Fire Emblem Heroes General Discussion and Links

[Kaden]

Just remembered something after seeing the battle victory screen for the Voting Gauntlet again and it was probably mentioned already. The scene shows Lilina and Odin with their regular, generic weapons instead of their new weapons. It's not that big of a deal, but it would have been nice of Lilina had her Forblaze, Odin had his Grimoire, etc.

[daisy jane]

1 hour ago, Hawk King said:

It also doesn't help that I just quit my job and walked away from a pretty good career path so I could move back to where I grew up (to be happier I hope). So I won't be spending any money on things I don't need for a while.

My Nanna is +atk/-HP.  Healers mostly run Miracle so HP isn't the most important stat and my Nanna has CC and Absorb staff.

 

If they handed out 5* copies of TT and GHB characters with every single event they did, it wouldn't affect orb purchases at all. None of those characters would be top Arena scoring units in the Arena even at +10 and as long as IS never put them as bonus units, people would still have to pull for new units.

Also a problem with the summoning pool is that it is just getting too big. And not just the 5* pool. With every new banner that gets added, the odds of getting older characters goes down. Look at @Zeo, he has been waiting for his final copy of Mathew for like almost 6 months now. Something Dragalia lost does is that it shows the odds of getting every single thing there is to summon, and some 3* and 4*s have boosted rates among banners as well as the featured 5*s. If a FE6 banner had higher chances to summon 3* and 4* units from FE6,  they could see more pulling from people who are just patiently hoarding their orbs and waiting until those extra copies they need just find their way to them.

I am 99% certain that characters do have higher odds of being pulled either on certain banners or certain times of the day. Some more transparency would be very nice if this was the case.

 

Ok, enough talking about my frustrations. Anything interesting going on with FEH? I see that Tailtiu is one of the biggest underdogs in VG history right now. And Poor Eirika is going to be a mass murdered for her A-skill until it drops to the 4* pool in a few months.

That Legendary banner has a lot of stuff I would love to pull for...

that wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. 
it's still RNG-y, but i find sometimes i get more "luck" at night (for me), vs. early in the morning. But yesterday morning i got several 5* units (of course was it Eirika and Ephiriam, no), but then today nothing. (minus 1 Summer Tana). 

Like i get it. but man the RNG bites the biscuit at times

 

[redlight]

2 hours ago, Hawk King said:

Ok, enough talking about my frustrations. Anything interesting going on with FEH? I see that Tailtiu is one of the biggest underdogs in VG history right now. And Poor Eirika is going to be a mass murdered for her A-skill until it drops to the 4* pool in a few months.

Spd Tactics intensifies

Anyways, I hope things sort out for you and wish you the best.

Edited November 1, 2018 by silveraura25

[Baldrick]

6 hours ago, Hawk King said:

 Right now FEH is just way to whale friendly.

Really? I don't know much about other gacha, but Heroes is apparently quite generous with its rates, and doesn't have currency only available by spending. The skill powercreep only extends to the crown-collecting sidequest; most of the challenge content has no-SI guides available or is Tactic Drills. The advantage of a turn-based strategy game is that if your strategy is good enough and you use the right tools, you can overcome an overwhelming numerical advantage that would be impossible in an RPG.

Heroes doesn't take advantage of Fire Emblem's other niche, the huge cast. Weapon Refinements and Forging Bonds dialogue with old units should happen once a week, and they should cut out the alt deluge and release only New Heroes banner, especially if OCs are going to start taking up spots. I don't think more free 5* are the answer, most players have more 5* units than they can reasonably use.

Edited November 1, 2018 by Baldrick

[redlight]

Something that IS fails to realize is that challenging maps are what many FE fans like about the series. IS is more invested in training tower reskins than enganging maps. I wish they'd give us daily developer challenges or something. That way dying won't matter as opposed to the regular hero battles that players with less resources/strategic ability have trouble with

[Vaximillian]

13 minutes ago, silveraura25 said:

Something that IS fails to realize is that challenging maps are what many FE fans like about the series. 

Somehow you didn’t like relay defence.

[redlight]

1 minute ago, Vaximillian said:

Somehow you didn’t like relay defence.

I didn't like abyssal, which clouded my judgement of the mode at first. It is a breath of fresh air opposed to auto battle domains

[Ice Dragon]

4 hours ago, Hawk King said:

I am 99% certain that characters do have higher odds of being pulled either on certain banners or certain times of the day.

I'm 100% certain that what you're seeing is just random variation since you won't have the thousands of pulls you'd need for the law of large numbers to take hold.

