Twitch Plays Pokemon Mafia NOC(15p)(GAME OVER TOWN WINS)

[SB.]

I realised that I should probably post because I'm pretty sure that I'm in class at deadline and am busy for a lot of tomorrow. Just reading stuff addressed to me, will try and read more after my presentation but tbh I can't promise anything.

@athena_57, I wouldn't try to meta KTS ftr. If you don't have experience of them playing multiple alignments then  you don't know what's a playstyle thing and what's going to be linked to their alignment. Just vote them if they do generally scummy things.

Imo the first thing you linked is null because I can see most of it as general playstyle philosophy, aside from him iirc never engaging Refa, but Refa hasn't been active and KTS hasn't either since then I think so it's difficult. Also I agreed with his second post, I thought bunching KTS in with Evan at that point was kind of ridiculous.

Also Michelaar was kind of lynchbait that game and Refa went in on defending him outright. I'd say the scenarios were similar enough that I'd say Refa/RAD probably isn't a thing? At least, I don't think we should be lynching them for associations with one another which it feels like a lot of the cases are founded on.

@Ice Sage, I don't know why (if?) you suspect Refa here tbh? Do you think that their vote on Evan was bad (just because they flipped town)? Because townies can push on townies too and I'm not really getting why specifically.

@Refa, I think that Randa's progression on Shinori could have been good if he had other stances to supplement it. Imo it's easier to fake progression while you're actually talking to someone and quotesnipping them, and I feel like the interactions have mostly been led by Shinori as it is.  The fact that I had to prod him into looking at KTS is still a huge question mark for me, and the only explanation is "tunnel vision too strong" which I can't really let him slide for because of his distinct lack of anything else.

Ftr I am less bothered by Refa now because I skimmed the read of his post and it looks solid, there's more life to the post than I would expect from demotivated!scum Refa. I think they have too much depth to their reasoning for it to all be faked, especially when a lot of the opinions means that he's swimming against the current. Unless we're suspecting every scum in the game rn I can't see him going for this kind of play as mafia.

I kind of feel like Bart is coasting but I can't tell if he's just crazy busy or not. Listposts are easy content to make and I feel like most of his reads are pretty basic. It feels like he's playing to avoid sticking out rather than to catch scum.

@Shinori , "tunnel mode" is not a valid reason, and neither is your reason for wanting to get Refa first. If RAD flips scum then people are going to want to lynch Refa tomorrow anyway probably based off of interactions aside from like... me, and probably one or two other people I'm forgetting. Please take a step back because I feel like your case has gone completely off the rails and lost its reasoning and I can't tell if this is town!tunnel or scum being dismissive. I think most of your posting has been fine but you're so insistent on this it just doesn't feel reasonable, like you're trying really hard to force scum!Refa as the truth No Matter What.

[Eurykins]

Post 1/5 (Why can't I get more posts?  )

Holy shit I did not realize that Anarchy phase was only 48 hours, oops. I may have voted for Anarchy because I was interested in the game mechanics. ._.

Ty for the prod.

Looking back over how the last day phase ended:

1. Mack's 2 posts that ended up in a vote for Evan felt bad to me. Because between his two posts, I garnered:

First Post wrt Evan:

"Evan was an easy read so I finished it first, most of his content is complete fluff or meaningless nonsense that just makes me think he is trolling rather than playing the game properly"

The only serious post is one where he is chainsaw defending himself against Ice sage, which in itself isn't good but his counter points aren't even good, I find it rather funny that he is calling out Ice sage for not putting any thought to the big events that have happened when he hasn't talked about any of them himself and hasn't given any of his own thoughts other than Ice is scummy.

So chainsaw thing, and tunneling on Ice. Former can be noted via scum intent, sure, but the latter is capable from any alignment.

Second Post wrt Randa slot:

"was short of time so it wasn't exactly in depth but basically it seems almost like they are faking contribution, they have a lot of rather large posts but most of them seem to be them defending themselves, Their opinions also seem to jump a lot, one minute they are talking about shinori being scummy and the next they jump to refa and then kts, the progression did not feel natural to me, I didn't really see a reason that they suddenly decided shiori was not scummy and kts was"

Fake contribution: Falsifying or otherwise altering cases or making up points that don't even exist. Obviously derives more from scum intent/interest than townside.

Defending themselves (moreso often than not): Usually signs of more self-interest, survival, etc. And more frequency than scum hunting = not actually being productive for townside.

Illogical progression of cases/opinions on people that felt unnatural (possibly forced?): Often a sign of people scrambling to grasp at cases/reads without really thinking or putting much actual effort to look into someone. Superficial cases that can often bear tainted or misconstrued information and falsified cases, which often leads to an inability to connect the dots (because half of what's being put forth is simply untrue, making their cases moot).

Maybe it's just me, but why is Evan picked over Randa? As Shinori stated in his first post this day phase, there seems to be far more reason and possibly even more scum intent coming from the notions against Randa than Evan, but the former is still picked? This is easy wagoning/vote sitting and with Evan's flip this gameplay looks even worse to me atm.

2. RAD's vote on Evan, while understandable in a 1v1 situation in terms of end-of-the-day lynch candidates, still doesn't sit well with me. The post  also had a weird vibe that could easily emulate vote dropping and running, and doesn't really offer anything else new. Part of me expected more of a response post as to why we should vote Evan over their slot, as opposed to just dropping a vote and disappearing. 

PEDIT: (Regarding today's Anarchy phase) Why is the person who claims to have /infinite post numbers find the need to wallpost? Is this a norm coming from RAD gameplay? If not, this feels more harmful/counter-productive in terms of gameplay, and is giving us no new information under a pretense of a wall post forming. 

3. Something is bugging me while re-reading down SB's ISO from last day phase (Some items I've commented on before, but will recap for the entire picture.)

> This post: "Refa's recent post was good but I don't think he makes it as scum unless his buddies are also very disconnected from the game? I think his demotivation is going to be genuine regardless of alignment but I think if he had people talking to him he'd produce something more substantial while he's already under some suspicion. I think as town he'll get his groove back eventually so I wouldn't worry about him yet." Opts to defend Refa by correlating his gameplay to require his buddies to be "disconnected" from the game (in which case I'd assume that implies inactivity or low amounts of activity levels).

> Already covered before, but this post also was pretty bad in terms of logic IMO. And also, for stating, "Tbh I just think it's too blatantly bad for scum!Refa to post. " (implying you don't really think Refa's being scummy or you don't have a solid scum read on Refa at this point) the post ends with "Maybe he could be demotivated scum with Randa and some other inactive I guess? But then I'd still lynch Randa first."  So much non-commital reads on Refa slot.

> "I think scum!Refa would feel bad making that post because he'd be letting his scumbuddies down." If he's as demotivated as you say he is, why would he care as demotivated scum?

> Was an easy way of casting suspect on Evan and offer a negative read on Evan, but also left the backdoor open to be non-commital with it. 

> " I still think his last post was too blatantly bad to come from scum unless he's like... scum with Randa and some other hard inactive player but it feels too specific. " Okay, so you're continuously stating that Refa COULD be scum, in a very specific/small chance scenario, but otherwise playing too poorly to be scum. Read on Refa slot = ????

> This post actually pings me a lot.

1. "Randa is still scummy because aside from the Shinori vote, pretty much everything they've done has been in response to pressure on them. I get that he's kind of been the focus of the game so far, but it doesn't even look like he's trying to look elsewhere. It feels like he's in full defence mode and I really feel like his stance on KTS is super convenient." Okay, cool- fairly consistent read on Randa slot, and ok points against him.

