We Need Serenes Forest Mafia Mafia 5 After All! - GAME OVER

[Beru]

3 minutes ago, Makaze said:

i did not use you as a reason to read the slot, before or after, lol

you read tonally town though

thank. this is true

as mafia i would 1) actually know what is going on and have a plan and be able to like, read people since i would have perfect information to base reads off of 2) not be so....... post. because i'd actually have to think about what i was posting

[Beru]

1 minute ago, Refa said:

what do you mean wrt kills

makaze should be dead. alette should be dead. refa should be dead. none of them are dead. how many protectives have we had that could protect other people? it's not shade on them i'm just wondering wtf the scum are doing l0l

i mean makaze has been horribly terribly wrong the entire time apparently but his cases and theories seem to be the only things driving the game forward idk

but like............ they're basically cleared town and they're still alive and i don't get it

i mean i don't get why the itp shot shinobi either and this is probably just an extension of that, uh, lack of knowing wtf actually happened this game in general

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, Beru said:

ok so: how strongly do you feel omega is the itp

and also: how strongly do you feel there are 4 vs 5 mafia

if you think there's 5 mafia we should lynch omega to reduce kp but if you think there's four mafia lynching any Not Town Person is fine because it reduces kp either way

also

i'm concerned about the kills made this game.

is anyone else... also concerned about that

I am 100% convinced that Omega is the ITP and there is no way I am going back on it. His slip with that defensive post makes it certain.

i think that 5 mafia and 1 itp makes sense, but my PoE says 4 should be the case, and Snike is the last one. its hard to imagine a world where anyone else has managed to fool me.

note that this has proved not hard to do but I don't think any of my clears are not valid or highly vetted

 

what do you mean by concerned about the kills?

[Makaze]

1 minute ago, Beru said:

makaze should be dead. alette should be dead. refa should be dead. none of them are dead. how many protectives have we had that could protect other people? it's not shade on them i'm just wondering wtf the scum are doing l0l

i mean makaze has been horribly terribly wrong the entire time apparently but his cases and theories seem to be the only things driving the game forward idk

but like............ they're basically cleared town and they're still alive and i don't get it

i mean i don't get why the itp shot shinobi either and this is probably just an extension of that, uh, lack of knowing wtf actually happened this game in general

i have been very wrong for a long time

and there were two protective roles in this game. one of them was mack

it's very likely that mack protected me and he is the martyr so he took the hit instead

[Makaze]

either that or he protected someone else

its impossible to know if he was killed directly

[Makaze]

what i don't understand is

why does it matter why they killed them

i think it's probably that someone tried to shoot eclipse n1, but she was jailed (i think this was claimed) and that's why she's alive. she was consensus town aroujnd then

then they shot shinori. he was also consensus town, more or less. the mafia shot bbm because he was casing jb hardcore and they thought he was a threat. they also janitor'd him so we know they wanted to make him look like mafia with the kill to make his jb read look bad.

now both the jailer AND mack have died. mack was the martyr so its impossible to know if that was intentional but this is the point when it's unlikely for them to be protecting the person who claimed jailor n1. clearly someone was right about that, so their reasoning wasn't wrong.

[Refa]

I dunno, Makaze, I read your Athena case and the most convincing thing to me is that both Shinori/Junk were casing Athena at some point.  Junk never votes Athena though (and only cases him after he's likely to get hosed), and I need to look into Shinori's case on him.

My understanding is that you're townreading him for having a steady progression on JB (fair) and voting Junk.  I don't think this is as townie as you do.  Yes, he'd have to be intent on bussing JB by the middle of D1, but he (Athena) was a likely lynch candidate anyways.  It'd probably make JB look better, if anything.  Also if I had to bus any of the flipped scum roles, I'd definitely pick JB lol.  Most of his JB casing is just him casting shade but not really analyzing.  Also in context, his D3 JB vote came after five other people voting.  His D2 JB vote came after a BBM case (which FTR Snike sheeped) and after several people were voting JB.

7 minutes ago, Fable said:

This is Shinori unvoting Athena 30 minutes before EoD2.

I saw Shinori's vote on the slot, something that struck me as weird was that Athena never really responds to Shinori's cases on him despite townreading the slot.  Very strange!  If a townread was voting me, I'd be very hurt confused.  These were the wagons after he voted Athena as well.  In a vacuum, I'd argue this makes Athena look good BUT the lack of interaction from Shinori makes him look worse AND it makes his JB vote far less telling.