I mean, I'm pretty sure the dinner table at one of my friends' house has like a +100 Luck modifier on it.

[Hawk King]

3 minutes ago, Ice Dragon said:

I'm 100% certain that what you're seeing is just random variation since you won't have the thousands of pulls you'd need for the law of large numbers to take hold.

I mean, I'm pretty sure the dinner table at one of my friends' house has like a +100 Luck modifier on it.

If I am pulling red and a circle happens to have three red orbs, the odds of pulling the same 4* character on all on the orbs should be lower than pulling three 5* characters. It happens all the freaking time. I have done large summoning sessions with 200+ pulls. Every time there are certain units that come in large bunches. I have seen video of other people doing mass summon sessions and the same thing happens.

Whether or not my 5* rate is extremely high, or it is extremely low, there is still always a hand full of characters for every color that come in bunches.

Until I see confirmation from the developers one way or the other, I will remain 99% sure that is the case. And I do realize that the 1% that it is not the case is also a very real possibility.

1 hour ago, Baldrick said:

Really? I don't know much about other gacha, but Heroes is apparently quite generous with its rates, and doesn't have currency only available by spending. The skill powercreep only extends to the crown-collecting sidequest; most of the challenge content has no-SI guides available or is Tactic Drills. The advantage of a turn-based strategy game is that if your strategy is good enough and you use the right tools, you can overcome an overwhelming numerical advantage that would be impossible in an RPG.

Heroes doesn't take advantage of Fire Emblem's other niche, the huge cast. Weapon Refinements and Forging Bonds dialogue with old units should happen once a week, and they should cut out the alt deluge and release only New Heroes banner, especially if OCs are going to start taking up spots. I don't think more free 5* are the answer, most players have more 5* units than they can reasonably use.

Maybe it is just the competitor in me, but to me the Arena and staying in Tier 21 is the focus and everything else is the fluff. In which case yeah, whales have all of the premium characters and skills at their disposal. Changes were made because people just stuck the bonus units in the corner and cleared every map with their 3 "core" team members. The bonus points for kills backfired because unless they are +10 you pretty much have to feed all 20 kills to the bonus unit. Advantage to the whales. And having all max SP skills also lowers the + of kills you need to feed to the bonus unit. Again, advantage to the whales.

As far as the generous rates go, that goes all out the window when you need to pull 11 copies for +10 units. More if they have a good skill for fodder.

I get that they are trying to make money and they have a great thing going for achieving that, but having popular characters like Camus, Joshua, and all of the others limited is not fun for their fans. Whales will always +10 new units and others will shell out for their newly released waifus. As far as clearing the PvE content, I don't think anyone has ever pulled on a new banner to help them clear that stuff.

More frequent weapon refinements and more forging bonds would be nice. Aside from Legendary heroes, alts should be limited to seasonals only.

And to fix the problem of not releasing enough character fast enough they could release new characters as 4* units with underwhelming stats and skills alongside the 5* focus units. This would get more characters into the game in a more timely fashion. At the current rate we are going it will take several years just to get the top half of all possible units in.

[Tree]

1 hour ago, Ice Dragon said:

I mean, I'm pretty sure the dinner table at one of my friends' house has like a +100 Luck modifier on it.

Do the chairs also have any effects? Depending on their shape, they might even be stackable...

[Ice Dragon]

2 hours ago, Hawk King said:

If I am pulling red and a circle happens to have three red orbs, the odds of pulling the same 4* character on all on the orbs should be lower than pulling three 5* characters. It happens all the freaking time. I have done large summoning sessions with 200+ pulls. Every time there are certain units that come in large bunches. I have seen video of other people doing mass summon sessions and the same thing happens.

Have you actually kept count of the exact numbers of times this happens compared to how often it doesn't happen?

The human brain is wired up specifically to recognize patterns and is less likely to remember events (or the frequency of events) that don't conform to a perceived pattern.

For all I know, you could be saying it "happens all the time" when it really happens only just often enough for you to take notice of it. Furthermore, it's also likely to perceive it to happen more often when you simply pull more often in that you're really perceiving volume, but interpreting it instead as frequency.

Without hard data, it's not possible to determine what's happening.

[daisy jane]

if you watch PM1's summoning videos, sometimes all he gets is like Hana's. (or whatevers). 

[Ice Dragon]

37 minutes ago, daisy jane said:

if you watch PM1's summoning videos, sometimes all he gets is like Hana's. (or whatevers). 