> "Ftr this read (wrt Randa) is kind of dropping off in priority for me but I'm not sure if it's just because he hasn't posted which is ugh." Wait, what? How did the read on Randa dwindle just because the slot chose to go inactive after multiple people began to suspect the slot?????

2. "I don't get the JB townreads, is it just on effort? Tbh I ran out of effort trying to read his post and I don't get where his lynch prio is beyond Evan" This seems to argue against any JB townread notions with the side note of possibly not having fully read into the player slot? Seems similar along the lines to where Refa spoke up against Baldrick/SB for casing Randa without having read into Randa's slot earlier in D1.

> This post feels off to me. "RAD is somewhere in the US iirc with a non-degenerate sleep schedule so I can understand why they haven’t posted yet. It doesn’t make me feel better about them but I wouldn’t lynch them just for that when they prob need time to get a real catchup done." This comment was made in response to Baldrick stating that RAD was online for a time and did not post anything in-thread. In addition, what I dislike the most is that SB makes it seem like people would be voting for Randa/RAD slot moreso for inactivity than anything else when that was not the basis of the cases regarding the Randa slot. This also offers a door that SB uses to not pursue Randa/RAD slot, in lieu of the Evan wagon. (Which feels worse with Evan's flip.)

SB's ISO is basically everywhere- and the reads are questionable at best? I also dislike the distancing away from the Randa/RAD wagon, because it felt extremely weak of a reasoning to not pursue/support fully the wagon, even moreso with the end flip result of D1 Evan Mislynch. I'm feeling worse about this slot come D2.

4. Nothing Baldrick said during the last of D1 pinged me. He's fine.

5. Ice Sage's ISO Dive:

> Questionable Rapier scum read? Especially given an inactive slot?

> Several issues with this post.

1. First sentence responding to the question: " Who are in your opinion the two most scummy people on the Evan wagon? " : Elemina/Mack2, and Refa. I can understand the reasonings given for Mack/Elemina's slot. I don't quite follow the Refa point(s).

2. Response towards Conqueror: "RAD is one of my scumreads now. Refa is leaning there, but i need to see more. Haven't read him fully. I still don't think SB is scum, and Shinori  Hasn;t done anything suspicious imo." 

Wait. If RAD was one of the scum reads currently, and Refa is "leaning" scum read, how are Elemina/Refa then the top 2 scum reads/scummy people on the Evan wagon in the first question? RAD is being scumread in the second response (not leaning), AND was on the Evan wagon. I don't see how this can be the case. 

3. Later comment: "Refa is leaning on scum for me but still unsure. I can see why others think he is scummy. he hasn't posted in D2 at all and i want to see more." This statement, along with the inconsistency above, is bothering me a lot. Leaning scum read on Refa, without having fully read him (and seemingly agreeing with/sheeping other people's thoughts/cases wrt Refa), but then still states uncertainty. This pings me as being very non-commital with the scum read on Refa, and offers little to no insight from your own player slot for as much of a scum read as you place him as. (If he was really someone of a priority/scum read interest, why are you not reading into him?)

I don't like Ice's slot currently. Was one of the easier vote sitters on the Evan wagon and is only flipping onto RAD as an actual hard scum read once Evan flipped. Opportunistic timing is opportunistic and some things just aren't adding up with the rest of the priorities given.

RAD's slot still looks bad coming into D2. Hasn't change from D1. Still Good Lynch Candidate to me. Refa is also in the boat of "Not having moved much of anywhere in priority since D1", and as far as I can tell, Athena hasn't changed much either.

Mack/Elemina's slot looks bad in how the Evan lynch went down. Both players in that slot did pretty scummish means of voting, and both were done in a very easy manner. Good Lynch Candidate.

 Ice Sage and SB have both negatively pinged me since the end of D1 and upon re-reading their ISO's. Are both OK Consolidation Candidates for today.

The first four hold top priority/interest for me today. The latter 2 are only if the top 3 somehow get dismissed/bypassed for any reason. Vote will be on RAD until further notice.

##Vote: RAD

[Shinori]

1 hour ago, SB. said:

 

@Shinori , "tunnel mode" is not a valid reason, and neither is your reason for wanting to get Refa first. If RAD flips scum then people are going to want to lynch Refa tomorrow anyway probably based off of interactions aside from like... me, and probably one or two other people I'm forgetting. Please take a step back because I feel like your case has gone completely off the rails and lost its reasoning and I can't tell if this is town!tunnel or scum being dismissive. I think most of your posting has been fine but you're so insistent on this it just doesn't feel reasonable, like you're trying really hard to force scum!Refa as the truth No Matter What.

Post 4.

And like I said I'm perfectly fine with a Rad lynch first.  Considering my last post actually adds reasoning and strength to my refa read moreso than anything else.

OMGUS, blatant sheeping, lack of proper reads until recently, lack of content, No follow up on certain questions, ignoring some responses, chainsaw defense(I still count this whether Rad is town or scum.)  Completely ignoring the Evilman wagon(Apparently he thinks it's all town basically?).  Also according to rand this is me "laying into randa"

Quote

 

So you have a gut scum read on me but are only voting SB for 'activity purposes'?  Vote me then?  Why is your vote still on SB?  Wouldn't that be faking activity?  This is a weird thought process.

Are you gut scum reading me?

Are you scum reading SB?

 

Here is the same link Refa posted saying this entire post was 'laying into randa' yet voting him intsead.

Also to be frank SB I hardly count your read at all related to Refa.  When your defense for him MULTIPLE times during the first day was to say "He's too scummy to be scum." and "It's just too obviously bad." I instantly start hand waving your entire read on the slot.  This has been happening multiple times in the past few games where a scum member is blatantly scummy and people handwave it saying "It's just too obvious."  Walrein in cup head mafia.  Athena in ICBINSFMM.  Just two small examples for you off the top of my head where that exact thing happened.

I'm fine voting Rad and I'm fine lynching Rad, but I also assume I'm going to die (if I don't then cool.) and when I do die I don't want the entire refa suspicion to just vanish since I am the MAIN person pushing him and some of my reasons are being handwaved or ignored for poor reasoning.  Like stating he can't be scum with Randa because you looked at FEH refa!scumplay when that doesn't fully pertain to this game.  Especially if he is potentially less motivated during this game than that game.  Especially if him and his scum team aren't communicating as well in this game.  You mentioned him being 'disconnected' with his scum team.  If his buddies consist of Randa/Ice/KTS or any 2 of those people, I could easily see that happening.  Ice has ZERO presense in this game, when I was a buddy with KTS he only talked at specific times generally(we know Refa's sleep schedule) and quite a lot of the time he would just default things to "Just gonna town it up." And I get a vibe that Randa wasn't doing too much in the mafia QT/discord/whatever if he is scum considering his day 1 play.

Obviously these buddies up above are hypothetical but they also fit extremely well and I believe there are multiple times where there are associations between these players that LOOK bad.

1 hour ago, SB. said:

Ftr I am less bothered by Refa now because I skimmed the read of his post and it looks solid, there's more life to the post than I would expect from demotivated!scum Refa. I think they have too much depth to their reasoning for it to all be faked, especially when a lot of the opinions means that he's swimming against the current. Unless we're suspecting every scum in the game rn I can't see him going for this kind of play as mafia.

