (Opportunism is a bit weird, but still feels really town overall)
Sully

Leaning town:

Makaze (Good contributions imo)
Kaoz (Because of their role)
Omega
 

Null:

Snoyke (Confused on them. Also, I like the name Snoyke, props to whoever thought of it.)

Alette (Post your reads please, I can't make anything off of this slot. Weirdness seems towny, but 'refusal' to cooperate bugs me)

LG (I think I like this slot, just not as much as the leaning town people)

Arc (Originally townread weapons for being weird, but if he does that as scum too then bleh)

Baldrick (I like Makaze's case, but end of day 2 causes doubts)

 

Leaning scum:

Mack (depends on what he's done with the QT)

Walrein (Not much to go off, need to see more of what they think after catching up, but Fable makes a good point)

 

Scum:

Jaybee (See above)

He goes hard on the Jaybee lynch. His thoughts on JB have had steady and believable progressionn across multiple Days.

On 4/19/2018 at 6:11 PM, athena_57 said:

Well, I'm still uncertain over the Snoyke slot, so not sure whether you'd call it a case, but there are a few things that bother me

- The aforementioned argument where I said Snike was keeping Satsuma on a leash. I'd expect town!Snike to "let Satsuma roam freely" as more pushes can only mean more interactions and more info for town, whereas scum!Snike might be worried about scumslips/bad pushes. This fits in with the hyper self-awareness you mentioned.

- Their tunnels on me and Mack were pretty excessive and most importantly both escalated over counterattacks. It keeps on bugging me that I don't think they'd have gone so all in on me if I hadn't opened with a Satsuma push? Same with Mack, they only started really scumreading Mack once he attacked them. I'm not saying it's OMGUS/on purpose, in fact I think it's subconscious, but it's shady nonetheless.

- Their voteswitch from Junk onto Kirsche looks pretty bad

- Their interactions with Shinori are close to buddying

That being said, I think Snike has been a very productive player and when I use the word tunneling above, I'm using it a bit loosely as they did comment on others. Also, if we're doubting the Kirsche/Kill slot the voteswitch isn't bad. Some people have made the argument that their buddying with Shinori is obvious enough to make it unlikely to be scum partners.

My problem with this slot is that I like it overall, but there are these details that stand out to me as pretty bad. I really do not know what to make of it.

His progression on Snike is the most genuine part of this to me. He town reads him when he should and scum reads him when he should.

Athena is town.

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Also I don't know what to make of his self vote, it just didn't strike me as something scum in his position would do (speaking as someone who's been scum w/him before).

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