[Refa]

25 minutes ago, Makaze said:

I am 100% convinced that Omega is the ITP and there is no way I am going back on it. His slip with that defensive post makes it certain.

i think that 5 mafia and 1 itp makes sense, but my PoE says 4 should be the case, and Snike is the last one. its hard to imagine a world where anyone else has managed to fool me.

Why are you voting Omega if you think he's the ITP?

I don't see why LAST MAN STANDING Snike volunteers to lynch himself.

[Refa]

Also I didn't comment on it but you're probably right WRT Walrein, mafia sucks.

[Percivalé]

I should have died n1 imo

[Percivalé]

I'm kidding

[Beru]

5 minutes ago, Refa said:

Why are you voting Omega if you think he's the ITP?

I don't see why LAST MAN STANDING Snike volunteers to lynch himself.

omega kind of Actually lynched himself though so like

they're competing to die first rn

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Vi-astra said:

I'm kidding

Yeah, I should have died on N1. =)

[Refa]

1 minute ago, Beru said:

omega kind of Actually lynched himself though so like

they're competing to die first rn

@Omega. @Snike Feel free to scum claim if you want to win this race!!!!!

[Baldrick]

4 minutes ago, Refa said:

I don't see why LAST MAN STANDING Snike volunteers to lynch himself.

 

2 minutes ago, Refa said:

mafia sucks.

That's why. It's a relief to die.

I'm kind of frustrated since I don't see my PoE pool changing at all and there's still a long time left.

 

[Makaze]

On 4/18/2018 at 1:10 PM, Snike said:

skimmed; reading now but I wanted to get a post out before getting locked in eternal war w/ baldrick.

Feel free to talk about my scumgame; tbh it's not much worse than I'm playing right now outside of being right about scum on eclipsewagon  pre-eod #Kobe.

Do we think weapons looks better or worse with this flip?  That page 57 post by weapons has him saying the case on JB was easy and scum was probably pushing it which is obviously wrong now but then the shinori vote's still a minor problem. But then JB's case on weapons was v bad. Could this just be scum defend/scum bus?

Also, reminder: I lateclaimed the godfather scan modifier on my role (role miller) + a night action that doesn't make sense for scum when the jan kill was obviously on BBM. Especially wrt the first, why would I do that as scum? Like I would be buddies with Shinori in this scenario so there's no reason why satsuma wouldn't have been told to claim that immediately by Scumnori.

My interaction w/him and my end of day yesterday can look kind of bad but above still makes no sense.

I would be down with gaius/makaze/weapons today. I felt better about gaius earlier (esp with my read on bbm being wrong) but he is still part of that vote block. Makaze I've been reading as null but his scumteam just blew up.

nothing this post down as another mark against Snike for very bad gaslighting defense

also he was one of the leading people on the weapons/arc lynch and cased me with a very opportunistic reasoning

in fact i think he has waffled on me so hard its pretty bad in itself. going to simply quote all of snike's reads on me. they happen to be one lines

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Makaze I wanted to vig this slot for the d1 antics; I think other people like BBM have more or less explained some more of why it's suspicious; I don't know makaze meta but I feel like his stuff has been OK so far. Like I don't think his play has been scummy but I don't agree with a good part of it, notably eclipse.

 

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@Refa I mean yes but back when it was BBM gaius makaze jb. JB's the obvious candidate but I don't feel good about gaius makaze either.

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I'm guessing makaze's worsening on reread?

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I would be down with gaius/makaze/weapons today. I felt better about gaius earlier (esp with my read on bbm being wrong) but he is still part of that vote block. Makaze I've been reading as null but his scumteam just blew up.

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And then the zeus defense is consistent through JB Shinori and Junko. JB less so but he kinda chainsaws eclipse same post so discrediting one of the attackers and the zeus mention was out of place at the time.

Also, re:his first post: how likely do you think that he picked 4 town to push on his first actual contentpost?

##Vote: Makaze

I think I feel the least ??? here with d1 in mind and recent activity in account.  What do you think @Refa?

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I'm reading it as Makaze analysis that is NAI but uh I remember thinking before the flip that his hypothetical scumteam was ???

I mean I think he's been wrong about JB and Junko now I think and he's backing off his previous reads but like it's hard to say for certain how he is because I've never played with scum makaze.

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@KillthestoryYou're townreading makaze now?

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Speaking of start of Day 2. i reread that announce. Nice townreads.

##Unvote

##Vote: Arcanite

Makaze's still in poe but I feel worse about this slot as of now.

This is actually a really scummy vote for Arcanite. I didn't really notice it because I was looking for scum associations. If Walrein read Arcanite scum off of one post...