Interesting how you also feel he's not quite that demotivated or he has more to his posts than him being demotivated.  Via made a similar post where she stated she felt he wasn't being lazy but I would like to point out that all of that came to life once he was being pressured by me and people were looking at him.  Why is it that because he started reacting once under pressure of a lynch potentially, and under the eyes of multiple people, that he gets townie points?  Frankly I say look at potential lynch candidates and ask yourself: Do Refa's read's make sense from a town perspective?  Currently his top 3 scum reads are people that are scum reading him.  They are also actually prioritized in the order from me(wanting to lynch him the most) going down to his other scum reads in AThena > Elemina and a slight suspicion on Eury.  How is that not suspicions?  Why is Rad/Randa town?  How are they town?  He was defending Randa yesterday through all of the scummy behavior that was happening and now he's basically saying he feels they are town and I don't believe this.  You say it has too much depth and reasoning to be faked, I say it's an elaborate fake, that's just the difference of opinions.

Like quite literally here:

Day 1 votals
(7) Evan: Vi-astra, Killthestory, Ice Sage, Refa, Jaybee, Elemina, RADicate
(5) RADicate: Athena_57, Baldrick, Eurykins, Bartozio, Shinori
(1) Refa: Rapier
(1) Ice Sage: EvanManManMan
(1) Athena_57: SB

 

Red names are who Refa thinks is scum.  Now let me ask you this;

Why doesn't scum!Shinori jump on the Evan wagon especially considering I was fine with the lynch and stated I was fine with the lynch multiple times?  Why doesn't Athena or myself swap over to the Evan wagon at an earlier date?  @SB. Put Refa's reads under a microscope and really think about it from Town!Refa perspective and tell me how he truthfully comes to those reads.  His gameplay so far is MASSIVELY different than ICBINSFMM and his reads in that game were EXTREMELY accurate if I remember correctly.  You've been comparing this game to Scum!refa from FEH mafia but why not compare it to Town!refa from the other games and tell me how you feel about it.

If you are going to argue that Refa is town I want to hear reasonings not pertaining to the amount of effort he is or is not putting forth into the game, this is frankly NAI.  I don't wanna hear reasonings pertaining to "It's too obviously scummy that it just can't be scum." I want to hear logical reasons for why he isn't scum; when I say this I mean:

Why can't he be buddies with Rad/Randa?
Where is the logic in his voting process?
Look at his progression of his read on me that dates back to day 1 where he quizzed me upon me pressuring him, then stated a lot of my responses were fine and proceeded to unvote me VERY quickly.  Now he's back to saying I have "Obvious scum intent"  If I have obvious scum intent why didn't he push me more yesterday?  Does it have to do witht he fact that a lot of people were giving him flak for his read/vote on me?  Scum would definitely react in that manner.  Scum would definitely attempt to backpedal as fast as they can when they make a vote that gets them under a lot of pressure.  Refa's vote on me starts here. IT continues on for just like the next 2 or 3 pages I think and I really recommend reading it again he unvotes me here.  Do you think the interaction between me and refa is town v town?  He voted me at 8:30 pm and then unvoted me the following morning and you can tell how weak his case was/is on me during day 1 because he even states in his unvote post that the only thing bothering him was my case on him.  My case on Refa is not reliant on Rad flipping scum and is not weak and I have not lost my thought process on this.  There is more reasoning and more logic in my read on Refa than almost anyone else in this game.

I actually suggest a lot of people reread the interactions between me and him because his vote on me followed by the small exchange and the unvote on me is a classic backpedal when a scum votes someone widely read as town initially.  It's super interesting that as soon as people start going "I'm feeling better about Refa." his first response is to case me and the other people pushing him.

[Shinori]

13 hours left in phase end. I asked marth.

Post 5/5

I have a guilty on Refa.  So yeah. Vote this person.  Hope this explains why I said I wanted to vote Refa over Rad today.

@Eurykins @SB. @Elemina @Conqueror @Ice Sage @athena_57 @Killthestory @Baldrick @RADicate @Jaybee @Bartozio

@Refa Wanna tell us the rest of your buddies as we move forward?  :)

[Refa]

2/6

Bullshit

[Bluedoom]

PHASE PAUSE

[Bluedoom]

You see the darkness of anarchy being illuminated... and you find... the votals???? 

VOTALS

RADicate(5):athena, baldrick, Bartozio, eurykins, sb

Refa(2):elemina, shinori 

athena(1):conqueror

ice sage(1):killthestory

shinori (1):refa

not voting:jb, ice sage,  RADicate. 

[Bluedoom]

Phase resumes. 

[Refa]

3/6

^That's my role.  Should be obvious town, there's literally zero scum benefit to it existing.  I'm not going to confirm/deny any additional information about my role, so deal with it.

I asked Marth if investigation results were guaranteed to be accurate, and he said yes.  I then asked him if that precluded the existence of a tailor, and he said "this game isn't bastard and everything happens for a reason!" which basically confirms nothing.  EIther Shinori is lying, or there is a Tailor.  I don't get why Scum!Shinori tunnels me and lies about a guilty (I can see Shinori being ballsy enough to lie about a guilty, but all of the proceeding play makes me think that he genuinely believed he caught me), it'd just make him look bad tomorrow.  Even if I get lynched and he somehow doesn't die tonight, I wouldn't go after him.  Tailor on me is fucking obnoxious why would you even add this role in your game Marf.  The problem is who would tailor me...my gut guess would be SB/Baldrick/Eurykins, honestly, just because those are people who'd be fearful of me being cleared.  RAD is still a bad lynch.

JB/Ice Sage not having voted despite saying that they would is ??? but it could just be laziness on their part; I know I didn't vote immediately even after I said I would.

##Unvote

##Vote: Athena

[Killthestory]

Day 1 votals
(7) Evan: Vi-astra, Killthestory, Ice Sage, Refa, Jaybee, Elemina, RADicate
(5) RADicate: Athena_57, Baldrick, Eurykins, Bartozio, Shinori
(1) Refa: Rapier
(1) Ice Sage: EvanManManMan
(1) Athena_57: SB

 

reread game, gonna give analysis on phone while reading. anarchy phase sorta sucks mega nuts, and the only two ppl i really wanted to play with are dead. that sucks. i'm unmotivated. whatever, let's play.

via kill on wagon implies scum off wagon. that means we're not... why is this bigger. fuck it, we'll keep going. that means we're not gonna see anything more than 2 wolves on the wagon. that's a good start. i also think a lot of the hop on's were scummy and deserve appropriate reactions. my likeliest scum on wagon are refa, elemina. ice sage is a close 3rd, but i want to see more from the elemina slot while i waffle hardcore.

refa, reading over the game, picked it up much in a way i'd expect from a demotivated wolf. not much day presence, and his wolf bros were probably gettin on his case. needing to make reads and content, he stepped into the thread, probably skimmed, and made surface level reads. everything he's said here has been so safe compared to town him, but i read earlier i can't use meta if i don't know how ppl play as both alignments. whatever, fuck you, i'm going balls deep. his reads aren't crazy, his contents ok, and his lack of desire to play is reminiscent of my own. that's the problem. everything is ok when refa's general demeanor even shows he's a strong player. 

mack sort of made a wolfy catchup that not a single person commented on. not gonna go into the replacement, but elemina came in and hasn't posted. wolves wuld be pushing that if it was villa. it hasn't even been close to pushed.

off wagon, i'll give you two wolves. bart on the radicate wagon. sb or rapier for last wolves. i'll get into them later, got a projecy to do.

[Killthestory]

didn't even need to reread refa got outted

ugh. ##vote Refa

i already did nka and looked at wagons. actually, wait, no i didn't do NKA. consider this my nka.

via liked athena, me, and some other ppl i cant remember as townies. via wanted refa, ice, and randa died along with evan. there u go. 

k i'll check associations tmr or when i'm in the mood.