The probability of pulling a 4-star Hana from the current Legendary Hero banner is about 1 in 54. This means that even after 540 pulls (not counting non-red pulls), you're expected to have an average of 10 4-star Hanas, but the standard deviation of the probability distribution is 3. This means the distribution is rather wide (for example, it would not be at all unexpected to get only 7 copies of 4-star Hana, but 13 copies of 4-star Lon'qu despite them having the same probability).

You need an absolutely astronomical number of pulls to have definitive proof that the probabilities are rigged in any way.

5,400 pulls, for example, gives you an average of 100 4-star Hanas with a standard deviation of only 10. The 7-Hanas-but-13-Lon'qus example from above would be comparable in "expectability" to getting 90 4-star Hanas and 110 4-star Lon'qus. Notice that while 13 Lon'qus is nearly double 7 Hanas, 110 Lon'qus is less than 25% more than 90 Hanas.

 

By the way, 540 pulls while sniping red is on the order of about 2,500-3,000 orbs (1,300-1,600 USD).

[DehNutCase]

The main problem with probability is that usually people use the frequentist interpretation rather than the Bayesian interpretation.

 

 

 

The problem with the frequentist interpretation is that it doesn't take into account the base chance of the sun exploding (or, in our case, the base chance of the devs randomly deciding to code artificial patterns into our pulls).

 

If the sun explodes on, say, 1 day out of 365 billion (365 * 10^9) days, then the sun exploded hypothesis has a 1/(365 * 10^9) chance of being correct beforehand, while the dice rolled double 6 hypothesis has a 1/36 chance beforehand.*

*We're pretending for the moment that I got the real chance the sun would explode from God or something, and that a year is exactly 365 days long. And that I'm using fair dice.

 

Assuming we only use the silly ass sun-explosion detector once a day, we'll detect, correctly, that the sun exploded 1 time in a billion years, and report it truthfully 35/36 of the time. (That is, in 36 billion years we'll have 35 true reports of the sun exploding, and 1 false report that the sun didn't explode).

We'll also have 1 billion * 365(days/year)/ 36 - 1/36 false reports that the sun exploded over 1 billion years. (That is, in 36 billion years we'll have 365 * 999,999,999 false reports of the sun exploding.)

 

In other words, the probability that the sun exploded, from the Bayesian interpretation, is a mere 35 / (365 * 999,999,999)---or about one in ten billion. It's slightly less than 35 times better than what we started with, but our starting odds were so shit that it doesn't even matter.

 

Similarly, the starting odds of the devs caring enough about people pulling to program in patterns is infinitesimal. And because the odds are infinitesimal, any test with a non-infinitesimal false positive rate will return hilarious amounts of false positives. You need a false positive rate equal to the initial odds of the thing you're trying to find to have a 50/50 shot at finding the thing when your test reports success. Anything worse than that returns a confidence ratio of (base rate):(false positive rate) or (base rate)/(base rate + false positive rate) odds, which is total dog shit most of the time, considering we consider a false positive rate of 5%, five whole fucking percent, to be good enough to be 'scientific.'

If we're looking for something with 1% odds that 5% will give us about 5 false positives to 1 correct positive, which is 1/6. If we're looking for something with .1% it's about 50 false positives to 1 correct positive, etc. etc.

 

(The 1/36 dice rolling sun-explosion detector improved our odds by about 35 for a pair of dice, in other words, we'd need around log base 35 (365,000,000,000), or about 7.6 pairs of dice, for it to detect our sun exploding with any reliability. That is, it needs to lie when 15 6 sided dice all land on 6, telling the truth all other times, for it to be a good detector. This is a false positive rate of about 1 in four hundred and seventy billion. It needs to be hilariously accurate because what we're looking for is hilariously unlikely.)

 

The main question, then, is how hilariously incompetent do you think the devs of FEH are that their manipulation of pull odds is detectable with statistical methods with sky high false positive rates? (False positive rate being, in this case, the chance of the result naturally occurring if the game is 'fair.')

Because if you think they're less incompetent than your false positive rate then you shouldn't take even money on a bet of whether or not they actually fiddled with the odds. (Although I would be willing to bet against you for even money, for obvious reasons.)

[Baldrick]

4 hours ago, Hawk King said:

Maybe it is just the competitor in me, but to me the Arena and staying in Tier 21 is the focus and everything else is the fluff. In which case yeah, whales have all of the premium characters and skills at their disposal. Changes were made because people just stuck the bonus units in the corner and cleared every map with their 3 "core" team members. The bonus points for kills backfired because unless they are +10 you pretty much have to feed all 20 kills to the bonus unit. Advantage to the whales. And having all max SP skills also lowers the + of kills you need to feed to the bonus unit. Again, advantage to the whales.