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World where Mack isn't scum and is tunneling townie; poe becomes Athena/Gaius/Walrein/Arcanite/Makaze IMO

I don't think Makaze is scum at this point in time anymore despite zeus poe. That could be scum defending his slot for easy towncred.

Athena is probably clear on associatives.

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I think Makaze's comment about shinori never questioning me is wrong especially when you look at stuff like the bottom of page 41 and the follow up. 

Which he omitted.

I find it suspicious that he calls my shinori stuff bad when he is ignoring the context of kirsche asking me to comment on shinori stuff. His framing of it being that I hadn't interacted in depth with shinori is true to an extent but that content was directed at kirsche before he subbed out.

I also find it kind of suspicious that he immediately 180ed on me being town following the mislynch when he had , and I quote,  a "hard, unbreakable" read that if arc flipped town, I would be town too.

This in addition to his amazing inaccuracy for lynch choice leads me to believe that he is scum, and I really should've trusted the zeus associations as buddying instead of weak towncred before writing him off as town.

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@Refa On Makaze: I understand that but I feel like there's something to be said when he is consistently wrong on lynches he cases and I feel tonally especially with like end of d2 sigh and the beat your asses that he is acting different from what I remember. I also know his case on me is wrong and it omitted that first point which I now legitimately think exculpates me if taken with Shinori's post on 29. Look at the word that is oddly capitalized. Does that look like an interaction with someone who has knowledge of the scumteam?

Lastly, I really do think zeus associations look bad for that slot. IIRC all known scum slots were defending it.

I mean it's possible this is natural but I see a lot of leaps and opportunism. I think he decides what is the best strategic decision and then rationalizes the change, which he is good at doing.

Got to say Snike, whatever your flip is, you're doing a good job of confusing me.

Still want to see what other Mafia you think there could be.

[Makaze]

On 4/20/2018 at 1:44 AM, Baldrick said:

LG was last around yesterday, just after the JB vig, claimed then bailed. One of his last posts the day before:

The first paragraph I feel potentially be a bus.

The second paragraph could be anticipating a ML, since JB was a major wagon at the time.

When JB got shot and Gaius started to be a wagon, he may well have felt trapped and decided to hope a power claim could save him.

I still want Arcanite to make a decision and put a vote down, but I'm feeling the Gaius = mafia narrative more now.

 

##vote: Lord Gaius

 

this is a good argument

and im not fond of role based clears

this all depends on EvilManManMan to contribute new thoughts. @EvanManManMan

[Makaze]

On 4/14/2018 at 3:56 PM, Shinori said:

Not really around at the moment as I'm not feeling well and I don't mean to Hijack your question towards Eclipse but can we stop role digging and fishing.

There have been a lot of claims and people asking for claims or people asking about night actions and I don't think it's all that helpful.  Unless we are planning to just outright massclaim today which I think is a terrible idea.

PS this interaction that Snike linked to to say "i did interact with Shinori"

what even is that, its not even about the game

may as well have shot himself in the foot

[Makaze]

On 4/14/2018 at 3:56 PM, Shinori said:

  On 4/14/2018 at 3:26 PM, Snike said:

@eclipse Regarding lewd comment; were you responsible for George entering my possession?

Not really around at the moment as I'm not feeling well and I don't mean to Hijack your question towards Eclipse but can we stop role digging and fishing.

There have been a lot of claims and people asking for claims or people asking about night actions and I don't think it's all that helpful.  Unless we are planning to just outright massclaim today which I think is a terrible idea.

there with quotes now

[Makaze]

oh wait it is about the game

but its not him pushing snike for it

not helpful anyway

[Makaze]

30 minutes ago, Refa said:

Why are you voting Omega if you think he's the ITP?

I don't see why LAST MAN STANDING Snike volunteers to lynch himself.

Because he's the ITP.

He's incredibly hard to kill at night and even if we kill Snike we can't be sure it lowers the kill power. Lynching Omega definitely makes things better for town.

[Killthestory]

i'm pretty sure i mentioned that arc's read looked tmi on me. then when i called them out, they said "i never townread you." they very clearly did, and i was gonna make the case when i got back. 

[Makaze]

3 minutes ago, Killthestory said:

i'm pretty sure i mentioned that arc's read looked tmi on me. then when i called them out, they said "i never townread you." they very clearly did, and i was gonna make the case when i got back. 

arc flipped town...

did you mean someone else?

[Killthestory]

Just now, Makaze said:

arc flipped town...

did you mean someone else?

wait

[Makaze]

SF just ate my post