[Eurykins]

Page 2/5

You use up all of your goddamned posts, and only say in the final one you got a guilty Shinori. Damnit you. :(

Btw, inconsistent votes on the votals VS. the thread notions (Not Marth's fault, but this means that players aren't doing what they say they are).

Quote

My gut feeling was wrong and i don't want to make the same mistake again

##Vote: RAD

Ice Sage is not voting anyone currently. For someone intent on scum reading RAD openly in-thread, there is no vote on the slot. I find this peculiar, and possibly scummy, given the fact that, before the votals reveal, we would've never known whether you followed through with the RAD vote or not.

Quote

Take it as my vote being on Elemina first.

JB is not voting anyone currently.

Also, the fact that RAD has not said anything nor voted at this point seems extremely bad IMO. 

I would not fully disregard Refa's claimed ability as being town-sided only, personally. Votal reveal only does so much, and it also calls into question whether the revealed votals are also liable to being changed/adjusted (what votes appear and on whom they appear) in order to throw us off. 

[Conqueror]

2/5

Okay, I trashed my previous post in light of the new information. @Refa, why would that role be obvious town? It's pretty alignment-neutral since scum have no incentive to move around votes until the very end of the day, so it's not going to catch anything. I looked over the ruleset again and I don't think hammers before deadline are even possible in anarchy. I'm wondering what the odds are of a tailor or equivalent role happening to target either you or Shinori and I don't think the odds are that great.

tbh I still kinda want to vote RAD off a cliff given he produced absolutely nothing when I think town him would at least give us something to work with. Refa, why do you think RAD is a bad vote? You've mentioned this repeatedly but the biggest reason I found for this was that he's a "consensus vote." I thought that logic for thinking the Evan wagon was bad and I think it's bad logic for thinking the RAD wagon is bad. A lot of people haven't budged on the slot because it's produced almost nothing since yesterday so we're basically on Day 1 Part 2. RAD himself has given enough excuses and avoided posting for long enough that I think this is a pretty good chance to hit scum. He didn't even seem like he was demotivated like the townies who gave up in IDNSFFM5, so I'm reading it as scum having trouble thinking of cases to push.

I'll back off on Athena for now but I'll have a bigger post coming up later replying to him and going over some other stuff. But I don't think he would be scum with both Refa and RAD.

@Killthestory I'm a little confused, with your VCA, how many wolves do you think there are? Do you think the randa slot is scum, not sheeping via? Or are you just going with via's reads for now?

[Killthestory]

4 wolves, don't think randa slot is expressedly evil as other slots nor am i sheeping via's reads. i just wanted them out in the thread.

[Refa]

4/6

18 minutes ago, Killthestory said:

refa, reading over the game, picked it up much in a way i'd expect from a demotivated wolf. not much day presence, and his wolf bros were probably gettin on his case. needing to make reads and content, he stepped into the thread, probably skimmed, and made surface level reads. everything he's said here has been so safe compared to town him, but i read earlier i can't use meta if i don't know how ppl play as both alignments. whatever, fuck you, i'm going balls deep. his reads aren't crazy, his contents ok, and his lack of desire to play is reminiscent of my own. that's the problem. everything is ok when refa's general demeanor even shows he's a strong player. 

People keep on calling me out for surface level reads and it's super bullshit considering none of my reads have been so.  I had to reread the whole thread and I'm still getting called out on this, which is insane.

13 minutes ago, Eurykins said:

Also, the fact that RAD has not said anything nor voted at this point seems extremely bad IMO. 

I would not fully disregard Refa's claimed ability as being town-sided only, personally. Votal reveal only does so much, and it also calls into question whether the revealed votals are also liable to being changed/adjusted (what votes appear and on whom they appear) in order to throw us off. 

I agree that RAD's lack of pushes have been bad.

Don't like how you're like "Refa's role could be scum, guys" but then provide like...no insight on me getting guiltied.  Scum in this situation would definitely want to appear neutral in this situation because they know I'm town.

6 minutes ago, Conqueror said:

2/5

Okay, I trashed my previous post in light of the new information. @Refa, why would that role be obvious town? It's pretty alignment-neutral since scum have no incentive to move around votes until the very end of the day, so it's not going to catch anything. I looked over the ruleset again and I don't think hammers before deadline are even possible in anarchy. I'm wondering what the odds are of a tailor or equivalent role happening to target either you or Shinori and I don't think the odds are that great.

tbh I still kinda want to vote RAD off a cliff given he produced absolutely nothing when I think town him would at least give us something to work with. Refa, why do you think RAD is a bad vote? You've mentioned this repeatedly but the biggest reason I found for this was that he's a "consensus vote." I thought that logic for thinking the Evan wagon was bad and I think it's bad logic for thinking the RAD wagon is bad. A lot of people haven't budged on the slot because it's produced almost nothing since yesterday so we're basically on Day 1 Part 2. RAD himself has given enough excuses and avoided posting for long enough that I think this is a pretty good chance to hit scum. He didn't even seem like he was demotivated like the townies who gave up in IDNSFFM5, so I'm reading it as scum having trouble thinking of cases to push.

I'll back off on Athena for now but I'll have a bigger post coming up later replying to him and going over some other stuff. But I don't think he would be scum with both Refa and RAD.

@Killthestory I'm a little confused, with your VCA, how many wolves do you think there are? Do you think the randa slot is scum, not sheeping via? Or are you just going with via's reads for now?

I can use my role whenever (including the end of the day).  Don't really care what the odds are (although I will say that me getting tailored is something that I would do as scum), FMPOV scum either tailored me or Shinori is lying.  The latter seems far less likely to me.

Maybe a bad vote is the wrong word, but I don't know, I don't feel that confident in it.  I can see where you and SB are coming from (I agree that Randa's progression on KTS was weak and that RAD's lack of posting today is not good), but I don't see how that's stronger than what I have on Athena or even Elemina.  

But why would you vote RAD if you think that it's unlikely that I got tailored?  In what world does that make sense?

[Killthestory]

think i'm on 4 rn

for shinori's sake not voting the outted guilty is stupid and usually a misplay. please eventually consolidate there.

your read and subsequent vote on evan was bad, and while some of your reads have been good, they haven't come from a good place. a weird thought process that can read as tmi to me for you to suddenly flip near eod to a read you didn't mention much was super weird when a lot of your reads were good! your content has been very unintrusive, and it's looked meloow and easy to skim past if i wasn't reading specifically for you. just doesn't feel like you from last game.

[Eurykins]

Post 3/5

3 minutes ago, Refa said:

4/6

People keep on calling me out for surface level reads and it's super bullshit considering none of my reads have been so.  I had to reread the whole thread and I'm still getting called out on this, which is insane.

I agree that RAD's lack of pushes have been bad.

Don't like how you're like "Refa's role could be scum, guys" but then provide like...no insight on me getting guiltied.  Scum in this situation would definitely want to appear neutral in this situation because they know I'm town.

All I stated is what Conqueror basically said in his post?

17 minutes ago, Conqueror said:

@Refa, why would that role be obvious town? It's pretty alignment-neutral since scum have no incentive to move around votes until the very end of the day, so it's not going to catch anything.

Especially since what you said was:

36 minutes ago, Refa said:

3/6

^That's my role.  Should be obvious town, there's literally zero scum benefit to it existing.  I'm not going to confirm/deny any additional information about my role, so deal with it.

And the very first line (past the post count) I posted was the fact that Shinori waited until he had no posts left to state the guilty? (But the rest of his day posts aimed at you makes sense, and if he'd scanned you or caught you doing something, him using his NA on YOU to try and find out anything MAKES SENSE given that he's had issues with your slot since D1?)