As far as the generous rates go, that goes all out the window when you need to pull 11 copies for +10 units. More if they have a good skill for fodder.

I get that they are trying to make money and they have a great thing going for achieving that, but having popular characters like Camus, Joshua, and all of the others limited is not fun for their fans. Whales will always +10 new units and others will shell out for their newly released waifus. As far as clearing the PvE content, I don't think anyone has ever pulled on a new banner to help them clear that stuff.

I understand being competitive, I'm F2P and I was aiming for the highest arena tier until the bonus unit changes and powercreep made it impossible for me. As you say, the whales have the advantages and the premium skills, but as you also said, you have to fodder off units you might want to +10.

Needing to pull 11 copies is exactly why I think FEH is whale unfriendly. In Dragalia Lost, whales need the same number of copies as F2P, and can get more discounted summons. In FEH, if a player is pulling for score, a +0 bonus unit doubles their score, a +10 bonus unit doubles it and adds 20. For a F2P who wants to maintain their tier, they only need 1 copy. For a whale wanting to stay in T21, they need up to 11 copies.

4 hours ago, Hawk King said:

And to fix the problem of not releasing enough character fast enough they could release new characters as 4* units with underwhelming stats and skills alongside the 5* focus units. This would get more characters into the game in a more timely fashion. At the current rate we are going it will take several years just to get the top half of all possible units in.

That's basically what they did at launch, right? Heroes' problem started when IS realised how profitable it is.

[Sunwoo]

Bartre's axe name is making me lol.

Also, Florina gets a refine. I hope it'll be more efficient than the sapphire lance I have on her.

[Vaximillian]

2 minutes ago, Sunwoo said:

Bartre's axe name is making me lol.

Also, Florina gets a refine. I hope it'll be more efficient than the sapphire lance I have on her.

AXE OF VIRILITY

It’s likely to be a better heavy spear. Likely even with a killer effect because that’s what all prfs have these days.

Also, lost Macedonian princess finally gets on the banner. Still needs to be demoted, though.

[Sunwoo]

Who are you talking about, specifically?

Also, good to see that Saber (FINALLY) will get to be on a banner.

[Roflolxp54]

Rip Luke. Saber is getting onto a new banner.

Quite curious about Florina's Lance. I do want to merge her someday.

[Vaximillian]

4 minutes ago, Sunwoo said:

Who are you talking about, specifically?

Also, good to see that Saber (FINALLY) will get to be on a banner.

I am talking about Saber.

[Nanima]

Still wating for the day Hinata and Oboro get refines. Preferably before I pull a perfect IV copy of Hinata and sacrifice my only Lene to him.

Edited November 2, 2018 by Nanima

[JSND Alter Dragon Boner]

20 minutes ago, Vaximillian said:

I am talking about Saber.

Yup, i snickered back then when i realized Saber is essentially Minerva -2 ATK and even then only because of lack of Prf

 

Hes such a lost princess he lost his hauteclere!

[Vince777]

Shanna's Lance and Florina's Lance.

They're getting original. 

[Sunwoo]

19 minutes ago, Vaximillian said:

I am talking about Saber.

Oh, that, lol. Saber even has red(dish) hair!

EDIT: @Nanima I would like if Hinata got a really cool prf sword. Hopefully something that boosts his defenses when being attacked, since his stats look like he'd run an EP-style build best. (Mine's even +def -HP, lol.) Oboro getting a refine would be cool too, but I'm actually satisfied with the forged slaying lance I have on her. BONFIRE EVERY TURN

Edited November 2, 2018 by Sunwoo

[Kaden]

All I could think of when I saw Bartre's axe's name.

Bartre's virile, all right. And his axe too.

I'm guessing with the name, it might have Panic Ploy or something that boosts his attack and/or defense. Watch it have effective damage against armors and cavalry and Death Blow 4 or Sturdy Blow 3. Yes, 3, not 2, so Atk/Def+6 when initiating, as unique refinement. Double Death Blow 4 and a +Atk Bartre would have 71 attack on initiation which becomes 106.5 against armors and cavalry. Yeah, they'd be screwed without WTA and defense buffs.

Other than being a copy of Dauntless Lance, but with Study Stance or a personal Brave Axe as a reference to him having it in his inventory in Binding Blade, I can't think of what his axe would do.

Edited November 2, 2018 by Kaden