Also, the latter part makes it sound like there's a trapdoor/hinge behind your role that you're not divulging purposely, even with you in the limelight under Shinori's guilty of you. Kind of doesn't make things seem any better IMO? 

> If I didn't spell it out clearly initially, I do not think your role clears or paints you in a more townie light as a result. It can be easily a role on either side, like things like Announcers or other public roles that HAVE rolled scum multiple times in the past. To me it's something "safe" to claim as part of your role, something that aids in fake claiming as your role when it's only part of an entire role slot. That, plus the willfulness to not say anything more makes me feel more sketch about your claim, and more willing to place the eggs of trust in the Shinori basket for now. 

I don't see Scum!nori pushing for a crazy ass gambit like this though, when you were already being suspected since D1. Literally makes no sense to shove himself into a 1v1 for no reason and jeopardize his status amongst the rest of the players. So I am more inclined to believe that he has a legitimate reason to claim what he has than not. 

ALSO, YOU STATE THAT I'M NEUTRAL WRT MY READ ON YOU? I've scum read you since D1, and I've stuck by it? Shinori's claim to your guilty only seals the deal for me, and your claim does nothing to change/rectify the view on your slot. 

For the record, my vote was swapped to you the moment I posted the above post as well. If you need any proof or are capable of using your role multiple times, then go ahead and reveal my vote swap. The only reason why my vote would not show up on you is if there is means to artificially place or move votes that's built into your reveal, in which case that part of the role (that you don't want to reveal) would hold more scum aspect/powers than townside.

[Shinori]

33 minutes ago, Refa said:

Even if I get lynched and he somehow doesn't die tonight, I wouldn't go after him. 

This is a weird sentence in Refa's post and I don't quite understand it.

Oh yeah by the way I have 6 posts.

Also I was gambiting, I don't have any guilty on Refa.  I wanted to see his reaction + get reactions from other people.  I really wanted SB's reaction but I think he went to bed and I don't want to leave this situation as is for too long because if people all voted Refa then left for the night to not come back for phase end this would end badly.

Overall I liked Refa's reaction and I don't want to lynch him at the moment.

34 minutes ago, Killthestory said:

via kill on wagon implies scum off wagon. that means we're not... why is this bigger. fuck it, we'll keep going. that means we're not gonna see anything more than 2 wolves on the wagon.

I don't think this is true, I don't normally think most SF people kill for reasons like this.

20 minutes ago, Conqueror said:

Okay, I trashed my previous post in light of the new information.

Shouldn't have done that.  What was in your original post?  In a phase where we have limited posts why take away content that we can read?

7 minutes ago, Refa said:

I can use my role whenever (including the end of the day).  Don't really care what the odds are (although I will say that me getting tailored is something that I would do as scum), FMPOV scum either tailored me or Shinori is lying.  The latter seems far less likely to me.

Lul well I was lying.

Okay I don't wanna lynch Refa today.  I felt scum!Refa would have just stopped posting or stopped giving information but instead he's posting more and I like that.  I have to re-evaluate my reads but sadly this is my last post and I feel I might die tonight so I can't really get out too much.  So I'm gonna post some things from my Thoughts QT that I feel may or may not help.  I don't plan to post anything extremely secretive that I feel shouldn't be revealed or anyhting though.

Otherwise I think Rad/KTS/Ice are the top suspects actually to look at at the moment.

Spoiler

Via was initially scum reading Refa but waffled on it.

Via suspect of Ice.

Via suspect of Randa/Rad.

https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php...ent&comment=5214773 Strong post by Via commenting on how we should look at Randa with how fast Evan wagon built up.

Via town reading SB/Baldrick (Not specifically stated but probably accurate, he refused to out where they actually would be placed at.)

Via apparently slightly gut town reading Refa. Outside of the one thing he has for the gut read though he waffled on how he actually felt Refa might be between demotivated town or lazy/demotivated scum.

Via doesn't think Refa is being lazy which is interesting considering his demotivated claim followed by him putting in a lot of effort when pressured by basically only me.

There's something I want to claim but I can't/shouldn't so I won't.  There is imformation in the thread though pertaining to it so maybe someone will find it later.

Bad KTS post defending ice while putting pressure on Evan.
https://serenesforest.net/forums/index.php...ent&comment=5214539

"i thought ice sage's content post was shaky and awkward but made in a way that was believeable for new town." - Quote from KTS
Is this a scum slip? As in KTS and Ice are buddies and Ice is TRYING to act like new town since he hasn't played NoC before? With others coaching him to act like newb town.

I think Rad > KTS > Ice at the moment.  Will keep up with thread though and move my vote around as need be as the phase gets closer to ending.

[Eurykins]

Post 4/5

I legitimately hate you right now, Shinori.

Fucking moving my vote back to RAD. Fuck this game.

[Killthestory]

fuck off.

 

[Baldrick]

Not interested in lynching Refa without a claim from Shinori. PEDIT: If he'd waited a bit longer he could have got a reaction from me.

JB, do you have a good reason why you're not voting where you said you would (I'm asking more to try and get into your head, your response to me re: evan gave me town vibes)

I honestly have no idea what to make of Ice. The only explanation, given his tone, is that he is ignorant of how anarchy voting works. He didn't respond to me either, which is irking me.

Refa, D1 you had a lot of reads based on initial impressions. They showed you hadn't properly read, to decide if they were sound or not. 

You had gutreads on me/SB for our randa votes, despite not having read Randa. You voted Shinori for his voting behaviour, but his thought process was fairly clear to me from reading his posts closely, and you rightly dropped him once he had reiterated. (At this point, I'm going to write you and Shinori off as thunderdoming because I have no idea why you revived that case, and his using up all his posts makes no sense at all.) Can you also explain why you would sheep JB?

[Conqueror]

3/5

Fucking hell Shinori. I don't think I've ever seen a fake cop guilty that got any useful reactions unless the targeted player was a complete noob.

1 hour ago, Shinori said:

Shouldn't have done that.  What was in your original post?  In a phase where we have limited posts why take away content that we can read?

Because this game is already painful enough to read with all the walls. After I took scum!Refa into account I pretty much had to redo my reads and rethink the gamestate, since Refa wasn't really a top scumspect for me at the time. No point in posting my outdated reads/questions after that, but you'll get a rehashed version in this post now that you've retracted.

1 hour ago, Refa said:

But why would you vote RAD if you think that it's unlikely that I got tailored?  In what world does that make sense?

Unlikely doesn't mean 0%, so the possibility was still there. I've been thinking of the RAD slot as scum since the start of the day and increasingly so as the day went on, so I wanted to lynch there even with the guilty on the table. I've done similar things before, since I've been burned by the role game one too many times.

In any case my Refa read is pretty much null again. Disagree with Shinori that a scum!Refa in this situation would just roll over and die instead of attempting to make another wagon, but then again Shinori has probably played with Refa more. I don't really think he's scum though?

 

Anyway, with RAD scum becoming more and more likely in my eyes, I was thinking about what his potential scumbuddies would do in this case. There's no real counterwagon and RAD isn't attempting to even defend himself, which tells me that if RAD is scum, his scumbuddies are almost certainly bussing him for cred. That's what confused me so much about Refa being scum - it didn't make sense with a suicidal RAD!scum unless Refa wanted to play the "so wrong I can only be town" route.

 @Ice Sage Can you explain how you've evolved on your RAD read? Yesterday, you said this.

On 5/13/2018 at 8:29 AM, Ice Sage said:

Randa: He is being defensive a lot, but at the same time he was being ganged up on. I can see him being defensive as scum, but my gut feeling just doesn't think so yet.

But today we have this.

7 hours ago, Ice Sage said:

4. RAD is one of my scumreads now. Refa is leaning there, but i need to see more. Haven't read him fully. I still don't think SB is scum, and Shinori  Hasn;t done anything suspicious imo.

RAD/Randa is the one I think the most that is scum. Their posts in D1 were extremely defensive like others said, but i didn't want to vote him first because i wanted to give the benefit of the doubt. That went really bad now that we know what happened. we lost Via and Evan and I'll take the blame on it since at the time i thought evan was really scummy.

My gut feeling was wrong and i don't want to make the same mistake again

##Vote: RAD

I'm not following why you've changed to thinking RAD is scum. Do you think being defensive is scummy? You wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt yesterday, so what changed? You say that the Evan lynch went badly and we lost Via, but what does that have to do with Randa's alignment? I think the reason why this switch is so jarring to me is that I can't see why your opinion on RAD/Randa changed.  If you're saying your gut feeling yesterday was wrong, then why do you think your gut feeling today is right?

This post is also weird to me because your other top scumspects are Refa and Elemina, but your only stated reasons seem to be because they voted on the Evan wagon. How do their votes differ from your vote on the Evan wagon such that it makes them scummy in your eyes? I'd think that since their votes were similar to yours, you'd try to differentiate a little more than you have, especially if you're town here.

 

6 hours ago, Shinori said:

For people voting/scum reading Athena tell me how/why Athena is scum with Rad/Randa?  This is something that is fairly consistent amongst most people who are scum reading Athena, most of them are also scum reading Randa, outside of the obviously scum Refa.  He was one of the first people on that wagon and has been pushing it consistently.  Do you think this is ICBINSFMM again?  Are we thinking scum is just hard bussing randomly?  Especially seeing as Athena didn't openly start hard bussing until later in the game and not right out the gate.

I don't know why people think scum can't bus. Some scum bus right out of the game. Some don't. But it happens. So let me point out why I think Randa and Athena could be potential scumbuddies. Look at how the start of D1 panned out. Athena made a jokevote on Randa in RVS, before Randa pretty much imploded and started active lurking in the thread. In that situation, I could easily see why scum!Athena would keep his vote on scum!Randa. Randa never got better so there wasn't really a good opportunity for Athena to hop off. I think it's interesting that Randa never really talked about or to athena (except in a side comment to mention SB's vote on him) despite athena voting him for most of the day, and the two of them never really engaged each other despite Randa quotestriping half the people in the thread (the exception would be right before Randa replaced out, when Athena tried to ask him a question). But this is all hypotheticals and I don't like bringing up scumpairings without flipped scum since they're notoriously unreliable. It's definitely not the impossible thing you're making it out to be though.

Anyway, looking through the ISO at other stuff, there's some weird prioritizing in Athena's lynch choices, especially concerning Ice Sage. Feels like he's trying to have his cake and eat it too. For example, this was his Ice Sage stance on D2:

On 5/13/2018 at 3:32 PM, athena_57 said:

Okay, my stance on Ice. I dislike his posts and am scumreading him (albeit less than Randa). The thing is, he reminds me a lot of Clarinets in EO3 and D1 Satsuma in IDNSFMM5, two townies I pushed as scum. I can see him being the same as those two and just a newer, lost townie. Therefore, as long as I have a substantial scumread (Randa), I'm leaving him alone.

On 5/14/2018 at 3:05 AM, athena_57 said:

I prefer RAD over Evan, because I can't help but feel Evan's wagon is a scumfueled counterwagon to save RAD. Assuming this scenario, Ice Sage looks worse as well. If Evan is town, I'd say both RAD and Ice Sage are nearly confirmed scum.

Like what the fuck is this last sentence? @athena_57 I can understand thinking Randa is scum, but please tell me how Ice Sage would be nearly confirmed scum with the Evan town flip.

This by itself isn't that bad since I could see this kind of overconfidence coming from town, but combined with his D3 posts, I really dislike how easily athena capitulated on this read:

On 5/15/2018 at 2:13 PM, athena_57 said:

I also want to make sure Ice isn't just lost town, so I prefer voting elsewhere as long as we still have solid lynch candidates.

9 hours ago, athena_57 said:

All these comments on Ice Sage being newbtown (the coaching part) leave me doubting my scumread even more, to the point where I don't think I'd lynch there until we have a clearer picture.

I don't think this sudden backing off reads genuine. There's a lot of equivocation here that is weird coming from you since you're so sure about most other people. You've mentioned the possibility of Ice Sage being newbtown numerous times already. I don't see what's so convincing about other people calling him newbtown that suddenly you don't want to lynch him anymore when you were so sure he was scum yesterday. What's so convincing about the coaching thing? Could you explain why and how you changed your mind here when the scenario your predicted (Evan flipping town) turned out to be exactly correct?

In response to Athena's other posts:

18 hours ago, athena_57 said:

This is precisely my point. I'm saying RAD has his work cut out for him. It's going to take a lot to move me elsewhere, but that doesn't mean I'm locking my vote.

How do you expect my case to evolve when Randa flaked? Did you read everyone's posts one person after another by any chance and miss this? My case kept evolving, or rather being reinforced, until Randa stopped posting and left. The reason I think the defusing is scummy, is that I'd find it very co-incidental two townies drop the scumread at the same time, whereas I feel scum would dislike being in a 1v1 with someone who's starting to be townread by a number of people. Randa was very survival-focused and I could see them doing this in order to drop one person attacking them by leaving them alone. (Shinori kept attacking them, but that doesn't change this could've been their intention)

I'm not piggybacking his logic, I was saying the same thing on day 1. Bolded I agree with, which is why I'm voting RAD and not someone else on the wagon. I explicitly stated this in my first post of the day.

- Okay, fine.

- That's not what I mean. Lemme quote you your evolution on Randa.

Quote

My Randa vote was placed as a RVS vote, but it's staying there as a real vote. The "I'm dumb"-statements and flailing around really rub me the wrong way.

Really dislike Randa's catch-up post was only about defending themselves.

If the only redeeming feature for Randa is that one post, I don't see why you have Shinori over them. Most of Randa's stuff has been mediocre/bad imo, one decent post isn't going to fix that.

There's no real defending Randa if all the attacks are factually correct statements (about them being focused on self-preservation), so diverting the attention is in my eyes the only option a scumbuddy wanting to save them has.

You were voting Shinori before this post. You mention him nowhere in this post. And now he's leaning town? Please explain where the change of heart came from, because for me it seems like you're attempting to defuse this 1v1 now that Shinori's voted someone else.

- This is your entire case on Randa, including your last question to him. I'm not including all the junk about Evan being a counterwagon to scum Randa because it doesn't actually tell me why you think Randa is scum. This is why I said your case didn't evolve. Your case on Randa was as barebones as can be - bad posting, flailing, defending themselves. Fair enough case by itself, but I don't see any critical thought here, any real questioning or analysis of Randa's actions until the last post. In fact, when I'm reading through your ISO, you put a lot more effort into your reads on non-Randa people. I see more posts chastising people for not voting Randa than posts explaining why Randa is scum. The factually correct attacks on Randa you mention were all made by other people. All you had to offer was one-liners. Go ahead and quote me your case on him if you think I'm misrepping you. I don't think I am.

- The bolded thing is not really my issue with you. My issue is how you've approached the Randa wagon since D1 with a level of conviction and surety I don't think is possible for an uninformed townie. Either you're the next Makaze, or you know more about Randa's alignment than you're letting on.

 

Despite all this, I'm still up for lynching RAD for the reasons I mentioned in my previous post, plus there's a world where I'm completely wrong about Athena and he's just a God of Mafia as per his name. I'll move to RAD when the day ends but at this point I think RAD is going to be lynched no matter what anyway.

You'll notice that a lot of this post is made with the assumption RAD is scum. Well, if RAD is town then we're boned because of the number of presumed townies who have been focusing on that slot since D1. But I really really don't think that's the case here.

[Bluedoom]

warning that someone broke the post count,  I won't take action this time but please play according to the rules. 

[Athena_57]

12 hours ago, Bartozio said:

Response to Athena response to Conq

You want to lynch RAD first, sure, but you're still saying we should at the very least lynch on the Evan wagon. Not that we should lynch RAD and nobody else because he's confirmed scum in your eyes, not that we should definetly lynch in a pool of a few people you find really scummy who all happen to be on the wagon.

This mean you prioritize the wagon and it's formation, not the actual people on it (apart from RAD I guess), which I explained above is bad. This is my main problem with your slot at the moment, and what mostly caught my eye in Conq's case. I do not think you responded accurately to this point at all.

 

I don't dissagree with the Randa/RAD slot being scummy (which should be obvious from my vote being on them at the end of the day and my first post mentioning it). I do disagree with how scummy the rest of the wagon is. Scum can luck out sometimes, and I think Randa mostly lucked out with how bad Evan played.

If a bunch of people on the wagon look scummy individually, push them and get them lynched. Convince me of their individual scumminess. That's not a reason as to why everyone else on that wagon should be lynchpriority over people not on it.

It feels to me like you're trying to create reasons to not look at other people and push people on the wagon without reasons other then Rad being scum.

If scum didn't hammer on it, it means townies decided on their own to lynch Evan over Rad though?

You're saying scum wasn't willing to risk much, but jumping onto a counterwagon with bad reasoning is pretty risky. If you had succeeded in getting people to lynch Rad, they'd get called out for it. As I said before, I think there were enough reasons to actually make up a good reason to jump on the Evan wagon. Scum worries about how they look, so they'll put more effort into making their jump look good.

I could very easily see you having planned on bussing RAD and being to stuck to switch and just rolling with it for the cred now. especially if the other scum was also voting elsewhere. Even without that, focusing on the whole wagon instead of the people you find scummy there reads like a scum agenda to me.

You're trying to make it seem like I want everyone on the Evan wagon to drop dead. That's not what I'm saying, I'm saying we should look for scum on the Evan wagon, ESPECIALLY the people who are individually scummy. Not sure whether you're misinterpreting me or trying to shade me for no real reason.

Bolded 1 - What does this line mean? I'm not following.
Bolded 2 - Bullshit. I've mentioned stuff on both Refa and Ice Sage I dislike about them individually.
Bolded 3 - See post 2/6 where I mention some stuff on SB. Also, I'm pushing you.
Bolded 4 - No u. This is serious by the way.

 

12 hours ago, Refa said:

I don't like Athena being like "yeah, my joke RVS votes totally had a purpose" in his first post RVS post because it feels...faked, I didn't get that impression from their interaction at all.  He never pushes anything, just parks his vote on Randa and makes townreads/asks questions that don't go anywhere.  His play strongly reminds me of the last game, where he just went with the consensus scumreads and didn't make a strong effort to push elsewhere.  I had Shinori over Randa because one of them is scum and one of them is town. =)  Really don't like the waffling on me, he continuously says "I can see Refa doing this as town" despite scumreading me.  Hey, maybe that's because...I am town.  Duh.  Ice read later on doesn't do much for me, because he's voting Ice for bad play over scum play.  SB makes a good point here that I'd sheep reading Athena's progression on his reads.  First post today felt like autopiloting me, him getting mad at SB's case on him felt weird to me, like he was mad at SB being right for the wrong reasons.

More on Refa later, just wanted to reply to his stuff on me.
On RVS - Why do you think I explicitly stated it was unreliable and why asked SB for his opinion? I never claimed it gave me anything more than a mild townread.
On voteparking - First of all, I disagree my questions went nowhere. Secondly, I hate to play the 'new player'-card, but you have to realize I have zero experience of being a townie and therefore am learning on the go on how to generate discussions. Expecting me to 'lead' discussions is, whilst flattering, unreasonable.
On waffling - That was mostly during the stage I was nullreading you and was weighing the points. Is it wrong my opinion isn't black/white but that I find both good and bad things?
On progression - I already explained this. Why aren't you talking about my reply?

 

3 hours ago, Conqueror said:

Anyway, looking through the ISO at other stuff, there's some weird prioritizing in Athena's lynch choices, especially concerning Ice Sage. Feels like he's trying to have his cake and eat it too. For example, this was his Ice Sage stance on D2:

<If Evan is town, I'd say both RAD and Ice Sage are nearly confirmed scum. -my sentence Conq's referring to>

Like what the fuck is this last sentence? @athena_57 I can understand thinking Randa is scum, but please tell me how Ice Sage would be nearly confirmed scum with the Evan town flip.

This by itself isn't that bad since I could see this kind of overconfidence coming from town, but combined with his D3 posts, I really dislike how easily athena capitulated on this read:

I don't think this sudden backing off reads genuine. There's a lot of equivocation here that is weird coming from you since you're so sure about most other people. You've mentioned the possibility of Ice Sage being newbtown numerous times already. I don't see what's so convincing about other people calling him newbtown that suddenly you don't want to lynch him anymore when you were so sure he was scum yesterday. What's so convincing about the coaching thing? Could you explain why and how you changed your mind here when the scenario your predicted (Evan flipping town) turned out to be exactly correct?

At the time, I was suffering a bit from tunnel vision/overconfidence, yes. The vote felt like an easy sheep on someone who couldn't reply and who was starting to get wagoned. It's like the easiest vote you can make as scum. Let's say Ice is scum, he hasn't done anything this game and sees people are talking shit over the inactives. Another inactive he knows is town is just starting to wagoned. Considering Ice clearly wasn't interested in attacking people, this is for sure the person they'd vote. I expect town!Ice to be a little less lazy and taking a bit more care in selecting the person they vote. I'm not saying this vote can't come from town!Ice, just that's it's more likely to come from scum!Ice.
I'll admit that at the time I was a lot harder on this and neglected the possibility of town!Ice voting there. I still dislike the vote, but 'confirmed scum' was definitely an overstatement. The 'sudden' backing off you mention is because during N1 there was a 24 hours break in between, where I took a little more time to think about him.

Quote

In response to Athena's other posts:

- Okay, fine.

- That's not what I mean. Lemme quote you your evolution on Randa.
<my stuff>

- This is your entire case on Randa, including your last question to him. I'm not including all the junk about Evan being a counterwagon to scum Randa because it doesn't actually tell me why you think Randa is scum. This is why I said your case didn't evolve. Your case on Randa was as barebones as can be - bad posting, flailing, defending themselves. Fair enough case by itself, but I don't see any critical thought here, any real questioning or analysis of Randa's actions until the last post. In fact, when I'm reading through your ISO, you put a lot more effort into your reads on non-Randa people. I see more posts chastising people for not voting Randa than posts explaining why Randa is scum. The factually correct attacks on Randa you mention were all made by other people. All you had to offer was one-liners. Go ahead and quote me your case on him if you think I'm misrepping you. I don't think I am.

- The bolded thing is not really my issue with you. My issue is how you've approached the Randa wagon since D1 with a level of conviction and surety I don't think is possible for an uninformed townie. Either you're the next Makaze, or you know more about Randa's alignment than you're letting on.

I don't think you can exclude the part about the counterwagon, because the speed it developed with was an actual reason that made me think there was scum involvement, and thus another reason to scumread Randa.
You're not misrepping me though, I agree that what you quoted and the counterwagon-stuff was basically everything I said. The reason I couldn't question their actions, was because there were no actions. All he was doing was defending himself, aside from the KTS-vote, which I admittedly didn't comment on. The reason I didn't talk about that was because I didn't actually have anything to say about it. His reason for voting was true (KTS didn't provide reasoning) and even if I myself don't think that's a reason to scumread him, I wasn't going to defend KTS over it either.

What you're saying about my approach isn't wrong, I distinctly remember being pissed there wasn't anything I could really question. There was some stuff that could be questioned, but that was already being done by a bunch of other people and I'm not going to ask the exact same questions in order to appear active/involved/whatever. On the level of conviction, I was indeed that convinced. A combination of a gut feeling stronger than what I had on anyone, and the extremely defensive/passive play for me resulted in a read that would not disappear unless I saw good cases from him. I didn't, and thus I remained convinced.

Your case on me is miles better than the dirt-throwing by Refa/Bartozio and I like your analysis, it shows you actually bothered to dissect my posts, even if it leads you to the wrong conclusion. Putting Conqueror in townread pile.

Okay, Refa stuff.

12 hours ago, Refa said:

Shinori bothers me because his D1 case was casing me off of RVS actions ("Sheeping SB on a baseless case during RVS is scum-intent of just letting someone else do the work as you act like you're doing something." Really don't like this, making my RVS vote out to be some sort of scum master plan) and not really bothering to reevaluate my slot (yeah, he says I chainsaw defended Randa later on but that's such a buzzword case lmao, doesn't even explain the scum intent behind doing that until I call him out on it).  Also sorry to bring this up again but he has an entire post ED1 laying into Randa and votes me instead (despite me not answering his question from earlier AND his question not implying a scum read on me, so voting me based on that is bad).  His explanation (Randa called him out on the same thing) doesn't do it for me either.  Reading back, his primary issue behind his initial Randa vote being that Randa was faking content is...not good.  There's no reason that Scum!Randa couldn't drop a vote on you earlier on, and he doesn't explain what content of Randa's is faked.  In general, I think saying someone is faking content/activity is a bad reason to scumread someone because it avoids meaningful analysis on the slot.  His D2 case is casing me off of voting Evan over Randa (SB already mentioned why it's bad that he voted Randa over me; people should be sheeping off of this point alone because there's no way in hell Town!Shinori has that thought process but votes me) and not really bothering to have a better scumread on me.  He also dismisses my other content for the most part (besides the portions concerning him lol, and I'm the one called out for OMGUS priceless), but if I'm scum surely that would be telling.  I didn't read SB's explanation of Randa backpedaling, but it wouldn't have changed my vote anyways.  Also calling me out for not following up on an Evan question that Evan never adequately responded too, hmmm...

Not only do I disagree with his case, mostly the italic parts, this entire block of text is pinging me hard. Bolded lines especially are giving me really bad vibes. Saying the chainsaw thing is a buzzword case isn't a proper defense. If I had to be specific about what pings me about it, it's the "lmao, lol, priceless"-stuff, which reads to me like it doesn't belong AT ALL in his thought pattern but is just added there to try and tone down the hostility.

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Randa being a consensus vote bothers the hell out of me.  I like the slot better on a reread because the progression on his Shinori case is good, with the only thing sticking out to me being his self deprecation.  It also helps that all of the cases harp on minor points or just straight up ignore what the slot is actually contributing.  I agree that RAD needs to post more substantial content (disagree with Conq that he'd post "assume I'm town, how does this change your read on Refa" as scum though), but the number of people who went from last phase to this phase going "yeah, Randa's slot is still scum" is crazy.   @Conqueror @SB. You guys seem town and have cases on this slot that I don't think are in bad faith.  Convince me that I'm wrong here, because I would not vote this slot at this point.

LOL at Randa/RAD defense, I have no fucking idea how you can call this slot contributing properly, ignore the speed of the Evan wagon hinting at scum, ignore RAD not real-time posting but deciding to build a wall and ignore RAD flaking completely afterwards. RAD is just a slot that has to go, defending it is crazy imo unless RAD stops flaking and posts some stellar content.

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Don't like how one of Elemina's reasons for voting me is factually wrong (I did analyze Randa in the same post where I had defined scumreads on other slots), and dismissing my Shinori read as OMGUS instead of really bothering to analyze it.  Also the most likely to be scum on Evan's wagon (although my opinion is that scum wagoned RAD and the counterwagon was town driven, I do find it unlikely that there'd be a 7 person purely town wagon), would sheep JB's read here.

"Would sheep JB's read here"- even when JB's read only applies when RAD is scum? Please explain.

 

As of now, I still feel RAD just needs to be lynched, for reasons stated above. Randa was scummy and RAD just flaked. I don't think I vote anyone else today tbh.

Other scumreads include Refa, Bartozio and to a lesser extent Elemina(sheeping JB), KTS and Ice.

I might try to build a Bartozio case later today or else during night 2. I need to reread him and also need to make sure I'm not just subconsciously OMGUS-ing him. I don't think I am and am reasonably sure of my read, but I want to make sure I calm down and take a step back. I'm thinking there was probably a bussing scum member on the RAD wagon (assuming RAD's scum, which I am), and whilst it could be Eury, I don't think it's Shinori or Baldrick.

Shinori, Baldrick, Conqueror and to a lesser extent Jaybee are town. Mixed feelings on SB, null/slight townlean, Eury is still null.

[SB.]

@Shinori I would not have bought into the reaction test to begin with so doing it while you were asleep is probably for the best best. I’m not explaining why on this but I hope you were playing up your suspicions because I don’t want to explain why I don’t agree.

I don’t like the stances Eury has taken today. It feels like she’s pushing easy inconsistencies (the votes not being there) which could be easily explained away (by being lazy). This is especially weird when you consider it under the lens of scum!Refa, who had just been guiltied, who would make sure his buddies were looking good on votals before revealing.

@Eurykins do you think that scum!Refa would have tried something like this to save his own skin if it would damn his buddies (especially with the guilty in mind)? I also feel like Eury was kind of hesitant to acknowledge the guilty for no real reason, but wasn’t willing to call out Refa as town either. Even when confronted on this I don’t think she ever explicitly calls Refa scummy, just that it’s “unlikely for Shinori to lie”. This isn’t really explainable imo because Eury by her own admission has been scumreading Refa so it’s especially weird. Overall her push comes across more like a rolefish than pushing a genuine scumread to me.

@Baldrick why did you need Shinori to claim? I don’t understand your logic here unless you had some very strong reads that it conflicted with (that I don’t remember).

@Conqueror what games burned you for lynching a guilty? Wanting RAD dead anyway is a weird stance and I want to get where you were coming from here. What do you think of Eury? You’re making me realise that I need to reread Athena properly when I’m back at my comp but I’m uh hesitant to sheep your case as is even if it seems solid because it’s kind of conflicting with my current read and I th

I still think RAD needs to die today to make sense of Day 1 and if we leave it any later we’re kind of fucked if he flips town.

RAD > Eury > Bartozio rn, I think I have some time to get rereading in but I want to get my workload under control today and I’m not really sure when phase end is?

@Magnificence Incarnate pls time check. I think that I still have posts left so I’ll try and be back with something before then.